TONY CALVIN: SWINGING THE BAT FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WEEK

1.20pm – The bigger the field the bigger the certainty? Really?

I have never got my head around the betting phrase “the bigger the field, the bigger the certainty.”

I am sure it must have got bastardised down the years, as with the nonsensical “each-way bet to nothing” line (just think about it, ffs).

I gathered someone said one of those stupid utterances in the William Hill betting shop at Cheltenham yesterday, and someone rightly objected….

By the way, the rotund chap with the dirty blindside punch surely needs to have his size 23 collar felt by The Fuzz.

That was filth.

I’d also nick the bloke at the end of the video who wilfully stepped on the suffering poor bastard’s cap.

Anyway, if you subscribe to the first theory, then you can back Bambino Fever at [11/10] to beat 21 rivals in this mares’ novices’ hurdle.

Clearly, last year’s bumper winner has a great chance.

She probably found the ground a touch too testing when narrowly beaten at 4s-on by Oldschool Outlaw, the second favourite in here at 5s, at Naas on her return in December and she had an afternoon stroll when winning at 10s-on at Fairyhouse last time.

If you are backing her, then you are banking on that bumper form coming to the fore, but it wouldn’t be for me, you won’t be surprised to read (mind you, read on…)

And the first-time tongue-tie would concern me too, a little.

Outside of the favourite, you can throw darts at several of these, which isn’t surprising when you look at their winning profiles and hurdling form which is basically on a par with Bambino Fever.

Maybe, Carrigmoorna Spruce has a bit going for her. She was a good bumper horse and she was by no means disgraced when second to Skylight Hustle in a Grade 1 last time.

Declan Queally has had a couple of recent winners (albeit they were short-priced favourites) so the case for her is okay at a double-figure price (currently 14.0 to pennies).

But okay isn’t quite cutting it for me in betting terms here. It clearly isn’t an each-way betting race either, given the close-knit depth behind the favourite.

An awful betting race unless you want to lay the favourite at around 5/4, which I may do. But I haven’t decided yet.

But it is a no-bet start as it stands.

Be warned – there is rain about tomorrow (maybe 11mm from 2pm) onwards.

And Old Cowboy is an early NR in the 2pm (temperature).

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.40am): This is a static market.  Bambino Fever is a solid 11/10 chance.

2pm – Meetmebythesea for me, but so many of these have a chance

The punted Sixmilebridge is a big NR as at 9.17am (going)

Just the 18 runners in here now Old Cowboy came out early on Wednesday (10.18am) with a temperature, so this is easy, isn’t it?

Errr, no….

A lot of the talk in the lead-up to this 2m4f novices’ handicap chase has centred around the claims of Meetmebythesea and Regent’s Stroll.

Obviously, you can see both, and I’d prefer Meetmebythesea, who ticked the qualification box by running in a race he couldn’t win in the Game Spirit at Newbury last time and has drifted to [15/2] this afternoon and 8s+ on the exchange.

His two chase wins have come over 2m but the step up to 2m4f will suit, as his best hurdling form came when narrowly beaten over 2m4f in the EBF Final at Sandown last season. And the return to decent ground is probably a plus, having plied his trade in deep ground in chases to date.

His hurdling form came on a decent surface (good to soft) but he clearly handles soft very well if required (rain is forecast but they are apparently still considering watering).

I have had a small bet on him at [8.6] but nothing to talk about (well, I appreciate I just have).

To be honest with you, I only started looking at this race for the first time at silly o’clock on Wednesday morning , and my initial shortlist consisted solely of horses trading in single figures. The likes of Slade Steel, Stencil, Jordans Cross and Sixmilebridge.

I can see a considerable case for them all.

That immediately told me I should walk away from the race, and I have, apart from that modest exchange win-only bet on Meetmebythesea.

And maybe that is a bit iffy too as, while he wasn’t in the Game Spirit to win against much higher-rated horses, they’d have probably been hoping for a better show there, even in heavy ground.

But he has a fair bit going for him, all the same. Here is hoping.

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.40am): Sixmilebridge and Jordans Cross are the two for money at the top of the market at 9/2 and 11/2 respectively.

Sixmilebridge is a NR as at 9.17am (going).

