By Tony Calvin - 27 February 2025
GOING
All the going and stick readings have been updated for the three ITV courses on Saturday and they are below.
They have all firmed up a touch, with Newbury’s stick readings suggesting there has been a significant improvement there (it was -3.5 overnight).
I have included the Friday stick readings, so you can compare. See below.
BETTING
For all its’ competitiveness, it is probably not a big betting weekend – I haven’t played to any significant stakes today, though not always by choice, but I have put up four selections (as opposed to the usual one and race-by-race analysis), as I had backed them when the original copy went live – as the racing is clearly not of Grade 1 standard, and at the moment any moves will have been as the result of very little money.
And, for all its illiquid nature – some of the ITV races have not seen five-figures matched (one less than 4k), with the Morebattle the most traded at just shy of 25k as this goes live – I imagine the exchange is still driving the fixed-odds’ markets to a fair extent.
But I will note any significant movers here in the 10 ITV races.
They could be false dawns though, and heftier punts will show their hands this afternoon.
Or maybe in the next hour or so. The markets are very changeable due to their lack of depth.
1.10pm Kelso: Bollingerandkrug was 10s on Thursday, and 9s in four places on Friday morning, and he is into [13/2].
Helnwein has been cut into [13/8] and Real Stone weak as a result and [5/2] in places.
1.45pm Kelso: Iroko is currently very weak at [11/4], and the two for money here – and there has been precious little money traded on the exchange so far – are Grey Dawning, now a general [4/7] chance having been [8/11] in a place on Friday morning, and El Elefante has been trimmed into 7s from 10s.
Actually, Grey Dawning is [8/13] with two books.
Very early days though, and Iroko has now been 100pc confirmed for this.
UPDATE 9.20am: All change as Grey Dawning is now heading towards evens at [17/20], Iroko’s [9/4] is coming under pressure and main mover El Elefante ranges from [7/2] from [9/2], with 5s in a place.
More twists and turns to come, no doubt.
2.20pm Kelso: Not much to report here.
2.55pm Kelso: Chart Topper was as big as 5s on Thursday, 4s on Friday, and is now 3s. But you suspect this market is only just getting warmed up.
3.30pm Kelso: The big betting race of the day but the market has been pretty static, with the exception of Tellherthename and Wilful for the O’Neills, a stable that is going through a very lean spell, which obviously does not concern their backers.
Tellherthename opened up at 6s and [11/2] on Thursday, and was still the latter price in a place on Friday morning, but he is now a general [7/2] chance and 4s in places.
Wilful was 25s and 20s on Thursday, 12s early yesterday before steadily shortening throughout the day, and he is now best at [15/2].
1.20pm Newbury: Nothing much to report here
3.45pm Newbury: Nothing much going on here either, with Iroko still in the market.
Tedley was 40s, 33s and 28s yesterday morning and now only ranges from 12s to 16s, but he is available at [25.0] on Betfair as this goes live, though there is only £24 in the three visible back boxes. He looks like he will drift back out, for all it is a win-only price in a market where five places are on offer for each-way punters.
So chalk and cheese, to a degree.
We now have two NRs (Iroko and Midnight River), taking the field to 14, so check with your bookmakers about any changed each-way terms.
2.05pm Doncaster: The only significant feature of this market is the weakness in Dameofthecotswolds, out to [11/2] from [7/2].
2.40pm Doncaster: Rare Edition is into [7/2], though I imagine that will drift back out. He opened up at 7s in a place on Thursday, and was [9/2] yesterday morning.
3.15pm Doncaster: Twig was 14s on Thursday morning, 10s on Friday morning, and is now best at 7s and as low as 5s (the lowest price is with the firm betting to five places, so you pay handsomely for that gesture).
The Kniphand has been another mover, from an early 14s and 12s into 8s.
Anyway, yesterday’s race-by-race analysis in below.
I noted that Bollingerandkrug looked plenty big enough at 12s for this race in my ante-post column on Tuesday and, having lost two horses at the overnight stage, including the dangerous Rare Edition, that very much remains the case at a general [9/1] (the 10s in a place was taken on Thursday).
