By Tony Calvin - 23 December 2025
A competitive enough 0-130 novices’ handicap chase for the money – six figures are thrown at the Grade 1s, but it is the undercard, with races worth 25k, 24k and 22k that have the numbers – but possibly one set to be dominated by Noble Park.
The 4s in places about him were quickly taken about him on Sunday morning, with the available [11/4] following suit on Monday.
The one-way traffic has continued since the final field was known, and the [5/2]. [9/4] and 2s has become [7/4] best, including with AKBets.
It is not hard to see why he has shortened as he has grown a leg since going over fences, winning easily off a mark of 108 at Hereford and then laughing at the opposition at Lingfield last time.
The handicapper hit him with an 11lb rise for that 24-length Lingfield win but he could have been far harsher, especially as the runner-up, Vanderpoel, came out and danced in by 7 lengths at Ascot last week (being put up 8lb himself in the process).
The handicapper may well have re-assessed Noble Park following Vanderpoel’s win, but perhaps it was too late to with this race in mind.
The time of the Lingfield race also pretty much backed up the visuals, and the strong suspicion is that Noble Park could take some whacking here, not that a price of [7/4] interests me at all.
It interested someone though, as he was just [6/4] at 5.30pm on Christmas Eve.
There are some credible, progressive challengers ranged against him, but maybe they don’t have his handicap upside.
Secret Des Dieux is actually 1lb well-in after his third to Mambonumberfive and subsequent winner The Mighty Bandit over 2m at Newbury (that was just his second chase start, like Noble Park) and you have to think the step up to 2m4f will suit him here, having won over 2m3f+ over hurdles earlier in his career.
He could be the one that gives the favourite most to do and is perhaps the most attractive each-way bet here at 10s, the 12s and 11s having been taken.
In fact, he is. That 10s is available in three places as this goes live, and I’ll maybe look to side with him in without favourite markets when they go up, but no bet as it stands – and on all the ITV cards, too.
If you want four places here, the firms offering that concession are taking the piss again with current [13/2] and [6/1] quotes about Secret Des Dieux, so don’t oblige them.
BOXING DAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Noble Park has eased to 7/4, but nothing much going on here really. Nibbles for Epic West into 8s but Jasmine Bliss is currently weak at 18s, and likely to get bigger rather than shorter by the looks of it.
This could now be a cheap and easy Grade 1 for Mydaddypaddy to capture after we lost Act Of Innocence, Skylight Hustle and Spectacularsunrise at the overnight stage (the first two were best at [7/2] and [6/1] in the ante-post market), but I am not at all sold on the Dan Skelton horse yet.
At least one horse was added in very late to this race just before 10am on Tuesday (I think it was the [150/1] outsider Wahraan, but I am not 100pc sure) to give us eight runners and a 1,2,3 each-way shape – for now, at least.
I’m not even getting into Mydaddypaddy’s Supreme price here (the Cheltenham Festival talk has already bored the arse off me, and we are still about 11 weeks out), so let’s just concentrate on what he has done on the track, and that is a wide-margin bumper win and two successes at odds-on over hurdles at Carlisle and Haydock.
The Carlisle runner-up was only seventh to Act Of Innocence at Newbury, so we are looking at his Haydock win at 5s-on in a three-runner race as a more accurate barometer of his ability.
The time was good and he is a clearly a fair tool, but I am a firm non-believer (and certainly a non-backer) in him at prices ranging from [8/15] to [2/5] – AKBets are top at [8/15] – even with those three no-shows above to lessen his load.
The handicapper is not overly impressed either, and he is currently rated just 3lb superior to Grade 2 winner Diamond Hunter and Idaho Sun.
Good bumper horse Idaho Sun has won even more uncompetitive hurdle races than the favourite, delivering at [4/9] and [1/14], but he has been impressing the Time Bandits on the clock. He is a big danger, as the price suggests.
Ben Pauling clearly loves Starmount (yet to be given an official mark) and they certainly knew what they had before his Wetherby win, as the winning pointer was backed into [10/11] and made all for an easy win in a fair time.
This is what Pauling said about him recently: “He was very good at Wetherby the other day when he hadn’t had the perfect preparation. He got jarred up in a racecourse gallop at Worcester so I had to sit on him for a month.
“He wasn’t fit for his last race so he did it pretty nicely. He’s a bold, strong horse and I’m expecting a good show. Kielan Woods will ride and he’s the one I’m most excited about other than The Jukebox Man.”
I wouldn’t be having a bet – the dead-eight and the prospect of a NR would put me off an each-way interest so far out (we have ended up with six)– but Mydaddypaddy would definitely not be for me at his current price.
