By Tony Calvin - 19 June 2025
I know it is easier to do when you are smashing it up, as Ascot are this week, but the course’s communications have been exceptional.
Racenews, their news service – if I were a big track, I’d employ them at all my major meetings – are doing a brilliant job and at 7.34pm last night we knew exactly how much water they were about to put on the track and the crowd numbers.
Chris Stickels, Ascot’s Clerk of the Course, said, in that 7.34pm press release: “Today’s racing went really well, with some fast times being posted. We will obviously water tonight. I am planning to put 6mm on the Straight Course and 5mm on the Round Course.”
Look out for the updated going stick readings across the track at 8.30am later. I’ll tweet on X and update it in here.
They are now updated.
In addition, they also confirmed the crowd figure for day three of Royal Ascot was 65,718, up by 5.1 per cent on last year’s total of 62,549.
So well played to all at Ascot, from the likes of Director Of Racing Nick Smith and Head Of Corporate & Industry Affairs Will Aitkenhead, to the lowly hacks they employ to keep us informed in such a timely manner.
The meeting has been a triumph so far.
And if that doesn’t get me an invite into the Royal Enclosure next year, by which time I should have retired gracefully, so should be work-free and able to attend – ITV Racing keep telling us Ascot caters for “normal people”, after all (I think ‘Cesca said that, and I’m not joking) – then nothing will.
Right, enough of the positivity, I need to get stuck into somebody….
After my bet of the day, the big drifter Caspi Star, finished an unlucky 23-length last of 11 in the Ribbesdale – on another day, and a fairer wind, she could have finished 10th – I was looking down the end of a barrel, and it wasn’t full of blanks.
Well, I guess it was a financial blank.
But fine margins may as well be miles in this game, and the narrow success of Arabian Story in the Britannia, sandwiched between a winning ante-post play on Trawlerman and a morning exchange bet on a then-weak Trinity College, ensured the gun was temporarily put down.
I felt for the backers of the neck runner-up in the Britannia, La Botte, who clearly was hugely unlucky.
But only for about two seconds.
Tough luck lads, wear it.
Fine margins.
I am not a fan of the boom culture, never have been – mainly because I have so few winners to trumpet – but I have noticed that the ITV Racing X timeline, and the Racing Post website, have become the worst examples of this “flag the winners, ignore the losers” phenomenon.
It’s all rather ghastly and tacky.
“Normal people” should not behave like this at Royal Ascot.
I must admit that it hadn’t occurred to me what a superb staying performance it is from ITV Racing at Royal Ascot, until someone praised them on X.
Hold my beer, Trawlerman, say the ITV posse.
Hang on, bear with me, I am just trying to find the tweet.
My memory is not all it was, sorry.
Just found it. Samantha Martin said the following:
“The ITV show today was fantastic. You have to appreciate that there’s literally zero shade in their parade ring position and four and a half hours on air is a massive challenge anyway. Great interviews, reference to betting, the horses etc. Racing is lucky to have them!”
Martin is a young journalist on the up (she will go far with that level of brown-nosing – that’s a joke, obviously….) but she clearly can’t count – I think ITV are on air from 1.30pm to 6.30pm, and they even have the lack of self-awareness to try to sing at the end of it – but her point is an excellent one, even if the “reference to betting” line was rather bizarre.
Reference? The sport is bloody funded by it.
Five hours of live broadcasting is an amazing achievement, in all seriousness.
Even if Ed Chamberlin was the only person at the track who didn’t know the Britannia was only four places (some rogue operators went five, a very poor show) as the bookies give all their profits from the race to charity, as is tradition these days.
But, reading reports of a bookmaker bloodbath on Thursday, that was probably the square root of fuck all this year.
Will the Aidan O’Brien juvenile domination of this meeting continue?
His Signora was as big as 6s on Wednesday, and started Thursday as a top-priced [11/4], even though she finished nearly 2 lengths behind Green Sense (also in here) in a strong Group 3 won by Lady Iman at Naas last time.
But that was Signora’s debut (Green Sense had previously won on her debut) and you have to assume plenty of improvement will be forthcoming.
She certainly wasn’t given a hard time there and they must have thought a bit of her to give her racecourse bow in Group company. By Frankel out of Queen Mary winner Heartache, she has been backed into [15/8] (in just two places), and the market is expecting significant progress.
You can obviously say the same for all of these, and we have six once-raced winners in here, including Venetian Sun, who is now available at 11s (nearly 16s on Betfair – another big Burke drifter after Naval Light yesterday) having opened up as the 3s favourite with one firm on Wednesday.
