By Tony Calvin - 9 January 2025
I am out of action from early Friday morning onwards – – it looks as if I am wifi and TV-less in the deep Oxfordshire countryside for 48 hours, though even Bear Grylls, allegedly, used a hotel I seem to recall, when meant to be getting as one with nature- so I thought about ditching the weekend column for once, especially as I won’t be in a position to update it on Saturday morning.
I like to add to the column on the day-of-race itself, and flag new, and personal, betting angles after changing prices, each way terms and conditions etc, but that simply won’t be possible this weekend.
And, with 24-hour decs for some of the new Saturday fixtures (at Ffos Las and Chelmsford, courtesy of the BHA) meaning final fields for those aren’t known until 10am on Friday, I can hardly cover those either.
So I have decided to just concentrate on the Kempton card here, for all I am sure ITV will incorporate the above two courses into their programme, and maybe others too if they survive their inspections.
Probably in vain, mind you.
I currently have no idea what races are on ITV (their racing schedule site simply says TBC), so I have decided to cover all of Kempton and hope for the best.
I don’t follow or bet on the all-weather, so Chelmsford and Newcastle wouldn’t appeal anyway (no point in denying that), and ITV will be showing the re-routed Towton from Ffos Las.
The fact that Kempton didn’t go below freezing, as forecast, on Wednesday night (they only hit +1), would have slightly helped the chances of the meeting being on, but it is probably still a touch of odds-against to get the green light.
It sounds as if they will leave it until Saturday morning before making the final call, but if they get down to as low as -4 on Thursday night, and follow it up with a -3 on Friday, then you have to fear for the card (admittedly some forecasts have it as warmer than that, and I have seen some go as high as -1 tonight, which would be handy, if possibly wishful thinking).
This could all be worthless then – no sniggering at the back please – but I’ll go through each of the seven races here and you can decide for yourself whether you take note or not.
For the sake of openness, I should add that I haven’t had a bet yet, and probably won’t be doing so – so it is make your own mind up after reading the column, once again – unless I pitch 50 foot up a tree looking for a signal at the crack of dawn (that reminds me of a Young Ones sketch).
By the way, thank you for reading.
The column got record numbers over the Christmas period – Boxing Day’s beat the previous column-best by a massive 40 per cent, from an already healthy base of regulars – so hopefully we have got the format half-right from a copy, detail and depth perspective, with a changing, updated dynamic (if not this week, though I am giving this a final sub and edit at 5am…).
I am happy with it anyway – this new column’s also chattier and more open style gives me a greater peace of mind, not to be underestimated, and a freedom to take in the wider marketplace and highlights its pluses and negatives – even if some clearly aren’t, which is fine, but life is too short to be dealing with some people, even if I always respond and reply the first time.
Anyway, good luck this weekend, and I’ll be back later today with the Kempton copy (probably 7.30pm or so).
All the stats and info for Kempton are below, including a balloted out section.
We haven’t had that for a while.
I wouldn’t go overboard by just how much money it has taken to see Lulamba shorten into the general [4/1] favourite for the Triumph Hurdle – some bookies just exchange-track and take pre-emptive action – but hopefully we will at least see if the move has been justified in the opener.
A winner of his only start in France, at Auteuil in October, he is a best-priced [8/15] – but a general [4/9] – chance to make a successful debut for Nicky Henderson and the Donnellys here, and he may well be the real deal.
It seems silly short to me, but everyone has Sir Gino fresh in their minds, I guess.
But for every French hotpot like him, there are expensive blow-outs like Jet Powered (not that he came from France), so let’s just watch and see.
On paper, he doesn’t have an easy task at all, though.
He has to give 8lb to the 86-rated Flat recruit St Pancras (cost 95.000gns in October after a 7-length win at Southwell earlier that month) and he has a smart, fellow ex-French recruit to deal with in Sauvignon.
Like Lulamba, Sauvignon would have not come cheap.
If anything, the [3/1] chance Sauvignon probably cost a lot more after winning a Listed race in June (the runner-up finished third on his Irish debut in a Grade 2 on Boxing Day but those further in behind have done little for the form), and the UK handicapper has him on a mark of 138.
