By Tony Calvin - 4 September 2025
I will re-state that the going at Haydock is predominantly good (see below in stats section).
The only reason why I do so is that someone got in touch with me on Friday to say two podcasts (okay, I’ll name them – Racing Post and Betfair) were recording on the basis of soft ground, which is/was plainly wrong.
I haven’t listened but that is very poor, if so (apparently it is accurate), as it has been mainly good there, pretty much all week.
Anyway, it is not my concern, but I said I’d mention it, and I have.
A tricky enough opener, though the early market has spoken for Prague, who now vies for favouritism with Make Me King around the 4s mark, and Fearnot at [11/2], the latter having been 11s on Thursday.
Ice Max has been the weak one, and he has drifted out to [13/2], and a current [8.8] on Betfair as this goes live at 7am.
He wasn’t able to get out of second gear there due to traffic problems at Goodwood last time (some feat in a six-runner race, but it happens more than you’d hope at all tracks) and he is the sexier of the pair, though he would clearly have preferred Haydock to have copped at least half of what was forecast on Monday (he handles good ground, though).
Suite Francaise is a horse I have a lot of time for, as I love her willing attitude, and she gets all the allowances here as the sole 3yo filly in the line-up.
I loved the way she ramped it up from the front when beating good horses here last time – she is also two from two at Haydock – and the third has since come out and won a Listed race in France.
She was 10s on Thursday, and is now 8s, which I think is probably still the best price in the race given her profile (we also have two unbeaten twice-raced runners in here, mind yoi), but there is plenty of other pace in here (though Balmacara ran poorly at Ascot on Friday, so presumably won’t run – is a NR as at 8.32am) and an uncontested lead looks unlikely and this is a step up in grade.
I have had a small bet on her.
Incidentally, Make Me King, from a small outfit in top form and now available at [9/2], is also in a Group 2 in Germany on Sunday, with Tom Marquand jocked up, according to the RP website.
But comments from the owners’ rep on Friday suggest Haydock is very much the plan.
As at 8.40am, there has been a move for Zeus Olympios. 16s on Friday, and [15/2] in a place first thing this morning, the unbeaten colt (stablemate of Ice Max) is now the [9/2] favourite.
Not really a betting heat with [8/15] Kalpana playing [5/2] Giavellotto, but it could be an informative heat for bigger challenges down the line, in the former’s case, the Arc, for which she is a somewhat surprisingly short 5s and 6s poke for a horse chinned in her last three starts.
An angle into this race could be the fact that Giavellotto comes here after a three-month absence, thereby opening up a potential opportunity to back something else without the favourite.
That said, Kalpana won’t be hard-fit here either and Giavellotto goes well when fresh and is two from two on the all-weather. So it could be a case of looking for something that isn’t there. It probably is.
Tasmania could the chief beneficiary if Marco Botti’s 6yo is overly-rusty, and maybe scoop the jackpot if both of the principals are seriously lacking in fitness.
Third in the French Oaks last season, Tasmania has run two solid efforts in Group 3 company this season, and she looked ready for a step back up to this trip after a strong-finishing third over 1m2f at the Curragh last time.
She is [6/1] without Kalpana, and [13/10] without the top two in the market. But it’s really not a betting heat, as I said earlier.
This race took a predictable turn at 8.26pm last night when He’s Waliim was pulled out (not eaten up), reducing the field to just seven runners.
It’s a good job that the firm which offered [2/1] about Publish early on Thursday are not on Oddschecker any more, or else they would have been accommodated even more quickly than they were.
He is now [11/10] – but only in one place – which is fair enough about this promising Solario no-show, if nowhere near enticing.
He is a Timeform big “P” horse along with impressive Newbury winner Bow Echo, the [15/8] second favourite. I’d probably marginally prefer George Boughey’s juvenile, as his Newbury win was quite striking and the runner-up won next time.
Any thoughts on the solid Midnight Tango at 12s and Bourbon Blues at 22s being each-way alternatives bit the dust last night then.
However, it is hard to see either of the top two not winning, as the betting tells you.
I appreciate [7/2] favourite Sky Safari has a fair old chance in this but I quickly whittled this down to three on Thursday and they were Dragon Icon, Local Hero, and Sir Paul Ramsey.
Combination tricast anyone?
Dragon Icon and Local Hero are down to highly exploitable marks of 84 and 86 respectively, and the key to those two turning falling handicap levels into successes could be first-time cheekpieces in the case of the former and a gelding operation with the latter.
Local Hero is well housed in one if they want to bounce him out from trap one and he is 5lb lower than when an excellent head second to Mount Athos over 7f here in March. He has been well found in the market now at [15/2] in a place.
I couldn’t work out why Sir Paul Ramsey was put in at 10s on Thursday. He is now [13/2] and that is more like it.