The [7/4] joint market-leaders Helnwein and Real Stone obviously have to be respected but they are priced accordingly and are hardly bombproof, while the betting seems to still be strangely ignoring Bollingerandkrug.
Incidentally, I was decs-tracking all of the 10 ITV races on Thursday morning and Lucinda Russell confirmed him first, and only later added the shorter-priced Netywell to the equation.
So maybe, or rather hopefully, Bollingerandkrug is the stable number one here.
That would be logical in my eyes as the course specialist (six wins here) is down to a mark of just 112, having been dropped 13lb in six starts since scoring here in November 2023, and the likely good to soft ground would appear ideal.
Now, there are negatives.
There always are when you bet away from the top of the market.
We haven’t seen the 10yo since he ran here in November (a decent enough third in the end, after looking a touch reluctant – not ideal, admittedly), which more than hints at a problem, but, against that, two of his more recent successes here came after breaks of 133 and 171 days, so he clearly can go well when fresh.
If he is fit and well, and they send him to the front here – and there isn’t a great deal of other pace in the race – then he could get all of these at it.
The 9s, available in four places (so general was pushing it), simply looks too big.
I used to be a big fan of these veterans’ chases but they haven’t really gripped me this season.
They have generally struggled for numbers, and this race has been reduced to the dead-eight at the overnight stage.
And I’ll be interested to see how the ground rides at Newbury today (on Friday).
They have had a lot of rain there, and the going stick readings are incredibly low – Friday’s hurdle reading is 2.8 ffs! – while a dry, sunny 48 hours (and raced-on ground) could make his very had work indeed for the oldies come the weekend.
If you wanted the most token of selections, Cloudy Glen, a former Hennessy winner, could be interesting here off a mark of 140 and with cheekpieces fitted – he is 14s in a place – but I won’t be betting.
[8/11] Grey Dawning v [13/8] Iroko, with the former having 7lb in hand at these weights on the official figures.
And, thankfully, this is Iroko’s first preference over Newbury.
Both of these horses ran at the Betfair Chase meeting at Haydock on November 23 and, if they reproduced those performances here, Grey Dawning probably should be more like a 3s-on poke.
Granted, this race is an Aintree stepping-stone for both, but Grey Dawning’s 2 length second to the 165-rated Royale Pagaille in the Grade 1 – a race in which he finished legless after trading at trading at 1.06 in running for good money – is far superior to Iroko’s ½-length second to the 144-rated Trelawne.
There is no doubt that there is something of the night about Iroko after his fourth at Ascot last time and he is clearly capable of better, and perhaps a lot better, but this is Grey Dawning’s to lose on the evidence to date.
But I should say [8/13] is his general price, not that stand-alone [8/11], so we can’t be tipping that.
This may be a touch harsh on World Of Fortunes and Dameofthecotswolds, [7/4] and [7/2] respectively – the latter has her stamina to prove here – but this is a distinctly average mares’ Listed novices’ hurdle.
I suppose we could well have improvers in here against the form pair, but they are going to have take a big leap forward – and on the clock, too – so good luck if you are playing.
I suppose the form pair don’t set a scary standard, though, and some of these do have the unexposed profile of possible progressers.
Ace Of Spades was a tempting [7/2] on Tuesday, and he arguably made even more appeal at [5/2] after the race has lost dangerous rivals such as Eaton Anne, Kamsinas and Patriotik (the race has cut up from 19 to 10 at the overnight stage).
Some agreed, as he was 2s across the board by Thursday evening, bar [9/4] in a place.
Sure, you can make decent each way cases for [15/2] poke Bold Light, back in trip, and 16s chance Fingal’s Hill, coming nicely down the handicap, but this could be Ace Of Spades’ to lose, for all [7/2] second favourite Mr Bramley is a dangerous opponent to judge from the betting.
He beat a couple of fair sorts at Cheltenham in November and then he came here and won decisively (in the end, anyway) under a penalty in an extended 2m6f+ novices’ hurdle the following month.
