By Tony Calvin - 3 July 2025
The Big’ Un has nearly halved in size.
We had 11 in the Coral-Eclipse (note to all sponsors – hyphenise the title with your name in it, so journalists are obliged to namecheck you in print) at the five-day stage and we are now down to just six, having lost Almaqam, Anmaat, White Birch, Expanded and Stanhope Gardens at 10am on Thursday morning.
I appreciate that none of those that have given it a swerve were in the top four in the ante-post market but it still takes a little shine off the race from a betting point of view.
In fact, a fair bit.
I come at things a little differently from the purists but, then again, purists don’t fund the sport; punters (and owners) do, so no each-way 1,2,3 betting is an undoubted betting blow.
Good race, mind you.
In fact, Ruling Court being confirmed was something of a surprise (his last traded price, admittedly in a very illiquid exchange ante-post market, was [46.0]).
The thing that immediately strikes you about this race is that there is no guaranteed front-runner.
I thought Aidan O’Brien stuck in Expanded at the very last minute on Monday as a pacemaker but, as it is, his Delacroix (we may have to wait until 1pm to see who Ryan Moore rides – as long as the BHA allow this, it is a three-hour window open to all connections – he rides Delacroix) is perhaps the most likely forward-goer, along with maybe Hotazhell.
But the pace map is a murky picture, and presents an opportunity for one jockey/set of connections.
All the going and watering details etc are below.
Anyway, more of that at a later point.
Oh, and apologies, Julia Augusta is a no-show in the 2.25pm at Sandown.
I have never liked that stable….
Sandown could get some light showers from 9am, but nothing major, maybe 3mm or so.
I can’t see much of a betting angle in here, and Sandown’s 5f sprints, with all the trouble in running they bring with them, are always easily passed over.
Especially when I agree that She’s Quality and Kerdos, priced up at [4/1] and [3/1] respectively, are the two most likely winners.
West Acre has drifted to 12s on Betfair (obviously to little money) and that looks okay, but I won’t be having a bet.
It’s never a bad thing not to be behind after the first race….
Haydock appear to have got 4mm on Friday evening – both clerks, a Father (Sandown) and Son (Haydock) combo no less, have yet to update on Saturday morning – and some light showers may be about this morning, too.
Haydock is now good. The round course actually has good to soft in places.
As he tends to do with horses looking to secure a handicap mark on their third starts (think Merchant at Wolverhampton etc), William Haggas went to a lowly track with Valiancy last time and he predictably got the job done at odds of [1/7] at Hamilton.
Actually, that form is okay (the runner-up was only beaten a neck off a mark of 73 next time) and you have to think the Haggas horse is potentially well handicapped here off 80.
His earlier second here to Pole Star confirms the impression that the assessor could have been very lenient here, and the [11/4] about him is coming under pressure (all the 4s downwards has been taken from Thursday).
It really isn’t hard to see him winning this, a race that Haggas targets (won three of the last five runnings).
But I like Deep Water Bay a touch better at the general 9s (the 10s was taken on Friday).
He bumped into an improver on his only turf start to date at Nottingham last month (and he was rallying close home when squeezed up on the rail by the winner) but made no mistake with an easy win at Chelmsford on Tuesday.
He races under a 6lb penalty but his trainer got lucky when the weights went up 3lb overnight, so he has crept into the handicap.
I can never tell how much a Prescott handicapper has under the bonnet, especially when Luke Morris is doing the steering, but he was surely value for more than the 2 lengths he beat the in-form Belgravian at Chelmsford.
I wouldn’t be a fan of how the trainer campaigns his horses over inadequate trips at two, and for them to sprout wings when upped up 4f or so, but, effectively racing off 73 here, this son of New Bay could have plenty more to give in what looks a very winnable 100k pot.
He is a half-brother to the mare’s smart 2024 mare Miss Cynthia (also trained by Prezza), and I would expect him to rate a fair bit higher than 73.
The 9s looks big, for all this is a quick turnaround, obviously (he is also in on Monday and Tuesday, so the trainer clearly thinks he is a hardy soul).
You have to fear Valiancy, though.
The Sandown round course is now good to firm, firm in places.
I hope we don’t get NRs as that is what we should be racing on in summer.
And people talking about “safe” ground (including trainers, jockeys and journalists, who should know better) doesn’t help.
You are taking a fair bit on trust if backing Treasure Time at [10/3] for this on his first start since September, and Greek Order is now conservatively enough priced at [11/4] after his excellent Hunt Cup fourth off a 2lb lower mark.
Treasure Time is [5.3] on Betfair as I hit publish, though.
My appetite for this race rather waned after Julia Augusta wasn’t confirmed for this handicap – I thought she must have been under a cloud to not be going for a 125k handicap, but it seems connections would rather run her in a harder 45k Listed race at Pontefract next Tuesday (black-type hunting with a 6yo, I know, but even so) – as nothing really leapt out at me as an adequate replacement at the prices.
