TONY CALVIN: Day One of Aintree on Thursday, and a 9/1 chance stands out each-way

1.45pm – 5/2 Jango Baie is a fair price

When I was listening to the Nick Luck Daily podcast on Tuesday to get my watering fill (the BHA still haven’t put his info on their website for punters to view, which is a massive fail on their part), I heard his guest Lee Mottershead describing Thursday’s Aintree card as “stunning”.

I’ll have whatever Lee had been drinking, please.

Come on, it’s not that great a card for an opening day of a major Festival is it, but it certainly ain’t bad.

In fact, I’m looking forward to it, if not necessarily from a punting point of view.

This race has stood up okay at the overnight stage, though we lost what could have been very able contenders in Handstands, Dancing City and Quai De Bourbon.

There was a small move for Rubaud when he opened up at 16s and 14s late on Thursday morning – he is still the latter price with AKBets, and one other – and you can see why.

Rubaud will probably have his preferred ground, despite the watering (well done to Luck for getting the thumbscrews out and securing that info, even if being on the Aintree board would have helped him there, – the information is below), and he did remarkably well to win on his first start over an extended 2m4f at Kempton last time.

He looked beaten from an early stage there – he hit 40 in the run – but it was actually his stamina and tenacity that won him the day there.

He will need to jump and travel far more kindly in this better grade though, and I just wonder whether he has the class for this job.

Boring alert – I actually think Jango Baie is a fair price at the general [5/2].

I have backed him to small sums so far, averaging 3.82 on the exchange.

The case for him is obvious, as it is compelling (or so I think, anyway).

He won his Grade 1 here over hurdles on Boxing Day in 2023, albeit a touch luckily, and he probably should have won the 2m4f handicap at this meeting last season.

That’s the course box ticked then, as is the ground (he is versatile on this score though, having just got touched off on heavy by Handstands at Sandown two starts ago), and he clearly did remarkably well to win the Arkle.

They tried to go from the front with him there but he didn’t have the early gas, and he needed all of the 2m and the stiff uphill finish (the Timeform site tells us he hit 300 in running) to reel in the opposition.

He has the best form (just about) coming into this race and he just looks very solid, with everything else seemingly in his favour, not least the step back up in trip.

2.20pm – Lots to like about 9/1 chance Murcia

We lost Lulamba, Lady Vega Allen and Hello Neighbour at the overnight stage, so that rather took the shine off this race.

It has made this Grade 1 rather winnable though, as the Triumph Hurdle form is represented only by Willy De Houelle (finished 11^th, beaten 37 lengths) and Gibbs Island (pulled up),

There are plenty of unexposed lurkers in here, not least the talked-up Live Conti and the once-raced Filibustering – and Triumph Hurdle-stylee, we also have two unraced hurdlers – but it makes sense to make the Fred Winter form your springboard to finding the winner of this race.

The dominant 6-length winner of that race, the questionably-campaigned Puturhandstogether, is the obvious starting point and he has already been backed into favouritism at [11/4].

In fact, that is now long gone and he is only best at [15/8], with AKBets. And even that may be coming under pressure.

I can certainly see the case for him – and the fresh, and nibbled-at, Naturally Nimble – but Murcia stood out for me at the opening prices on Tuesday.

Unfortunately, that was the case with other punters too, as the 14s in two places on the Oddschecker grid was quickly taken, followed by the 11s and the 10s.

Rather annoying, but I still would back her at the 9s, which is available in seven places.

Murcia finished 8 ¾ lengths behind Puturhandstogether in the Fred Winter, but she was giving him 6lb there and now receives 7lb, so the weights and measures suggests things should be very tight between them.

And I reckon this track could suit Murcia better than Cheltenham.

She travelled sweetly into the race at Cheltenham but she didn’t finish off her race up the straight as strongly as seemed likely turning in.

She is the only filly in the field, getting 7lb from the rest – Willie Mullins has won this race with mares Zenta in 2023 and Apple’s Jade in 2016 (I forgot he had her early doors) – and I think she has a very solid each-way chance at 9s.

That is fine.

However, she is 9s, four places, with one bookmaker, and [17/2], with the same place terms with another, so bet there if you can.

I’d like an extra place on my side if possible here.

She is the only Thursday fixed-odds bet I have had so far.

2.55pm – No betting opinion here

This is as good a race as we could have hoped for at the five-day stage, with the four overnight departures not leaving much of a hole.

