By Tony Calvin - 7 April 2025
On Monday morning, Willie Mullins had eight of the 40 in the Scottish Champion Hurdle and 13 of the 58 in the Scottish National.
After Monday’s noon confirmation stage, he currently has seven of 18 (Gaucher misses out) and 11 of 33 (Kilcruit and Quai De Bourbon were not confirmed} respectively.
Game on.
Mullins is now [1/4] across the board for the trainers’ title, with Dan Skelton at [11/4]. Skelton led by £122,026 starting this week.
Mullins has 40 entries on the Saturday Ayr card alone, but a fair few of those are in more than one race.
The double entries for all eight ITV races on Saturday are below.
Any copy will appear on Tuesday, but Willie being mob-handed makes things tricky from an ante-post perspective.
And I want to see what marks a few of the entries are allotted, obviously.
Only the two races above have Oddschecker Ayr grids at the moment – Mullins’ Kargese is 3s for the Champion and his Chosen Witness is the [9/2] market leader – but more will undoubtedly appear in the next 24 hours (all races are now up as of Tuesday morning).
All four Newbury races are on there, though.
I haven’t looked at Newbury but someone pointed out to me today that the Spring Cup at 3.12pm only has a maximum field of 14 – no doubt because it is run on the round course – so I am surprised one firm are betting to four places.
Good on them if they meant it, though…..
Just been added to the ITV schedule, so not looked yet. See Asta La Pasta in double entries, though.
We have 25 in this 3m novices’ handicap chase, and Big Willie only has five of them (four of those are double entered – see all details below).
He is slipping.
Your eye is immediately drawn to Mullins’ Lombron for the simple fact that he can’t go anywhere else this week, and it is no surprise to see that he is the shortest of the Closutton quintet in the betting at [8/1].
A 126-rated hurdler, he is already up to 140 over fences in Ireland after three chase starts, the most recent of which saw him oblige at 2s-on over 2m4f at Clonmel recently.
You’d think he will appreciate this 3m trip on the evidence of that run.
The UK handicapper has given him an extra 2lb.
Plate third Masaccio is the early [5/1] favourite, but it’s a race I can happily leave alone until we know the final field.
Willie has seven of the 18 in here, and they include the current first three in the betting.
Kargese is the [3/1] favourite, with Ethical Diamond at [11/2] and Absurde at 6s.
Be aware Absurde is also in the Group 3 John Porter Stakes at Newbury on Saturday.
I think Kargese is a justifiable 3s poke in here given the way she won at Cheltenham off an 8lb lower mark, but once again I am drawn to Ooh Betty at the 33s in six spots, three firms of which offer four places.
I think they made a mistake holding her up in the Imperial Cup last time, so I’d be tempted to take a more positive view of that run than a 9 3/4 length 11th would immediately suggest.
Her only other disappointment this season came when similarly held up at Newbury.
The three times she has been ridden prominently this term she has run crackers, most obviously when a 3-length third to Take No Chances (third in two Grade 1s since) and subsequent County Hurdle winner Kargese in a Grade 2 at Ascot.
She is 14lb better off for the 2 1/4 lengths she was behind Kargese (admittedly not at her best) that day, and I think this mare is better than her rating of 132 would suggest.
Given the right tactics.
Ben Clarke has his small string in good form and, while I have no idea if she is a planned runner – Clarke has never had a runner at Ayr before, but this is a 56k+ pot to the winner, so it would be madness to ignore (the field is already two below the maximum) – the 33s each way, four places, looks too good to ignore.
Any 33s each way, three places, or 25s each way, four places, is fine, too.
A nagging worry is that Ayr have not provided any watering details since last Friday, it is currently good to soft (some going at the moment, so they must have unloaded plenty) and Clarke says quick ground is “imperative for her.”
It is madness how punters don’t know how much Ayr (and Newbury) have watered in the last week – I bet Willie and Dan do.
I won’t be chuffed if Ooh Betty doesn’t run because the ground is too soft in the middle of an unseasonably hot, dry spell.
Just the 18 in this 3m mares’ handicap hurdle.
Mullins has just two, the doubly-entered Armed And Fabulous, and Paggane.
This is a very open race, with 5s the field, but if you fancy [7/1] chance Nurse Susan be aware she is also in on Friday (quite a few of these have alternative engagements – see below).
Aston Martini and Lavida Adiva are vying for favouritism around the 5s mark.
Happy to leave this race alone.
Mullins (sorry to go on about him) has a third of the field in this 33-strong Scottish National, and his Chosen Witness is the clear [9/2] favourite.