He was an [8/15] favourite there, so you may argue that he only did what was expected of him – and the BHA handicapper agreed, as he left his mark alone – especially as it was certainly more workmanlike, than wow.
The time was good though, and you strongly suspect a mark of 123 underestimates this lightly-raced 6yo.
But the general 2s is probably his price now, and easy to resist.
However, as I said, the each-way cases for Bold Light and Fingal’s Hill are there to make, and I think the latter in particular may have been dismissed a touch too hastily.
His stable clearly don’t have many runners but Peter Atkinson had a winner at Musselburgh in December – for the same owner (presumably his wife or a relation) and under the same jockey – and Fingal’s Hill has shaped pretty well under prominent rides over further recently, weakening late on.
Stepped down in trip, and down to a mark of 117 – some 6lb lower than when winning at Carlisle in November 2023 – he probably makes as much betting appeal as the favourite, to be honest, at the prices.
In fact, more so.
Fingal’s Hill was beaten 9 lengths by Mr Bramley at Wetherby in November and is now 14lb better off, and the key to his winning chance is definitely the step down in trip, as he hasn’t got home over 3m1f+ and 2m6f+ on his last two starts.
With 16s available in a place, and 14s on offer in eight (including with AKBets), I like the each-way option, and I can see him starting in single figures.
Bold Light is also a fair win and place alternative at [15/2].
This is another Donny race that didn’t grab me.
The first-time headgear are obvious avenues into Rare Edition and Homme Public (the former has also had a wind op) but I am not inclined to force a bet here.
You could make a cogent case for them all but they each have their negatives.
One of the ante-post favourites (4s chance Good And Clever) is a no-show but this 2m2f Grade 2 novices’ hurdle has stood up very well at the overnight stage, and this is a pretty closely-knit contest on ratings, with all 10 runners boasting winning form.
It is not my type of race, to be honest, but there is a lot to like about Castle Carrock, though he is now just [9/2].
He was 8s on Tuesday, and the 6s about him went early on Thursday, with the [11/2] and 5s following, but you can probably see why.
In fact, Alan King was in two minds whether to run him earlier in the week, indicating he would have rather kept him to 2m, but if he can win over 2m in soft ground at Sandown then this should hold few fears.
Perhaps he didn’t get the credit he deserves for beating the [2/9] favourite Diva Luna in a fair time at Sandown, but this is a race I can leave alone at the current prices.
It could well be full of fellow improvers.
Vanderpoel is narrowly winning favouritsm at this very early stage at [10/3], but the direction of travel suggests Willie Mullins’ Chart Topper, now [7/2], may go off as the jolly, though who knows these days.
He was briefly available at 5s and [9/2] early on Thursday, and the 4s has been taken, too.
I had a little bit on Undersupervision earlier in the week, and I have to press up, win-only, now he has drifted to 20s in nine places, including AKBets (he ranged from 12s to 16s on Tuesday).
Who said I can’t move markets?
And nothing has changed in my argument for him in the ante-post piece, in that he comes to fairly weighted off 127 now on a track where he has some excellent previous on ground that will suit.
He won this race in 2022 (off a 5lb higher mark), he was beaten a neck it in 2023 (again off a 5lb higher mark) and I wouldn’t hold his pulled-up effort in this contest last year against him as that was a very odd race – only two finished – on ground Timeform described as heavy.
He obviously hasn’t been running too well, but at least he finished last time (after three pulled-up performances) and the handicapper has given him every chance to bounce back here.
The betting has him as the outsider of the Nigel Twiston-Davies trio here but that doesn’t deter me at all, though I have no idea if the 5lb claimer James Turner is good or bad – or indeed ugly.
His stats are okay, so I am not getting too hung up on him and Undersupervision went well enough for a long way in his first-time visor (retained here) at Ludlow last time, for which he was dropped 3lb.
All his best form is going left-handed, at the likes of Doncaster and Cheltenham, so switching direction is a big plus.
King Turgeon is a non-runner (as at 1.47pm with a pricked foot), so keep an eye out for any further withdrawals that could affect each-way terms.
Nothing much has changed since I previewed this race earlier in the week.