You sense that Paul Nicholls would love it, just love it, Keegan-stylee, were he to win this and have a potential Cheltenham jolly on his hands.
If Lulamba downs Sauvignon in style here, or indeed Toby Lawes’ St Pancras (top at 16s but a general 11s poke), then maybe those Triumph Hurdle quotes (and to be fair it doesn’t look a deep division this season – yet) could be justified.
The most recent going stick readings suggest it is far deeper on the hurdles’ track, by the way.
It is not out of the realms of possibility that Henderson could have another Festival favourite on his hands if Khrisma wins this in impressive fashion.
I assume she is eligible for the wide-open mares’ novices’ hurdle anyway.
I imagine connections will be disappointed if she can’t make the most of the 13lb she gets from Uttoxeter winner Fingle Bridge, though of course I have no idea what the Henderson mare is capable of, even though she was placed in a Grade 1 bumper in France, and Olly Murphy’s horse did look a fair tool in his victory.
And Lud’or (also in at Ffos Las on Saturday before final fields are known) may have plenty to say about who wins too, after a couple of good efforts in defeat.
At best prices, it is currently [6/4] Khrisma plays [9/4] Fingle Bridge and [3/1] Lud’or, with 14s bar, which brings in the 79-rated Flat recruit Graham.
Khrisma runs in a first-time hood and Henderson has a pretty good record with this angle (see below).
There may have been a few cliff-jumpers after Saint Segal finally got off the mark at Newbury last time, a switch to forcing tactics seeing him make all to win by 11 lengths.
However, he went up 8lb for that, this is a much deeper race and he certainly won’t have an easy time of it on the lead if they want to go forward on him again (or so the pace map says, anyway).
He may well follow up – he has the back-class to win off his revised mark – but even the 3s in two places isn’t really doing it for me (he is actually as low as [9/4] in places).
Harry Derham is the “Trainer In Focus” again and he runs two in here.
Hubrisko, 25s in a spot, is the most interesting of the pair perhaps at the prices – Sir Pyscho is best at [11/2] – but Derham said last week, when the horse was meant to run at Sandown, that he may need another run to put him straight, so bear that in mind.
Trainers have been known to be very wrong, though.
And maybe to put punters away on occasions, too…
It should also be noted that both horses are in a 2m handicap chase at Ffos Las on Saturday too (final decs are known at 10am on Friday), so maybe we won’t know first preferences until then.
In fact, Triple Trade, Keep Running and Salamanca Bay are also in that Ffos Las race, and that meeting looks set to go ahead.
With that in mind, allied to the fact this is just a nine-runner race, be alert to non-runners and changing each-way terms.
Carbon King is arguably the most attractively-priced at [20/1], available in three places, given 2m4f in testing ground will suit, and he is down to a mark of 122 now, just 3lb higher than when winning so well at Uttoxeter in April.
The pace (anticipated pace, anyway) could well suit his stalking run-style, too.
With eight runners, watch out for non-runners in this 3m handicap chase too (though none of these are also in at Ffos Las).
Smarty Wild is in at Exeter on Monday but they will surely take up this opportunity if the meeting is on – bird in the hand is worth two in the bush etc, not to mention that Exeter had 10cm of snow yesterday! – and he is a fair price at [13/2] from a stable in top form (see below). In fact, he is 7s now.
The horse also has course form figures of 6132F32 (that was a 6th of 20, and he was going well when falling), including a second in this race in 2023 off an 8lb higher mark. He also finished second in this contest in 2022.
He was actually beaten 17 lengths by all-the-way winner Annsam in 2023 and he is 15lb better off here.
Both of those horses ran poorly last time but connections of Annsam have probably had a repeat bid in mind with two recent hurdle runs (after a long absence), and the handicapper has dropped him 7lb since his last chase start.
On paper, Annsam has at least two pace rivals in this, which is not ideal, but he is 11s in three places, and I wouldn’t lay that myself (the wild early 20s and 16s has gone, as as the 14s and 12s – strangely generous early prices yet again)
The recurring, and now obvious, angle with this horse is catching him after a couple of runs. Indeed, he has won on his third campaign start in all of his six seasons of racing, though the pattern is a little different this year.