He is actually as low as [7/2] in places for a race that could house 30 on the day.
A 16-1 winner at this meeting last year, it’ll be very interesting to see what the UK handicapper does with him after his unseat 4 out in a Grade 2 at Navan last time (he is rated 134 in Ireland). That was only his third chase start.
The UK handicapper has given him an extra 3lb.
He looks ludicrously short, for all he was lobbing away nicely enough before departing at Navan last time.
Famous last words etc.
Another one for a Thursday rethink.
This looks pretty defensively priced up at this stage.
The aforementioned Absurde (best price of 3s) is doubly entered.
Sunway is the marginal [5/2] favourite.
There are 23 in the Fred Darling and [5/1] chance Bedtime Story is still in an early-closer at the Curragh on Saturday as I write this (was confirmed for the Irish race on Tuesday).
Others vying for favouritism are Mountain Breeze, Simmering and Heavens Gate.
Sixteen in the Greenham, but don’t back one of those. Cosmic Year, who ranges from 8s to 10s, is in a Kempton novice on Wednesday evening.
Again, a very tight and open betting heat with Rashabar, Field Of Gold and Chancellor all disputing favouritism
As I said above, just a maximum of 14 for the 70k Spring Cup, which is being run on the round course.
Qirat is the [7/2] favourite but I couldn’t touch him – not least because he is also in a 50k handicap at Musselburgh on Sunday night.
And his best form has come on soft ground, which he certainly won’t be getting at Newbury however much they water.
I am not inclined to go anywhere near Newbury for ante-post betting purposes.
Ooh Betty at 33/1 each way, four places, in Scottish Champion Hurdle at 2.15pm at Ayr on Saturday. That combination is available in three places (33s each way, three places, or 25s each way, four places, is fine).
——
NEWBURY (no watering details given, but fair level of detail otherwise)
Good, good to firm in places
Soil moisture average = 43%
Going Stick : 5.7 at 6am Wednesday (was 6.1 on Monday)
Rails: All bends on the inner most line (Friday)
Stalls:1m2f & 2m110y = inside Remainder = centre (Friday)
Wednesday morning update: We lost 2mm in evapotranspiration (ET) yesterday. Grass frost this morning. Forecast: Dry & sunny. Average temperatures 17C with highs of 21C on Friday and low winds.
Watering: Aiming for Good, Good to Firm in places (no details given as to how)
On Tue, 08 Apr 9:23am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – aiming to maintain Good, Good to Firm in places.
On Mon, 07 Apr 7:46am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – Aiming for Good, Good to Firm in places.
On Fri, 04 Apr 8:52am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – Selective – watering to maintain.
Going & Live Weather Data: newburyracecourse.co.uk/going/
Weather: Dry and sunny, 16 degrees
Good to Soft
Hurdle Track Softer In Back Straight, Watering Selective Areas From Now On
Going Stick 6.4 on Wed 7.15am (Chase 6.4; hurdles 6.1)
Rails: All Rails Inner Most Line
Wednesday morning update: Sunny.0mm Past 24hrs Wed: Sunny, High 17c Low 2c Thur: Sunny, High 17c Low 6c Fri: Sunny, High 16c Low 5c Sat: Sunny, High 18c Low 6c
Weather: Dry and sunny 17 degrees
Watering: 8mm Being Applied Full Circuit (presumably last Friday)
ON BHA site
On Fri, 04 Apr 7:48am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – 8mm Being Applied Full Circuit
On Wed, 02 Apr 7:42am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) –
1.10pm Ayr: Asta La Pasta (entered overnight at Ayr on Friday)
1.25pm Newbury: Absurde
1.43pm Ayr: Captain Cody, Klarc Kent, Loughglynn, Olympic Man, Walking On Air, Walk On Quest, Whistle Stop Tour, Thisformismighty
2pm Newbury: Bedtime Story (apparently heads to Curragh according to stable, but plans change)
2.15pm Ayr: Absurde
2.35pm Newbury: Cosmic Year (entered overnight at Kempton on Wednesday)
2.55pm Ayr: Armed And Fabulous, Disco Annie, Golden Point, Musique De Fee (entered overnight at Newton Abbot on Thursday), Nurse Susan (entered overnight at Ayr on Friday)
3.12pm Newbury: Great Chieftain, Inishfallen, Qirat
3.35pm Ayr: Captain Cody, Klarc Kent, Loughglynn, Olympic Man, Thisformismighty, Walking On Air, Whistle Stop Tour
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