In fact, very little has changed as regards the make-up of the race, as only Jurancon and Homme Public (running elsewhere on Saturday – so you hopefully were not betting those ante-post) were not confirmed, and three were balloted out.
They were Tour Ovalie, Moon Chime and Ravenscraig Castle, so make sure you get your money back on those three.
I had a slight lean-up towards Florida Dreams at 12s Cormier at 40s earlier in the week, but the big problem there is Vischio and Tellherthename have both confirmed too, and I rate their chances.
Anyway, on to those in a minute, here is what I wrote on Tuesday.
It holds true.
“Florida Dreams has badly disappointed me on his last two starts, even allowing for him making a bad mistake when in contention 2 out at Musselburgh last time, but that hasn’t stopped someone hoovering up all the 16s and 14s about him on Monday.
“Looking back at the Musselburgh run a couple of times again this morning, maybe he was coming with a potential winning run there – watching it live, I thought he was beaten at the time, but the angle at that track can be deceptive and he definitely has a big run in him off 125 if putting it altogether.
“Drying ground will be in his favour, and I thought he shaped exceptionally well when fifth in the Greatwood Hurdle off a 2lb higher mark three starts ago.
“On the face of it, the 2022 winner of this race, Cormier, ran poorly on his return after a lengthy absence at Wetherby last time, but I thought he didn’t shape that badly in the circumstances, especially as that was over an extended 2m3f in the soft, the furthest he has ever gone (granted he ran over 2m2f+ on the Flat at Chester).
“If this has been the plan again – and he also ran in this race in 2023, when disappointing – then maybe he can outrun the general odds of [40/1] off a mark of just 124.
“He has obviously had his recent problems (that Wetherby run on Feb 1 was his since July 2023, and I couldn’t find out what caused the absence) but he won this race off 134 in 2022, and then went on to finish seventh off 139 in the County Hurdle.
“And I reckon the likely mixture of good and good to soft ground on the day will be fine for him.
“The handicapper has certainly played ball as he has cascaded down the handicap hurdle ladder, and it is not as if he is an old man at nine years old.
“Trainer Brian Ellison is undeniably in poor form, but the owners are shrewd cookies (they had the 2018 Greatwood Hurdle winner Nietzsche with the stable) and this could well have been a specific plan.
“Even if it hasn’t, then the 40s is probably still too big, even if there is every chance this horse goes off at three-figures on the machine on the day, as there is obviously a lot of guesswork involved.”
Florida Dreams is still 12s and Cormier has been trimmed into 33s, and we are now getting a general five places (I’ll look to back the former now he has drifted to 14s with extra places on Saturday morning)
However, you have to greatly fear Vischio (7/2] and perhaps even the lesser-spotted Tellherthename – [11/2] in a place but basically a [9/2] shot – more so now he has finally turned up, on drying ground and off a mark of 137.
The 6s in a place about the latter on Thursday was quickly taken, and that [11/2] will surely come under pressure soon (mind you, it has been lingering for a while in the usual place).
The niggling doubt with him is it just the ground that has kept him off for so long? I half-recall reading something about a bruised foot, but I couldn’t find a story to back that up.
And the stable form is decidedly moderate going into Saturday.
You have to tip as you bet, so I’ll probably look to back Cormier win-only at much bigger prices on the exchange near the off, and not now (there is some 40s out there again now, though), as the blow-out potential is so huge and he strikes as the sort to go walkies on the exchange.
And that is not something that puts me off.
He wears first-time cheekpieces and it was good to see Brian Ellison has a fair enough record with this angle (as in not far off his general strike rate).
Four of the horse’s eight wins have come in a hood, so perhaps this new headgear can spark him up.
There is some 50s knocking about now (as of 4.29pm on Friday).
A strong field of 16 for this Greatwood, but Iroko will probably go to Kelso instead and there will be a Rule 4 (probably 15p).
And watch out for changing each-way terms, too.
Some bookies may reduce their extra place (s) as a result, if these goes from 16 to 15 runners.
I thought this was an incredibly difficult puzzle to be truthful, so I initially thought I wouldn’t take up too much of your time.
