By Tony Calvin - 31 July 2025
The main site I use has 14mm arriving from 10am, and even the course themselves have issued the following update (tracks tend to focus on the positive so as not to deter racegoers attending, so fair play to Goodwood).
They say: “showery rain, potentially heavy, from mid morning today (6-25mm).”
And there is a yellow Thunderstorm warning for Goodwood racecourse on the Met Office site.
The ground has quickened up to good, good to firm in places, at the moment.
They’ll be NRs galore if anything like that 25mm arrives – and remember they were watering on Monday, too – and maybe even my selection below, among them.
He has shortened into 11s best but I think he must drift back out now (currently 17.0 in a very lightly-traded Betfair market).
The prospect of good to soft/soft ground is an unknown I could do without.
In general, tread very carefully with your betting – it may be best to wait and see what lands before the first and be best if you bet on a race-by-race basis.
And NRs could well change the shape for each-way betting.
I’m doing a summary of all the other races now, but I doubt I’ll be betting myself until I see what the weather does – and the copy around 8am will reflect that.
Just when you think betting opportunities are thin on the ground up pops a 5f sprint handicap on Thursday!
The only blessing is this 16-runner contest is 10 shy of its maximum.
Very unlike me though, I really do like one in this speed test, for all the forecast rain is a concern (see below).
Namely, Wheels Of Fire at 18s in a place and 16s in nine spots.
I think he could go off in single figures on the day (if no rain….), but that’s just a wild guess with the markets being what they are these days.
He got taken out of the 5f handicap here on Tuesday because of “travel problems”, but the cynic in me (it is actually my whole being) thinks connections may have seen this 50k race had come up 10 light beforehand and decided this was the better option.
They’d have been right, as well.
His best two efforts have come over course and distance, he has come down the weights for running very well in defeat, and a draw in 12 looks very nice to my eye.
He would have gone very close to winning at Catterick last time but for twice meeting trouble in running up the straight, and he actually got dropped another 1lb for it.
Generous.
That was his first for the Hays since he was bought for 70,00gns previously on July 10 (from Al Shaqab), and they were unlucky not to collect at the first time of asking.
A mark of 78 (he went handicapping off 84) is his lowest yet and it underestimates his ability.
His 2yo maiden and novice form is very good in the context of a 78 rating, and that Catterick run last time, albeit in a 0-80, was very encouraging.
I admit the rain does worry me, as he has never raced on anything softer than good (officially, or according to Timeform).
That could dictate his price, I’ll admit.
The weather forecast is below (maybe up to 14mm from 10am onwards).
His sire and dam handled soft ground well though, if that is required, but it’s an unknown.
The rest of the Goodwood card will follow in the morning, but all the usual stats and info for Thursday in here.
There was no surprise to see Best Secret initially head the market at [7/2] in this, as he really should have won the Golden Gates at Royal Ascot.
That said, he was handicapped as if he had, going up 5lb for a length defeat, and he has the small matter of 17 rivals to contend with here.
If they hold him up again from stall two (which they presumably will as they seem set on his run-style), it isn’t hard to envisage more traffic problems, so the early [7/2] is no bargain in my book.
He has since shortened to [9/4] tops.
Of course I can see him winning, but that’s a no from me, for all he has form with dig if required.
Marhaba Ghaiyyath was another horse summarily chinned by the handicapper for losing last time, getting stuck up 6lb for a ¾-length defeat at Newmarket.
I’d probably agree with that as the winner, King’s Charter, looks a fair tool and the third, seeing a hat-trick, was 2 ¾ lengths away.
It looks very strong form and I expect William Buick, who rode King’s Charter and who may have asked the ride here as a result, to get on the front end from stall seven, and out of trouble.
He ranks a decent each-way bet if no rain.
He is available at 7s with three firms, with five places available with two of those (6s, six places is out there). There is [15/2] in a place.
