By Tony Calvin - 11 March 2025
We are on hold with the ground update – did they water last night? – as it was -2 overnight and the course report “it will be re-assessed when the grass frost lifts”.
Some people have posted videos on X of it snowing lightly nearby this morning.
Actually, some of those are now showing fairly heavy snowfall, including at the track itself.
Memories of The Thinker spring to mind.
I can’t imagine they did water last night, with the frost forecast.
So it could be shades of Exeter in the 80s.
Hard anyone?
The stick reading is now 5.1 as at 9am on Wednesday.
It has gone from 6.4 to 6.1 to 5.5 to 5.1 in the last six days.
The markets look to be pretty static at this very early stage once again, but we have a few movers.
Final Demand is easily winning the battle for favouritism in the opener at 1.20pm at the moment. He is [13.8], with The New Lion out to [3/1].
But The Yellow Clay has stormed into [10/3] as the morning has progressed.
Ballyburn is very strong in the Browns at 2pm. He is now just a best-priced [4/6] and as short as [4/7]. That [4/6] may be coming under pressure.
In the 2.40pm, outside of the favourites, Comfort Zone seems strong enough at a best-priced 9s. Bunting is very weak on Betfair and is trading 10/1+.
Be Aware is now as low as 4s, though.
We don’t really care about the Cross Country at 3.20pm, do we? (just 167k matched on the exchange at 9.37am)
Stumptown is the favourite at [3/1] here, with Galvin at [7/2].
Pretty much as you were in the Champion Chase at 4pm. Jonbon is best at [10/11] with AKBets and others.
At the top end of the market, Jazzy Matty is the strongest in the betting in the Grand Annual at 4.40pm, now best at 7s. Not a major move, though.
There were nibbles around for Traprain Law at much bigger prices yesterday, and the move for Primoz has continued into 12s (is as low as 8s).
In the last, there is not much going on but Bambino Flyer, [13/2] yesterday, is into [9/2].
The Time Bandits have spoken.
——-
At the time of publishing this, I don’t know how the ground is going to ride, with Monday’s rain (only 3.5mm) on top of unspecified watering from last Thursday.
There has been talk of 5-10mm being put on at various parts of the track, but that would mean between just 1-2mm has been delivered on each day between Thursday and Sunday (four days of watering), so that seems rather on the low side.
Anyway, the ground could be crucial to the chances of Final Demand, as he probably doesn’t want this to develop into a speed test over 2m5f on drying ground.
He has the best form and time credentials, though.
Actually, this is a race where the bookies may fancy getting a result as The New Lion, for all the visuals, doesn’t really convince me at all.
At this price, anyway.
I wouldn’t get hung up about the record of Challow Hurdle winners in this race – it has no bearing on this particular horse and race, just as the performances of past favourites doesn’t (that is the most ridiculous thing you’ll hear)– but I would question the Grade 1 worth of the Newbury form.
No, I can see why some layers are offering [15/8] the pair and hoping for a result, as they have plenty running for them in here.
Final Demand is the form horse on an official rating of 154, gained when pouring it on late to win over 2m6f in soft ground at the DRF, but The New Lion is only on 147, and that is 2lb behind the impressive The Yellow Clay and just ahead of the likes of Potters Charm, Supersundae and Sixmilebridge.
And Willie also has four unexposed lurkers in here to muddy the waters.
I think his Kaid d’Authie is a fascinating contender, and very interesting at [28/1]. He is trading in the 40s win-only to buttons on the exchange, and that is where I will be looking to get involved.
He has actually drifted to 50s on Wednesday morning.
There wasn’t much between him and Kopek Des Bordes in the early betting at the DRF but on the back of rumours (a stone bruise was the most popular one), he was a massive drifter (he went off at [9/2] but he was trading at 7-1+ at one stage) and ran accordingly.
If you can put a line through that run, then his early Leopardstown win over 2m4f reads pretty well – he actually took a huge walk in the market that day too, strangely enough (he may simply not be a sound horse, I guess) – so I am going to chuck a few quid on him win-only.
He had a fair reputation before that Leopardstown run last time, and he could be the dark one in here at the price.
It is a low-stakes guess, though.
But now he has drifted to 50s on Wednesday morning, I may have a dart each way if I can get hold of that price.
It has gone from
One of the very few serious ante-post bets I had was Gorgeous Tom each way, three places, from prices ranging from 25s to 16s.
Obviously, the main attraction of those bets was the each-way element as, to be honest – we are obviously down to two places here – I do expect Ballyburn to win.
But he isn’t bombproof at the same time, and I can certainly let him win unbacked at evens.