This may be a weak Grade 1 but he still has to go and do it against decent opposition with potential and upside. As for that Cheltenham price…
BOXING DAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Pretty static market, with the favourite easing a touch to 8/15. Starmount is currently weak at 12s, and four points bigger in a ridiculously weak Betfair market (only £17 available to back Starmount in the three visible back boxes)
I was looking forward to seeing Jimmy Du Seuil here after his impressive chase debut at Fairyhouse last month, but Willie Mullins has left the 2s ante-post favourite at home and relies on Kitzbuhel, who himself wasn’t too shoddy on his fencing bow at Punchestown on his return.
I know he often comes alive when he rolls his big guns out at this time of the year (but not always), but the form of the Mullins yard would worry me.
I have never seen it so poor, but let’s see.
He is two from seven in the UK this month but his Irish stats are just 5 from 45 in the same period, with enough short-priced favourites getting beaten in the last fortnight to fill a Rugby League team, if not quite enough for a Gaelic Football and Hurling side (google told me it was 15-a-side in those madmen games).
This is obviously a tricky race to call, with all six contenders having their chance, and with four of the sextet usual forward-goers.
The betting has effectively narrowed it down to three, Kitzbuhel – marginal current favourite at a general [15/8], the 2s being taken early on Wednesday- Wendigo and Salver, and I’d marginally favour the latter at [11/4], though he is currently over a point bigger win-only on the exchange
Its is 10s bar that trio.
Salver was winning the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at Chepstow by a street at this time in 2023 and he was seriously impressive when winning a Sandown Grade 2 from off the pace last time.
This is another level up, granted, but you had to be taken by that performance.
Then again Kitzbuhel is a classy tool and strong stayer Wendigo did wonders to fight back and win over 2m4f at Newbury last time.
A good race to watch then, not bet in, which is the hallmark of this Kempton card, which lacks a fair bit of oomph and wow outside of the King George.
BOXING DAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Kitbuhel is strong into [13/8] and his main market rivals are weak. Nibbles for now-18s chances Thomas Mor and Crest Of Fortune.
I know runners for the Rowland Meyrick have hardly been in plentiful supply in recent years – seven last year, and six in 2023, and general eight-to-10 strong fields in the last decade – but five is a new low from what I can see.
Make that four.
Long gone are the days when horses of the calibre of Forgive n ’Forget and The Thinker rocked up, but at least it is a quality field in its own right and we appear to have a real up-and-comer in here in the shape of the 7yo Konfusion.
From the increasingly impressive Parkinson and Smith outfit, he absolutely routed a Rehearsal field at Newcastle last time, and a 10lb rise may not stop him following up here.
He has similar betting vibes to Noble Park in the Kempton opener in that you can easily see him defying that large rise, but he is perhaps a short enough price now against a classier set of horses who all have their chance and have done more on the clock than the favourite to date.
I’ll cut it short then. Konfusion is much the likeliest winner given his progressive profile, but I can let him oblige unbacked myself at [6/5].
Spare a thought for those who backed him into [9/4] favouritism at Haydock two starts ago, only to see him unseat.
He is best at [6/5] and a general evens here against a classier field off an 11lb higher mark.
Oof.
BOXING DAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Konfusion is now [10/11] after Our Power has come out, making it a win-only contest.
The field sizes in the ITV races are pretty pitiful, it has to be said. A pretty static market here, though Butch has been popular enough into 11/2.
It’s disappointing that Anzadam didn’t take up his entry in this race, as everyone wants to know if he really is the hound he looked in the Fighting Fifth.
Donald Trump was more willing to go to Vietnam than he looked minded to go past at Newcastle.
With Sir Gino in the same ownership, it was perhaps predictable he would stay at home, so this probably looks a straight fight between the unbeaten Nicky Henderson horse and Golden Ace, with a nod to the progression of Celtic Dino and the course record (five wins) of Rubaud.
I expect we will get the usual cry that Golden Ace is being underestimated in the betting once again (she is 4s in one spot) but we all saw how the Champion Hurdle played out and a 1 ½-length defeat of a barking Anzadam at Newcastle, with the 151-rated Nemean Lion a neck away in third, really was the performance of a mare worthy of a rating of just 152.
It was a very poor Grade 1 – but maybe this could be, too.
You suspect Sir Gino is a grade above her when it comes to raw talent but, then again, backing horses at [4/7] – he is [2/5] in places – against race-fit rivals after 364 days off the track wouldn’t be my idea of a tempting betting strategy.
Of course, the most likely scenario is Sir Gino winning on the Eric Idle/Billy Idol (I’ll ask Dan Barber which one of those to use) but he makes no appeal at the odds, for all he could be smashed up in the betting and go off 3s-on.
Who knows these days?
Sir Gino was best at [4/6] with AKBets as at 8.20am on Christmas Day.