2.40pm – 19/20 Wodhooh the first leg of the obvious double?

I must have undergone a brain implant while sleeping at the weekend as my lifelong objection to backing favourites has disappeared at this Festival, as I am seriously considering having a double on Wodhooh and Fact To File on Thursday.

I won’t be able to leave the house for a month if it doesn’t cop.

This isn’t an advert, but the fact is that Wodhooh is top price at [5/6] with AKbets (and others), and Fact To File is [4/5] with the same firm.

In fact, as at 9am, Wodhooh is 19/20 with AKBets.

I really struggle to see either being beaten.

Gordon Elliott is having a Festival to forget after the first two days, and if he still hasn’t had a winner and Wodhooh gets beaten here then I’d give him a wide berth.

Jade De Grugy is an obvious threat and I have a lot of time for Feet Of A Dancer, but surely Wodhooh towers over these from every punting metric.

A winner of last season’s Martin Pipe (Elliott left it to the last race last season to get on the board here), she has maintained that level of form since, finishing second to Lossiemouth at Aintree and then winning at Ascot and Leopardstown this season, on the latter occasion beating the subsequent Doncaster winner Feet Of A Dancer by 2 ¼ lengths, giving her 8lb.

I wouldn’t lay her at [4/6] here myself but she may even well drift further from [5/6] with the stable form a consideration (she was trading at 1.97 at 6pm).

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.40am): This market revolves around the striking weakness of Wodhooh. Maybe it is stable form, I don’t know, but how is this horse trading at 1.96? And 19/20 fixed odds, which is set to lengthen if anything. Maybe.

Maybe the 40-45mph winds should advise caution for shortie-backers…

3.20pm – Cleeve form to the fore hopefully

Gwennie May Boy is a NR as at 7.39am (lame).

On Monday’s podcast, I was asked what my nap of the week was and I replied, subject to prices, dutching the Cleeve Hurdle 1-2 of Ma Shantou and Impose Toi in the Stayers’ Hurdle.

Now, I appreciate you can make a strong enough case for Teahupoo, Bob Olinger and the shortening Kabral du Mathan et al but I’ll stand by Monday’s assertion that the pair are very much my two against the field here, though it has to be said that Ma Shauntou was 8s a few days ago and is now [13/2] best, and that is coming under pressure.

Put one mystifyingly poor run aside at Haydock in November (and ignoring a one-off nearly paid dividends for Sober Glory’s backers on Tuesday) , and the 7yo Ma Shantou is one seriously progressive horse this season , winning off a mark of 129 here in October, and he was visually stunning when beating Impose Toi by 7 lengths in the Cleeve Hurdle last time.

I’m inclined to believe what I saw here, although I do think Impose Toi will get a lot closer to him here on the expected better ground (remember that rain is due, and they may water beforehand) and on 6lb better terms.

Impose Toi, second in the Coral Cup here last season, has also stepped up his game considerably in this campaign and he looks well worth a win-only bet at [12/1] as well. Rain and watering is a worry for him, though.

I’ve also seen worse each-way bets than Doddiethegreat at 66s, too.

I have had a nibble there too (£30ew in fact), as last year’s Pertemps winner has looked a bit of a hound this season (especially at Wetherby first time up) and first-time blinkers could rejuvenate him.

I’ve had a decent swing at this race, then.

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.50am): Teahupoo has regained favouritism from Kabral Du Mathan at 7/2 – the latter has drifted back out to 5s , having been as short as 11/4 yesterday – but Ballyburn (11s into 13/2) and Impose Toi (12s to 8s) have attracted support.

4pm – Wrong race but right result for 6/5 Fact To File

We are down to eight in here now as Croke Park is a NR as at 8.20am (bruised foot).

Hopefully, as with the mares’ hurdle, this Shirley looks straightforward for the jolly.

It was clearly a massive disappointment that Fact To File wasn’t supplemented for the Gold Cup, and I really struggle to see why he wasn’t.

Everything about his win in the Irish Gold Cup last time, winning easily, ears pricked at the line, suggests he was 100pc entitled to take his chance in the big one, over the longer trip.