However, I don’t have a strong betting opinion, as [9/4] chance Grey Dawning and [7/2] second favourite Spillane’s Tower dominate the betting and also my thoughts.

That may seem a touch simplistic given this is actually a very tight-knit race on official figures – only 4lb separates six of the dead-eight, and Embassy Gardens and Stage Star aren’t too far behind – so maybe there could be an upset of sorts.

Djelo is actually the top-rated ‘oss and he is a general 25s poke.

If there is a surprise, it won’t affect me, as I am not betting.

3.30pm – Marginally prefer Lossiemouth at the prices

 No Brighterdaysahead, as expected, and Tellherthename, Salver (who was declared a non-runner due to coughing at 11.50am on Wednesday) and Break My Soul were confirmed late for the race on Tuesday morning in the hunt for easy prize money from fifth to seventh.

In truth, this looks a straight match between Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth – [5/6] plays [7/4], both prices being available with AKBets – but I guess we all said that about the Champion Hurdle.

I wouldn’t be sold about Constitution Hill over this 2m4f trip – I know he won this race in 2023 but I thought he fell in to an extent that day – and I think Aintree virgin Lossiemouth is marginally the better betting proposition (at the current 2.86 on Betfair, anyway).

But it’s yet another race that I am not inclined to force a bet just because it is a big meeting.

4.05pm – Poor Solomon Grey, Nasty Captain Tommy

All 31 confirmed for this race, so the unlucky Solomon Grey was balloted out.

You feel for their connections as Captain Tommy ran at Kempton on Tuesday and presumably won’t run here (in fact, he has now been officially ruled out as unqualified), so he has cost Solomon Grey his day in the sun.

I have nothing more to add on this Foxhunters’ (I thought they stopped calling these races that?) other than that observation.

4.40pm – 20/1 Gunsight Ridge makes most appeal

We are four shy of a full field of 18 for the Red Rum.

The complexion of this race changed a lot overnight, with the weights going up 9lb after top weight Matata came out.

That brought six of these into the handicap, with only Rath Gaul Hill remaining wrong (to the tune of 3lb), so it is certainly not a high-quality renewal of this 2m handicap chase.

Primoz was one of the beneficiaries of the weights going up, and this is something of a recovery mission for connections after the horse was very done to by the starter after being a big punt for the Grand Annual.

There is no surprise to see him head the betting here at a general [5/1] then – the only shock was that he opened up at 8s and 7s in places on Tuesday morning, with [11/2] still available in a place – and he is obviously felt to be a lot better than his current handicap mark of 130.

Last year’s winner Sans Bruit has been running like a drain but at least he is back on the same mark as when bolting up by 4 lengths in this race last season.

But should that make him as low as 7s in here given his current form? (and that 7s is only available in one spot).

I haven’t had a bet in this race yet, and may well not do so, but My Mate Mozzie at [11/2] and Gunsight Ridge at 20s looked okay prices, with four places available to most each-way punters (and five to one set).

My Mate Mozzie looks very solid, in particular, which is why he is [11/2], I guess.

Gunsight Ridge is more hit and miss – he blew out in this race when the [4/1] favourite in 2022, for example – but he comes here after a win last time, he is a course winner and the 20s about him, four places, looks a decent enough bet.

Though it could be more of a win-only bet, I guess.

The cheekpieces were back on at Sandown last time (and retained here) and he is now two from two in those.

The downsides are that he runs off a career-high mark here at the age of 10, but price is all and he looks too big at 20s.

Yes, I’ll back him if I can access that 20s.

Actually, I see AKBets are now [28/1].

5.15pm – 10/3 Seo Linn heads the bumper betting

All 35 confirmed for this, so five were balloted out.

They were: Bay Empress, Freddiemissmolli, Mighty Fleur, Riviera Walk and Royal Hillsborough. Get your money back there.

As with the Foxhunters’, this type of race just ain’t my bag.

I’ll leave this to the gossip merchants and The Time Bandits, but Seo Linn is the popular one in the early betting, as the general 3s favourite, and [10/3] in a place.

BEST BET

Murcia each-way at 9s or [17/2] , four places (the more generally available 9s, three places, is acceptable, too).