Unfortunately.
Nevertheless, he has a very progressive profile since winning at Hamilton in July – the only miss-step on his dance card came on heavy ground at Goodwood – and his close third at York came in a very strong handicap.
And he wasn’t given an optimal ride at Chester last time, shall we say, as Joe Fanning decided to drop this prominent racer in from stall two and the result was he could never get competitive, simply closing in to fourth without being able to land a blow.
He is effectively 2lb lower here (he was 2lb out of the handicap at Chester) and the obvious issue is his draw in nine could present his jockey (I am not sure who rides now) with traffic issues here once again.
But the juice has been squeezed out of the market for now.
I’ll cut to the chase here. I haven’t had a bet, and I am unlikely to.
I was most drawn to Ride The Thunder when I did my first draft as I can see the step up to 1m6f suiting – and the Roger Varian yard is in good nick at the moment – but he is another who has been trimmed in since yesterday and 9s (in just one one place) is pretty much his price now (he was 12s this time yesterday).
I suspect he is better than he was able to show last time though, and he looks very fairly handicapped.
Leadman and Tarkhan were fairly-priced at 10s and 16s respectively on Friday but they are now just [15/2] and 12s.
I see a theme developing here….
So Afentiko at 18s now looks marginally the better punting option.
Mind you, he has been cut from a general 20s, when he is currently [27.0] on Betfair.
He ran an extraordinary race from off the pace when a length third at Haydock in May, at one point looking likely to be tailed off before sprouting wings (he would have won in another 50 yards), and then he went from the front in the Britannia next time, showing up well for a long way before being beaten 5 ½ lengths (fourth on his side).
The Goodwood run last time was a write-off as he could never get competitive from the widest draw, but I expect him to be blasted out on the near rail from stall 18 and he could be weighted to play a big role here.
He is 3lb lower than Royal Ascot, and the recent rain is no hardship.
One firm are 18s a quarter the odds first five, and that is a fair bet if you can access, while I have had win-only bets at Leadman at [10.0] and Tarkhan at [20.0] on the exchange.
Small stuff on a very quiet punting day, though.
Those are the current prices as this goes live.
Just 15 runners now.
A falling handicap mark of 94 and first-time blinkers could finally be the keys to getting Align The Stars an overdue win.
Unlikely perhaps, but maybe not as outlandish as initial [25/1] quotes would have suggested.
However, the 25 was taken, as was the 22s, and then around 4pm on Friday all the 20s and 18s disappeared in an instant, and by 4.10pm he was 16s tops.
And now he is a general 12s, and just 14s in one place, which will be coming under pressure (in fact it has just gone).
I’m out, as the Dragons would say, at those odds but I’ll make the case for him in the hope that he drifts back out.
A progressive horse at three before ventures into Group 1 and 2 predictably found him out, he looked set for a decent campaign once again when third to Al Qareem in a Listed race at Nottingham on his return.
The wheels have come off since then, a couple of decent runs aside, and he has looked a decidedly awkward ride.
So the blinkers look well worth a shot (he ran okay in initial cheekpieces when seventh in the Ascot Stakes in the summer) and I’d like to see Joe Fanning make the horse’s mind up for him and go from the front here, back at his optimum 1m6f trip.
One thing is for sure; a mark of 94 is a gift (of sorts) on that Nottingham run. Indeed, he is now only 2lb higher than when winning over course and distance last July.
He may well have gone at the game though, attitude-wise, which is why I want a decent bang for my buck and 12as doesn’t cut it.
As at 7.28am, I have just backed Dancing In Paris each way at 11s, four places. He is a very solid play.
Another warning shot over UK racing’s bows, as only seven line up for this 100k 3yo 1m4f handicap.
To be fair, it’s a classy renewal, despite the lack of numbers, and William Haggas has a fair shot of his fourth win in the race in the last five years with [7/2] poke Tenability (the 4s went this morning).
Maureen Haggas seemed very relieved that Delphine Santiago eventually got a run on him in the Shergar Cup here last time and snuck home by a neck, and the handicapper did all he could do in the circumstances by raising him 4lb.
You suspect that they rate him a lot better than his current mark of 92, but he does have to prove his worth in this deeper ground, for all it will probably be that drying, gluey surface that prevailed at Sandown last weekend.
I don’t have a strong betting opinion at all but I can see why the well-regarded Push The Limit, up 7lb for a well-punted Goodwood success last time, heads the market at [9/5] – the 2s was taken on Friday morning, and that [9/5] will be coming under pressure – and why Daiquiri Bay has been nibbled into 5s.
The opening 10s in a place about him on Thursday was a touch silly, though the Melrose third did go up 2lb for that York run and he was beaten 3 ½ lengths.