And it is not as if JP McManus didn’t have a ready-made replacement for this race in Jonbon. And how many other chances will the horse have to run in the Gold Cup? Horses are fragile creatures, as we see all too often.

And it is also not as if JP is chasing his first win at the Festival.

I genuinely don’t get it.

Sport is about pushing the boundaries, not nicking an easy single

Sport is surely about pushing the boundaries, not nicking an easy single.

But the owner pays the bills and hopefully this will turn out to be the latter scenario now (ie an easy win), as, on the form of his win last time, or his nine-length defeat of Heart Wood in this contest last year, he is surely a 2s-on poke?

Nothing more to add really. The 4/5 looks big to me.

And I cannot believe he is trading at [2.06] as at 8.30am; I’m obviously missing something.

In fact, he is now trading at [2.2 and [6/5].

WTAF.

There seems to be a suggestion the ground is behind the weakness, and Timeform did call it good when he disappointed at Kempton and Punchestown. But they also had it as good to soft when he won here last year.

It promises to be softer on Friday. Just saying…

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.55am): I am non-plussed  by this drift on Fact To File , who is now out to 2.2 and 6/5 in a place now.  There are rumours that he may not run because of the ground (but obviously we are into money-back territory if he is pulled out) but I can’t see having him as a 6/5 poke. Everything else is strongish as a result of his weakness.

4.40pm – 12/1 Bold Endeavour the each-way bet against the plot

Tongue in cheek, I posted the following on X on Wednesday morning.

“Had a thought while watching racing yesterday. Wouldn’t it be a great PR exercise for punters if BHA-Irish stewards/integrity team convened on Monday & pulled in all the trainers whose horses had shown abnormal improvement in the handicaps, win or lose. Need a big room, obviously.”

I then added: “I actually think a lot more retrospective public scrutiny by the BHA/stewards would serve the sport and punters well.”

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea.

It’ll never happen, obviously.

Make sure you don’t lose if/when the favourite wins

Of course, it is merely a coincidence that I tweeted that and Supremely West and Jeriko Du Reponet are short-priced favourites at 7/2 and 10/3 respectively in the last two races…

As much as he has crashed in price in recent weeks, Supremely West has winning plot stamped all over his hind quarters, and I would suggest you at least have a small bet on him so you don’t lose if/when he wins.

Simply put, he was a massive eyecatcher when third to Ma Shantou and Electric Mason off a 2lb higher mark than this here in October, and he will take the world of beating if reproducing that run, his first for the stable.

The winner is rated 25lb higher now and the runner-up (also in here) has gone up 11lb after a subsequent success.

Of course, he hasn’t been sighted in three starts since (beaten an aggregate of 66 lengths, with the stewards asking questions of his run here in November when he raced on the unfavoured inside line when a 5/4 chance) but that is no barrier to success on the biggest stage.

He is hardly unloading material at 7/2 and he may well drift, but I strongly suspect this could be another ante-post punt landed for the Skeltons.

Make sure you don’t lose when he wins….

Bold bid expected

Bold Endeavour has also been nibbled ante-post from 25s downwards in the past fortnight or so, but he remains worth a bet at 12s each way, with extra places available (12s is available, with five places on offer).

Nicky Henderson is having a great week (three winners so far) and this one shaped well for the master trainer at Huntingdon in January, having rejoined him after a brief spell with Laura Morgan, for whom he showed nothing in three starts.

He can race off the same mark of 130 here, which is some 15lb lower than his peak, and this horse has no end of strong Cheltenham form to his name.

In fact, he is 13lb lower than when a 3 ¾ length fourth in this race in 2024 and I’ll be surprised if he is out of the first five.

Surprised, and poorer.

He is handicapped to give Supremely West a race.

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (9am): Supremely West (now available at 4s) and Bold Endeavour (15/2 from 12s) are very solid at the top of the market. I couldn’t see anything else of note moving.

5.20pm –  10/1 Herakles Westwood may be the one to foil this plot

Uncle Bert is a NR as at 6.36am (going).

Following on from the Pertemps, Jeriko Du Reponet could easily land successive plots in the Kim Muir, with the peerless Derek O’Connor booked, but I am not totally sold on this particular project.

