By Tony Calvin - 16 October 2025
We have three-old stagers in here, two of which are regulars in this race, and a couple of youngsters from the Aidan O’Brien camp.
You’d have thought Ballydoyle’s Saratoga, only fifth off a mark of 93 at Naas on Sunday, is presumably in here to be a spoiler and troublemaker – as well as pocketing at least 14k for turning up – on the front end and that may be congested enough as it is with Al Qareem a usual forward-goer, and the favourite Trawlerman occasionally so.
O’Brien’s main hope is Leger third Stay True, having just his fifth start, at a drifting [7/1] best. He was [7/2] and 4s late on Thursday morning, so this market has corrected itself now.
He obviously has to be respected getting the 7lb age allowance (although the oldies have always held sway in this race) but it has to be said he didn’t look to be crying out further than the extended 1m6f at Doncaster, a race in which he traded at 1.33 in running and seemed to empty a touch close home.
It is too early to pigeon-hole him as a doubtful stayer on such limited evidence, and he was supplemented for this, remember, though I’d definitely be veering elsewhere if I was looking to take on the favourite. But at least he has hit a far better price now to accommodate the doubts.
Al Qareem is an admirable warhorse, who arguably put up a career-best when winning over 1m4f here last time, but he is another who I have my doubts about stamina-wise.
He did win over 1m7f in France back in 2022 but all his best efforts have come over 1m4f-1m6f.
Of course, this five-runner race could be run at a false pace, but Big John Gozza will be alive to proven stamina over further being his horses’ premier weapons here and he will surely instruct his jockeys accordingly.
In the case of Trawlerman, winner of this race in 2023 and better than ever this season on the evidence of his 2m4f Gold Cup win here in the summer, he has the class to accompany his suitability to the trip, too.
I wouldn’t lay him at [1/2] – he is now a general [4/9], with Friday evening’s [4/7] being taken, as I think you only really have one horse running for you. This looks a two-way go to me.
Which is why I wouldn’t lay Sweet William each way, though it has to be said he has probably hit his price now.
The 7s, 6s and 5s has been taken in the last 44 hours (betting re-opened around 11am on Thursday and I am tweaking this at 7am) and he is now [9/2].
I agree with that move, for all the serious money is yet to surface, clearly – and I did get a bit of the bigger early prices, for what it is worth (which is none clearly for those reading this now…) – and I probably wouldn’t lay him each way at [9/2] either, available with AKBets.
Sure, Trawlerman saw off his stablemate off by 1 ¼ lengths in the Lonsdale Cup at York in August but Sweet William ran a cracker there and did so again when winning at his favourite Doncaster last time, though admittedly the runner-up Pendragon was only rated 97 at the time (he is an up-and-comer, though)
Sweet William finished 1 ½ lengths ahead of the jolly when second to Kyprios in this race last year, and I have a feeling that he could do so again.
Which, admittedly, is quite hard to translate to convincing copy as regards his winning chance.
But the fact he is here when connections have twice said Doncaster was him finished for the season – “I’ve already been instructed that’s it for the season”, said Gosden senior after that win – suggests to me that the trainer thinks he has his horse in top order and has persuaded owner Philippa Cooper (middle-aged presenters swoon at the very name) that he is well worth one last 2025 hurrah here.
9.20am BETTING UPDATE: Trawlerman is out to [4/6] with AKBets, and the move for Sweet William continues, as he is into [7/2] now.
Stay True is out to 8s.
No-one is going to argue that Words Of Truth shouldn’t be a strong favourite in this, as an unpenalised Group 2 Mill Reef winner , with the best form and time credentials – he has really kicked on since being gelded and is proven on this track, too – but my gut is saying I would rather have the field running for me in an evens coin-toss.
And maybe this 6f test on good ground may not play to his staying strengths.
But the early market has seen Words Of Truth go from [4/5] to [5/4], and you have to go to [6/4]+ to lay him at the moment.
If you directly oppose him, I do think you have at least four or five very credible contenders running for you, most obviously, to my way of thinking, Division and Sir Albert.
Whether it was William Haggas’ or the owner’s decision to back Division up so quickly after his York success last weekend – the trainer tends to like his targets more spaced out – he clearly is a progressive horse well worthy of respect and he has been backed from 6s to a general 4s now.
As is Sir Albert after his much-improved third in the Flying Scotsman at Doncaster last time, in which he was only ½ length behind subsequent Autumn Stakes winner Hankelow in second, with the winner unbeaten in two starts.
He has gone the other way in the market and is now a general 14s. Tempting.
Of course, both of those have to improve to beat the favourite, but O’Brien has a couple of dangerous rivals in here too and the punted Siren Suit (16s on Thursday but into a mere 6s now – surely has to drift back out), so the way I was going to personally play this race was to just lay the favourite at around evens or [11/10] and have the field running for me.
