By Tony Calvin - 13 March 2025
The ground remains unchanged at good to soft, as per the 6.25am update on Friday. It was -3.5 overnight.
Rail movement details added in below.
The going stick reading is 5.9 as at 10am Friday. It was 5.4 yesterday.
The current price changes will be very much a Phoney War once again.
We saw yesterday the dramatic changes late on in several races, which had no bearing to the early morning prices/moves (which are always to little money in very reactive and shallow markets).
Still, we may as well have a look.
1.20pm Cheltenham – Nothing has changed towards the top of the betting (East India Dock is the marginal favourite) but a feature of this market yesterday was twofold.
The first was the move for Mondo Man, as big as 40s and 33s at 6am on Thursday morning, and he is now best at 18s.
The other, which progressed throughout the day, was Blue Lemons, one of 11 for Willie Mullins.
The 99-rated Flat horse, winner of his sole hurdles start at Gowran, also opened up at 40s and 33, and he now ranges from [17/2] to 14s.
In both cases though, the move is far less pronounced on Betfair, and they currently trade at 27.0 and 24.0 respectively.
2pm Cheltenham – We are pretty static here, too.
Hansard opened up at 22s and 20s, and all the 16s and 14s have been taken. But, again, there is a disconnect between the each way price and win-only on the exchange (albeit it would take very little for a price to crash on the latter).
Hansard now trades between [10/1] and [12/1] but is 16.5.
At the top of the market, Lark In The Mornin is probably strongest at 4s (was 5s), but a later morning mover is Daddy Long Legs from 20s to 16s and 14s (was 25s yesterday afternoon, and 33s before that).
He is The Times nap….(something I have mentioned about shorteners before).
2.40pm Cheltenham – No real changes, though the favourite is weak.
Dinoblue is best fixed-odds wise at [6/4] with AKBets.
3.20pm Cheltenham – There isn’t a lot going on here either. Jet Blue has been clipped in to [13/2] from 8s but there seems to be money around for Derryhassen Paddy.
4pm Cheltenham – Galopin Des Champs has drifted a touch to [4/7], with Inothewayurthinkin perhaps the strongest behind in, from 8s in a place into [13/2].
Montys Star is reasonably strong from 14s to 10s, too.
4.40pm Cheltenham – Angels Dawn is the 3s favourite. Other than that I know nothing, Well, one thing.
Rockys Howya is perhaps the one of note, a general 11s from 16s. AKBets are stand-out at 14s.
5.20pm Cheltenham – Pretty much nothing doing here either outside of the move for Nurse Susan, in the Langer Dan colours of Colm Donlon.
She opened up at 33s, 28s and 25s and she now is a best-priced 12s (though she does trade at 18.5).
Kopeck De Mee is [5/2]. Read about him in the copy below.
The big match-ups haven’t always materialized this week (and nor have some of the big guns delivered on their own), but it’ll be disappointing if the proven form horse East India Dock and the sexier Lulamba don’t have a good set-to here.
Mind you, Willie Mullins, with 11 of the 18 – which is vaguely comical for a Grade 1, and I hope the ensuing traffic doesn’t affect the result- isn’t going to die wondering here, though 12s chance Lady Allen Vega is the shortest price of his legs eleven.
Or rather, was.
Read on.
I’d marginally prefer East India Dock at the current prices (though they are basically joints now), as he has the form and time credentials his main market rival doesn’t have, and I wouldn’t go overboard on the fact that the horse he beat last time, Stencil, blew out in the Fred Winter on Tuesday.
Stencil was very keen going to post, and he burned himself on the front end.
There is little doubt that Lulamba has the unknown X factor about him, though.
There were rumours of some stellar homework prior to his debut at Ascot (I think one was him beating Jonbon in a gallop, or was it Sir Gino?), and he certainly did the business on the track, giving Mondo Man 10lb and the smoothest of 3 ½-length beatings.
It would surprise no-one if he were to win this, but Mondo Man is interesting with the hood applied.
This high-class Flat horse (though I think an official rating of 111 flatters him somewhat) has not done himself any favours by refusing to settle, at Ascot and at Kempton last time, but if the headgear does the trick then he is probably no 40s poke.