I am not giving up on Gorgeous Tom hitting the jackpot but, rather than taking the [11/1] fixed-odds, win-only, now, I reckon the way to play this is the [5/1] without Ballyburn (available in two places).
He doesn’t have that much to find at all with shorter-priced horses, and the key to his chance here is stepping up to 3m.
On run-style, it is odds-on to bring about marked improvement.
The way he finishes off his races screams three-miler, and he really should have won the Grade 1 Drinmore over 2m4f last time, as it looked like his jockey took a pull two out, instead of getting stuck in.
Regardless, he rattled home to be beaten just a length and he looked the best horse in the race to me.
Ballyburn may be a bridge too far, but the 5s about him beating the rest seems too big. Any 4s or [9/2] would seem fair, too.
I like his chance, though he does have a mistake in him.
Bunting has been the mover since the final field was known. The 14s and other fancy prices have long gone about the Tony Bloom-owned, Willie Mullins-trained and Paul Townend-ridden 5yo who warmed up for this race with a [5/6] defeat at Clonmel last time.
However, a mark of 135 looks very exploitable on his Grade 1 fourth at the DRF last year, so you can see why he has been backed/cut.
I think one of the other market leaders, Impose Toi, is equally as fascinating.
The stable won this race in 2019 and 2020 (the latter win came for the same owner) and the interesting question is whether they backed off the horse, with this race in mind, after he won at Newbury in November or whether he has had a setback that has kept him off the track.
You couldn’t say he is well handicapped here, having gone up 7lb for that Newbury win, but he is a lightly-raced 7yo with plenty more to give and the first-time cheekpieces could be the icing on an attractive cake.
But 9s and 8s in a place, and a general [15/2], he is no real bargain, though.
I am going to throw two darts at much bigger prices, starting with Anna Bunina at [40/1] each way, six places.
That is available with five firms, and that wager is more of a javelin than a dart at the price.
UPDATE: She has actually drifted to 50s in several places, and is currently [75,0] on Betfair (where I keep on topping up as she drifts)
Not a surprise maybe, as she is not that sexy and you are clearly taking a lot on trust with her.
The blow-out potential is there – and the updated going stick reading worries me a bit – but I am more than happy to play at the price.
Her trainer John McConnell is having yet another of his long winless spells, but I can put that aside at the price (the important thing is to recognise it and relay it to your readers).
And another negative is she is 7lb lower in Ireland, being rated 136 here.
She also showed nothing in two starts at and around 3m last month (the cheekpieces that she wore last time on soft ground are discarded), but the step back down in trip and a return to Cheltenham can hopefully fan the flames.
She ran well in the County Hurdle in 2021 and 2023 (the latter off 143, beaten just seven lengths), and then she finished seventh in the Pertemps last year off 140, weakening late on over 3m.
And her last two Festival runs have come on unfavourable soft ground.
This is also more her trip, I think, and she ran a cracker when a length second to Wyenot over 2m4f here in October. The winner is now rated 15lb higher after good performances since, so the merit of that run is clear for all to see.
She likes decent ground and Harry Cobden isn’t a bad booking either, and he is actually two from five for the stable.
She was seventh in the Cesarewitch last year, and I think she is a great bet at 40s each way. 33s is fine, too (the firm offering eight places are 28s).
I’ll have a saver on another, though.
I will probably also have a little bit on Jimmy De Seuil at [14/1] as last year’s Gallagher (now the Turners) runner-up to Ballyburn has that Festival form and , as with Impose Toi, maybe this an even longer-term plan, with him not having been seen since May 2024.
It’s clearly a guess-up but he is obviously very lightly-raced and potentially fairly treated off 146, so he is worth a saver.
But my main bet is very definitely Anna Bunina here.
I was going to be very dismissive of this race, and simply say pass, which would have been unfair.
Pass.
I won’t keep you long here as I think this is simple.
I had a tiny each-way bet on last year’s winner Captain Guinness a few weeks ago, but the more I look at this race the more I can’t get away from Jonbon at the generally available [10/11].
I appreciate Energumene, dual winner of this race, has the back-class to give him a fright but Nicky Henderson’s chaser looks more like a 2s-on poke to me.
Sure, he can belt one – as he showed when beaten in the rescheduled Clarence House at Cheltenham last year – but there have been no real signs of that jumping frailty since, and he just looks an improved model at the top of his powers after his dismissal of Energumene at Ascot.
People will trot out the fact that his three defeats have been around here – and some may even reference the recent record of favourites – but come on.
