TONY CALVIN: Day 2 of Aintree – Hugely fancy a 20/1 chance on Friday, and a few others, too

 1.45pm – 2/1 Handstands has drifted to a fairer price

What surprised me most when the market re-opened for this race on Wednesday morning was that Handstands was put in so short.

It doesn’t register on the Oddschecker price history but one firm definitely went [5/4] about him first thing on Wednesday.

His current price of [2/1] certainly better reflects his chance in this 3m1f Grade 1 novices’ chase, as this race has a fair bit of depth to it.

Just how soft (or otherwise) the ground rides here could be key to finding the winner – they may well water again on Thursday evening, by the way – as the market leaders would ideally prefer plenty of dig.

I’d actually argue that Handstands has drifted to a mildly enticing price now, not that I will be backing up that statement with a bet myself.

So I guess what follows is all a bit hollow.

But Ben Pauling’s chaser has come a very long way since an inauspicious chasing debut at Wincanton in November, showing his 3m stamina when winning at Sandown the following month and then edging out Arkle winner Jango Baie over 2m4f in heavy ground.

That is just about the best form on offer in here, and that proven stamina – and maybe freshness – makes him a more appealing betting prospect than Caldwell Potter, who will have far more pace pressure on the front end than he received when so impressive at Cheltenham.

He has drifted to [23/10] with AKBets.

2.20pm – 7/1 Impose Toi will take some kicking out of the first five or six

Kopeck De Mee had more column inches than most going into the Cheltenham Festival, only to be beaten 52 lengths in the Martin Pipe when sent off the [5/2] favourite.

The handicapper refused to drop him even 1lb for that run, which was probably a nod to the mild furore that accompanied him being given a handicap mark of 136 on his French form, which plenty argued was rather lenient.

Anyway, he has already worked himself to favouritism again here at [6/1], which is very much a leave-it price for me.

I am going to throw a few quid at Hansard at 40-plus win-only on Betfair as I thought he shaped pretty well in the County Hurdle and this longer trip may allow him to fulfil his potential.

It’s a guess-up though, while the case for Impose Toi is rather more obvious (and maybe compelling).

He is actually weak on the exchange at the moment (at 10.5, in an admittedly very illiquid market) but I thought Impose Toi was a very backable each-way proposition at [7/1] in three places.

One of those firms offer six places, so take that betting combination if you can.

It appears they deliberately tucked him away for the Cheltenham Festival after winning at Newbury in November and their patience and planning was very nearly rewarded in the Coral Cup, only to be thwarted by an even longer long-term plot by Willie Mullins.

It was obviously still a great run and a 4lb rise wouldn’t bother me too much, given this is a 7yo having just his 10^th start over hurdles and just the 12^th in his career, having won a couple of bumpers in France as a 4yo.

I’d be rather surprised if more than four or five beat him home here.

He is now [8/1] with AKBets.

2.55pm – Stable form the one worry about Romeo Coolio, well maybe one of two

I’d have plenty of time for Tripoli Flyer and Salvator Mundi, but Romeo Coolio’s form in finishing third in the Supreme is head and shoulders ahead of those.

Well, maybe just a head.

More of that in a moment but I’ll flag two possible negatives for those tempted to take the [6/4] with AKBets.

The first is the usual Cheltenham to Aintree dilemma, but a bigger problem is maybe the form of the Gordon Elliott yard, which is pretty moderate of late.

Now, I appreciate big Festivals focus trainers’ minds and planning, and the lead-ups with lesser horses are largely irrelevant – think Gavin Cromwell and Henry de Bromhead at Cheltenham – but it’s still a nagging doubt when backing short ones.

However, I take the view that Romeo Coolio’s third in the Supreme – hardly an original thought, granted – is very strong form, underlined by the time figure.

If he runs to that form, he’ll take a lot of whacking, but I can always resist a bet at these odds.

Mind you, he has drifted to [13/8] now.

3.30pm –  No real issues with Jonbon being 4/7

One firm opened up with [4/6] about Jonbon on Wednesday morning, and that was quickly taken. I’ve no arguments with the current [4/7] about a horse who is three from three around here, and who is much the likeliest winner.

Of course, plenty would argue that he wouldn’t win this race more than seven times in 11 given his occasional propensity to take a fence home with him.

And perhaps more pertinently point to the opposition, with El Fabiolo a mighty rival if Mullins can coax this horse back to the 2023 model who handed Jonbon his arse in the Arkle.

And Protektorat and Matata (unproven over the trip) are clearly hugely capable performers.

Do I think Jonbon will win?

Yes.

Would I back him?

Not on your nelly.

4.05pm – 20/1 Excello the bet of the day

Excello looks the bet of the day at the general 16s, so take the 20s and 18s out there (the 22s was taken earlier on Thursday morning). The 20s is with one firm, and the 18s is available in two spots.