I can see the step back to 1m4f suiting him, even if the jockey does nothing for me.
Some firms are offering three places on this handicap by the way.
An illustration of how weak these early markets are can be gauged by the price movements of Rogue Millions. He was a “mover” yesterday, hitting as low as 3s, but he is currently a very weak 7s chance on Betfair.
As little as a oner can move an early market, it is that shallow.
Haydock have missed most of the rain they were forecast at the start of the week, and it now looks like they will start on good ground, with maybe (unlikely perhaps) some good to firm in places creeping into the going description by the time of the Betfair Sprint Cup at 3.35pm on Saturday afternoon.
We all know how unfathomable the Group sprints have been this season – and none more so than the July Cup, in which No Half Measure’s 66s win was the biggest head-scratcher, even if the usual over-watering on the July course undoubtedly played its part there – but I do think Lazzat will take a lot of stopping if returning to the form of his Royal Ascot defeat of Satono Reve, with Flora Of Bermuda 3 lengths away in third.
Correction.
If he returns to that level, then he wins, so I can’t argue with 2s about him against this grade of sprinters (he is actually 5/2 in a place – and 3.65 on Betfair as of 4.15am, but a mere 26k has only been matched on that market, pretty pitiful stuff, even at this hour).
But he didn’t run up to that form when second in the Prix Maurice De Gheest at Deauville last time, and he has no Haydock experience, so I can certainly let him pass at those odds.
And you never know how the draw will pan out here (those readings across the track on Thursday made for interesting viewing – see below – and I’d like to see an updated version asap on Saturday morning).
Fair play to the course, as they updated those readings by 7am. The fastest trip is with the high numbers.
There were nibbles around for last year’s runner-up Kind Of Blue at 8s on Thursday and it sound as if James Fanshawe has got the horse where he wants him for the first time this season.
So the each-way case for him, extra places, is obvious, as a Group 1 winner coming to the boil. His chance would have been even stronger if they had got the rain, but then he wouldn’t have been available at 7s if it had landed, I guess.
There is actually some [15/2] out there, four places. And he is now out to [17/2] and 12.0 on Betfair as at 4.15am.
The one I kept on coming back to was Annaf at 66s each way, five places. That combination is available with three firms, if just the one bookmaking outfit.
So if one price goes (especially if it is a privileged account doing the betting), then it is likely all three will tumble (though that is not always the case, it is the reality), but we cannot affect that.
There is also 66s, four places, out there with three others (one is 1/4 the odds 1,2,3,4, which is another nice betting combo).
He is now best at 40s at 4.15am.
Now, he is the lowest-rated in here at 107 – and I’d have liked him to be drawn higher than four looking at the pace map (see below) – so we are hoping for another Group 1 sprint merry-go-round result here, but the place part of the bet looks juicy to me.
And when all the markets without Lazzat appear, I may play him there, too.
He is currently available at 50s win-only with one, and also that price without the favourite and 8s outright poke Time For Sandals (as at 7.59am).
Both highly acceptable, even if that firm doesn’t offer each-way terms on their without markets.
In truth, Annaf has been pretty disappointing in the main since going over to Riyadh in February 2024 and copping a huge 945k for winning there (it pays to park the morals), though he has thrown in a few good runs along the way, to be fair to him.
He finished 15th of 16 in this race last season but he had no chance when the door was slammed in his face 2f out (he also had no luck in running when beaten 3 ½ lengths in the 2023 renewal before thriving afterwards), but he showed he could be on the way back to his 114-rated best when running a cracker in the Group 1 City Of York Stakes last time.
He was beaten only 3 lengths into seventh there, despite losing two places close home when his 7f stamina ebbed away, and that effort puts him bang in the place-frame here back to his optimum trip.
That York run certainly looked better than the handicapper decided it was anyway (he raised him 2lb to 107) and I reckon he has much better chances of a top four/five finish than the prices suggest.
Incidentally, his peak mark of 114 has only been bettered by Lazzat, Inisherin, Kind Of Blue, Run To Freedom and Big Mojo (and only between 1-3lb in the case of all bar the 120-rated favourite), so I am very happy to take my chances at the price.
Oh, and please do ensure you get your money back on Almeraq if you backed the [8/1] ante-post second favourite. And the same applies to the reserves Nighteyes and Celandine if they don’t get a run by 1pm today (Friday).
I know I bang on about this – mainly because no-one else does, when they should – but it is important.