In fact, he isn’t anymore as the last of that went early on Thursday morning.
He is 33s, four places, with one firm (28s, same terms, with another) and that could be good business, for all Mullins has no end of lurkers in here (and Blue Lemons was his springer throughout Thursday – the one-time 99-rated Flat horse opened up as big as 40s and 33s and now ranges from 14s to just 8s).
Mondo Man is 33s, with the traditional three places, elsewhere.
I suppose the more conventional each-way bet is Hello Neighbour, [11/2] in two places, after his Grade 1 win last time at the DRF.
But I think a mark of 145 flatters him.
That said, he is two from two over hurdles, as he was unbeaten in two outings on the Flat, and perhaps an even more strongly-run race will see him come forward further.
Maybe this isn’t a straight match, after all.
We are 10 shy of a maximum field of 26 here, so I don’t know what is going on, and it’s certainly not a great renewal to my eyes.
It’ll still take some solving and I was leaning towards Kargese before the revised prices came up. I was not expecting her to be as short as [11/4], and top at [7/2].
Maybe I just missed an ante-post move, but maybe the Paul Townend factor is firmly at play there.
Likewise, Absurde (who Townend rode when he won this race last season) and Lark In The Mornin don’t exactly scream value at around 5s.
One horse I was surprised was as big as he was when the prices came up back early on Wednesday was Hansard – he was 22s in a place, with plenty of 20s around – and not solely because he finished third to a certain Golden Ace and Burdett Road in the Kingwell at Wincanton last time.
I tipped him at Windsor in January, when he was a big drifter and hated the track, so I had already marked him down as a well handicapped hurdler.
And what he did at Wincanton certainly wouldn’t have altered that view, as the assessor could have put him up more than the 2lb he did for finishing a 4 ¾ length third to Golden Ace (getting 8lb) and Burdett Road (off levels) last time. He travelled well for a long way there, too.
And the ground would have been testing enough for him there (Timeform called it soft).
I am not going overboard about that Champion Hurdle angle, though. And the first-time cheekpieces was not a factor in backing him, especially as the stable are 0 from 17 in this area from last year (see below).
The lack of Cheltenham experience is another negative (he was a non-runner in this race last season with a vet’s cert) but a mark of 142 (the same mark as he was on after he won the 2023 Gerry Feilden) surely gives him a far better chance than the opening quotes suggested.
The 22s and 20s have gone, so we have to settle for 16s, five places, with four firms.
That 16s would be my cut-off price, though.
Dinoblue is top-priced at [6/5] here with AKBets and even that is still take-it-or-leave-it material for me.
She was beaten by Limerick Lace in this race and there is only a fag packet between her and Brides Hill, last year’s winner and Allegorie De Vassy at these weights.
I don’t have a betting opinion – if anything I’d probably rather have the field running for me at [4/5] if I could lay Dinoblue at 2.26 – so let’s move on.
Another brutally competitive, big field, race (just the 20 novices), with [9/2] the field, which brings in The Big Westerner.
I don’t think this is a contest in which you can be bullish about anything, as we are dealing with a fair amount of horses who will improve markedly for the step up to 3m for the first time (though eight of the 20 have won over the trip), and I certainly don’t think we have a form stand-out going into the race.
Jet Blue at 8s makes the most appeal of those at the top of the market, and he could be hard to kick out the top four or five. He is your single-figure, each way angle.
I’ll probably have a bit on him after what he did here in a good time in December (actually I just have but I had to settle for [15/2]).
Outside of him, I looked for other horses that have Cheltenham experience and are very slow.
And Sounds Victorius (I haven’t spelled him incorrectly by the way) certainly fits that bill, and Port Joulain, trading in the 40s, could be another similar type for Mullins.
Sounds Victorius was a closing fourth to Jasmin De Vaux in the bumper here last year, but he has basically looked slower than a funeral procession – think Rodney in Only Fools And Horses – and you have to think 3m is going to bring about marked improvement.
And improvement is obviously necessary.
He needed all of the 2m4f to win at Fairyhouse two starts ago, and he plugged on well enough to finish fifth to Final Demand at the DRF.