Classic, with three excellent course and distance runs to his name, looks a solid each-way proposition at [13/2] – the [15/2] and 7s went on Friday – but he is an exposed 5yo now and winning may just be beyond him.
Unsurprisingly, the firm that offer five places are making you pay for it by offering him at just [9/2].
It really is time this was pulled up on TV.
Classic could be the safest place-only conveyance then, even if stall two could present a world of pain if he is slowly away again.
I’ll sit and sulk on the ante-post no-show.
Apologies again, and it is important to say sorry when you do your money in cold blood, and you may have done yours, too.
The course will be very disappointed by a turn-out of just four this 125k Lancashire Oaks – the fourth takes home £6,700 – and they will be mortified if Estrange, top at [2/5] in a place, is pulled out because of the ground.
But that 3.4mm on watered ground will help.
She is rightly a prohibitive odds-on poke after looking a worldie when winning here last time but this is probably going to be as quick as she ever wants it, for all more showers are due.
The early 4s about Scenic (7s ante-post) was taken early on Thursday and she is the obvious beneficiary if the favourite doesn’t run/run to form.
We are now down to seven runners with Bermuda Longtail and Serving With Style coming out.
I was a touch surprised that Blue Bolt is as short as she is, as I thought all nine had a winning chance in this.
Of sorts.
Don’t get me wrong, the [7/4] favourite was very impressive at Newbury and holds a Group 1 entry down the line, but at this stage she is more about potential.
As are all of these nine winners.
I don’t think you can be overly-bullish about any of these then, but I managed to get a little bit on Suite Francaise at 18s and 14s each way on Friday and I am happy with that.
I know people say what use is that information to me, but I am just being straight with you.
I still think the 12s still knocking about is okay.
Charlie Johnston has been in great form a while now and I thought his filly was devastatingly impressive at Haydock last time. On good to firm ground, too.
Okay, the second and third have been beaten since (not running badly though) but this well-connected Study Of Man filly won by a wide margin and she is worth chancing at double- figures to confirm that impression against a better type of opposition here.
It’s a small-stakes play though, as she could improve by 10lb here and still finish fourth or fifth.
It’s a guess-up type of race, if truth be told. But she remains the best bet in the race at 12s for me.
Down to 14 runners with Humble Spark and My Dream World out.
This looks another very winnable prize for a massive 150k pot.
The Friday night/Saturday morning rain could be important here for Stressfree and Night Breeze (for differing reasons).
I quite liked Night Breeze and I thought he was a player if he didn’t rain too much
He was hugely impressive in winning an admittedly very slowly-run handicap on quick ground at Ascot two starts ago, and maybe the torrential rain did for him when he went from travelling well to finding zilch at Epsom last time.
It could be that a strongly-run 1m4f will find him out, but hopefully Morris will ride him accordingly, sitting handy enough but not forcing the issue until late on.
Then he can raise his cosh (not to be confused with a Pro Cush) and get to work, Morris-stylee.
There was a bit of money for him on Friday – he is only best at 12s now but he must drift – but he currently trades at 28-1+ on Betfair. For chocolate buttons, but I have had a small win-only bet on him.
He would have liked no rain though but that price is adequate compensation perhaps.
Once again, I respect the market leaders Sir Lowrys Pass and Plage De Havre, but I have had a minimal saver on Stressfree at 10s, as I am willing to forgive him that Royal Ascot run last time. And he had earlier been in great nick, including here.
I haven’t got a win-only betting opinion now that the each-way 1,2,3 option has disappeared, due to the fact that Ombudsman casts a big form shadow over this race after that stunning 2-length defeat of Anmaat in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and he is highly likely to win if reproducing that effort here.
The main hope his rivals have is that he would certainly have had a harder race than it appeared at Ascot – you don’t throw in 128-rated performances, in a time like his, without taking a lot out of yourself – and he may recoil enough here for the others to get involved.
This is entirely possible.
And I suppose that Ascot race did set up well for the closers.
However, he has 7lb in hand of Sosie and Ruling Court on official figures, and both of those have questions to answer here, too.
Sosie has never raced on anything quicker than good ground according to Timeform, though they say it was good when he won the Ganay in April and maybe he will improve for the faster ground.
And Guineas winner Ruling Court has to bounce back from a bitterly disappointing third in the St James’s Palace Stakes, a race in which he was never travelling from the outset.
That didn’t stop the 14s about him being taken on Thursday morning though, and he is now just 9s.
Given the 3yos get 10lb, and have won the last four renewals of this (O’Brien responsible for three of the winners), the Classic generation obviously have to be respected, for all they have a fair bit to find with the favourite.
Ruling Court, the best of them on paper, has already been mentioned but Camille Pissarro has come a long way in a short space of time since being beaten in a Listed race in late March, winning the French Derby last time, but Ryan Moore stays on board Delacroix, sent off the 2s favourite when only ninth in the Derby.
