By Tony Calvin - 12 March 2025
The ground has tightened into good to soft. It was good to soft, soft in places yesterday.
The latest going stick reading is 5.4, as at 9am on Thursday.
Temperatures dipped briefly overnight to -2. Dry day forecast with temperatures of 8 degrees.
1.20pm: I wouldn’t say there has been much money knocking around here. Galileo Dame (mentioned below in copy) was cut from 6s, 11/2 and 5s through yesterday, and is now best at 4s.
Sixandahalf is solid at [11/4] and Maughreen, near enough favourite this time last week, is out to 10s.
Bluey is half a springer at a price.
2pm: Firefox (mentioned below in copy) is probably the main mover here. 8s in a place, and [15/2] and 7s, yesterday, he is into 6s. He is as short at 5s.
That money has continued through the morning and he was trading at just 5.6 on Betfair at 8.46am.
2.40pm: D Art D Art, (mentioned in copy below), 12s in two places yesterday morning, when 11s and 10s was also available, was clipped in from yesterday morning onwards and is now the favourite. He is as low as 5s and 7s in a place. He is a general 6s poke.
3.20pm: Nothing much doing here. Fact To File is now best at a general [6/4].
4pm: Langer Dan is a non-runner (respiratory infection).
The Wallpark has been snipped slightly to [5/1] (as low as 4s), and Teahupoo is still weakish at [17/10] with AKBets, who go top price.
4.40pm: Jagwar looks tight at [7/2]. There has been some money for Thecompanysergeant behind him it seems and he has been clipped into [13/2]. Conflated (mentioned in copy below) has also been cut into 20s (as short as 14s), but he has been pretty static win-only on the exchange at a touch bigger price.
5.20pm: Walking On Air is very strong at [7/2], as is Midnight Our Fred (mentioned in copy below) at 6s (from 9s and 8s yesterday) and there have been nibbles for Mint Boy, now 11s.
The first thing that obviously strikes you about the fields on Thursday are that they are pretty daunting at first glace, so much so that if it was a normal day, you’d probably re-draw the curtains (not that you would have been sketching them earlier, if indeed you have any) and get back in the scratcher.
Massive fields then, and bookies will be fancying their chances here, though they could have used up all their luck on Day One (though some in the ring actually reported that they lost).
There is a fair argument to say that this full field of 24 (one was balloted out – see those details below) is one of the hardest races of the week to try to decipher, given the unexposed nature of the big guns and plenty more besides.
The 94-rated Flat horse Sixandahalf is the [10/3] favourite after winning on her hurdling debut at Fairyhouse in January, and she has an obvious chance. She handled the hurly-burly of a big field well when third in the 30-runner Irish Cesarewitch.
This time last week the similarly unexposed (one hurdles run, one win) Maughreen was the favourite but she has gone walkabout in the market – for now anyway – after Patrick Mullins appeared alongside her name on the racecard, and not Paul Townend.
Galileo Dame splits the pair at [5/1] – all the 6s and [11/2] was taken on Wednesday morning – and she’d probably be my lean in the race, if pushed.
I’m sitting this race out then but the maiden probably just about boasts the best form in here courtesy of her Grade 1 second last time – though Townend’s mount, and 8s chance, Aurora Vega is officially the best horse in here on a mark of 141 – and, as the only 4yo filly in the field, she gets a whopping 10lb from the rest.
It looks a wise decision to come here instead of the Grade 1 Triumph then – I wonder if connections will be taken to task for taking the soft option? – and she has 96-rated Flat form in a big field, too.
Actually scrap that idea that the mares’ novices hurdle was one of the hardest races of the week.
It is not even the most difficult of the first two contests on the Thursday card.
I’ll genuinely be bet-less (better than potless) going into race three then, as I thought this was impossible.
Firefox arguably has the most attractive profile coming here via the Grade 1 route, and stepping back up in trip holding no fears for him, but he is only 8s in one place, and a general 7s, and that isn’t quite big enough to lure me in in such of a minefield of a race.
He does have that Cheltenham Festival form though too (third in a Supreme), so I think he’d be my idea of the correct favourite.
If you want an interest then, then he is your man.
I think the Fred Winter has overtaken the Pertemps as the most unsatisfactory race of the week – I’d be a big fan of more retrospective stewards’ enquiries being undertaken, across the board – and actually all of these (actually maybe not one….) have been running on their merits in the lead-up to this race.