He is best at 22s with two firms, but I am not interested in backing him each way here (the general four places is not an attractive angle for me with him, given you can make a case for so many and he is hardly solid), so I’ll look to back him on the exchange (I should say exchanges, but I only have one betting account…) to very small stakes.
He currently trades at 29.0 there, and he could get even bigger-win only.
I don’t think I have heard anyone say that Galopin Des Champs won’t win his third Gold Cup, and I am not a dissenter, either.
I know bookmakers have made good money on the back of such talk this week, with the likes of Majborough, Constitution Hill, Ballyburn and Jonbon, but you can’t make a cogent case against the favourite here, for all he is [8/15].
As we saw with the three chasers above though, one mistake and it could be All Over, Red Rover, even if they don’t come down, so layers have 22 fences running for them, as well as eight horses.
I do like an each-way bet in here though, not that Inothewayurthinkin, 8s in a place, but [15/2] in five places (including with AKBets), is the most accomplished jumper.
Gavin Cromwell has once again delivered on the big stage this week (just one winner but so many of his have run well – see trainerform below), and he has another live one here.
His Grand National backers may not be too happy to see him back in this race, so soon to Aintree – he was taken out of this race earlier in the season, only to be supplemented on Saturday – but that Hokey Cokey must surely be viewed as a positive here.
A ridiculously easy 8-length winner of the Kim Muir last year (at 13/8) before winning a Grade 1 at Aintree, he has been rather slow to come to the boil this season, but there were definite green and gold shoots of recovery when he was fourth to Galopin Des Champs at the DRF last time.
He shaped like the second best horse in the race.
If he jumps adequately (a worry) then he will surely finish in the first three here, and I reckon he could finish second, too.
He is [11/4] without the favourite, available in three places, and 5/4 without the jolly and Banbridge, and they strike me as very fair prices, too.
A full field of 24 for this Hunters’ Chase – two got balloted out (see below) – and I have zero knowledge to impart.
So I asked a man who does.
So step forward expert Darran Pearce, as good a judge in this discipline as you will find.
“The one horse at the head of the market I am truly against is Its On The Line.
“Maybe he will perk up for being back at Cheltenham and he clearly has been the best hunter chaser around in the last couple of years, but his two efforts this season have not been his best.
“He’s always been lazy, but his Naas run last time was a stinker and on the back of that he’s no value.
“Angels Dawn is popular based on her Kim Muir efforts the last 2 years. She beat Stumptown 2 years ago and was bang in contention when coming down at 2 out last year.
“I’ve seen people reference Stumptown’s and Inothewayurthinkin’s handicap marks as proof she is almost a good thing here, but the former’s form comes from cross-country races and the latter has clearly massively improved.
“What that does mean is she likes Cheltenham, and I think she’s the right favourite.
“What concerns me is she has basically only had one run since last year’s Kim Muir. She won a match at 1/20 in her first point so I can’t count that, but she did beat Ryehill on her other start at the end of December.
“Decent form, but I would rather she had run since then so for me there is no juice in the price. Willitgoahead jumps really well, but you can pick holes in his form and 7yos have a terrible record in the race.
“Those on at a double figure price have a fair bet, but he’s too short now.
“Ryehill was impressive at Naas last time and clearly has some engine, but his jumping is not great and I wonder if he will find himself too far back on this ground. He will be staying on better than anything though.
“I prefer to throw 4 darts e/w at horses in double figures.
“Allmankind’s (min price to take is 10/1) stamina is a concern, but I can’t ignore what he has done in winning two points this season. He beat What A Glance at Horseheath in the first of them and that is an undulating track like Cheltenham.
“He then clocked a really quick time figure when impressing in a win at Higham. He clearly retains plenty of ability and if he can see it out I think he will go very close.
“Music Drive (min price to take is 12/1) has yet to run over fences under rules, but Cappa Bleu won this race on his chasing rules debut as well. Kelly Morgan’s runner has impressed in two wins in points and he has jumped well. He looks to be improving and if he brings his point form to Cheltenham he won’t be far away.
“Fairly Famous (min price to take is 12/1) has won at Cheltenham on the last two hunter chase nights and that makes him a player. He beat Premier Magic last May on ground that wasn’t ideal so the quicker ground on Friday will be right up his street.