The Johnstons won this race in 2018 (and 2021, too) with Communique, who actually won that Newmarket contest beforehand.
The problem with him is that he has no form on anything softer than good, so I am going to wait here.
A common theme of this update.
Charlie Appleby’s record with first-time cheekpieces (see below) demands attention when it comes to Maximised’s chances here, so he may put his July Cup flop behind him.
In truth, it is easy to make a case for all nine in this 2yo 6f Group 2 Richmond Stakes.
I haven’t got a betting opinion, other than the fact that the only maiden in the race, Puerto Rico, looks a fair each way price at [15/2] after showing a lot more against stablemate True Love last time, albeit at a very respectful distance, in the Railway Stakes.
Any significant rain may play to the strengths of general 12s Super Soldier , who put up a career-best on officially soft ground at Chantilly last time.
Timeform called it good to soft, but even so.
That Chantilly form is arguably a match for anything in here though, but who knows what will land before 2pm?
Just the seven runners in an underwhelming Group 3 Gordon Stakes, in which the top-rated horse, Sir Dinadan, is on a mark of just 112.
So it is little surprise therefore that Merchant is a red-hot favourite at [11/8].
His King George V handicap win off 90 was more notable for the post-race revelations that he had coughed several times the day before and slipped in the saddling area, favouring his leg afterwards. And that the trainer didn’t tell his owners (and maybe others, too).
William Haggas also revealed that he told Tom Marquand to take out the [3/1] favourite out at the start if he wasn’t happy with him.
I thought that extraordinary and let punters know where exactly where they stood in the pecking order, but I guess this happens a lot more than we are told and fair play to William Haggas for his honesty.
Anyway, back to the horse.
He went up 13lb for that handicap win, and the length runner-up hardly let the form down when a ¾-length second to Lambourn in the Irish Derby afterwards.
I’d agree he is the one to beat but Rahiebb, who finished a 2 ½ length second to Merchant giving him 8lb at York in May, wasn’t ridden optimally in the Queen’s Vase and could be the one to stick it up to him again here.
A more forcing ride over this shorter trip could see him take a big step forward and [11/2] looks fair.
Again, I want to see how the ground is riding by 2.30pm, though.
He is currently weak, and a massive [14.0] on Betfair, as at 10.15am.
We can talk all we want about the quality on show but five runners for a 600k Group 1 is piss-poor.
I suspect Whirl will beat See The Fire, but they are [evens] and [11/4] respectively – any rain would probably be more in favour of the former – so I am hardly going to bet on it.
This quality versus quantity line wears a bit thin for bettors after a while, but it’s just where we are at in this country at the moment.
The Group 1 depth just isn’t there, unfortunately.
I am sure many will be willing to forgive American Gulf his poor (ish) show in the Coventry and back at him at [7/1] off a mark of 90 here.
He was well talked-up for Ascot after his impressive Windsor debut win just 15 days previously, and perhaps his pre-race antics were the reason for his underperforming.
But this is not a race I have a betting opinion in, especially as the rain could really have taken hold by this time of the day.
The main forecast I use has the rain getting very tasty from 3pm onwards.
A 60k maiden is a nice pot to win – and a certain Rhododendron won this in 2016 – but it is not for me with so little evidence to go on.
We only have one filly that has raced twice, nine that have seen the racecourse once, and eight newcomers.
This is all yours.
It’s another no from me in this maximum 20-runner handicap 1m field, too – at the moment.
As with all of the races, I may return and do an update once we have a better handle on the state of the ground.
I’ll flag on tony_calvin on X if I do.
Good luck.
Wheels Of Fire at [18/1] each way, four places, and [16/1] each way, five places, in 3.45pm Goodwood on Thursday (18s, four places, is available with one firm but the 16s, five places, is available with nine firms).
I’d say 12s-plus is more than acceptable.