Maybe, Celtic Dino is the one for the forecast/without market – they have still yet to appear – as he did very well against Wodhooh over 2m3f+ at Ascot last time, being outstayed by a very good mare, but I think the market has already cottoned on to that angle early on Tuesday, with prices ranging from 6s to [7/1].
BOXING DAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Sir Gino is into 8/13 – AKBets are top price – in a pretty dead market. Not even 70k matched in the Betfair market (so 35k backed).
What a race this promises to be.
And the pace angles suggest it could be a punishing affair from flag-fall to curtain-drop.
There are eight runners too at the moment for each-way players, though I am not sure why [125/1] poke Master Chewy is in the field (famous last words in a season of 300/1 and 250/1 pokes going in).
That said, he is rated the same (156) as [13/2] poke The Jukebox Man, who I imagine plenty will be trying to place-lay if the price is right when that market goes up. You could have to go to 2s+ to get him in the can for that market though (when it goes up – it’s a very illiquid market but I am surprised he is around 11/8 there as of 9.56am on Boxing Day), as that will surely be a popular angle.
The obvious starting point are the Mullins’ form horses Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File, separated by a neck in the John Durkan, 29 lengths clear of the rest.
Rated 174 and 173 respectively by the UK handicapper, they clearly set the standard here – Fact To File was so good in the Ryanair, as was Gaelic Warrior at Aintree – but I bet that Mullins was privately fuming they both had such a tough race last month.
It certainly wasn’t a case of easing them into the campaign gently, as I am sure Big Willie would have preferred.
I’d marginally favour Gaelic Warrior on stamina grounds alone (though the drying ground is certainly not ideal for him) but I could easily see Jango Baie coming up to their level after a real “wow” performance at Ascot on his return, recording a sky-high time performance in the process and strongly hinting that 3m will suit.
The problem is can you justify him being the same price as the Mullins’ pair at [11/4]? Indeed, he is now clear favourite with some firms, including with AKBets.
No is the short answer, even though, hand on heart, he’d be the horse that I think will win.
Well, the horse that I think may win.
Thinking, and betting, are two different things, though he is edging out to 4s win-only on the exchange as I write (the market has been very changeable).
I’d also suggest this isn’t a good each-way betting race either, with only Master Chewy the one I couldn’t have figuring.
Which brings me back to The Jukebox Man.
In a normal year, he’d be a prime contender as an unbeaten chaser (he also won his sole point) who won the Kauto Star here last year and returned to beat Iroko (perhaps an Iroko with the handbrake not fully off) in a Graduation Chase at Haydock.
However, I can’t be having him at 6s and [13/2] in this company.
And I hope I am not wrong either as, while I know I am being a grumpy bastard again as he is harmless enough, I can’t really have the persistent, regurgitated, tired chat from/about his owner myself, to be honest (I bet some football journos and bookmakers who have employed him down the years could tell a tale or two..).
Merry Christmas Harry, by the way…
Personally, I couldn’t have Djelo either, but at least he is more than twice the price and very good on his day. He will need a career-best by 10lb+ if the others run to form and I struggle to see it, even if he is only seven and a 16s poke.
And then we have last year’s 1-2 of Banbridge and Il Est Francais.
Banbridge is tried in a first-time visor here (an option his trainer uses very sparely – see headgear stats below) and he will be feeling the foam of Sean Bowen’s cosh for the first time, too (that will upset the Pro Cush brigade – I always remember the BHA’s head of handicapping Dominic Gardiner-Hill raving about Graham “Cosher” McCourt in the Racing Post offices in the late 80s, while wielding his ruler in determined fashion) , but he has been beaten 109 lengths in three starts since beating Il Est Francais by 1 ¾ lengths in this race last season.
I appreciate the reappearance run came over 2m1f but it will be some training performance to see him win here, even if the drying ground is very much in his favour.
I imagine Il Est Francais’ presence here could scare the living lights out of the other trainers and jockeys (okay, that is pushing it a bit).
You have to forgive him a dire return behind Jango Baie at Ascot but he was surely massively undercooked that day – he didn’t even manage to see off Gidleigh Park for the lead – and he is a Jekyll and Hyde character anyway.
Surely, Harry Cobden will look to blast him out in front here, in a race in which the Timeform site reports he hit [1.33] in running last year. I thought it was much shorter myself, but my memory is shot.
The point I am making here is that if he does go off lickety-split, even in the face of plenty of pace competition – as he did when routing the Kauto Star field from the front in 2023 and nearly repeating the same mission last year, even if he actually didn’t set fast fractions in that race – then he will present all the jockeys behind with a problem of when to seriously to push the chase button.
It’s genuinely a race to savour, but not taste from a betting point of view.