Some firms have Jeriko Du Reponet as short as 4s in this race (for balance, he is 5s elsewhere, with the Wednesday morning [11/2] being taken, and that is surely a crazily-bad price about a horse with a rather unconvincing profile that doesn’t match up to his home reputation, it seems.
I’ll shit and get off the pot early here though, as I think D Art D Art is a very fair each-way bet at 12s, five places, and 11s, six places.
Either play looks good to me, wherever you can get on.
Trainer Thomas Cooper has a good record at the Festival with his small string (this horse wasn’t one of those, as he finished 18th of 21 in the 2023 Bumper here but at least he has travelled to the big stage before – and he has just saddled a 66-1 third in that race on Wednesday) and he is an impressive operator in general.
And D Art D Art could have a lot more to give, even if he has been honestly campaigned this season.
He won at Punchestown in October and he has since shaped very well when placed at Naas and Carlisle, and he travelled like the best horse in the race on his step up to 3m1f on the latter track, on soft ground, last time, just getting mugged late on by the closer Shallow River after he seemingly had put the race to bed.
He is 5lb higher here (and 6lb higher than his Irish mark) but the third, Gwennie May Boy, bolted up in a Grade 2 next time, and this lightly-raced 6yo, unexposed over the trip, has a good profile for this, and the expected better ground (snow and frost permitting) could suit him better, too.
I have no idea how good the 5lb claimer is, but he has plenty of experience and his stats are okay.
He looks a good bet.
Of course, market leaders Fact To File and Il Est Francais can win this, but I have thought for a while that Protektorat was a great each way bet in this.
He is not a bet to nothing – think about it – but he is a bet.
The case for him is pretty obvious and straightforward, to be honest.
He has an excellent Cheltenham record, and not least when putting them all to the sword in this race by 4 lengths last season, and you could even argue that he put up a career-best when handing Djelo his arse at Windsor last time, for all the runner-up clearly wasn’t on peak form.
He is officially the same horse as he shorter-priced pair and I really do struggle to see him finishing out of the first three.
Final last words maybe, but I am walking the walk, as well as talking the talk here, as the 6s each way is readily available (in 15 places) and attractive.
He is actually [7/1] in a place, so take that if you can.
The answer is no. Just about.
Last year’s winner Teahupoo has been on the drift for this – currently 2.9 on the exchange – probably on the back of the lack of rain, but the course has been watering and who knows who much this snow will affect the ground?
That drift could be an over-reaction, and he could end up back at [5/4] or so when the real money arrives, but the horse I have to make a betting decision about in here is The Wallpark.
He was 12s and 10s when he wasn’t confirmed for the Pertemps last Friday, and is now into 7s and [13/2), so has his price gone?
Admittedly, I backed him at double figures then- and at a very fair price immediately after his Ascot run, if only to relative buttons – and I have decided to press up at [13/2] each way, four places, with six firms.
To small stakes, admittedly, but feel free to join me.
In fact, he is 7s, four places, with one firm.
Now, The Wallpark clearly needs to improve but I reckon we will see a clear career-best here after an eye-catchingly good effort in a slowly-run Long Walk at Ascot last time, finishing off his race in a manner which suggested he would have won in another furlong.
He also powered home when winning a Pertemps trial on good ground here in October – from that solid yardstick Gowel Road – and it may speak volumes that they are chancing their arm here (Gordon Elliott also has the favourite obviously) instead of taking advantage of his handicap mark of 152.
As for other each-way alternatives, Home By The Lee is another solid proposition at the generally available 6s.
Monmiral is a non-runner as at 8.59am Wednesday (cast in box), as is Langer Dan as at 7.53am on Thursday (respiratory infection).
Let’s get the negatives out of the way,
Conflated was 33s and 28s yesterday, and he is now only 25s in two places.
The 11yo has to give tons of weight away to less exposed rivals and he has been running like a drain this season.
And he is 3lb lower in Ireland.
Now the positives.
The nasty UK handicapper has at least dropped him to a mark of 157 here , having been rated 168 at his peak, and we all know 7lb claimer Rob James is well worth that 7lb claim, even if his stats don’t really back that up.
This is a significant step down in class, as he has been gashing around in Cross Country races and taking in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races, most recently in the Irish Gold Cup behind Galopin Des Champs without his usual cheekpieces.
They are back on here – he wore them when a cracking second to Jonbon in the Melling Chase last season, on which he is clearly well handicapped on 157 – and this is a horse who finished third in the Gold Cup in 2023 and third in the Ryanair in 2024.