I just don’t think he jumps well enough, for all he could maybe hit a few and still prevail under the premier amateur.

Because the handicapper has been very kind to him.

Runner-up in the Pertemps here last season, then going on to win handsomely at Punchestown off a mark of 139, it is fair say he has had three educational runs over fences this season.

And he certainly shaped well enough in a Grade 2 behind Salver at Windsor last time.

The handicapper actually dropped him 3lb to a mark of 145 after that Windsor run, which allowed him to race off the ceiling mark here.

The stars could well have aligned for him then, but I can’t get involved at the price, even as a saver.

It’s a very tricky race but I do think Herakles Westwood is fairly priced at 10s each way, and a general 9s if you want a minimal betting interest in a tough heat to solve.

Warren Greatrex won this race in 2018 and he is having a great season, and it could get even better here.

Herakles Westwood only went up 2lb for beating Katate Dori here on New Year’s Day, and hopefully the wind op he has had since is another positive.

Decent ground is fine for him but he acts on soft if they get more rain/watering than expected, and he has run well on all his starts at this track.

He runs off a marginally career-high mark here but he could be up to the job. But I have had just a score on him, nothing more.

Possibly, with the exception of Jeriko Du Reponet, granted….

Time to ditch the Monk act

After a very quiet opening two days, I am swinging the bat a touch more on Thursday, it has to be said.

I know I said bet responsibly earlier in the week but I have been betting (and looking like) a monk this week so far, so cut me some slack, Jack.

Good luck on Thursday.

Especially if you back what I have…

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (9.04am): Waterford Whispers is now vying for favouritism with Jeriko Du Reponet at .7/2 and 4/1 – they are in the same ownership – and Kim Roque is strong at 6s, too. It is odds-on one of those three wins, according to the market.

 

BEST BETS (please read copy for betting assessments for all races)

Double on Woodhoo in 2.40pm and Fact To File in 4pm (get the best combo you can with your bookmaker – you’ll get a lot bigger than I was expecting on Thursday, with AK Bets 19/10 Wodhooh and 21/20 with AKBets as at 9am – you may even get bigger shortly)

Ma Shantou at 13/2 and Impose Toi at 12/1, both win-only, in 3.20pm

Doddiethegreat at 66s each way in 3.20pm (get best place terms you can access at the price)

Bold Endeavour at 12/1 each way in 4.40pm (get best place terms you can access at the price) – be sure to have a win-only cover save on Supremely West at 4s+

GROUND AND WEATHER DETAILS (Wind speeds building throughout the day – gusts 40-45mph).

(weather forecast March 12th-13th – updated 9.15am Thursday)

GOING: Good good to soft in places

GOING STICK : 6.1, Thursday 9.30am (was 5.7 yesterday)

Rails: Chase rail +6y

• 2:00pm: Race distance is now +56y to 2m 4f 183y

• 4:00pm: Race distance is now +56y to 2m 4f 183y

• 5:20pm: Race distance is now +74y to 3m 2f 144y

Thursday morning course update: 228mm since January 1st. Dry Wednesday and overnight. Mainly dry forecast this morning with drizzle before rain this afternoon (2-3mm). Wind speeds building throughout the day (gusts 40-45mph).

WEATHER (yr.no latest, 9.15am Thursday):   12mm Thursday (due to start 11am now, but a lot of the 12mm after racing), Friday 3.9mm (half before racing; half after)

Wind speeds building throughout the day (gusts 40-45mph).

WATERING: 3-5mm selective watering on Wednesday night

 

BALLOTED OUT (get your money back)

1.20pm: Belle Montrose

2pm: Koukeo

4.40pm: Lihyan, Turndlightsdownlow, Ambion View, Ontheropes, El Capitaine, Found A Diamond