This could be more the latter’s trip (and he has been trimmed into 4s) but Camille Pissarro is trading at [17/2] in a place and that is the horse that appeals most of that trio.
Hotazhell rounds off the field and he was my pick of the prices at 33s in a fair few places on Friday morning, as he is the same horse as the O’Brien pair on ratings (he beat Delacroix by a nose in the Futurity at two) and is four and five times the price.
He ran perfectly well on his return when third in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and maybe Shane Foley could give it a go on him from the front.
With his stamina a question mark, that way he can at least dictate his own fate if he does.
He could prove the pick of the 3yos, though the I suspect older mob may be a different proposition altogether.
The 33s all went on Friday and so did the 28s around 6am this morning (6.10am in fact), but he is 11s in a place without the favourite and 8s without Ombudsman and Sosie – you’ll have to trawl from site to site to find the firm in question, as I can hardly name another bookmaker here (this is hardly an AK advert but there are limits) – and that could be the best betting avenue into what is essentially a watch-contest.
Going – Round: Good to firm, firm in places; Sprint: Good to firm, good in places
Going stick – Round: 7.6; Straight: 7.0 (Saturday 8am)
Saturday morning course update: Cooler and cloudier day Saturday, 22 degrees, with negligible rain expected.
1.4mm rain in a shower at midday.
Watering history: 5mm applied to both courses Monday, and 3mm applied Tuesday to Round Course. Selective watering on various quicker parts of Round Course Thursday – 2.5/3mm. All ground being raced over tomorrow will be watered overnight except Home Bend – 4mm to Home straight, 4mm to Back straight, 2.5mm to Sprint Course.
Weather forecast: 2.7mm from 9am today, maybe less (Saturday)
Rails: Sprint Course rail 2 yards in from Far Side. Round Course rail on Innermost configuration.
Stalls: Sprint Course – Far Side Remainder – Inside
Going – Good (Round course is good, good to soft in places)
Going stick: 6.7, Saturday 7am
Inside: 6.2, Centre 6.7, Outside 6.8.
Soil moisture average: 41%
Saturday morning course update: 4mm Friday night largely after racing until 11.00pm. Clear overnight. Saturday mostly cloudy, sunny spells later. Live weather & going: https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/haydock/owners-and-trainers/the-going/
Watering (as of Thursday): 3mm east bend. Selectively inner straight to hold the quickest section, replacing ET lost yesterday. No further plans.
Watering was inner course earlier in week, not outer course.
Weather forecast: light showers, if anything, niw
Rails: All races will run on the outer track, with a drop in at the entry to the home straight.
Stalls: 5f, 6f & 1m4f: Centre 7f & 1m6f: Inside
No qualifiers (for the first time I can think of)
1.50pm Sandown: She’s Quality (drawn 4), Balmoral Lady (11), Queen All Star (1), Change Sings (7)
2.05pm Haydock : Ammes (1), Deep Water Bay (7), Prince Of The Seas (10), Last Galileo (8)
2.25pm Sandown : Mirsky (10), Hi Royal (3)
2.40pm Haydock : Love Talk (1), Nuit (3)
3pm Sandown : Blue Bolt (3), Victory Queen (8)
3.15pm Haydock: Minstrel Knight (13), Sol Cayo (1), Box To Box (16), Midnight Lion (5), Enemy (11)
3.35pm Sandown : Delacroix? (3), Hotazhell (prom; 6)
Excellent: Jack Channon
Good: Jonathan Portman, Andrew Balding (very good), Charlie Johnston, David Menuisier, Harry Eustace,, Karl Burke, George Scott, Charlie Appleby, Aidan O’Brien (nearer fair for him), Ralph Beckett, Richard Hannon (good for him), George Boughey
Fair: James Owen, Jim Boyle, Jessie Harrington (16-1 winner on Friday), Jim Goldie (probably moderate but recent uplift of sorts). John Ryan, Mick Appleby, Jamie Osborne, Andre Fabre, Grant Tuer, Iain Jardine, Sir Mark Prescott, Ed Bethell (borderline good), Hugo Palmer, Simon and Ed Crisford, John and Thady Gosden (quiet spell for him), Ed Walker, Clive Cox, Kevin Ryan, William Haggas, Charles Hills, Eve Johnson Houghton (very welcome 7-2 and 9-1 winners on Thursday), Henry De Bromhead (11-1 and 7-1 winners on Thursday)
Moderate: Jack Davison (a lot of big-priced runners, so maybe should be don’t know), David O’Meara (2-1 winner on Friday), Michael Bell, Ian Williams (though a 17-2 winner on Thursday night will hopefully prompt an upturn in fortunes)
Don’t know: Dennis Coakley, Ben Brookhouse, Fion McSharry (Sol Cayo their only recent runner, which won and runs here)
1.25pm Newbury – 13/2 West Wind Blows too big here I’d say Newbury were relieved…
2.2opm York – A tough punting Mission to undertake Now, this is exactly the kind…
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