AINTREE GROUND AND WEATHER – updated 11.42am Thursday

Hurdle (going stick 5.1, Thursday 11am): Good to soft, good in places

Chase (5.4, Thursday 11am): Good to soft, good in in places

NATIONAL COURSE 

Good to soft (going stick reading of 5.5, Thursday 11am )

Thursday  morning course update:  17.5mm in March. Temperatures reached 18 degrees Monday, 16.5 on Tuesday and 18 Wednesday. Dry, sunny forecast today with temperatures of 19 degrees.

Watering (no daily amounts given, or when watering has taken place this week) : Watering commenced w/c 17th March. An average of 60-70mm applied. Will water after racing on Thursday and Friday as necessary.

On Thu, 03 Apr 6:52am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) 

Weather: 18 degrees and sunny all week

Rails: Hurdle rails: + 8yds both bends Chase rails: +8yds Home bend and +6yds Anchor bridge bend GN Chase: bend approaching GN13 +6yds and Home bend +8yds

• Race 1:Race distance is now +59y to 2m 4f 39y
• Race 2:Race distance is now +59y to 2m 1f 48y
• Race 3:Race distance is now +82y to 3m 1f 72y
• Race 4:Race distance is now +73y to 2m 4f 73y
• Race 5:Race distance is now +29y to 2m 5f 48y
• Race 6:Race distance is now +48y to 2m 4y
• Race 7:Race distance is now +59y to 2m 1f 48y

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS 

BALLOTED OUT (money back for ante-post punters)

 4.40pm: Solomon Grey

5.15pm :  Bay Empress, Freddiemissmolli, Mighty Fleur, Riviera Walk,  Royal Hillsborough

PACE MAPS

1.45pm Aintree:  Croke Park, Gidleigh Park, Jango Baie (prom), Rubaud

2.20pm Aintree:  Aviemore (prom), Coconut Grove, Filibustering, Live Conti, Murcia (prom)

2.55pm Aintree: Ahoy Senor, Embassy Gardens, Grey Dawning, Stage Star, The Real Whacker

3.30pm Aintree: Constitution Hill?, Tellherthename?, Break My Soul?

4.05pm Aintree (not gospel this…): A Jet Of Our Own, Bardenstown Lad, Bennys King, Eva’s Oskar, Go Go Geromino, Jet Plane, Lifetime Ambition, Percussion, Presentandcounting, Yccs Portocervo, Yippee Ki Yay

4.40pm Aintree: Gunsight Ridge (prom), Calico, The Folkes Tiara, Sans Bruit, Primoz?, Galunngung

5.15pm Aintree (limited evidence, so I have just listed those who have led before – plenty have raced prominently in smaller fields): Kingston Queen, Roses All The Way

TRAINERFORM 

Excellent: Willie Mullins, Olly Murphy, Emma Lavelle, Killahena and McPherson (three runners, three winners), Jamie Snowden

Good: Lucinda Russell, Anthony Honeyball, Fergal O’Brien, Tim Vaughan

Fair: Dan Skelton, Ben Pauling, Nicky Henderson, Joseph O’Brien, Gary and Josh Moore, Paul Nicholls, Nicky Richards, Harry Derham, Tom Lacey, Gavin Cromwell, Donald McCain, Brian Ellison, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Ian Donoghue, Ann Hamilton (four runners, one winner), Evan Williams, Newland and Insole, Paddy Twomey (two runners, one winner, so arguably good, clearly), Ben Brookhouse, Adrian Murray, Alan King. Sam Drinkwater (three runners, one winner), David Loughnane (a 14-1 chance beaten a head, and a 5-1 winner on Tuesday, so probably nearer good),

Moderate: Gordon Elliott, Harry Fry (very small sample),  Henry De Bromhead (maybe more fair), David Pipe, Peter and Michael Bowen (2-5 winner on Wednesday, though), Stuart Crawford, Matt Sheppard,  Laura Morgan (very small sample)

Don’t know: Thomas Mullins, Venetia Williams (been very quiet after a poor March), Eloise Quayle, Debra Hamer, Garry Caldwell, Patrick Owens, Kelly Morgan, Fred Timmis (one runner under Rules, one winner), C Barber, Callum Bickers-Price, J J O’Shea, P M Doyle (two runners, one 8-1 winner), Mrs G Andrews, Edward Walker, D M Christie, Alan Hill, Miss V Collins, James Mangan, Patrick Neville, R Pudd, Nick Kent