TONY CALVIN: All Saturday and Sunday ITV races discussed here

Double entries a massive factor again this week

I have already dealt with Friday’s ITV racing – you can access that here: https://tips.akbets.co.uk/tony-calvin-the-four-friday-cheltenham-ante-post-races-discussed/ – but the action clearly steps up a gear or two at the weekend.

The betting waters are muddied by a plethora of doubly-entered horses (crucial to note when punting ante-post), so please take note and bear that in mind.

All of those details for Friday to Sunday are listed below.

One of the downsides of a three-day Cheltenham meeting is that it gives trainers plenty of options for their horses, and plenty have taken full use of those.

It’s a bit of a mess for ante-post punters, if truth be told.

For example, Doyen Quest is the [5/1] favourite for both the 2m5f and 3m handicap hurdles at Cheltenham on Saturday, making him unbackable for ante-post purposes.

Punters may also be well advised to factor in opportunities a week or so down the line. We have relatively big meetings at Ascot and Haydock on November 23, and some connections may decide to keep their powder dry and play the waiting game for similar pots.

Anyway, let’s take in each ITV race this weekend, however briefly.

Cheltenham have been watering since last Wednesday (no amounts given), and the ground is currently officially good, with a Sunday going stick reading of 6.6.

Look out for JP McManus runners

One thing I would say about this meeting is look out for JP McManus’ horses.

He tends to attend this three-day fixture (I imagine he may have to limit his appearances in the UK for tax reasons?) and he often instructs his trainers to have his horses primed for it.

Of course, they are never going to be missed in the market anyway, but, by the same token,  they are not likely to be there for a sighter.

I think he has 12 possibles at Cheltenham alone.

SATURDAY

1.45pm Cheltenham – hoping for five runners or more here

ITV and Cheltenham are playing with fire again by putting on a novices’ chase on their terrestrial schedule, in the full knowledge these races very rarely attract a betting-optimal number of eight entries, and very often don’t even lead to each way 1,2 betting.

Or, as in the case of Exeter last Friday, any betting at all.

At least we have 11 five-day entries and a good spread of trainers – only Joseph O’Brien has two entries, though both carry troublesome 5lb penalties – so hopefully we get at least five runners.

That’s the kind of level of expectation we are dealing with in the case of novices’ chases.

Five of the 11 entries have other options this week, though (as ever, see below) and Path D’Oroux ran at Carlisle on Monday, so maybe five is wishful thinking.

So not a great surprise to see bookmakers giving this 1m7f99yd novices’ chase a swerve ante-post.

2.20pm Cheltenham – Ginny’s Destiny a very fair price at 3/1

No danger of the layers sitting the Paddy Power Gold Cup out.

Indeed, they have been betting on this race for a while and long-term favourite Ginny’s Destiny is a best-priced 3s for this 2m4f44yd handicap, which attracted just 17 confirmations on Monday.

That is already three below the maximum field of 20.

I am not going to bang on about the ground again, but good going could scare off some (even though they may well water again mid-meeting at some point if it remains dry, as is forecast), as could the presence of Protektorat.

The 167-rated chaser casts a big shadow over this race, as he currently puts seven of the 17 out of the weights.

Dan Skelton has said the horse is set to run here, instead of the Betfair Chase a week on Saturday (a race he won in 2022 and took part in last year), and that would suit Paul Nicholls, as he would be happy with a racing weight of 11st 2lb for Ginny’s Destiny.

If not for his Il Ridoto, who would be 3lb out of the handicap. And that horse could be a factor here regardless, as this is his track and he has come down the weights.

I don’t really have any issue with Ginny’s Destiny’s price of 3s to be honest, given his course form, his run-style, his touch of class, his time figures and a very fair handicap mark of 155.

Looking at a pretty underwhelming opposition, I’d rather be backer than a layer at 3s at this stage, that is for sure.

I think he wins this race more than once in four attempts, for all his record off a break is a slight cause for concern.

But let’s see if Protektorat does indeed rock up here on Thursday – trainers have been known to change their minds, as we have seen in recent days – and go from there.

Only Weveallbeencaught has another option this week.

JP watch brings in Janidil and In Excelsis Deo, while Hartur D’arc wasn’t confirmed for the Troytown on Tuesday, so presumably comes here.

2.55pm Cheltenham – 10/1 Anna Bunina has just been given Sunday Navan option

We are already three shy of the 20-runner maximum field here too, and eight of these are doubly-entered, including the aforementioned Doyen Quest, together with his stablemate Major Fortune, and Emailandy.

They are priced up at 5s, 6s and 7s respectively, with the wildly progressive Skyjack Hijack the other market leader (at 5s) with this as his sole option.