But laying at the current [6/4] plus is less appealing.
I’ll see which way the betting takes us there – I am pretty keen to have the field running for me – but I have just had a very small each way bet (a score, so little of consequence) on Sir Albert at 14s.
If he was called Prince Albert, I’d say that had the ring of a fair bet.
Kamakameleon is a NR as at 8.17am (lame). No Rule 4.
Kansas is also out at 9.58am (not eaten up). Again no Rule 4.
9.20am BETTING UPDATE:
AKBets are clear top price about Words Of Truth at [6/4].
There is a few quid around for Mission Central (and it probably is only a few quid, at the moment…), it seems, 9s into [13/2].
Division is into [7/2].
Now, let’s be honest here. This is one minefield of a Group 1 sprint.
A maximum field of 20 runners (well it was until Rosy Affair came out yesterday), with early speed across the track (the pace maybe suggests you want to be drawn middle to high – see below – but we haven’t got going stick readings across the track, which I originally thought was very poor for a showcase Group 1 meeting).
But then Ascot’s Will Aitkenhead, Head Of Corporate and Industry Affairs, explained to me on X:
“Typically we don’t take them across the track at BCD because the track is significantly narrowed to the 3f pole and how you measure would be inconsistent/misleading. We’ll look at doing it but it’s hard to work out where to measure – full width of track or where they will race.”
Fair enough, and fair play to Will for explaining.
It would have been nice though, which is why I asked.
If you don’t ask, you don’t get etc.
And well played to Ascot, as they have duly gone out of their way to source the data, and publish the information, for punters to use as they see fit, this morning.
It reads:
“For BCD the straight has been narrowed by 10 meters from 1m to 3f.
“Today’s readings have been taken from ‘lanes’ of approximately 7 meters from 1m to 3f expanding to 10 meters from 3f to the finish.
“Using this process, stand side, centre and far side data has been published covering both sections of the track in full. 1m to 3f: Stand side 8.5, Centre 8.1, Far side 7.9. 3f to finish: Stand side 8.4, Centre 8.9, Far side 8.0.”
My nominal two against the field would be Flora Of Bermuda and Inisherin, but prices of 10s and 14s aren’t overly-engaging in a race of this depth, if truth be told, but big enough.
The big problem with Inisherin, probably the most talented horse in here outside of the Royal Ascot version at Lazzat and therefore chanced, is the form of the Kevin Ryan stable yard.
The horse ran a great race in the face of that draw bias in the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock last time but I do struggle with the trainer’s form, as it stands, going into Friday’s racing (see below). But maybe that is why we are getting 14s and not 10s.
That also leads me to Flora Of Bermuda, beaten two necks in this race last year and who has put up three efforts this season (we can forgive her July Cup run, as that was one of the occasions where she left her race in the stalls) that makes her a strong place contender here.
But is her draw in one any good? I am doubtful.
I have still chucked a few quid on the pair above on the exchange – Insisherin is actually the marginally bigger personal play – but certainly nothing of any note.
I wouldn’t be surprised if any one of 18 here (I am discarding Powerful Glory – which has just gone and won at 200-1 ffs!) and that obviously includes Quinault at 66s, as he predictably struggled in the face of a strong headwind here last time.
There is a move currently going for Lazzat as I publish this.
9.20am BETTING UPDATE: Lazzat is into 3s.
Lazzat is [14/5] with AKBets and they are top price about the rest.
All of ’em.
The problem I have with this race, if it is a problem, is that I think a prime Kalpana wins this, but does her general price of [11/4], available with AKBets, compensate for the doubts?
She was decent when winning this race last season and better again when second to Calandagan in the King George, and I think she wins if reproducing those efforts.
The obvious issue is that she has gone off the boil since, even though she had a wide trip in the Arc, and I can let her go now the 4s earlier in the week is a distant memory.
As with the previous race, I am going in half-hearted and dutching Wemightakedlongway and Quisisana at 11s and [17/2] respectively, or bigger if you can find it, win-only.
As I said earlier in the week I’d have like to have seen some headgear on the former, but connections have not seen sense.
That outfit will never do anything ignoring the bleedin’ obvious, but they may get away with it here….
A strong runner-up to Minnie Hauk in the Irish Oaks, she looked very awkward – veering this way and that up the straight – when fourth in the Prix de l’Opera last time, a short neck behind the supplemented One Look, and I think the step back up to 1m4f will suit.
I also wouldn’t mind them reverting to more aggressive tactics here, as Ballet Slippers looks the sole pace rival if they do.
If they don’t perhaps Ballet Slippers could get an easy and be interesting enough at 28s after a belated start to her campaign at the Curragh last month (that’s the fourth horse I have stuck up then…).
Anyway, back to Quisisana.
I backed her in the Arc and she ran below expectations, without running badly.