In fact, dutching him and [7/1] Smarty Wild may not be a bad betting angle into this, even if the latter would probably welcome a touch better ground.
I initially wrote that Pic D’Orhy has to be a lay here at [4/9], but that would be a very misleading thing to relay.
He is [4/9] best and as short as [2/5], but that’s a back price. Not a lay price.
You often hear people say this and that is a lay, assuming that you can somehow magically lay the best (or even worst) fixed-odds price, which is clearly not the case.
For example, Pic D’Orhy is already trading at 1.57 in the incredibly illiquid exchange market.
I can see why some exchange layers would be tempted to go out to [8/15] to try to get him as he was well off his best when beating a 128-rated horse on his return and he is vulnerable here, for all he is clearly the class horse in the field at his best.
Look, a reproduction of his win in this race in 2022 or his second to Banbridge (who he was giving 3lb to) would see him win this, but that run last time (he had his third wind op beforehand) gives you hope of getting him chinned under a 6lb penalty at the age of 10.
The problem is you have very little running for you if you simply lay him – the admittedly unpenalized Hitman probably wants better ground (the form book would argue a touch there, mind you) and is hard to win with, and Unexpected Party is outclassed, and the simple angle may be to back Martator at 5s, available in 15 places.
I should add that neither of the jockeys on Hitman and Unexpected Party can claim their usual 3lb.
The 8yo Martator disappointed in the Desert Orchid last time but that shaped like a strange enough race, and 2m on decent ground on this speed-favouring track was not probably not ideal, and his earlier Ascot win oozed class.
He has form over 2m4f in testing ground, obviously in a much lesser grade, and if I were betting on the race – from the top of that tree, arms outstretched for that signal – it’d probably be on him.
Small.
Three horses were balloted out at the overnight stage, so make sure you get your money back on those (see below).
With the ground promising to ride so testing over hurdles – only four of the 20 runners finished in this race on officially soft ground in 2023 – do not be surprised if this is a war of attrition.
I am not going to go around the houses by mentioning all and sundry in this hugely competitive handicap but my two against the field are Derham’s Il Va De Soi and Dans Le Vent at 10s (available in two places) and 28s respectively (just one, so the general 25s is fine).
Rocking my French vibe there.
The former shaped well at Cheltenham on his return on good ground, in what was a decent time, and these testing conditions surely have to suit him far better.
Runner-up in a bumper here on his Rules debut, Derham said in a Racing Post stable tour on October 30 that he hoped he could develop into a “Lanzarote Hurdle type”. He’d be my number one in the race, with 8s and upwards okay.
Dans Le Vent went up 2lb for a close third at Chepstow last time but he is still a Burger King whopping 17lb lower than when fifth in this race in 2022, after not getting the most optimal of rides from off the pace that day.
He is as big as 28s in a spot and a general 25s (with firms paying five places) and that is surely too big, even in such a deep pool.
Evan Williams could well have a very good day at Kempton on Saturday, providing he doesn’t have the prospect of a long drive home after a late abandonment…. – unfortunately not a big price.
I was all over Spirits Bay at Sandown last week, and he was well backed (from an opening 12s into 6s the afternoon before), only for the weather to intervene.
Bookies were not going to make the same mistake twice and he is just a top-priced [9/2] in this handicap.
And it is a warm 15-runner handicap to boot.
Ninth Loch was also supported on his debut for Derham before the Wincanton card went last Saturday too, and this just looks a deep race all round.
I couldn’t work out why one firm went 11s about recent Chepstow runner-up Bucephalus (the next best price is 8s) but then I clocked the jockey and that must be their angle.
I know zero about 7lb claimer Harriet Tucker bar her career stats (8 from 194) and this season (0 from 21), but, then again, she was on the horse (a 28s chance) at Chepstow and she didn’t do badly therem did she?
The horse went up 2lb for that run, and that looks fair enough. He has another fair place chance here.
Latin Verse looks a touch overpriced at 22s to me, too.
The stable is in good form, people are saying positive things about 7lb claimer Callum Pritchard, and a combination of 2m on deep ground is probably what the horse wants.
He went off 14s for the Boodles after an impressive win at Ludlow (Timeform called it heavy that day and it will surely ride similarly here) and conditions, plus a mark of 119, could just see him be very competitive here.