5.20pm: J’Arrive de L’Est, Hunter Legend, Chavez, Kelce, Binge Worthy, Rexem

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

David Pipe cheekpieces; Kingston Queen, 1.20pm; 4-63

Eoin Griffin cheekpieces; Ol Man Dingle; 2pm; 1-16

John McConnell cheekpieces; Intense Approach, 2pm & Olympic Man, 5.20pm; 3-67

Jessie Harrington blinkers; Jetara, 2,40pm; 15-160

Willie Mullins hood; Ballyburn, 3.20pm; 38-204

Nicky Henderson blinkers; Doddiethegreat, 3.20pm; 4-62

Emmet Mullins blinkers; Melbourne Shamrock, 4.40pm; 0-5

Jonjo and AJ O’Neill blinkers; Monbeg Genius, 5,20pm; 2-10

Paul Nolan cheekpieces; Sandor Clegane; 5.20pm; 4-33

Eric McNamara cheekpieces; Weveallbeencaught, 5.20pm; 0-18

John McConnell blinkers; No Time To Wait, 5.20pm; 1-47

Venetia Williams cheekpieces; Hunter Legend, 5.20pm; 6-45

 

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.20pm: Amen Kate, Bambino Fever, Blue Velvet, Carrigmoorna Spruce?, Chosen Comrade?, Echoing Silence, Full Of Life, Future Prospect, Kingston Queen, Place De La Nation, St Irene, White Noise, Manganese

2pm: Regent’s Stroll, Ol Man Dingle?, King Alexander?, Wingmen, Moon Rocket, Intense Approach, Western Knight, Ben Solo

2.40pm: Dream On Baby, Jade De Grugy, Jetara?, Sunset Marquesa?

3.20pm: Hewick? (no guaranteed pace in here)

4pm: Heart Wood?, Jonbon?, JPR One (prom), Master Chewy?

4.40pm: Staffordshire Knot, Gowel Road, Kikijo, Red Dirt Road, Melbourne Shamrock, Idy Wood, Onewaywest,

5.20pm: Monbeg Genius, The Enabler, Sandor Clegane?, Il Ridoto, Glengouly, Gericault Roque?, Ask Brewster, Lord Accord

 

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good:  Willie Mullins (four-timer on Thursday – and has won the Arkle, Champion Hurdle, Turners, Browns and Champion Chase), Hobbs and White (winner on Monday), Joseph O’Brien, Nicky Henderson (treble on Saturday and won the Supreme, NH Chase and MGM Cup), Ben Pauling (5-4 winner on Monday – and takes the Jack Richards on Thursday), Warren Greatrex, Rebecca Curtis, Russell and Scudamore (bang among the winners of late, four-timer on Saturday, including a 33-1 winner – and at it again on Sunday), Dan Skelton (won the Plate on Tuesday), Declan Queally, George and Zetterholm, James Owen, Bailey and Nicholls (40-1 winner of the mares’ novices hurdle), Christian Williams (small sample – two from five)

Fair: Gordon Elliott (12-1 winner on Saturday, but a having a moderate Festival so far – seconds in Champion Hurdle and Cross Country),  Paul Nolan, Gary and Josh Moore (double at Sandown on Saturday), Henry De Bromhead (15-2 winner on Wednesday  but moderate in truth), Paul Nicholls (winner on Saturday), Gavin Cromwell (maybe turning corner after yet another quiet spell – 4-1 winner on Wednesday and the 12-1 winner of the Leinster National on Sunday and the Cross Country on Wednesday), Faye Bramley, Venetia Williams (winner on Friday, and landed the Grand Annual), Olly Murphy (winner on Saturday), Nigel and Willy Twiston Davies (winner on Monday), Jonjo and AJ O’Neill (won the Ultima),  Anthony Honeyball (double on Monday, including an 11s poke), Emma Lavelle, Jeremy Scott,, Jamie Snowden,  David Pipe, Nick Scholfield (fair/good), Max Comley (fair/good), Neil Mulholland, Kayley Woollacott (one win from five), Noel C Kelly, Eoin Griffin, Evan Williams (fair/moderate), Emmet Mullins, Fergal O’Brien (double at Huntingdon on Wednesday)

Moderate: Sam Thomas, John McConnell, Chris Gordon (had third in the bumper), Harry Derham (won a three-runner race at weekend), Joe Tizzard, Jessie Harrington (very small sample), Shark Hanlon, Rebecca Menzies

Don’t know (small samples):  Martin Keighley, Thomas Cooper, Samuel Drinkwater, Peter Fahey (one runner, one winner), Tony Mullins, Eric McNamara, Ruth Jefferson