And I like a moan too, it is true…
Annaf at [66/1] each way, five places, with three firms, in 3.35pm at Haydock on Saturday (also 66s out there, four places, 1/4 the odds 1,2,3,4)
GOING: Good
Going stick: 7.1, Saturday 7am
Inside: 6.9. Centre: 7.0. Outside. 7.6
Soil moisture average: 39%
Saturday morning course update: 10mm last week. 3mm Monday. 2mm Wednesday. 2mm Thursday. 1mm Friday. Saturday dry and sunny. Max temperature: 21°C
Weather: Dry
Rails: All races will be run on the outer course
Stalls: 5f & 6f: Centre 1m & 1m6f: Inside
GOING – Round course: Soft, good to soft in places; Straight: Soft, good to soft in places
Following track renovations since the last meeting the grass recovery this year has been particularly slow and there are some patches of younger grasses with a less dense sward
Going stick: Straight: 6.7, Round: 5.3. Soil moisture: 40% readings taken at 7.15am on Saturday
Saturday morning course update: Dry overnight to Saturday. Total of 25mm rain recorded through the past week. Today is expected to be generally fine and dry with just a small risk of an occasional shower. For live weather station and Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Weather: Dry
Stalls: Straight Course: Stands side. Round Course: Inside
GOING: Standard to slow
The track was refurbished with 1000 tonnes of new polytrack with a higher percentage wax content and fiber, which was blended into the original material to improve kickback. It will ride on the slow side for a period of time
Stalls: All: Inside
Watering: 20mm of water will be applied today
3.35pm Haydock: Sky Majesty, Rage Of Bamby
2.05pm Kempton: Kalamunda, Best Rate, Dash Of Azure, Savvy Kingdom, Gaiety Musical, Ray de La Batalla, Notimeforchitchat, Maybe Not, Ombreceli, Giant, Zoffandia
3.35pm Haydock: Celandine, Nighteyes, Almeraq
1.15pm Haydock: Prague (1), Snow Master (2), Suite Francaise (7) – Balmacara is a NR
1.35pm Kempton: Candleford (5), Satavia (presumably a pacemaker for Kalpana – 2)
1.50pm Haydock: Tailgunner Joe (7) – He’s Waliim is a NR as at 8,26pm (not eaten up), so this is now a seven-runner race
2.05pm Kempton: Whitcombe Rockstar (4), Mr Baloo (14), Silent Age (5), Local Hero (1), Sir Paul Ramsey (9)
2.25pm Haydock: Gran Descans (3), Winston Junior (6), Fantasy World (11), Ride The Thunder (10), Love Talk (5), Mafting (2) – Teirnan is a NR
2.40pm Ascot: Nostrum (19), Tarkhan (8), Telemark (5), Strong Warrior (6), Afentiko (18), King’s Lynn (13), Mister Bluebird (15)
3pm Haydock: Caballo De Mar (12), Loughville (8), Kildare Legend (15), Align The Stars (with blinkers on – 10) – Torcello and Tashkhan are NRs
3.15pm Ascot: Too Soon (6), Topteam (2)
3.35pm Haydock: Diligent Harry (9), Lazzat (10), Rage Of Bamby (13), James’s Delight (7)?
Good: William Haggas, James Fanshawe, Charlie Johnston (good for him, as a numbers trainer), Simon Dow, John and Thady Gosden, Hamad Al Jehani, David Menuisier, Mick Appleby, Alan King, Henry Candy, William Knight, Roger Varian, Simon and Ed Crisford, Ed Walker
Fair: Sir Mark Prescott, Andrew Balding (borderline good), Ian Williams, Daniel and Claire Kubler, David Evans (borderline moderate), Richard Fahey, Roger Fell (11-2 winner on Thursday), James Owen, Jack Channon, Tom Dascombe, Brian Meehan (no winners though), George Boughey, Hugo Palmer, Jessie Harrington, Grant Tuer, George Scott, James Ferguson, Y Barberot, J Reynier, Ger Lyons, Eve Johnson Houghton, David O’Meara, Clive Cox, Dylan Cunha, Karl Burke, Iain Jardine, Marco Botti, Ralph Beckett, Johnny Murtagh, Richard Hannon, Dominic French Davis, Oliver Cole (very small sample), James Tate (7-1 and 4-5 winners on Thursday), Kevin Ryan (8-1 winner on Thursday), Michael Bell (winners at 25s and 22s of late)
Moderate: Keiran Burke, Ed Dunlop, Gary and Josh Moore, Brian Ellison, Philip Kirby, Harry Eustace, Richard Hughes (certainly from a strike rate perspective), Harry Charlton, Charles Hills (11-2 winner on Friday evening broke a poor spell), Jamie Osborne (6-1 winner on Friday though), Heather Main
Don’t know: Chris Gordon, Coyle and Wood, Shaun Lycett
2.30pm – Royal Ascot 2yo races – The Bonfire Of The Vanities Your Song is…
ROYAL ASCOT Going: Good to firm Going Stick – Stands side: 8.9, Centre: 8.7, Farside:…
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