In fact, I thought she was going to drop away there but she was actually coming back at the finish.
I don’t know if there is anything in it, but her only three defeats have come at Longchamp so perhaps she doesn’t like the place.
On her impressive Group 1 win previously (and I know it is traditionally a very weak Group 1), she could make these all go, but it does look a deep enough race, if not on official ratings.
She’d be my number one bet in the race if asked, and I may play her each-way, too (I have).
I’m happy to take my chances to minimum stakes here, though.
9.20am BETTING UPDATE: Kalpana is into [23/10] tops, with AKBets.
Everything else is pretty weak.
This race has a very similar vibe to the Fillies and Mares, in that Field Of Gold surely takes a lot of whacking here if back to his blistering best but, as I always say, if is the most expensive word in betting.
He obviously has to bounce back from the Goodwood disappointment in a mess of a race (they also said he returned home lame) and there is a suspicion that the 126 rating he was given for his wide-margin Curragh and Ascot wins maybe overestimates his ability.
The runners-up haven’t done much for the form since, that is for sure.
Rosallion has drifted to a big each-way price at 5s now and I have backed him – you can crab the defeats but he will surely be hard to kick out of the first four, even if Sean Levey sits backwards in the saddle on him, for all that draw in 15 of 16 may not be ideal (get the best place terms your accounts allow) – but the more I looked at this race the more credible challengers I found.
Fallen Angel put up a career-best in the Sun Chariot in a great time on her most recent start and is a fair price at 9s, and you can make win and place claims for a fair few others, too.
I took a small swing – small by accident rather than design, as I could only get pennies on, this being such a lowly contest, after all – at Alakazi each way at 33s earlier in the week, but I have gone off him a touch.
There is no doubt he comes in here at the peak of his powers, with further heights ahead, after a good win in an admittedly average Group 2 last time, and by all accounts he is a big unit just coming to himself physically.
He is the unknown factor here for sure, but this is a big step up in class, I fully accept.
Perhaps far bigger than I thought on Monday, which is why he is out to 40s, I guess.
Let’s hope my early each-way lean remains my more accurate call.
9.20am BETTING UPDATE: Pretty static market but AKBets, again, are top price about the first four in the market.
Hang on, I have just seen the move for the ex-Septic Carl Spackler, having his first official start for the Gozzas.
He is into 11s now (though much bigger win-only), having been 66s and 50s on Thursday after the final decs.
It is not often you get five horses of the quality of Ombudsman, Calandagan, Delacroix, Economics and Almaqam in the same race – and find someone stupid enough to take them all on.
But I remain of the opinion that one horse can improve past them all, and I am backing him win-only at 28s and bigger.
The 28s and 25s is a fair base point, but he could be double that in exchange-land near the off.
Fox Legacy obviously lacks the proven Group 1 pedigree of the above but his career trajectory means it is not a fanciful notion that he could be competitive here, and maybe provide a shock.
He was beaten off a mark of 77 little over a year ago when trained by Sir Michael Stoute but he has sprouted wings this season, his only defeat in four coming when winning his group when sixth over an inadequate mile in the Hunt Cup.
And he was ridiculously impressive when hammering 100+-rated horses at Goodwood in a decent time on his most recent start.
The handicapper upped him 15lb for that success (to a mark of 116), and anything approaching similar progression here makes him a place contender, and something more perhaps.
He could well run a career-best and finish sixth here, but I am happy to side with him at the price.
He hugely impressed me at Goodwood, and I am paying to find out how good he is here.
I suspect the exchange is the place to go, given the high-profile Big Five will dominate that market and the outsiders lengthening accordingly in a near 100 percent book.
But we will see. I’m always happy to press up at bigger odds.
9.20am BETTING UPDATE: Ombudsman is best at [15/8] and AKBets are betting this aggressively, with plenty of bold type down the line here.
If you are behind coming into this 20-runner 1m handicap, then maybe accept your fate.
As this really does look impossible.
Or rather the obvious horses like Native Warrior, Shout, Crown Of Oaks and Fifth Column’s prices have all been squeezed to within an inch of their lives, at least fixed-odds wise.
And all the juicy prices about Arisaig have also been taken.
I couldn’t see an angle for which the betting door hadn’t already been slammed in my face, so no bet for me.
But I am having another look now, and I may do an update on this race at 9am, when I return with an AKBets-focused betting revision.
Given the talent on show, it is actually not a big betting day for me.
I have thrown a tenner on Hafeet Alain at [75.0] on the grounds that he is in-form (this may well be his last race, actually), the sole pace angle (from what I could see) and he could well be drawn in the right place (I think).
I suspect he isn’t well enough handicapped to win this, but the price was appealing enough.
He is a general 50s, fixed odds, with extra places.
I’ve had a tenner each way there, too.