But Skyjack Hijack is also one of six in at Haydock a week on Saturday, so this is a very messy race.

I hope you bought on the number of times “messy” appears in this column.

I never really had Anna Bunina pegged as a three-miler and the jury is still out on her stamina (after two runs over the trip) but she ticks a lot of the other boxes in here, and 10s about her is not a bad price, given the running doubts elsewhere.

I’d prefer to see her running in the 2m5f handicap, though.

And she has just been given an entry at Navan on Sunday, so she can’t be backed ante-post as a result, anyway.

3.15pm Newcastle – No prices as of yet

I doubt I’ll get involved in Saturday’s all-weather racing on the day, let alone at this stage, but I feel it is important to take note of the ante-post betting just in case.

It gives you a degree of context when Thursday arrives, and the revised prices are trotted out.

Saying that, I couldn’t find one bookie who priced this up, and I went from site to site looking, old school!

There are 11 five-day entries for this 1m2f Listed race, anyway.

3.30pm Cheltenham – 12 of the 22 in here are doubly-entered

Another very messy race, with 12 of the 22 in here doubly-entered in this 2m5f handicap hurdle, with three entered in an early-closer at Haydock a week on Saturday.

Of course, that presents an opportunity elsewhere, though I’m damned if I can see it.

That said, I am probably damned, regardless….

Pass. This is easily left alone until we see the final field on Thursday.

For what it is worth, Doyen Quest ranges from [7/2] to [13/2] in the marketplace.

The Entain group sponsor the Skelton yard and they go the [13/2] and Harry Skelton is jocked up on stablemate Major Fortune.

Make of that what you will.

Maybe Doyen Quest goes down the 3m route (and Skelton is jocked up there), but I’ve no idea.

And I don’t personally buy into the fact that sponsors get running plans from trainers and jockeys, though I am sure plenty do.

3.48pm Newcastle – Nothing doing for this race either

Nothing doing on the price front here at the moment, either. There are 16 entries for this 6f Listed race.

SUNDAY

1.45pm Cheltenham – Rain could arrive after racing on Saturday and stay for Sunday

Some sites suggest there could be rain arriving after racing on Saturday and lingering into Sunday, so that is something to be keep an eye on

No prices for this race, so let’s move on.

Again, I am not surprised though, as 11 of the 20 are doubly-entered this week.

Too. Many. Options. Stupid.

2.05pm Fontwell – The first National of the season?

Bookmakers clearly believe it is Cheltenham all the way this week, as I couldn’t find any prices for the Southern National at Fontwell on Sunday, a race that has attracted a healthy 19 entries.

Oh hang on, they have just started to appear and Jubilee Express is just edging favoutism over JP’s Musical Slave at the [5/1] mark.

Be warned that Musical Slave is one of a few in here who also have the 3m2f handicap chase at Uttoxeter on Saturday as an option.

2.20pm Cheltenham – Seven of the 12 could go elsewhere

Three of these are in the Shloer on Sunday, so be careful. They are Calico, Libberty Hunter and Matata and they are all vying for favouritism in certain lists.

As is Petit Tonnerre, 4s across the board but also in the Arkle Trial on Saturday.

Another three of the 12 in here could also go elsewhere this weekend.

Pick a runner, and you are likely to be in a good trading position, not that the prices on offer are particularly generous and factor in the possibility of a fair few no-shows.

2.55pm Cheltenham – 10/1 Manothepeople looks a very solid 10s poke

At least only six of the 17 could decide to run elsewhere, though five are currently out of the handicap.

And top weight Nassalam is jocked up, with a 3lb claimer booked.

Even so, recent Newton Abbot winner Hymac, currently 3b out of the handicap, is a general 5s chance and the favourite.

If the numbers stand up to any meaningful degree, I reckon you will get similar prices about most of these of the day and probably an extra place (all bookmakers are betting to three places, a quarter the odds, at the moment).

For what it is worth, I thought Manothepeople looked a solid 10s chance, as a course winner who will enjoy the ground and who is fit after a good reappearance run at Chepstow. And the 3m3f+ trip shouldn’t be an issue here.

Yes, solid.

3.30pm Cheltenham – 5/1 Burdett Road should be favourite but dangers abound

ITV save the best until last and I’d be confident most of the 20 in the Greatwood Hurdle will stand their ground.

It’s usually a cracking betting heat.

First things first, I can’t get my head around as to what a bad price Dysart Enos is in this. She is a general 3s chance, and [7/2] in a place, and I genuinely wouldn’t be tempted by 7s.