I made the case (of sorts) for Newbury specialist Paint The Dream , a 15—length winner of this race in 2022, even if he has been running like a drain.
On the face of it, at least. And the handicapper has given him every chance, and then some. He was 33s on Tuesday and is now 18s.
However, when the prices re-appeared on Thursday morning, the 40s about Tedley struck me as rather generous, even if the trip, in the ground, could be an issue.
In fact, he was also in the 2m handicap chase at Donny, but connections have decided to roll the dice here.
He didn’t actually run badly over 2m against L’Eau du Sud and Rubaud in the Kingmaker over the minimum trip at Warwick last time but he had previously stuck to his task well enough over 2m5f at Ascot (off a 2lb higher mark than this) and he does have form in the mud, too.
The combination of 2m4f on deep ground may not be ideal here – though maybe I am getting too worried by the trip – but that is why we are getting 40s.
That is available in two places (admittedly one outfit), which I am surprised has lasted 24 hours, but the general 33s and 28s would do me.
And, to add to the positives, he also ran a cracker here over 2m in November. He is ridden by a 5lb claimer with an 18 per cent strike rate this season, so that is fine by me.
The 40s won’t last long but, as I said, 33s and 28s, is fine.
Prince Quali was the other mover from 40s (as well as 33s, 28s, 25s and 20s) on Thursday and he is now best at 18s.
He wears cheekpieces for the first time and the in-form Robert Walford is a very decent 5-24 since 2017 in this area.
Good luck today.
Bollingerandkrug at [9/1] win-only in 1.10pm at Kelso. Available in four places.
Fingal’s Hill at [14/1] each way in 2.20pm at Kelso. Available in eight places, including AKBets (16 is available in one spot, so obviously take that if you can)
Undersupervision at [20/1] win-only in 3.15pm at Doncaster. Available in nine places, including AKBets
Tedley at [40/1] each way, five places, in 3.45pm at Newbury. Available in two places (33s and 28s would be fine)
NB: I’ll be backing Cormier and Florida Dreams on Saturday, too. Small-stakes day.
Going: Good to soft
Fresh ground has been saved on the hurdle course all season for this meeting. Chase fences have been moved 3yds back inside to allow for fresh ground. Entire course vertidrained.
Low sun could result in obstacle omission at this fixture
Going stick: 5.9 (Saturday 7am) – was 5.8 on Friday
Weather: Dry
Saturday morning course update: “Partly Cloudy. Dry overnight. RACEDAY: 9c overcast with sunny spells but dry. Light to moderate winds from SW”
Going – Chase: Good, good to soft in places: Hurdle: Good to soft, good in places
Going stick – Chase: 6.1; Hurdle: 5.8 (Saturday 7.30am) – they were 5.6 and 5.5 respectively on Friday
Weather: Dry
Saturday morning course update: “2.4mm earlier in week. Dry and bright since Wednesday Grass frosts last two nights with temps dipping to -3.1C early this morning but already on the rise and reaching 10C by midday. Small amount of dry-back expected.”
Rails: Hotel Bend Split Chase – innermost line – no additional distances Hurdle – 10 yds off inner on hotel bend. Innermost line for remainder of circuit, fresh take offs and landings.