And a forcing ride back to 2m4f could be perfect for him.
He has several pieces of form that make him a very attractive each way here, and 22s is fine, too.
So much for the big fields scaring me off, as I think Midnight Our Fred looks a very solid each-way play at 9s, and the more generally available 8s.
It’s a deep race and you may need all of those five places, but he ticks every single box for me (I hate the phrase but it does the job).
He has Cheltenham experience, finishing a close second in all of his three starts here, the ground could well be perfect for him, and he ran a cracker when second in the Paddy Power Chase last time.
There are no doubts about his stamina for 3m2f, as he has 3m4f form here, and he will hopefully will be ridden out in front and out of trouble.
I wouldn’t say he is bombproof but he is surely Mr Solid, and hopefully Mr Spectacular, too. Any 8s or 15/2 is fine, too.
Where It All Began is now a non-runner here (going).
Good luck.
D Art D Art each way at [12/1], five places, in 2.40pm. Available in two places (11s and 10s if fine).
Protektorat each way at [6/1] in 3.20pm. Available in 15 places (take the 7/1 in a place if you can)
Conflated each way at [25/1] each way, five places, in 4.40pm Available in two places (the general 22s is fine).
I’ve also had smaller each-way bets
The Wallpark each way at [13/2] , four places
Midnight Our Fred each way at 8s, five places (take the 9s if you can)
GOING: Good to soft (as at 6.25am Thursday)
GOING STICK: 5.4 (Thursday 9am)
Thursday morning update: 100mm of rainfall in January and 48mm in February. 3.5mm of rainfall on Monday, dry Tuesday. Light covering of snow on Wednesday morning. Temperatures dipped briefly overnight to -2. Dry day forecast with temperatures of 8 degrees.
Weather: 0.5mm Thursday. 0.5mm Friday
Race distances
On Sun, 09 Mar 9:05am the watering status was Watered –
On Sat, 08 Mar 9:47am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – Watering to maintain.
On Fri, 07 Mar 8:38am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – Selective watering to maintain.
On Thu, 06 Mar 12:57pm the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – Selective watering to commence today (Thursday)
1.20pm: Kom Tu Voudras
2pm: Donnacha, First Street, Galunggug, The Famous Five
2.40pm: Gold In The Rivers, Long Draw, Up For Parol
5.20pm: Fortescue, Gringo d’Aubrelle, Back On The Lash, Zertakt, Sainte Dona, Aworkinprogress,
Willie Mullins hood 32-181 (since 2013); – Maughreen, 1.20pm
Ben Pauling cheekpieces 9-86 (2016); Densworth, 2pm; Shakem Up’arry 4.40pm; Personal Ambition 4.40pm
Henry Daly cheekpieces 4-28 (2017); Supreme Gift, 2.40pm
Nicky Henderson cheekpieces 17-87 (2016); Jeriko Du Reponet. 2,40pm; Fantastic Lady 5.20pm
Paul Nicholls blinkers 12-80 (2009); Il Ridoto, 4.40pm
Alan King cheekpieces 10-91 (2016); Masaccio, 4.40pm
Nigel Twiston-Davies visor 4-78 (2010); Weveallbeencaught, 5.20pm
Gordon Elliott cheekpieces 26-215 (2016); Cleatus Poolaw, 5.20pm
Jamie Snowden cheekpieces 2-36 (2016); Git Maker, 5.20pm
James Owen blinkers 0-11 (2024); Grozni, 5.20pm
Blinkers 2-88 (since 2009)
Cheekpieces 1-75 (2017)
Hood 5-45 (2013) – though Proform report first-time hoods in hurdles at the Festival are 0 from 34 since 2015 (chasers are 2 from 6)
Visor 2-30 (2013)
1.20pm: Aurora Vega, Bluey, Brendas Asking, Disco Dance, Diva Luna, Hollygrove Cha Cha, Karoline Banbou, Magic McColgan, Maughreen, Galileo Dame (prom)
2pm: Firefox (prom), Caldwell Potter, Answer To Kayf (prom), Insurrection, O’Moore Park (prom), Anyway (prom), What’s Up Darling (prom), Pic Roc, Lord Of Thunder (prom)
2.40pm: Thomas Mor (prom), J’Ai Froid, Shanagh Bob, Guard The Moon (prom), American Sniper,
3.20pm: Il Est Francais, Hang In There, Jungle Boogie, Protektorat
4pm (easy lead potential): Gowel Road
4.40pm: Conflated, Ginny’s Destiny, Il Ridoto (prom), Gemirande, Seddon, Tahmuras (prom), Personal Ambition, Demnat, Individualiste (prom)