They were against Constitution Hill, a peak El Fabiolo and that Clarence House defeat at [1/4] can be laid solely at the door of that juddering error. He actually did remarkably well to be beaten just a neck there.
I don’t play at these prices in racing, but if you do, then the [10/11] is a perfectly good price.
I’m not inclined to waffle on for the sake of it (no sniggering at the back please), as I am not having a serious bet in this.
However, I couldn’t put you off last year’s winner Unexpected Party at 6s each way, five places (or [11/2, six places, in one spot), as this is probably a weaker race and he is only 6lb higher here.
He was clearly given an easy time of it in a prep for this at Windsor last time, and this is his track.
A similar comment applies to Dancing On My Own, who is possibly a better bet at 20s each way, five places (available with three firms).
We haven’t seen him since he finished a good third off a 2lb higher mark here in October, and I don’t know why he has been off since.
But he has won twice off similar absences and the place part of that 20s bet looks a fair trade-off for the doubts.
I’ll back the above pair, each way, if I can.
Wednesday is often an underwhelming punting day at the Festival, and it rounds off with the roulette of the bumper.
They say bookmakers love these races, and you can see why, as 17 of the 18 in here have won and none have raced more than four times in this discipline (unsurprisingly as they wouldn’t have been eligible otherwise….).
They all have the capability to improve massively – not least the talked-up favourite Copacabana – and it really isn’t my bag.
I appreciate this is where plenty let the speed figures dictate where they play, and it would appear that the general [13/2] chance Bambino Fever is the Time Bandits’ choice (don’t mess with them), so by all means get stuck in if you so wish.
If I was at Cheltenham, I’d be making an early getaway before this race.
As it is, it’ll take me 10 interrupted seconds to walk down the stairs and replenish my drink of choice, which is normally a toss-up between gin and wine these days.
Occasionally a Bulmers and Magners straight from a chilled bottle, but never lager (unless a one-off thirst quencher after a day in the sun, which I can’t do any more).
Gorgeous Tom at [5/1] without Ballyburn in 2pm. Available with two firms (9/2 and 4/1 elsewhere is acceptable)
Anna Bunina at 40s each way, six places, in 2.40pm. Available with five firms (she is now available at 50s in several places on Wednesday morning)
Course report the below will be re-assessed when grass frost lifts
GOING: Good to soft
CROSS COUNTRY Course – Good to Soft (Good in places) (Going stick of 5.1 Tuesday 8am) – was 6.7 on Sun 15:00pm….
“Will water to maintain Good on the Cross Country Course.”
GOING STICK: 5.1 as at 9am Tuesday; 5.5 (10am Tuesday); 6.1 Monday; was 6.1 (8.30am Sunday); was 6.1 (10am Saturday), having been 6.4 at 9am on Thursday.
Wednesday morning update: 100mm of rainfall in January and 48mm in February. 3.5mm of rainfall late afternoon/evening on Monday then dry on Tuesday with temperatures dropping overnight to a low of -2. Risk of a wintery shower this morning then dry with temperatures of 7 degrees.
Weather: 2.4mm Wednesday, 0.5mm Thursday. 0.5mm Friday (freezing temperatures overnight)
Watering: Selective watering to maintain to commence today (Thursday)
Watering update (Friday 8.37am): Selective watering to maintain.
Saturday update (9.44am): “Watering to maintain”.
Sunday update: “Watered”
Monday update (7.01am): “Watering (In Progress) – Will water to maintain Good on the Cross Country Course.”
