AK Latest, Horse Racing

By Tony Calvin - 10 September 2026

TONY CALVIN: THOUGHTS on today’s five Doncaster ITV races, with the usual stats/info section

1.15pm – 33/1 Leucothea makes great appeal despite a couple of doubts

Bayside and Sexy Chick are NRs.

It is now good to soft, good in places, as of Wednesday morning.

A 12-runner 6f117d nursery and not a race I had a strong initial betting opinion in, but Leucothea has prospects, though I am not sure being drawn one is ideal.

In fact, that worries me, even if there is plenty of other pace around her and fancied horses, too.

It looks like Richard Hannon is beginning to come out of a barren spell, even if his three Tuesday runners, including a 6/4 poke, didn’t pull up any trees  – he broke a three-week winnerless spell last Friday – and his Haatem won a 424k Grade 3 pot in Keeneland on Monday night (though he clearly wasn’t hands on there).

Anyway, you have to forgive his filly a modest run in a valuable sales race at Newmarket last time, but she was a 66s poke there against much higher-rated horses – the winner was rated 102 and she is a mere 73 – and it was the July course, and we all know how easy to put a line through the form at that track.

Nottingham run gives her a big chance – well, a bigger one than 33s suggests

She had earlier finished a neck second to Mobadir on good to firm at Nottingham off a 2lb higher mark, and the form of that race is working very well.

The winner followed up at Newbury and is now rated 11lb higher, while the third is now 6lb higher after two narrow defeats. And the fourth has won twice since and has gone up 10lb.

That race was run in a decent time for the grade, too.

And if the Thursday forecast rain (amounts are changing) arrives a touch earlier than expected than that would be fine for this ground-versatile filly. As of Wednesday morning, the Thursday rain seems to have disappeared.

The 25s and 22s early morning on Tuesday was highly enticing (available as at 11.55am on Tuesday when this preview went live) but that was with one bookmaking organisation and early stakes will be limited.

So will later ones too, probably…

Market is dismissing her for some reason

That said, the next firm up went 25s about her, too. And the next was 28s (they offer four places too)  – then that was trumped by 33s.

Clearly I am missing something…

She clearly lacks the sexiness of one of the lightly-raced nursery debutants/debutantes like the already-punted 9/4 favourite Speed Of Sound and Art Of Life, but her chance is there for all to see on that Nottingham run .

And the early market seems blind to it.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.27am):  Not a great deal of change but Art Of Life is currently weak, out to 9s.

 

1.50pm – 2/1 Night In Vegas could pay for a year there if he wins another huge pot

Juvenile races are responsible for three of Thursday’s five ITV races and it is over 200k to the winner of this sales race, so it is a little surprising that Aidan O’Brien didn’t fire any of his five-day bullets at this.

If he is bothered by the prospect of winning the UK trainers’ title, that is.

Andrew Balding may be more concerned by that eventuality and he runs The Dancing Pirate and plenty clearly think there is a far better horse lurking in there than he has been able to show so far, as he was smashed off the boards when disappointing at Goodwood and he was again sent off a well-backed 4s chance at York last time.

The first-time cheekpieces (retained here) didn’t stop him throwing away his winning chance when veering badly left and right close home there and he was still only beaten under a length.

You do get the impression that he is better than a 86-rated horse and double-figure prices might lure punters again – but he will need to be as he has to give 7lb to the 102-rated Night In Vegas here.

Richmond Stakes third Night In Vegas is clearly the one to beat at these weights and he went on to cop nearly 172 bags when beating Zizazig Ah in one of these at Newmarket last time.

Seven Nations Army runs in first-time cheekpieces here for Joseph O’Brien (surprisingly modest record with this angle – see below) and he is second-best in at the weights here.

It is little surprise then that Night In Vegas is the clear early favourite (I’ve seen early prices ranging from 11/8 to 2s), with Seven Nations Army next in at 13/2, closely followed by Zizazig Ah.

I’ll doubt if I’ll be having a bet in this.

The 2s was quickly taken by the way. He is now 11/8 tops as at 4pm on Wednesday.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.30am):  Night In Vegas has hardened into 6/5, but his exchange price hasn’t really changed.  God Given Talent is strongest of the rest; 12s yesterday and into a general 7s.

Seven Nation Army, tops at 7s at one point yesterday, is very weak at the moment. 17.5 on Betfair and 10s fixed-odds.