5.20pm: Sa Majeste (prom), Gelino Bello, Weveallbeencaught, Cleatus Poolaw (prom), Midnight Our Fred, Westerninthepark (prom), Daily Present (prom), Now Where Or When (prom), Grozni (prom), Sainte Dona? (reserve)
Excellent: Hobbs and White (two winners on Monday), Thomas Cooper (two recent runners, one winner and a 66- 1 third in Bumper), Jamie Snowden (winner on Wednesday), Olly Murphy
Good: Willie Mullins (four winners on Sunday, and another five on Tuesday and Wednesday), Henry Daly, James Owen (winner on Wednesday), George and Zetterholm, Rebecca Curtis (winner on Tuesday), Gary Brown, Nick Gifford, Barry Connell (small sample obviously)
Fair: Henry De Bromhead (winner on Saturday, but not great this week – until Air Of Entitlement…), Gordon Elliott (winner on Saturday but not great this week), Fergal O’Brien, Paul Nicholls (winners on Monday/Tuesday), Nicky Henderson (arguably more moderate for him coming into week but winner on Tuesday, and another on Wednesday ), Joseph O’Brien (winner on Tuesday), Dan Skelton (probably moderate for him, though a big winner on Wednesday and a good second), Nigel Twiston-Davies, Joe Tizzard (winner on Saturday, and another on Monday), Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Paul Nolan, Evan Williams, Emma Lavelle (winner on Monday), Charlie Longsdon (winner on Wednesday), Ben Pauling (double on Wednesday), Bailey and Nicholls, Daisy Hitchins (11-2 winner from four runners), Alan King, Lucy Wadham, David Pipe, Martin Keighley, Gavin Cromwell (horses running well this week. and on the mark with Stumptown – six others have been in the first four, so probably should be in the good category)
Moderate: John McConnell (33-1 runner-up in the Bumper) , Terence O’Brien, Donald McCain (though recent winners), Nigel Hawke (though a 33-1 second), Philip Fenton, Padraig Roche, Venetia Williams, Paul Gilligan, Mouse Morris, Declan Queally, Greenall and Guerriero (until Jagwar on Thursday, anyway), David Bridgwater
Don’t Know: E Sheehy, Katy Price, Noel Williams, David Budds, Laura Morgan, Kerry Lee, Richard Hobson, JP Flavin, Fiona Needham
1.20pm: A full field. One balloted out (Only Kimy and Tareze out).
2pm: A full field of 20. Four balloted out/reserves
2.40pm: No Monmiral and Franciscan Rock. Weights go up 6lb. Three balloted out/reserves
3.20pm: No Gaelic Warrior and Hitman. Nine runners.
4pm – No Hiddenvalley Lake. Fifteen run.
4.40pm – 21 run.
5.20pm – Six balloted out/reserves. A full field of 24.
I am going to be updating each day of the Festival, daily, from the five-day stage to the day itself (if that makes sense….)
I will be adding any significant betting news etc (and weather updates, obviously), if any materialise, on a rolling daily basis.
So check in each day between now and Thursday here, perhaps.
Every day will get its own fresh column (four in total, obviously), so Day Four on Friday will appear in a fresh column early on Saturday afternoon.
NB: Click on the race title for each race and it will take you through to the AKBets’ market.
Cheltenham announced at 12.55pm on Thursday that “Selective watering to maintain to commence today (Thursday)”.
No details/amounts given.
Friday’s update at 8.37am simply says “selective watering to maintain”.
Saturday’s update at 9.44am was “watering to maintain”.
The going stick reading is 6.1 (10am Saturday), having been 6.4 at 9am on Thursday.
It remained at 6.1 as at 8.30am on Sunday.
Do we think that is good enough?
No, of course it isn’t.
It seems no-one is bothered by the lack of basic information. I’ve read a couple of articles, where the clerk of the course is interviewed, and no-one appears to have asked him how much he is putting on.
Which would obviously be most people’s first question.
Perhaps ITV will get an answer on The Opening Show on Saturday morning.
If it is necessary, then so be it (and it would appear it is), but be up front about it.
This is how Sandown have kept punters abreast of their watering this week for their Imperial Cup fixture on Saturday.