Tuesday 6.32am: “Watered”
2.40pm: Dr Eggman, Mordor, Josh The Boss, Deep Cave, Harsh, Guard The Moon, Idem, Spirit d’Aunou, Fenway Park, Double Powerful, Aston Martini, Royale Margaux ,Timmy Tuesday, Spirits Bay, Blenkinsop, Hamsiyann, Kimy, Classic King, Saint Anapolino
3.20pm: Deise Aba, Unanswered Prayers, Three By Two, Enjoy d’Allen, Back On The Lash, Slipway, Iceo Madrik
4.40pm: Dr T J Eckleburg
Willie Mullins hood 33-183 (since 2013) – Supersundae, 1.20pm
Gordon Elliott blinkers 20-167 (2009) – Staffordshire Knot, 2.40pm
Nicky Henderson cheekpieces 17-87 (2016) – Impose Toi, 2.40pm
Gavin Cromwell cheekpieces 13-87 (2016) – Stumptown, 3.20pm
Blinkers 2-88 (since 2009)
Cheekpieces 1-75 (2017)
Hood 5-45 (2013) – though Proform report first-time hoods in hurdles at the Festival are 0 from 34 since 2015 (chasers are 2 from 6)
Visor 2-30 (2013)
1.20pm (Mullins has the pace key): Final Demand?, Forty Coats (prom), Kaid d’Authie?, Kappa Jy Pyke (prom), Kel Histore (prom), Kiss Will, Sixmilebridge, Supersundae?, The Yellow Clay
2pm (Mullins has the pace key here, too) : Ballyburn, Better Days Ahead, Dancing City, Lecky Watson, Quai De Bourbon (prom)
2.40pm: Maxxum, Beacon Edge, Al Gasparo, Bunting, Might I?, Lossiemouth (prom),
3.20pm: Stumptown?, Coko Beach (prom), French Dynamite?, Vanillier (prom), Roi Mage (prom), Mister Coffey (prom), Escaria Ten
4pm: Energumene (prom), Found A Fifty (prom), Jonbon?, Marine Nationale?, Quilixios, Solness
4.40pm: Dancing On My Own, Unexpected Party (prom), Fringill Dike (prom), Gaelic Arc, Western Zephyr, Jazzy Matty?, Jasko Des Dames?, Primoz,
5.20pm (very little evidence): Dalston Lad, Gameofinches?, Heads Up, He Can’t Dance, Shuttle Diplomacy, Sortudo,
Excellent: Sam Thomas, Hobbs and White (two winners on Monday), Thomas Cooper (one runner, one winner….)
Good: Nicky Richards (winner on Saturday and Sunday), Lucinda Russell (winner on Tuesday), Gary and Josh Moore (three winners on Monday), Neil Mulholland (winner on Saturday, and another on Monday), Jane Williams (small sample), Willie Mullins (four winners on Sunday, and two on Tuesday, and already two so far on Wednesday)
Fair: Henry De Bromhead (winner on Saturday, horses are not firing here so far), Gordon Elliott (winner on Saturday), Fergal O’Brien, Paul Nicholls (winner on Monday, and a couple of Tuesday), Nicky Henderson (arguably more moderate but Jango Baie on Tuesday), Joseph O’Brien (winner on Tuesday), Dan Skelton (moderate for him, though a winner on Saturday and a rather good winner with The New Lion on Wednesday), Nigel Twiston-Davies, Joe Tizzard (winner on Saturday, and another on Monday), Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Martin Keighley (winner on Monday), Paul Nolan, Evan Williams, Emma Lavelle (winner on Monday), Jedd O’Keeffe, John Patrick Ryan, Charlie Longsdon, Cian Collins, Charles Byrnes, Ben Pauling
Moderate: Gavin Cromwell (but coming right this week), Venetia Williams, John McConnell, Harry Fry (though a winner on Monday)
We have 11 in the Turners at 1.20pm. The Yellow Clay is in here, but no James’s Gate, who was 10s NRNB. Willie has six of the 11.
As expected, seven in the Browns at 3pm, with Haiti Couleurs and The Changing Man running on Tuesday.
We have a maximum field of 26 in the Coral Cup at 2.40pm. Nineteen have been balloted out.
We have a maximum field of 16 in the Cross Country. Seven have been balloted out.
Eight in the Champion Chase. No Il Est Francais, Master Chewy and JPR One.
We have a maximum field of 20 in the Grand Annual. One has been balloted out.
We have 18 in the Bumper.
———————————————
I am going to be updating each day of the Festival, daily, from the five-day stage to the day itself (if that makes sense….)
I will be adding any significant betting news etc (and weather updates, obviously), if any materialise, on a rolling daily basis.
So check in each day between now and Wednesday (and on the day itself)
Every day will get its own fresh column, so Day Three on Thursday will appear here early Friday afternoon etc.
Cheltenham announced at 12.55pm on Thursday: “Selective watering to maintain to commence today (Thursday)”
No details/amounts given.
Friday’s watering update, as per 8.37am, is “Selective watering to maintain”.
Saturday’s update at 9.44am was “watering to maintain”.
The going stick reading is 6.1 (10am Saturday), having been 6.4 at 9am on Thursday.
It remained at 6.1 as at 8.30am on Sunday, and on Monday.
Do we think that is good enough?
No, of course it isn’t.
It seems no-one is bothered by the lack of basic information. I’ve read a couple of articles, where the clerk of the course is interviewed, and no-one appears to have asked him how much he is putting on.
Which would obviously be most people’s first question.
Perhaps ITV will get an answer on The Opening Show on Saturday morning.
If it is necessary, then so be it (and it would appear it is), but be up front about it.
This is how Sandown have kept punters abreast of their watering this week for their Imperial Cup fixture on Saturday.