“He’s had two point wins at 1/4 this season and the yard did something similar when Latenightpass won the Aintree Foxhunters so it’s a tried and tested method for them.
“Finally, the one Irish horse who is still value for me is Rocky’s Howya (min price to take is 10/1).
“He made hay in Irish points 2 years ago before finishing 4th in this contest. He would have been 2nd though if a loose horse hadn’t hampered him on the run-in. He was injured last year and whilst there is a small concern he’s not in quite the same form, I think that has been factored into the price.
“He jumped round here superbly 2 years ago so the fact his jumping wasn’t so good at Limerick over Christmas doesn’t concern me.”
I only asked for a couple of lines (Do a Grange Hill “Just Say No” if you are in the racecourse toilets), and I got 637 words, so top man Darran.
Much appreciated.
Probably the two most talked-about horses coming into the Festival were Il Est Francais and Kopeck De Mee.
The latter had entries in three Cheltenham handicaps, and they have decided to come here.
If you haven’t been living under a rock, you’ll know the story, morning glory, by now and that is the UK handicappers have allowed him to race off a mark of 136 on his French form, when it is clear you can rate it much higher (or so I am told).
And when I say allow, I mean just that.
It appears the UK assessors could have given this horse any rating they wanted, as they do with the Irish.
Go and check out the ever-punchy Graeme North’s excellent article on this subject for the Sporting Life website last week – the BHA were not tied to this x 2 French translation, it seems.
Perhaps ITV, or RTV, can interview BHA head of handicapping Dominic Gardiner-Hill on Friday, instead of Gemma Collins (the latter basically turned into a continual advert for the bookmaker who gave her the invite, which I imagine the broadcaster immediately regretted).
He is the handicapper on duty at Cheltenham on Friday, along with colleague Graeme Smith, and perhaps he can add some clarity here.
Before the horse gags up.
It will surprise no-one if the horse wins apologizing here then, but backing him at [11/4] in a 24-runner handicap, when we haven’t seen him since May 2024 (though thankfully that didn’t stop Jimmy Du Seuil winning on Wednesday) is definitely not in my betting MO.
Of course, you may want to take him out of the equation altogether and play without (as bizarre as that sounds in such in a big field handicap).
I appreciate the Irish tend to dominate this race, but my two against the field are Punctuation at 50s and No Questions Asked at 25s, each way.
I have backed them both, to medium stakes.
Punctuation shaped a fair bit better than the bare form when third off this mark at Kempton last time and I like the fact that he had plenty of Cheltenham form for his previous trainer (three starts, one win).
He is only 2lb higher than when winning a big-field handicap by 3 ¾ lengths at Aintree’s Grand National meeting and I thought the 50s about him in 13 places was too big.
One firm is going 50s, six places. I actually marginally prefer him of the two at the prices.
No Questions Asked is less exposed and the 25s about him, five places, in one spot – and the 20s, six places, with two firms – is a good bet too, for all his handicap mark is a lot more exposed than a few of the Irish.
He doesn’t have Cheltenham experience but he comes here after the minimum five hurdles starts (he qualified after winning at 5s-on last month) and he looks fairly treated off 138 on his narrow second to Califet En Vol (who previously ran The New Lion to three lengths) in a good time in the Sidney Banks over an extended 2m3f.
You’d have liked to see him a touch lower in the weights, but that Huntingdon form looks strong, domestically at least.
The trip is an unknown as he steps up to 2m5f for the first time here (though he won a point over that trip) and that could bring about improvement too, given his pedigree.
It’s a slight worry perhaps, but the 25s and 20s, with extra places, is a fair trade-off for the doubt. I’d say 20s is the cut-off point in such a race.
Hansard at [16/1] each way, five places, in 2pm. That combination is available with four firms
Inothewayurthinkin at 15/2 each way in 4pm. Available with five firms (8s in a place, to take that if you can– 11/4 without favourite is fair, too)
Punctuation at 50/1 each way in 5.20pm. Available at 50s, six places, with one firm, and 50s, five places, with 11.