She won well at Carlisle and Karl Burke has been raving about her but I bet he was slightly deflated when she was drawn in one (it’ll be interesting to see those updated stick readings across the track at 8.30am), and maybe Donnacha O’Brien was saying the same after his Balantina was handed trap four.
Fitzella is the solid one for me each way, four places, but she was cut from [13/2] on Thursday afternoon and that trimming continued overnight and she is now just [9/2].
Her debut second here is not working out as well as seemed likely at the time, but that course experience can’t be a bad thing, and you had to be taken with her when she dismissed the touted and well-backed newcomer Tahalel (also in here) with some ease at Haydock.
The time was good, but her price has ebbed away and I can see the alternative case for Tahalel at 18s – she is 30+ on Betfair – given she was sent off at [6/5] to beat Fitzella and shaped well enough in finishing a 3 1/2-length second.
We all know how juveniles can sprout wings on their second start; it was quite sobering to see Charles Darwin finished fourth of seven at [4/6] on his debut.
I am not sure if I am getting involved personally though, now that Fitzella price has come in two points.
And that O’Brien juvenile dominance may well continue here.
I won’t keep you too long here, as this doesn’t really appeal as a serious betting race either.
The obvious starting point – and probably the start and end point for many – is Guineas third Shadow Of Light, who clearly boasts the best form in this (he has upwards of 5lb in hand on official figures),
A lot has been made of the fact that he wasn’t ridden optimally in the Classic, making a very strong move on the outside, only for it to peter out a touch close home, and if he can improve on that then it could be game over here.
The drop to 6f could easily to be a positive for a horse who won a Middle Park by 4 lengths at two (albeit on soft ground), as well as the Dewhurst the butchers, and he could well be the one to end Charlie Appleby’s barren spell at this meeting.
But at just [7/4] now, I can let him dance in, unbacked.
The Juddmonte pair of Babouche and Jonquil, the form horses behind the favourite, are the obvious each-way alternatives but they are priced accordingly at 5s and [13/2] respectively.
If you wanted a wild swing, Diablo Rojo is 80s with AKBets and a three-figure price on the exchange, for all he is drawn in three.
And that’s why he is the price he is after Thursday’s draw bias.
He has had just the five starts and he ran a cracker here when just touched off ½ length by Big Mojo last time – if you like the winner at 16s, you have to love him at 80s, surely? – and he could well outrun his massive odds, especially if the visor (the first time the trainer has used one) works. His dam wore one.
I have backed him in the win and place markets on Betfair. Very small because the liquidity just isn’t there at the moment.
He may well be beaten after a furlong if the draw bias kicks in again, but it’s a small-stakes play, if anything.
Ethical Diamond – I always think of Peter Naughton when hearing the first word (he is/was the Ethical Edge, for those of you who have never heard of him – that’s probably everyone) – is the general [4/1] favourite in this full field of 19 in this.
There is [9/2] available in a place.
Of course he can win, but he is 2lb higher than when fourth in this race last year and his price looks a little cramped, as most of these Willie Mullins/Ryan Moore combos tend to be.
And his draw in seven may not be ideal, but Moore may decide to try to bounce him out, as he did once when winning over hurdles.
The Wathnan-owned French Duke will obviously be primed for this on his reappearance, and he ticks the course form box (has run well on both starts here, including when sixth in the King George V handicap here last season), and he was a fair price at 10s.
He has been gelded since we last saw him and this has been a very long term plan, but the 10s has become 6s.
Naqeeb at 20s would be my bigger-priced dart (I have backed him each way at 28s, five places), but that is another horse whose price has largely gone – mind you, he is 40+ on Betfair win-only – and that also applies to Almosh’her, drawn widest here in 22 (effectively 19 of 19).
He was 7s and [13/2] when I first drafted this column on Thursday but he is a general 4s now, and [9/2] in a place.
The value is sucked out of these early markets so quickly it is untrue. And for precious little money too, no doubt.
He has a lot going for him if he drifts back out though.
A head away from being three from three from Charlie Fellowes, he was sent to Karl Burke for the rest of this campaign and proceeded to beat Stressfree by a head at York on his stable debut.
He was always holding the runner-up there and did it a bit snugly and he actually meets Stressfree on 3lb better terms here, as David O’Meara’s horse came out and won well at Haydock.
Wathnan Racing came a calling after the York win and he runs in their colours here, and Almosh’her surely has a lot more to give after just the four starts.