“Watering: Selective watering began on Tuesday to maintain Good ground. Repeated Wednesday – 7mm each application. Covers most of the Chase Course Back Straight, and about 2 furlongs of the Hurdle Course Back Straight. Repeated Thursday and scaled down to 4mm Friday. Pond Fence to 2nd last 5mm Friday.”
Cheltenham should take the small wins when they can – and a detailed and open watering policy is one of those.
There were 46 in the race on Friday morning and there are now 27.
I couldn’t see any surprise no-shows.
Sixandahalf is the [3/1] favourite.
Not confirmed : Affinity Rock, Auntie Lacey, Baby Kate, Colonia Victoria, Cottersloe Sunshine, Familiar Dreams, Fancy Girl, Herj, Khrisma, La Pinsonniere, Listentoyourheart, Qualimita, Rula Bula, Siog Geal, Surrey Belle, That’ll Do Moss, Uforia, Gale Mahler, Katira du Mestivel
There were 61 (some were scratched before noon) in the race in Friday morning and there are now 33.
Again, no surprises, though Blizzard Of Oz was 10-12s NRNB and that one wasn’t confirmed.
Jagwar is best at 5s. He is also in the Plate, though.
Not confirmed : Croke Park, Jingko Blue, Tullyhill, Blizzard Of Oz, Loughglynn, Peaky Boy, Fascile Mode, Jazzy Matty, No Flies On Him, Western Diego, Shantreusse ,Release The Beast, Classic Maestro , Asta La Pasta, Billytherealbigred ,Guard Your Dreams, Theatre Man, Bhaloo, Riskintheground, Tedley Alcedo, Tapley, Personal Ambition, Leader In The Park, Sequestered, Ashdale Bob
There were 38 (some were scratched beforehand) in the race on Friday morning and there are now 30.
There was a lot of chat on Thursday evening that The Wallpark was heading for the Stayers’, and he hasn’t been confirmed.
He was earlier in the morning but was taken out before the noon deadline.
He was the ante-post favourite for this at 5s and 6s.
Gwennie May Boy (8-12s) wasn’t confirmed either.
Jeriko Du Reponet is now the favourite at 5s, a price available with AKBets.
Not confirmed : The Wallpark, Gwennie May Boy, Lossiemouth, West To The Bridge, Firestream, Whatsavailable, Henry’s Friend ,Koori Star
There were 28 in the race on Friday morning and there are now 12.
No Banbridge or Spillane’s Tower, but Gaelic Warrior is still in.
AKBets are top about Fact To File at [15/8].
Not confirmed : Banbridge, Blood Destiny, Blue Lord, Conflated, El Fabiolo, Fil Dor, Found A Fifty, Ga Law. Gentleman De Mee, Ginny’s Destiny, Grangeclare West, Journey With Me, JPR One, Le Patron, Spillane’s Tower, Springwell Bay
There were 30 in the race on Friday morning and there are now 20.
No surprises here.
Teahupoo is [6/4].
Not confirmed : Asterion Forlonge, Botox Has, Gold Tweet, Goshen, Hewick ,Maximilian,, Stellar Story, Strong Leader, July Flower , Minella Missile
There were 59 in the race on Friday morning and there are now 37.
No Crebilly, who was as short as 6s and 7s NRNB.
Jagwar heads the market at 6s and 7s in here, too.
Not confirmed : Gentleman De Mee, Zanahiyr, Pinkerton, American Mike, Midnight River, Marble Sands, San Salvador,, Light N Strike So Scottish, Crebilly, The Other Mozzie, Ha d’Or, Western Zephyr , Jazzy Matty, Midnight It Is, Shantreusse, Law Ella, Theatre Man, Guard Your Dreams, Lounge Lizard ,,Colonel Harry Torn And Frayed
There were 68 in the race on Friday morning and there are now 41.
No Now Is The Hour, as expected, Hasthing, Katate Dori and Mr Vango were no-shows.
Johnnywho is best at 4s.
Not confirmed : La Malmason, Mr Vango, Favori De Champdou, Richmond Lake, Resplendent Grey ,Now Is The Hour, Busselton, Katate Dori ,Whistle Stop Tour, Escaria Ten, Hasthing ,Ask Anything, Excello, Gericault Roque, Credo, Hymac, Deise Aba, Unanswered Prayer,s Some Scope, Deeper Blue, Undersupervision ,Hold That Taught, Jupiter Allen, Torn And Frayed, Gold Clermont
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