Going – Chase: Soft, good to soft in places: Hurdle: Soft
Going stick – Chase: 3.8; Hurdle 3.5 (as at 8am Saturday) – they were 3.1 and 2.8 respectively on Friday morning
Weather: Dry
Saturday morning course update: “Hard frost this morning (low -3.5C), some crispy areas, no concerns given current sunshine & forecast. Forecast: Currently -1.8C. Sunny, patchy cloud at time with highs of 9C. Additional Going & Live Weather Data: newburyracecourse.co.uk/going/”
Samuel Drinkwater cheekpieces – Fontana Ellissi, 2.20pm Kelso; 1-13 (since 2017)
Brian Ellison cheekpieces – Cormier, 3.30pm Kelso; 10-132 (2016)
Patrick Neville cheekpieces – Here Comes Georgie, 3.30pm Kelso; 0-8 (2016)
Venetia Williams cheekpieces – Cloudy Glen, 1.20pm Newbury; 4-39 (2017)
Robert Walford cheekpieces – Prince Quali, 3.45pm Newbury; 5-24 (2017)
Greenall and Guerriero blinkers – Homme Public, 2.40pm Doncaster; 2-12 (2022)
Charlie Longsdon cheekpieces – Rare Edition, 2.40pm Doncaster; 6-50 (2016)
Harry Fry cheekpieces – Hymac, 3.15pm Doncaster; 5-27 (2017)
Gary Hanmer cheekpieces – Monte Igueldo, 3.15pm Doncaster; 1-13 (2017)
3.30pm Kelso: Tour Ovalie, Moon Chime, Ravenscraig Castle
1.10pm Kelso: Kidman (2lb)
1.20pm Newbury: Amateur (1lb)
2.40pm Doncaster: Gabriel’s Getaway (2lb)
1.10pm Kelso: Real Stone?, Bollingerandkrug?,
1.20pm Newbury: Sam Brown, Good Boy Bobby, Gustavian, Amateur?
1.45pm Kelso: El Elefante, Barrons Land
2.05pm Doncaster: Carrig Kate (prom), Damofthecotswolds (prom), Golden Point (prom),
2.20pm Kelso: Bold Light (prom), Ace Of Spades, Inox Allen?, Young Jack?, Fingal’s Hill (prom)
2.40pm Doncaster : Calico, Editeur Du Gite, Rare Edition (prom)
2.55pm Kelso: Dedicated Hero (prom), Roadlesstravelled, Vanderpoel, Listentoyourheart (prom)
3.15pm Doncaster: Twig, Fidelio Vallis, Weveallbeencaught, Hymac, Erne River (prom), Moroder (can race prominently), Lord Baddesley, The Kniphand (prom)
3.30pm Kelso: Tellherthename, Alnilam, Milldam, Aucunrisque (prom), Slugger, Gentleman Bill (prom), Wilful, N’Golo,
3.45pm Newbury: Kandoo Kid (prom), Le Milos?, Saint Segal, Vicenzo, Billytherealbigred, Spyglass Hill (prom), Paint The Dream can be ridden prominently
Excellent: Ben Pauling, Sam Thomas, Charlie Longsdon
Good: Harry Derham, Olly Murphy, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Willie Mullins, Emma Lavelle, Joe Tizzard, Robert Walford (very good), D J Jeffreys (small sample, but one 8-1 winner from four runners), Harry Fry (few runners still), Lucy Wadham (13-2 winner on Friday), Ann Hamilton (small sample, but one 7-1 winner from four runners), Pauline Robson (one winners from three runners, so dubiously good, I guess), Ewan Whillans, Nicky Richards (very good), Iain Jardine, Jane Williams (13-2 winner on Friday)
Fair : Anthony Honeyball, Venetia Williams (good in strike rate terms), Fergal O’Brien (odds-on winner on Friday), Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell, Greenall and Guerriero, Dan Skelton, Gary and Josh Moore (odds-on winner on Friday), Gary Hanmer, Nick Kent (no winners), Alan King, Barry Brennan (few runners, no winners), Jedd O’Keeffe (few runners, no winners), Nick Alexander, Rebecca Menzies (winner on Thursday), Tony Martin (small sample but a winner in there), Neil Mulholland (winner on Thursday), Patrick Neville, Killahena and McPherson, Jamie Snowden (odds-on winner in a three-runner race on Friday), Toby Lawes (no winners)
Moderate: Peter Niven. Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Seamus Mullins, Henry Daly (couple of seconds), Brian Ellison, David Pipe, Chris Gordon, Chris Grant
Don’t know: David Brace, John and Rhys Flint, Peter Atkinson, Sandy Thomson (one 9-1 short-head second from five recent runners), Emmet Mullins (do we ever know…?), Liam Kenny, Richard Hobson, Simon Waugh, Laura Horsfall (probably modest but small sample), Samuel Drinkwater (9-2 winner on Friday, though)
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