He has no Ascot form, and he will have to get down and dirty against experienced, hard-knocking handicappers here – plus he hasn’t done it on the clock yet – but I’d hope Clifford Lee takes the cowards’ route and brings him wide on the bend and up the straight, out of trouble.
The big field is an undoubted worry, as Burke reckons he is still a baby and can be a bit of a “livewire” – watch out for him in the preliminaries – and I suspect he has enough in hand to take advantage of a mark of 98.
But a general 4s chance in this race?
Not on your life.
Mount Atlas is yet another horse who has been trimmed in – he was 10s in a place yesterday afternoon – and he is now [13/2] fixed-odds and [8/1] win-only on the exchange, and I have just backed him at the latter place.
There is 7s in a place, fixed-odds.
You have to love his draw in 17 around 1m4f here, he has winning course and distance form and this lightly-raced 4yo comes here after a career-best fifth to Illinois and Al Qareem (subsequent Gold Cup second and York winner respectively) in the Ormonde Stakes.
He went up 4lb for that, but maybe he was lucky not to get a bit more given the calibre of horses he finished so close to.
Some jockeys tried to go up the inside from wide draws yesterday, but I doubt Rob Hornby will be making that mistake.
He is now available at [12.5] on the exchange as at 11am. I’ve had a bit of that.
Despite the absence of Lake Victoria, Zarigana had been weak in the market for this race until yesterday evening, when the [5/2] was taken and she is now 2s.
She had been shorter still in the ante-post betting last week, though.
If that has something to do with Shes Perfect blowing out in the French Oaks I think that is misplaced – the Fellowes filly clearly didn’t stay, stepping up to 1m2f+ – but it probably has a lot more to do with the supplemented Falakayeh being a filly of considerable promise.
I’d be happy enough taking both of them – Falakeyah is [11/4] here and maybe the bookmakers will sense a rare result here – and playing each-way against them, and Simmering at 50s looks overpriced.
You have to forgive her an underwhelming run in the Irish 1,000 Guineas last time – a race in which stablemate Flight didn’t excel either after a brilliant second at Newmarket – but 50s each way underplays her chance.
That is available in eight places.
She had previously finished a 2-length third in the 1,000 Guineas and what makes her of further interest is her Ascot record and on good to firm ground.
She finished second in the Albany Stakes here last season and then won a Group 3 at the track and, as we have seen time and again, course form is a huge plus.
And hopefully first-time cheekpieces will be too, not that the trainer’s record in this area (see below) is particularly bet-inducing.
The fast ground is a big plus, too.
She has now drifted to 66s.
I can see the each-way cases for Cathedral, Kon Tiki and January too, but the latter’s price collapsed when Ryan Moore was confirmed for her and she is now a stand-out [13/2] with AKBets, having been available at 16s in a place, pre-jocks, on Wednesday.
Anyway, let’s have a boilover with Simmering please.
Sorry.
Miss Nightfall is perhaps the worst example this week of a ridiculous price collapse in a short space of time.
What has happened to this game?
It was tipster-led at 16s but how the hell could a horse shorten from 16s to 5s in about two hours in a Royal Ascot handicap (as she did on Thursday), for what would have been precious little money?
Yes, I get the ever-apparent high draw bias on Thursday played its part in bookies taking cover (she is drawn 28 of 28) and strong cases have been made for her.
But come on.
Baldy Ben Linfoot was the first to tip her at 16s on the Sporting Life site, then Hugh Taylor (the biggest price-crusher of them all) chimed in just after 4pm at 12s and 11s.
Then she collapsed within the hour.
She is now top at 4s, and as short as 3s.
A sorry state of affairs.
Sometimes you look at a race and have to finally admit defeat, and this 28-runner Sandringham has pretty much beaten me, and that is before you factor in prices being cut right, left and centre.
If you wanted a blindfolded dart, then Betty Clover in 23 would be it.
But even her price has gone from 12s to 10s in one place.
She finished eighth in the Queen Mary last season and then went on to finish second to Simmering here in that Group 3, and she has been in rude health this term.
She was only just a nose away from beating Wednesday’s winning gamble Crimson Advocate at Goodwood two starts ago and probably ran to a similar level when third in a Group 2 at France last time.
A mark of 100 looks fair on those efforts, and it could be win number two at the meeting for Eve Johnson Houghton.
I’ve just backed her win-only at 12s on Betfair, small.
I wonder what price Miss Nightfall will go off at?