No Questions Asked at 25/1 each way in 5.20pm (the general 20s is fine, one firm are going 20s, six places). 25s is available with one firm, so the 20s in six places is the fairer recommendation
GOING: Good to soft
GOING STICK: 5.9 (10am Friday) – was 5.4 as at Thursday, 9am
Friday morning update: 100mm of rainfall in January and 48mm in February. 3.5mm rainfall on Monday, dry Tuesday. Light covering of snow on Wednesday, 0.5mm of rainfall after racing on Thursday. Temperatures dropped to -3.5 overnight with a dry day forecast today and temperatures of 8 degrees.
Weather: 0.4mm Friday
On Sun, 09 Mar 9:05am the watering status was Watered –
On Sat, 08 Mar 9:47am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – Watering to maintain.
On Fri, 07 Mar 8:38am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – Selective watering to maintain.
On Thu, 06 Mar 12:57pm the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – Selective watering to commence today (Thursday)
4.40pm Yippee Ki Yay and Cloudy Tuesday
5.20pm: Aston Martini, Timmy Tuesday, La Pinsonniere, Go To War, Blenkinsop, Bridie’s Beau, Hamsiyann and Kimy
4pm: Inothewayurthinkin
Blinkers 2-88 (since 2009)
Cheekpieces 1-75 (2017)
Hood 5-45 (2013) – though Proform report first-time hoods in hurdles at the Festival are 0 from 34 since 2015 (chasers are 2 from 6)
Visor 2-30 (2013)
1.20pm: East India Dock, March d’Aligre, Pappano?, Opec, Saint Lucie
2pm: Daddy Long Legs?, Ethical Diamond, Our Champ (prom), Valgrand? , Spirit d’Aunou (prom),
2.40pm: Dinoblue (prom), Allegorie De Vassy, Je T’Ai Porte
3.20pm: Argento Boy (prom), Ballybow, Derryhassen Paddy, First Confession, Fishery Lane, Inn At The Park, Intense Approach, Jasmin De Vaux, Jax Junior, Jet Blue (prom), Jig’s Forge, Port Joulain, Wendigo, Wingmen
4pm: Ahoy Senor?, Galopin Des Champs, Monty’s Star (prom), Royale Pagaille (prom)?, The Real Whacker
4.40pm (wouldn’t be totally confident here tbh): Allmankind, Bardenstown Lad, Rocky’s Howya, Shearer, West Of Carrig
5.20pm: Wodhooh (prom), No Questions Asked, Minella Sixo, The Enabler (prom), Uncle Bert, Kopeck de Mee?, Karafan, Push The Button, Electric Mason, Flash Collonges?, Mordor (prom),
Excellent: Jamie Snowden (winner on Wednesday), Olly Murphy
Good: Willie Mullins (four winners on Sunday, and six winners at Cheltenham so far), James Owen (winner on Wednesday), Gary and Josh Moore, Lucinda Russell, Killahena and McPherson, Henry De Bromhead (turned a big, big corner with two winners on Thursday, and he also had one at Limerick), Gavin Cromwell (horses running well this week. and on the mark with Stumptown – seven others have been in the first four)
Fair: Gordon Elliott (winner on Saturday and 9-2 and 11-1 winners at Limerick on Thursday, and a few placed this week at Cheltenham), Paul Nicholls (winners on Monday/Tuesday; and the big winner on Thursday), Nicky Henderson (arguably more moderate for him coming into week but winner on Tuesday, and another on Wednesday, so heading towards good), Joseph O’Brien (winner on Tuesday), Dan Skelton (moderate for him, though he had a good Wednesday at Cheltenham), Nigel Twiston-Davies (heading towards moderate), Joe Tizzard (winner on Saturday, and another on Monday), Emma Lavelle (winner on Monday), Ben Pauling (double on Wednesday), Lucy Wadham,, Tom Lacey, Ewan Whillans (winner on Wednesday), Tom Symonds (no winners), Patrick Neville, Tim Vaughan, Ross O’Sullivan, Paul Nolan (had winner of the Kim Muir on Thursday)
Moderate: Venetia Williams (running very poorly), John McConnell (33-1 runner-up in Bumper, though), Mouse Morris, Chris Gordon, D Cottin
Don’t Know: Eddie and Patrick Harty, Chris Honour (two runners, one winner), Mark Fahey, Emmet Mullins (one winner from three runners), Sophie Leech
1.20pm No shocks in here. No Its Bilbo and no Palladium, as expected. 18 runners
2pm. Just 16 in the County Hurdle for a race that could take 26.