With the enhanced place terms on offer, I’d definitely look to back him each way, for all 30 runners arguably makes this an unattractive race for that approach.

I fully accept that, but if he gets round – and he has never fallen or unseated, from his French days onwards – I don’t expect Excello to be out of the first six.

If this has been a long-term plan for this horse, then Nicky Henderson has played an absolute blinder in getting him in here on a mark of 132.

He also had a monumental piece of luck, as the horse was the last one in on Wednesday morning, with seven balloted out. Nicky would have had a nervous few minutes when tracking the decs, that is for sure.

But Excello is here on a mark some 14lb lower than he was after beating Solo over 2m5f at Ascot in December 2023.

And he has only had three chase starts since, so the handicapper has been ridiculously generous here.

I can’t work it out.

The horse is only a six-year-old, after all, with just seven chase starts to his name.

They kept him to hurdles for his first four outings this season and then he got his eye back in over fences with an excellent close fourth over 3m at Sandown last time, a trip that stretches his stamina to the limit.

Back to 2m5f off a hugely attractive handicap mark, he surely has to go well if standing up and not making a bad error or experiencing bad luck (not a big price) in this huge field.

Henderson has a great record with first-time cheekpieces, so I take that as a huge plus, and he also has a very good record in this race.

He has won this race three times in recent seasons (consecutively from 2013-15 and all three were ex-French like Excello), and five times in total, and Fantastic Lady (also in here) was second at 25s in 2023.

4.40pm – 4/1 Califet En Vol should be clear favourite

I’d be a big fan of Mister Meggit, but not particularly of the trainer (s), and the fact that we haven’t seen the horse since he won here in November and he runs here in a first-time tongue-tie, is a worry for me, so he is easily passed over at 4s.

At the same price, Califet En Vol holds much stronger claims in my book.

He is unproven over the 3m trip but everything about him suggests it will see him improve for it. And his form coming into the race is pretty much on a par with any of these.

An easy winner over 2m5f earlier in the season, he then bumped into The New Lion at Newbury (flattered, but beaten just 3 lengths all the same) and then stamina won him the day over 2m3f+ in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon last time, getting into top gear close home to take the spoils.

I suppose some may argue that 4s is hardly a bargain price in a 15-runner race with plenty of depth – there is no form stand-out, and several will fancy their chances – but I have backed him each way at [9/2] and I’ll press up at the 4s (available in seven places).

Of course, the stamina is an unknown but his run-style strongly hints that 3m will suit here and his dam was a dual 3m winner with a staying pedigree.

He is now [9/2] with three firms.

5.15pm – Another go on 20/1 Luttrell Lad may be required

A rather tricky 22-runner conditional jockeys’ 2m103yd handicap hurdle.

It was even trickier last year as I seem to remember the race was delayed for an age, and some horses were badly inconvenienced.

I also recall having a good go on Luttrell Lad in this race – he finished a respectable six-length seventh of 19 but I was expecting a lot more, as he never really got it into before staying on late  – and he is back for more here.

And I probably will have to have a little on him at 20s each way, five places, here.

It’ll be a small bet, though.

He has got progressively better with each run this season and he won nicely enough at Taunton last time from an in-form Aurigny Mill.

He went up a very fair 3lb for that victory in mid-February and that still leaves him on a 5lb lower mark than his seventh in this race last year, and some 11lb below his career-peak.

He probably hasn’t kicked on from his bumper days as expected (he was fourth in the Grade 2 at this meeting in 2021) but he could just outrun his odds here.

I’m hoping he was put away after that Taunton win to come here deliberately fresh.

There are no end of dangers clearly, but Hamsiyann is feared on his Cheltenham win in November. He ran no race at Musselburgh last time when a [13/8] poke, but that hasn’t deterred some from taking all the fancy prices (18s, 16s, 14s and 12s) on Wednesday and he is now 10s best in two places after the 11s was snapped on early on Thursday morning.

The 10s could still be okay.

BEST BET

Excello at [16/1] each way in 4.05pm. He is 16s, seven places, with one firm; 20s, six places, with another, and 18s in two spots, so take any of those prices  if you can.

 

AINTREE GROUND AND WEATHER – updated 7.06am Friday (5-6mm watering after racing on Thursday)

 

MILDMAY COURSES

Hurdle (going stick 5.3, Friday 9am): Good to soft, good in places

Chase (5.5, Friday 9am): Good to soft, good in in places

 

NATIONAL COURSE 

 

Good to soft (going stick reading of 5.3, Friday 10am)

Friday morning course update:  Watering commenced w/c 17th March. An average of 65-75mm applied including 5-6mm overnight after racing.