I can fully see the case for the hugely progressive gelding Amiloc and I may have a small bet on him to ensure I don’t lose if he wins at the current [3.5] on Betfair – the stable form isn’t great, mind you – but I can’t see why Wimbledon Hawkeye is available at 14s (and even bigger on the exchange, where I have backed him win-only at 16s, too ).
I’m backing him each way at 14s, for all his best days may be behind him.
But his best days are still better than these can currently muster.
Well, I can see why he is being opposed, as everyone knows how badly the Dante form worked out in the Derby and he does have his stamina to prove.
But formwise we aren’t judging him solely on that 3-length third at York, as he finished second to a certain Field Of Gold in the Craven and ran a solid race when fifth in the Guineas.
The stamina question does concern me but he is just about the best horse going into this race, and the first-time cheekpieces will hopefully help.
James Owen is a fair 6-29 with this angle (not far off his general strike-rate), so 14s each-way is certainly not a bet I’d be keen to lay. He has now drifted to 16s.
Zahrann is closing in on Amiloc for favouritism, but I have just backed Green Storm at [46.0], too. The Derby seventh will hopefully sit right behind the presumed pacemaker Galveston , and he simply looks overpriced on his Group 1 body of work.
Puppet Master is a big NR in this as at 10.50am, taken out on the advice of the vet. He ranged between [7/2] and 4s for this.
Ryan Moore switches to Galveston and I am surprised he is still available at 40s. He will be a pacemaker, no more.
Wathnan Racing’s Realign has been the buzz horse for this race for a while, and there was talk of William Haggas wanting to roll those mythical big dice (should be die, but dice sounds better) and go for a Group race with this horse, instead of trying to exploit a mark of 93.
If Haggas thinks he is worth a try at that level then you can see why the Salisbury maiden winner (second to Shadow Of Light on his debut) is [9/2] here, and I will take a similar approach to him that I will to Amiloc earlier.
That is, not lose if he wins, even if I am not sure about his draw in nine, though there is pace everywhere in this 5f cavalry charge. He is currently [5.6] on Betfair.
However, I am going to stick to the headgear angle and back Richard Fahey’s Mearall at a general 50s, six places, in this (a combination that is generally available). He is 40s, seven places,
The hood angle with this trainer is very profitable (not with Loom last week, though he looks a 5f horse through and through, not a 6f merchant) and I liked the way Mearall travelled for a long way on his comeback at York.
The handicapper was a bit tight in dropping him a mere 1lb for that run but every little helps and hopefully the hood will, too.
This is what Richard Fahey said about the horse in his Sporting Life column: “He could be a bit of a dark horse in this. He’s had one run this year which he needed and I was delighted he snuck in right at the bottom. He’ll be a big price, and I wouldn’t forget about him. I think a test like this will be right up his street.”
Make of that what you will. I’ve backed him each way and at [100.0] on the exchange, win-only. His draw in 12 could have been better, and maybe could have been worse.
Let’s wait for the updated going stick readings.
Which we now have. See below.
Going – Straight: Good to firm; Round: Good to firm
Going stick: Stands side: 8.7, Centre: 8.4, Farside: 8.5. Round: 7.1 (updated at 8.30am today)
Forecast: Dry, warm and hot.
Soil Moisture: 37%.
Friday morning course update: Dry over the past 24 hours to 6.30am Friday. 0.4mm rain recorded over the past 7 days. It is forecast be dry and warm through to the end of the week. Max temps forecast to be 29c today. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Watering history: Watered straight 6mm and round 5mm Thursday night. Watered whole track 5mm Wednesday night. Watered whole track 5mm Tuesday night. Watered: straight course 6mm on Monday and 5mm on Round course Monday night. Watered 10mm on the straight course last Saturday, Thursday and Tuesday. Watered 5mm on round course on Sunday and Saturday nights and 3mm on Thursday night and Tuesday nights. The current plan for the week is to water each night to replace moisture lost through evapotranspiration.