 

2.25pm – 7/1 Bourbon Blues looks very much on the big side

I was surprised to see Bourbon Blues open up as big as 13/2 on Tuesday, as I thought the booking of Ryan Moore would crush the price.

But it hasn’t – he is now 7s in fact, as of Wednesday morning – and the horse seems to have excellent claims in what is admittedly a competitive 1m2f handicap.

The ground-versatile 3yo, Group-placed at two, comes here after two cracking efforts in defeat at big Festivals at Goodwood and York – and he has only been raised 1lb for them.

He was also consistently denied room to properly stretch his legs late on at York last time, but for which he would have gone closer than a 1 1/2 length third of 20, and I wouldn’t lay him at 5s myself, and there is plenty of 11/2 about as well as 6s.

The early 13/2 and 6s, four places, looks an absolutely corking each-way bet.

In fact, he is available at 6s in two places as this goes live at 1.05pm, and 13/2 is still available at 5.15pm.

And he is now 7s.

He may not be a hardened, multiple winner but a reproduction of his last two runs surely sees him in the top four here at the very least, even if he lacks the sexiness and the handicap upside of a King Of Earth, Knights Charge or Besieged.

I am pretty sweet on his chances.

Easterby stable form points to the chances of 9s Stoneacre Donny

You have to give recent winner Stoneacre Donny a shout-out though, as I have never seen the Tim Easterby yard in better form.

The horse did it really well at York on Sunday and I imagine the handicapper could raise him as much as the 6lb penalty he runs under here.

The 9s about him could be worth a small tickle, too.

Pace

By the way, the only pace in the race I could see was Sintra.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.33am): Early days obviously but Knights Charge heads the market at 7/2, with Bourbon Blues into 5s. The rest are currently static/weakish.

 

3pm – This 6/1 chance could Land this Prize

Ryka is a NR , so Cameo could be the only possible pace angle in here.

Fairy Glen has also come out , which is big news – as we are down to seven and each-way betting 1,2.

The first Group 2 of the day, the 3yo+ 1m6f115yd Park Hill Stakes for fillies and mares, and not a race that initially had me itching for a bet.

What I will say is that there are a good, early spread of prices, and some differences of opinion – if you can get on.

Prizeland is available at a general 6s though (most firms are 6s), and I thought that was a very fair each-way price.

She absolutely bolted up over 1m4f at York last time, and her run-style and pedigree gives you plenty of encouragement she will stay this extra 2f – and maybe even relish it.

She is a half-sister to a 2m2f winner who stayed 2m4f, and a full sister to 1m6f winner and Derby runner-up Hoo Ya Mal.

Oisin Murphy was talking about the Group 1 Ascot Fillies and Mares’ in the immediate aftermath of that victory.

And, as a 3yo, she gets a very handy 9lb from the older horses here.

Cameo, who actually beat Prizeland silly in the Lingfield Oaks trial, is the only other 3yo in here but it is clear what filly has progressed the most since May, and Andrew Balding’s charge is now rated 7lb the superior.

I may have a few quid on her each-way at 6s actually; I really warmed to her win and place claims.

That went live at 1.45pm on Tuesday.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.35am):  Prizeland is probably the strongest of the early moves. A general 6s on Tuesday, she is now a tight 3s.

 

3.35pm – Dutching this Irish pair could be the way to go

The fillies Group 2, the 1m May Hill Stakes, has attracted a pretty rum bunch of UK participants for the grade – the 97-rated Scommessa Sicura is the best of them going into the race – but that hasn’t stopped Godolphin’s Musical Times heading the betting at 7/4 (and there is only one bit of that 7/4 remaining as at 4pm on Wednesday).

I can’t have her at all at that price, for all she is clearly all about potential and this clearly is not a deep race for a Group 2. She actually beat Scommessa Sicura a neck on her debut in June though (the Balding filly was having her third start there).

I suspect the Irish will be winning this, and dutching Ballyskeagh and Sea Of Rain at 11/2 in a place or a general 5s and 13/2 (available in two places) respectively could be the way to go here.

They are hardly Group 2 material yet either, being rated 99 and 101, but they both bring some decent time credentials to the party as well as solid form – as they should as Sea Of Rain beat Ballyskeagh by 3/4 length in a Group 3 at the Curragh last time.

But I haven’t had a bet yet, and may not. I have over 48 hours to ponder, as this piece went live at 2.20pm on Tuesday.

I had to go up early by necessity, sorry.

I’ve decided to sit this out.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.37am): No change here that I could see.