Watering

Weather: 16 degrees and sunny all week

Rails: Hurdle rails: +4yds both bends Chase rails: +4yds Home bend and +3yds Anchor Bridge bend GN Chase: bend approaching GN13 +3yds and Home bend +4yds.

• 1:45pm: Race distance is now +41y to 3m 1f 31y
• 2:20pm: Race distance is now +37y to 2m 4f 37y
• 2:55pm: Race distance is now +29y to 2m 132y
• 3:30pm: Race distance is now +29y to 2m 4f 9y
• 4:05pm: Race distance is now +15y to 2m 5f 34y
• 4:40pm: Race distance is now +41y to 3m 190y
• 5:15pm: Race distance is now +29y to 2m 132y

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

 

Neil Mulholland hood 4-56 (2013) – Ike Sport, 2.20pm

 

Tom Lacey cheekpieces 9-40 (since 2017) – Tune In A Box, 2.20pm

 

Paul Nicholls cheekpieces 22-86 (2016) – Ginny’s Destiny. 4.05pm

 

Martin Keighley visor 5-39 (2010) – Escaria Ten. 4.05pm

 

Nicky Henderson cheekpieces 19-93 (2016) – Excello, 4.05pm

 

Bailey and Nicholls cheekpieces 0-1 (14-1 2nd Isle Of Gold, 2025) – Moon Rocket, 4.40pm

 

Kim Bailey cheekpieces 11-69 (2016) – as above

 

Ben Pauling cheekpieces 9-77 (2016) – Fiercely Proud, 5.15pm

 

Harry Derham cheekpieces 2-9 (2023) – Lario 5.15pm

 

BALLOTED OUT (money back for ante-post punters)

 

2.20pm: Minella Rescue, Hamsiyann, Dominic’s Fault, Imperial Jade

 

4.05pm: Booster Bob, Mayhem Mya, Tyre Kicker, Statuario, Highstakesplayer, Vintage Fizz, If Not For Dylan

 

5.15pm: Big Boy Bobby, Big Ginge, Lunar Discovery, Static, Hara Kiri, Sisterandbrother

 

PACE MAPS (manually done)

 

1.45pm Aintree:  Caldwell Potter, Dancing City, Handstands, Quai De Bourbon (prom), The Changing Man?, Don’t Rightly Know

 

2.20pm Aintree:  Beacon Edge?, Steel Ally, Brentford Hope?, Kopeck De Mee, Wellington Arch

 

2.55pm Aintree: Karbau, Royal Infantry?, Diva Luna

 

3.30pm Aintree: Matata, Jonbon?, Protektorat?

 

4.05pm Aintree : Ash Tree Meadow , James Du Berlais (prom), Ginny’s Destiny, Minella Drama, Soul Icon, Eldorado Allen, Adamantly Chosen (prom), Gemirande, Shantreusse, Jetoile, Lisnamult Lad, Western Zephyr, Escaria Ten

 

4.40pm Aintree: Battle Born Lad, Familiar Dreams

 

NOTE: Jet Blue has been declared a NR at 12.46pm on Wednesday due to a temperature

 

5.15pm Aintree: Alnilam, Celtic Dino, Grimaud, Slugger, Manuelito, Afadil (prom), Jack Hyde

 

TRAINERFORM (manually done)

Oustanding: Willie Mullins

Excellent:  Olly Murphy, Killahena and McPherson (three runners, three winners), Jamie Snowden, Ryan Potter, Chris Honour, Hobbs and White

Good: Lucinda Russell, Anthony Honeyball, Fergal O’Brien, Joe Tizzard, Neil Mulholland, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Martin Keighley, Henry Daly

Fair: Dan Skelton (bordering good after Thursday), Ben Pauling, Nicky Henderson, Joseph O’Brien, Paul Nicholls (winner on Thursday), Harry Derham, Tom Lacey, Gavin Cromwell, Donald McCain, Brian Ellison, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Ian Donoghue, Evan Williams, Gary Hanmer, Charlie Longsdon, Neil King, Jedd O’Keeffe, Tom Ellis, John McConnell (fair for him anyway!), Mark Walford, Bailey and Nicholls (small sample), Alan King, Gary and Josh Moore

Moderate: Gordon Elliott (despite the Wodhooh run), Harry Fry (very small sample),  Henry De Bromhead (maybe more fair), Peter and Michael Bowen (2-5 winner on Wednesday though), Tony Martin (though maybe harsh as couple have gone close)

Don’t know: Venetia Williams (been very quiet after a poor March), Polly Gundry, Sam Thomas, Jonathan Sweeney, Mouse Morris (though one runner, one winner), Keiran Burke, Paul John Gilligan, Suzy Smith, Sophie Leech, Shaun Harris, David Cottin, Nick Kent