GOING: Heavy after 28.6mm on Thursday afternoon
Thursday morning course update: 22mm rain last Saturday and Sunday 0.2mm rain Thursday night. Showery rain, potentially heavy, from mid morning today (6-25mm). Friday & Saturday look dry with sunny spells. Current weather details from our weather station available here; https://bit.ly/2E6dYhB
Rails: * PLEASE NOTE THE CUTAWAY REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE 2F TODAY AND HAS NOT MOVED BACK TO THE 3.5F***
False rail will be in place on the Top and Bottom Bends and on the Straight to 2f leaving a cutaway for Tuesday and Wednesday. The cutaway will move back to 3.5f on Thursday. All remaining false rail will be removed for Friday and Saturday.
Stall: 5f, 6f, 7f, 1m; Centre 1m3f & 1m4f; Outside, Rest; Inside (2m4f Flip Start)
Weather: up to 14mm (due to start at 10am)
5.30pm: Spirit of Farhh, Shout, El Matado, Mudbir, The Fingal Raven, Spirit of Albion, Saxonia, Anthropologist, Double Parked, Rajeteriat, Kodi Fire
John and Sean Quinn cheekpieces; Magellan Cloud, 1.20pm 1-16 (since 2024)
Charlie Appleby, cheekpieces; Maximised, 1.55pm; 40-134 (2016)
William Haggas cheekpieces; Sea Force,, 5.30pm; 28-195 (2016)
Phillip Makin, cheekpieces; Impartiality, 5.30pm; 1-28 (2019)
John and Thady Gosden, cheekpieces; Wicked, 5.30pm; 13-123 (2021)
1.20pm: Marhaba Ghaiyyath (drawn 7), Seagalazo (11), High Degree (18), Ernst Blofeld (3), Brise Noir (15), Hymnbook (9)
1.55pm: Egoli (4), Puerto Rico (9), Underwriter (2)
2.30pm: Galveston (3),Rahiebb (5), Sir Dinadan (7), Windlord (1)
3.05pm: Running Lion (1), Whirl (4)
3.45pm: Ruby’s Profit (8), Marty Hopkirk (3), Dan Tucker (13), Kinetic Force (2), Fluorescence (4), Naana’s Sparkle (prom – 6), Hi Lord (10), Wheels Of Fire (12), Speed Of Maajid (16)
Good: Hugo Palmer, Aidan O’Brien, William Haggas (very good), John and Thady Gosden, Roger Varian, Jamie Osborne (very good), Karl Burke, Charlie Appleby, James Owen, Richard Spencer, Jedd O’Keeffe, Ed Dunlop, Dylan Cunha, Tom Ward (very small sample), Ralph Beckett, Eve Johnson Houghton
Fair: Richard Hughes, Ed Walker, Andrew Balding, Richard Hannon, Clive Cox, Charlie Johnston, Alan King, Michael Bell, David O’Meara, Newland and Insole, Mick Appleby, Robert Cowell (needs winners), Tom Clover, Kevin Ryan, George Boughey, Brian Meehan, James Horton (borderline moderate from small sample), John and Sean Quinn, Archie Watson, Gary and Josh Moore (need winners, so probably a generous assessment), Joseph Murphy, Ian Williams (three of the last five have won, so probably good), David Loughnane (borderline good), Paul Attwater, Oliver Cole, James Ferguson, Jonathan Portman, Warren Greatrex, Phillip Makin, Scott Dixon, Charles Hills, David Menuisier (very welcome winner on Wednesday)
Moderate: Sean Woods (some have run well enough in defeat), Harry Eustace, Johnny Murtagh, Ed Bethell, Alice Haynes, Keiran Burke, Jack Channon
Not sure: Hamad Al Jehani, S Wattel (recent winner, though), D Donovan (small sample), Niels Petersen, Martyn Meade
On this week’s pod: Intro: Royal Ascot & World Cup (0-3mins) Quick Racing Review (3-4mins)…
2.30pm – Royal Ascot 2yo races – The Bonfire Of The Vanities? Your Song is…
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