Other
Royal Ascot Owners and Trainers information on Ascot Racecourse website can be accessed by going to: www.ascot.com/owners-trainers-royal-ascot
Rails: The rail that was in place on the round course for the past two days has been removed providing fresh ground for Thursday from approx 9f out to the home straight
Stalls: Straight Course: Centre. Round Course: Inside
3.40pm: Crystal Flyer, Cumulonimbus, Kildare Legend, Sir Lowry’s Pass, Master Builder, The Reverend, Insanity, Small Fry Oneforthegutter, Mustazeed ,Great Bedwyn, ,City of Deligh tCloud Seeker, Knightswood,, Killybegs Warrior Fox Journey, Brilliant Light, Houstonn, Scottish Anthem, Masoun Too Soon, Marhaba The Champ, Garden Route, Serious Contender, Propose, Light As Air
6.10pm: An Outlaw’s Grace, Topwarrior, Gold Star Hero, Nad Alshiba Green, Xanthe, Leadenhall Street, Fuji Mountain, Gazelle d’Or,, Mission Command, Blinky Far Above The Law, Elouise’s Prince, Seraphim Angel, Wheels of Fire, Cressida Wildes, Glorious Kitty
Raphael Freire visor (0-0) – Diablo Rojo, 3.05pm
Gerard Keane cheekpieces 2-13 (since 2016) – War Rooms, 3.40pm
Alan King visor 10-88 (2009) – HMS President, 3.40pm
Archie Watson cheekpieces 25-273 (2017) – Duty First, 4.20pm & Zayer, 6.10pm
Ollie Sangster cheekpieces (3-20) – Shimmering, 4.20pm
Ralph Beckett blinkers 39-257 (2009) – Tabiti, 5pm
Joseph O’Brien cheekpieces 21-182 (2016) – Dancing Teapot, 5pm
John and Thady Gosden blinkers 10-67 (2021) – Nightwalker, 5.35pm
James Owen cheekpieces 6-29 (2024) – Wimbledon Hawkeye, 5.35pm
George Boughey blinkers 5-41 (2019) – Englemere, 6.10pm
Richard Fahey hood 14-83 (2012) – Mearall, 6.10pm
2.30pm: Balantina (drawn 4), Fitzella (13), Indigo Dawn (12), Magny Cours (16), Senorita Vega (15)
3.05pm: Arizona Blaze (20), Berkshire Whisper (13), Idea Of March (22), Soldier’s Heart (8), Strong Warrior (9), Whistlejacket (11), Sayidah Dariyan (7), Shisospicy (2)
3.40pm: Mutaawid (8), Hand Of God (10)?, Almosh’her (22), Ethical Diamond? (7), Satin (2)
4.20pm: Duty First (8), Exactly (4), Falakeyah (2), Flight (11)
5pm: Tabiti (1), Serving With Style (19), Mojave River (4), Bountiful (17), Amangani (26), Oolong Poobong (21), Cartwheel (24), Sea Poetry (9), Purple Rainbow (14), Bassadanza (12), Alfareqa (27), Ryka (22), Eazy On The Eye (15)
5.35pm: Galveston (4), Green Storm (10)
6.10pm: Hammer The Hammer (17), Mr Lightside (29), Candy (15), Redorange (4), Bodhi Bear (11), Realign (9), Ruby’s Profit (21), Dark Cloud Rising (27), Suhail Star (1), Mearall (12)
Excellent: John and Thady Gosden (five winners already this week), Aidan O’Brien (five winners so far, too)
Good: William Haggas, Andrew Balding, Hugo Palmer, George Boughey, James Owen, F-H Graffard, Owen Burrows, Roger Varian, M D O’Callaghan, Eddie and Patrick Harty, Harry Eustace, Willie Mullins, David Simcock, Heather Main, Adrian Nicholls
Fair: Simon and Ed Crisford, Richard Hannon, Joseph O’Brien, Ollie Sangster, Ed Walker, Adrian Murray, Kevin Ryan, Archie Watson, Ralph Beckett (moderate for him), Richard Hughes, Jane Chapple-Hyam, George Scott (hitting form), Karl Burke, Charlie Johnston, Raphael Freire, Richard Fahey, David O’Meara, J A Stack, Dylan Cunha, Jamie Osborne, Paul Attwater (four runners; one 6-1 winner), James Fanshawe, Eve Johnson Houghton (Ascot winner on Wednesday), Daniel McLoughlin, Tom Dascombe, Newland and Insole (winner on Wednesday), Mick Appleby, Julie Camacho, Harry Charlton, Gerard Keane, Jessie Harrington, Joseph Murphy, Emma Lavelle, Ed Bethell, Jack Jones, Ismael Mohammed, Johnny Murtagh, Seb Spencer, Robert Cowell, Charlie Appleby (fair for him, anyway), Donnacha O’Brien (9-1 winner on Thursday night)
Moderate: Hilal Kobeissi, Richard Spencer, Jack Davison, Ger Lyons
Don’t know: Jorge Delgado, Jose Francisco D’Angelo, Xavier Blanchet, M Al Attiya
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