9.20am BETTING UPDATE: Nothing much doing here.
GOING – Round course: Good; Straight course: Good
GOING STICK: Round course: 7.3 (was 7.4 on Thursday; 7.0 on Monday); Straight course: 8.2 (was 7.9. Thursday, was 7.8 on Monday) – update as at 8.15am Saturday
For further detailed data; Stands side, Centre and Far side readings please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Straight 8.2, Round 7.3 on 18/10/25 at 08:15.
For BCD the straight has been narrowed by 10 meters from 1m to 3f.
Today’s readings have been taken from ‘lanes’ of approximately 7 meters from 1m to 3f expanding to 10 meters from 3f to the finish. Using this process, stand side, centre and far side data has been published covering both sections of the track in full.
1m to 3f: Stand side 8.5, Centre 8.1, Far side 7.9.
3f to finish: Stand side 8.4, Centre 8.9, Far side 8.0.
Some drainage work, sand slitting was completed on the round course from approx the 1m 4F start to the 4F marker in September.
Soil Moisture: 32%. Readings taken at 8am Thursday. The next readings will be taken on Saturday morning
Saturday morning course update: Dry through the past 24 hours to 6.30am Saturday morning. 0.6mm recorded over the past 7 days. A dry cloudy day is forecast. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to: www.ascot.com/thegoing
Weather: Dry, overcast and 15-16 degrees
4.40pm: Aalto, Galeron and Classic, Apiarist, Hickory, Alpha Crucis, Linwood, Mr Chaplin, Epictetus, Tribal Nation, Duke’s Command, Back In Black, Shamrock Bay, Leadman, Earl Of Rochester, At Rangi, Principality, El Matador, Grizedale, Cogitate, Dapper Guest, Queen Of Atlantis, Mythical Guest, Racingbreaks Ryder, One Night Thunder
1.30pm: Stay True; 2.05pm: Rayevka, Rosy Affair (now a NR); 2.45pm: One Look; 3.25pm: Marvelman; 4.05pm: Devil’s Advocate, First Look
Ralph Beckett, blinkers; Egoli, 1.30pm; 39-271
Charles Hills, blinkers; Iberian, 2.05pm; 10-80
Eve Johnson Houghton cheekpieces; Great Acclaim, 4.40pm; 13-146
Michael Bell, cheekpieces; Greek Order, 4.40pm; 4-54
Ian Williams, hood; Aalto, 4.40pm; 5-50
12.55pm: Al Qareem (drawn 5), Trawlerman (2), Saratoga (1)
1.30pm: Division (9), Egoli (1), Gentle George (12), Mission Central (7), Sir Albert (11), Siren Suit (5), Super Soldier (8), Watcha Snoop (13), Slay Queen (4)
2.05pm: Art Power (10), Lazzat (7), Quinault (15), Witness Stand (19), Spy Chief (4) – Rosy Affair NR
2.45pm: Ballet Slippers (3), Wemightakedlongway (6)
3.25pm: Carl Spackler? (5), Quddwah (10), Fallen Angel (8), The Lion In Winter? (2)
4.05pm: Devil’s Advocate (11), Mount Kilimanjaro (8), Almaqam (1), First Look (5), Prague? (3)
4.40pm (lead looks his for the taking): Hafeet Alain (21)
Inisherin probably has a better chance than 14-1 quotes suggest in the Sprint, but the stable form has to be a concern.
Don’t get me wrong, a few of Kevin Ryan’s have been running well enough, and at least three have been beaten in tight finishes in the last fortnight or so (including on Friday), so we are dealing with fine margins here.
But he is on a losing run of 46 now , and his strike rate from May to September was poor as well, with the only time he hit a double-figure strike-rate being in July (11 per cent).
Not a positive.
————————-
Good: John and Thady Gosden, Aidan O’Brien (though not great for him), William Haggas, Ralph Beckett, Charlie Appleby, Paddy Twomey, F-H Graffard, Simon and Ed Crisford, Richard Hughes
Fair: Karl Burke, David Menuisier, Hugo Palmer, Mick Appleby, George Boughey, Dylan Cunha, Andrew Balding, Richard Hannon, Tim Easterby, Charles Hills, Clive Cox, James Fanshawe, Stuart Williams, Ed Walker, Newland and Insole (borderline moderate), Richard Fahey, David O’Meara (borderline moderate), Owen Burrows, Joseph O’Brien, Roger Teal, Harry Eustace (borderline moderate), Johnny Murtagh (winners on Thursday and Friday), Andre Fabre, Muir and Grassick (winner on Thursday), Eve Johnson Houghton, Charlie Johnston, Tony Martin, Michael Bell, Roger Varian, Ian Williams, Jamie Osborne
Moderate: Kevin Ryan (see above), Henry Candy
Don’t know: J Reynier
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