2.40pm. Telephathique not confirmed. 9 runners.
3.20pm. No surprises. 20 go.
4pm. No surprises. 9 go.
4.40pm A full field of 24. Two balloted out, as all 26 entries confirmed.
Yippee Ki Yay and Cloudy Tuesday are the ones to miss out.
5.20pm – Kopeck De Mee runs here
A full field of 24. Eight balloted out, though two are reserves.
Reserves: Aston Martini, Timmy Tuesday
Balloted out: La Pinsonniere, Go To War, Blenkinsop, Bridie’s Beau, Hamsiyann and Kimy,
I am going to be updating each day of the Festival, daily, from the five-day stage to the day itself (if that makes sense….)
I will be adding any significant betting news etc (and weather updates, obviously), if any materialise, on a rolling daily basis.
So check in each day between now and Friday here, perhaps.
Every day will get its own fresh column (four in total, obviously), and this is the last one.
NB: Click on the race title for each race and it will take you through to the AKBets’ market.
Cheltenham announced at 12.55pm on Thursday that “Selective watering to maintain to commence today (Thursday)”.
No details/amounts given.
Friday’s update at 8.37am simply says “selective watering to maintain”.
Saturday’s update at 9.44am was “watering to maintain”.
The going stick is now 6.1 (10am Saturday), having been 6.4 at 9am on Thursday.
It remained at 6.1 as at 8.30am on Sunday.
Do we think that is good enough?
No, of course it isn’t.
It seems no-one is bothered by the lack of basic information. I’ve read a couple of articles, where the clerk of the course is interviewed, and no-one appears to have asked him how much he is putting on.
Which would obviously be most people’s first question.
Perhaps ITV will get an answer on The Opening Show on Saturday morning.
If it is necessary, then so be it (and it would appear it is), but be up front about it.
This is how Sandown have kept punters abreast of their watering this week for their Imperial Cup fixture on Saturday.
“Watering: Selective watering began on Tuesday to maintain Good ground. Repeated Wednesday – 7mm each application. Covers most of the Chase Course Back Straight, and about 2 furlongs of the Hurdle Course Back Straight. Repeated Thursday and scaled down to 4mm Friday. Pond Fence to 2nd last 5mm Friday.”
Cheltenham, under pressure in some areas, should take the small wins when they can – and a detailed and open watering policy is one of those.
There were 34 in the race on Saturday morning and there are now 23.
No surprise absentees.
East India Dock is top at [21/10] with AKBets, who are biggest about the whole field.
There were 67 in the race on Saturday morning and there are now 38.
Kopeck De Mee has been cut into favouritism for this race in the last 48 hours and he is in here, as were all the other market leaders.
Burdett Road has also been left in.
No Pied Piper, so the weights will go up 2lb.
Kopeck De Mee is [7/2].
There were 19 in the race on Saturday morning and there are now 11.
Bioluminescence, who ranged from 5 to 7s, is the big no-show, along with [13/2] chance Spindleberry.
Dinoblue is top price at [6/4] with AKBets.
There were 40 in the race on Saturday morning and there are now 26.
Final Demand and The Yellow Clay have been left in. The former is [6/4].
There were 15 in the race on Saturday morning and there are now 10.
Conflated, Grangeclere West, Grey Dawning, Hewick and L’Homme Presse have come out , as has Fact To File, the biggest absentee.
Inothewayurthinkin has been supplemented, as expected, to take it up to 10 runners.
Galopin Des Champs is top at [4/7] with AKBets.
There were 31 in the race on Saturday morning and there are now 26.
Angels Dawn and It’s On The Line are vying for favouritism.
There were 73 in the race on Saturday morning and there are now 47.
No McLaurey, who ranged from 6s to [15/2].
Kopeck De Mee is [3/1].
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