Have a good weekend all, and hopefully Kempton is on.
I strongly suspect they will be announcing an inspection first thing on Friday morning, though.
Probably not betting myself this week as I can’t track events properly, but the two in the Lanzarote if it is on, and you can access the five places (Il Va De Soi and Dans Le Vent at 10s and 28s respectively – 8s and 25s is acceptable). Preference would be for the Derham grey if you wanted only one bet in the race.
Going – Soft, heavy in places
Going stick reading – Chase: 5.1; Hurdle: 4.3 (12.15pm Thursday) – firmed up a bit after a sunny Thursday so far
Weather: –4 Thursday night;- 3 Friday night
Course update: “Broken Showers. +1C overnight. We had 1mm of precipitation overnight. Forecast: high of +3C today with risk of wintry showers. -4C on Thursday night with daytime temperature on Friday of +2C. Friday evening is currently -2C but that may change.”
Rails:
The Chase Course is 4 yards out and the Winter Hurdle Course is 8 yards out from innermost configurations, with the effect on distances added to race distance details
3.18pm Kempton: Mayhem Mya, Fine Casting, Latin Verse
Nicky Henderson hood 21-74 (since 2013) – Khrisma, 1pm Kempton
David Pipe blinkers 51-395 – Remastered, 2.10pm Kempton
Sam Thomas cheekpieces 2-20 – Stolen Silver, 3.18pm Kempton
12.25pm Kempton (limited evidence to go on): Moutarde?,
1pm Kempton (very limited evidence to go on): Graham?. Jorebel?, Fingle Bridge (prom)
1.35pm Kempton: Saint Segal?, Sir Pyscho (prom), Hubrisko, Bhaloo (prom), Salamanca Bay, Keep Running
2.10pm Kempton: Remastered (prom), Annsam, Kyntara, Hunter Legend
2.42pm Kempton: Pic D’Orhy, Unexpected Party
3.18pm Kempton: Stolen Silver (prom), Dargiannini, West To The Bridge?, Knight Of Allen, Il Va De Soi, Firestream, Good Luck Charm (prom)
3.55pm Kempton: Navajo Indy, Monviel (prom), Court In The Act, Hypotenus, Latin Verse?, Jour D’Evasion, Bucephalus, Soigneux Bell (prom)
*************************************************
I noted in this section three weeks ago that Harry Derham had been exceptionally quiet, and soon afterwards we found out why – Storm Bert had washed away his gallop.
He effectively had to shut up shop, and install a new one, which he did thanks to a loan from his parents.
He appears firmly back on track now though, and he should be paying back Geoff and Julie soon enough.
He ended December with a monthly record of five from 15, and he is one from five in the New Year, with the other four all placed fourth at worst (one second, two thirds, and one fourth, in fact)
Expect him to kick on from here, and he has a whopping seven runners at Kempton on Saturday.
Ninth Loch has his first start for him in the 3.55pm, having won on his most recent start in France in November (claimed afterwards).
He attracted support at Wincanton last Saturday before the meeting was abandoned.
Excellent: Hobbs and White (4 from 9 in January, and 12 from 50 in December)
Good: Nicky Henderson, Anthony Charlton, Harry Derham, Adrian Keatley, James Owen, Olly Murphy, Robert Walford, Nick Gifford, Jane Williams, Evan Williams, Mel Rowley, Sam Thomas, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill. Henry Daly, Neil Mulholland
Fair: Paul Nicholls, Chris Gordon, Tom Symonds (needs a winner or two), Charlie Longsdon, Dan Skelton, Joe Tizzard, Warren Greatrex (borderline moderate), David Pipe, Christian Williams, Venetia Williams, Fergal O’Brien, Harry Fry (needs winners), Nigel Twiston-Davies
Moderate: Alex Hales, Gary and Josh Moore, Robbie Llewellyn, Anthony Honeyball, Seamus Mullins (though a 22-1 second recently)
Don’t know: Toby Lawes, Barry Brennan, Daniel Steele, Joe Tickle
This weeks Racing Room podcast features: Intro Chat & Weekend Racing Review (0-8mins) Rory Campbell’s Betting Syndicate: Take 3…
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