“Watering: Selective watering began on Tuesday to maintain Good ground. Repeated Wednesday – 7mm each application. Covers most of the Chase Course Back Straight, and about 2 furlongs of the Hurdle Course Back Straight. Repeated Thursday and scaled down to 4mm Friday. Pond Fence to 2nd last 5mm Friday.”
Cheltenham should take the small wins when they can – and a detailed and open watering policy is one of those.
There were 52 in this (Kdeux Saint Fray and South Omo Frome were already scratched prior to Thursday) and we are now down to 23.
Perhaps the most high-profile horses not confirmed were the Supreme-bound Kopek Des Bordes, as short as [7/4] in the NRNB market, and Romeo Coolio.
AKBets are top price at [7/4] and [11/5] respectively about The New Lion and Final Demand respectively (remember these are all-in prices).
They are actually top price about every horse in the race.
Just four of the 23 are UK-trained.
Horses not confirmed: Argento Boy, Ballygunner Castle, Bill Joyce, Crest Of Fortune, Fingle Bridge, First Confession, Fishery Lane, Good And Clever, Good N’ Kind,, Jacovec Cavern Jet Blue, Joystick ,Kawaboomga, Kingston Pride,, Koktail Divin, Kopek Des Bordes, Minella Sixo Newton Tornado, Old Cowboy, Romeo Coolio, Sea Of Sands, The Enabler, Tutti Quanti,, You Oughta Know Zillow,, Holloway Queen, Jig’s Forge, Kdeux Saint Fray, South Omo Frome
There were 22 in this (Butch already scratched prior to Thursday) and we are now down to just nine.
No Croke Park, but Ultima favourite The Changing Man has been left in.
Just two of the nine are UK-trained, and they are favourites for handicaps at the meeting, so they would appear unlikely to rock up here.
Horses not confirmed: Asian Master, Buddy One, Champ Kiely, Croke Park, High Class Hero, Ideal Des Bordes, Jango Baie, Jingko Blue, Lowry’s Bar, Peaky Boy, Search For Glory, Springwell Bay, White Rhino, Butch
There were 96 in this and we are down to 62.
No Kopeck De Mee and Langer Dan. Another no-show of note was Altobelli.
Be Aware is the 6s favourite (in just two places)
Horses not confirmed: Langer Dan, Pied Piper, Gold Tweet, Blueking d’Oroux , Salver , Hang In There, Altobelli ,Gala Marceau , Steel Ally , Santos Blue, Bugise Seagull, No Ordinary Joe, West Balboa, D Art D Art, Queens Gamble, Kopeck De Mee, Thecompanysergeant, Jeriko Du Reponet , Doyen Quest, Finest Evermore, Punctuation, Donnie Devito, Eagles Reign, Petrol Head, Blaze The Way, Cormier, Country Park, Jacovec Cavern, No Questions Asked, Kings Hill, Gentleman Bill, Kap Vert, Newton Tornado
There were 29 in this (The Big Breakaway was scratched prior to Thursday) and we are now down to 24.
Stumptown is the favourite. He is [11/4] in a place.
Horses not confirmed: Fakir D’oudairies, Placenet, Motu Fareone, Bodhisattva, Sporting Ace, The Big Breakaway
There were 19 in this (Edwardstone already scratched prior to Thursday) and we are now down to 11.
Il Est Francais has been left in, but no Gaelic Warrior.
AKBets are top price about Jonbon at [10/11].
Horses not confirmed: Banbridge, Blood Destiny, Djelo, El Fabiolo, Gaelic Warrior, Jungle Boogie, Matata, Senecia, Edwardstone
There were 45 in this (Edwardstone already scratched prior to Thursday) and we are now down to 26.
No Firefox.
It is 7s the field if you shop around, with AKBets top price about both Libberty Hunter and Unexpected Party .
Horses not confirmed: Sa Fureur, Springwell Bay, Hunters Yarn, Kalif Du Berlais, Firefox, Pinkerton,, Dee Capo, Path d’Oroux, Calico, Editeur Du Gite, San Salvador, What’s Up Darling Harper’s Brook, Ha d’Or, Asta La Pasta, Sans Bruit, First Street, Cabhfuilfungi, Hypotenus, Edwardstone
There were 32 in this (Windbeneathmywings already scratched prior to Thursday) and we are now down to 25.
No Jalon D’oudairies.
Copacabana is the [5/2] favourite, with the 3s being taken.
Horses not confirmed: Casterly Rock, Champagne Jury, Jalon D’oudairies, Kaiser Ball, Little Watson,, Future Prospect, Bespoke Tailor, Windbeneathmywings
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