 

 

BEST BETS

Leucothea at 33s and 28s each way in 1.15pm (get best place terms you can)

Bourbon Blues at 13/2 or 6/1 each way in 2.25pm (get best place terms you can) – now 7s in three places as of Wednesday morning

Prizeland at 6/1 each way in 3pm (one firm are 1/4 the odds; 6 is pretty much across the board)

(I have had an each-way double in Bourbon Blues and Prizeland, too)

 

STATS/INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

DONCASTER 

GOING :  Good to soft, good in places

“Ground hasn’t moved much in the last 3 days. Small chance of some dry back but likely to remain comfortably easy side of GOOD.”

GOING STICK : 6.1, Thursday 7.45am

Soil Moisture 40.6%

Rails: Round Course – 3yds off innermost line. Additional distances confirmed to all races of 1m 2f and further.

  • Race 3: Race distance is now +19y to 1m 2f 62y

  • Race 4: Race distance is now +9y to 1m 6f 124y

  • Race 8: Race distance is now +19y to 1m 3f 216y

Stalls: Straight – Centre Round – Inner

THURSDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry yesterday Today – mainly dry with sunny spells through the day. Chance of some showers early evening 20C Tomorrow – mainly dry with sunny spells, 21C Saturday – mainly dry with sunny spells, chance of showers approx midday, 21C Sunday – mainly dry with some sunny spells, 21C Gentle breeze throughout

Watering: We have not watered the track since the 18th August – this was to aid recovery from our last meeting on the 15th August

Weather (7.21am Thursday):  Dry during racing

 

2.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

 

Charlie Fellowes; cheekpieces; Ongombo, 1.50pm; 11-91 (12%)  -4.63 pts at SP

Richard Hannon blinkers; A Bear Affair, 1.50pm; 59-559 (11%) -6.40 pts at SP

Joseph O’Brien cheekpieces; Seven Nation Army, 1.50pm; (just flat) 29-269 (10%) -103.53 pts at SP

Sir Mark Prescott cheekpieces; Consent, 3pm; 45-205 (22%) +15.57 pts at SP

Owen Burrows hood; Waardah, 3pm; 1-23 (4%) -20.38 pts at SP

 

 

3.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

 

1.15pm Doncaster: Art Of Life (drawn 9), Speed Of Sound (5), Kodi Bear Light (6), Downonmainstreet (4), Roosike (13), Leucothea (1), Wondervision (2) – Bayside and Sexy Chick are NRs

1.50pm Doncaster: Zigazig Ah (14), Satellite Of Love (7), Stardom Glory (3) , Dorigo (4), Secret Society (8)

2.25pm Doncaster: Sintra (8)

3pm Doncaster: Cameo (9) – Ryka and Fairy Glen are NRs

3.35pm Doncaster: Martinet (10), Musical Times (3), Scommessa Sicura (11), Sea Of Rain (4), Tall Trees (2), Tie A Navyribbon (5)

 

4.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed ; form going into Thursday)

Good: Karl Burke (very good – and 14/1 and 3-1 winners on Wednesday), Richard Spencer, Charlie Appleby (very good), Marco Botti, William Haggas, Brian Meehan, Harry Charlton (a beaten 1-33 chance aside!), John and Thady Gosden (very good),  Andrew Balding (treble on Tuesday), Tim Easterby (excellent for him even before a treble on Tuesday – and a double on Wednesday too at 4s and 10-3; huge number of runners, granted), Sir Mark Prescott, David Simcock

Fair: Ed Walker (winner on Tuesday), Kevin Ryan (fair/good), Eve Johnson Houghton, Richard Hughes, Richard Hannon (improving),  Michael Bell, Jack Channon, Rod Millman , Aidan O’Brien, Ed Bethell, George Boughey, Charlie Fellowes (more winners would be welcome, though), Joseph O’Brien, Charles Hills,  Alan King, Roger Varian, Johnny Murtagh, David O’Meara, Jennie Candlish (10-11 Bangor winner on Tuesday and a Sedgefield winner on Wednesday), Owen Burrows (fair-good), Jim Bolger (small sample)

Moderate (well they were before recent winners…): Clive Cox (11-2 winner on Tuesday), Simon and Ed Crisford (8-11 winner on Tuesday, and 1-6 and 6-5 scorers on Wednesday), Adrian Keatley (11-1 winner on Friday), Ivan Furtado (9-2 winner on Wednesday), Hugo Palmer

Don’t know: William Stone (no recent runners – but a very decent 8 from 52 in 2026)