Who knows, maybe I am turning into one of those purists who believe the sport can survive without betting.
I may be on the way out, but I am not that far gone just yet.
BOXING DAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Gaelic Warrior is currently into 5/2 , with Fact To File and Jango Baie 7/2. Precious little going on here too.
GOING: Good, good to soft in places
Going Ratio: 80:20
Going Stick – Chase: 7.2; Hurdle: 7.0 (Friday 9am)
Rails: The Chase Course is on its innermost configuration. The Winter Hurdle Course is 4 yards out from its innermost configuration, with the effect on distances added to race distance details.
Boxing Day course update: Partly Cloudy. We had a low of +2C overnight. We had 17mm of rain on Thursday, December 18th. We had 4mm of rain overnight on Sunday December 21st. Forecast: Turning cooler, breezy and dry. Today looks cloudy with some sunny spells but cold.
Weather (yr.no latest): Dry
GOING – Chase: Good to soft, soft in place; Hurdles: Good to soft
GOING STICK – Hurdle: 4.2; Chase: 4.0 (Friday 8am) (going stick readings have gone in opposite direction to ground)
Boxing Day morning course update: 2mm rain on Sunday, 0.8mm Monday, dry since. Forecast: Chilly start followed by a dry day with sunny periods on raceday.
Rails: Hurdle Course: Home bend out 5yds, Seeds Lane out 8yds, Anchor Bridge bend out 9yds & Western Bend out 14yds. Chase Course: Home bend, Anchor Bridge bend and Western bend out 7yds, Seeds Lane Bend out 8yds.
Weather (yr.no latest): Dry and sunny (low sun alert…)
GOING: Soft, good to soft in places
GOING STICK: 4.4 Hurdle; 4.6 Chase (Friday 8.20am)
Boxing Day course update: Dry, but misty on Saturday morning. Dry, calm and overcast on Sunday. 5mm rain overnight into Monday, then dry & overcast all day. Dry and overcast on Tuesday. Dry & overcast on Christmas Eve. Dry & light breeze on Christmas Day. Dry and +1C overnight into Boxing Day. The forecast for Boxing Day is a dry and bright day, +6C.
Rails: The shared ‘A1’ bend is located 18yds out from the ‘official’ line. The ‘away’ chase bend is located 12 yds out from the ‘official’ line and the away hurdle bend is located 13yds out from the ‘official’ line, race distances alterations as per the race summaries.
Weather (yr.no latest): Largely dry and sunny
Fergal O’Brien cheekpieces; Tripoli Flyer, 1.55pm Kempton; 11-73 since 2016
Joseph O’Brien visor; Banbridge, 2.30pm Kempton; 0-4 since 2017
Paul Nicholls, blinkers; Emailandy, 3.40pm Kempton; 12-81 since 2009
Ben Pauling, cheekpieces; King Of The Road, 3.40pm Kempton; 10-84 since 2016
12.45pm Kempton: Jasmine Bliss, Krak?, Noble Park, Secret Des Dieux, Tapley, U Can’t Be Serious
1.05pm Aintree: Diamond Hunter, Idaho Sun, Starmount, Storming George
1.20pm Kempton: Blueking d’Oroux, Kitzbuhel, Thomas Mor, Wendigo?
1.35pm Wetherby: Butch, Konfusion
1.55pm Kempton: Give It To Me Oj, Rubaud, Tripoli Flyer
2.30pm Kempton: Djelo?, Gaelic Warrior, Il Est Francais, The Jukebox Man
Good: Ben Pauling (another 5-1 winner on Sunday), Harry Derham, Nicky Henderson, James Owen (another 5-2 winner on Sunday), Sam Thomas, Jeremy Scott, Tom George (two runners, two winners at 12-1 and 13-2), Neil King (another winner on Sunday), Parkinson and Smith, Jamie Snowden, Anthony Honeyball
Fair: Olly Murphy, Nigel and Willie Twiston-Davies (borderline good), Gary and Josh Moore (borderline good), Paul Nicholls (borderline good), Joe Tizzard (borderline moderate; strike-rate very poor), Fergal O’Brien, Joseph O’Brien (moderate enough), Venetia Williams, Killahena and McPherson, Dan Skelton (borderline good after another winner on Monday, Chris Gordon
Moderate: Mickey Bowen, Willie Mullins, Harry Fry (small sample and four out of eight runners placed, so probably harsh), Hobbs and White
Don’t really know: Suzy Smith, Andrew Martin, Patrick Neville, Jessica Bedi (four runners; one 11-2 winner)
1.15pm Ascot – 11/2 Catchintsavo set to lead again All change here. Sixteen became six…
TUESDAY race-by-race copy for Saturday 1.15pm Ascot – First three in the betting are due…
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