Well, I would if I could immediately lay her back at 4s for a free bet…..

Predicting the near-the-off markets is fraught with danger these days, with such light exchange liquidity (and total guesswork in truth), but I can see her being very easy to back on the day.

Sure, she was a very good bumper horse, she has course form and is unbeaten over hurdles and she has the positive chat surrounding her, but a mark of 131 is very harsh on what she has achieved over the sticks (long time since I wrote that phrase) and we haven’t seen her in a long while.

Of course, she can win. But I just can’t see why she is so short, for all her price is clearly based on her impressive bumper form.

I can fully see the case for main market rival Burdett Road, though.

I actually backed him in a few different markets at Ascot last time and, while I didn’t get paid on any, I thought he ran well in the circumstances in that Group 2 behind Kyprios.

Rated 109 on the Flat (following an all-the-way, runaway, success at Newmarket in September from a subsequent winner), he has the ability to stroll home here off 133 and of course he has won around here over hurdles.

I will probably have him as at least a saver on the day. He’d be idea of the right favourite, and I would expect him to go off as such on Sunday.

The problem with betting now is that it is a pretty established, tight market, and bookmakers are betting to the standard four places.

And, as none of these have alternative plans (Anyharminasking is in the 3m+ handicap hurdle a week on Saturday), I would expect a big field and enhanced place terms on the day.

Of course, a lot of punters can’t access these offers, but plenty can.

It’s a consideration if betting now, anyway.

I would definitely be interested in Anyharminasking on the day if he comes here, even though 2m on (possibly) good ground may be too sharp a task for him and they may wait for the more leisurely 3m at Haydock.

For all its prestige, this is only a 100k pot, as is Haydock’s. Cheltenham’s prize money doesn’t knock your eye out, even at the Festival. Perhaps especially at the Festival.

But he travelled so well when a good third over 2m4f here last time in first-time cheekpieces, hitting 2.6 in running – and I know he has flattered to deceive before – that he is surely well weighted off 135.

The on-the-show betting tells you he was backed from 18s to 16s last time but he was a colossal drifter beforehand (he was trading in single figures when the betting opened), so that run was well above market expectations.

He would interest me at a price if showing up. I know he wasn’t a factor in this race last season but 28s in a place underestimates his chance.

You have to wait to back him, though.

Harry Derham

Harry Derham has a ridiculously good record with new recruits to his yard (particularly handicappers) – I’ll save the actual, detailed stats for one of the weekend columns, as I will include him as a “Trainer In Focus” – and they are rarely missed in the market. Slugger was the most recent example at Carlisle earlier in the month.

Derham will take on magician status if he can get the frustrating Teddy Blue (one of a couple sent to him by the owners, from the Moores) over the line here, but he certainly has the raw talent to work with here and at least he is a price at the general 20s.

Back on Thursday morning.

 

GROUND AND WEATHER AT ITV TRACKS THIS WEEK – updated 8.30am Wednesday

 

CHELTENHAM

GOING:  They “anticipate good, good to soft in places when the watering cycle finishes on Wednesday” (7.16am Wednesday)

GOING STICK:  6.7 at 3pm Tuesday

WEATHER: Dry and 10 degrees

WATERING: “Watering will continue to maintain and improve.”

 

FONTWELL

GOING:  Good (“remains on the slow side, at present”; as of 10.24am Tuesday)

GOING STICK:  6.3 (Sunday, 7.30am)

WEATHER: Dry, but maybe showers Thursday

 

NEWCASTLE

GOING:  Standard

 

DOUBLE-ENTRIES FOR THE ITV RACES

 

FRIDAY

1.45pm Cheltenham: Guard Your Dreams, Resplendent Grey, Broomfield Bijou

2.20pm Cheltenham: Calico, Libberty Hunter, Matata

(Unexpected Party finished second at Carlisle on Monday)

NB: Boothill, Master Chewy, Calico, Libberty Hunter and Unexpected Party also in an early-closing handicap at Ascot on November 23

2.55pm Cheltenham:  Macgiloney, Tommie Beau, Slipway, Escaria Ten, Deise Aba, Farceur Du Large, Streets Of Doyen, Bodhisattva,

NB: Conflated is in John Durkan on November 24

3.30pm Cheltenham: Rockstown Girl, Grandad’s Cap, Mr Percy, Patter Merchant, Minella Sixo

 

SATURDAY

1.45pm Cheltenham: Breizh River, Petit Tonnerre, Primoz, Sam Salvador, Western Zephyr, (Path D’Oroux finished last in a four-runner race at Carlisle on Monday)

2.20pm Cheltenham: Weveallbeencaught

NB: Protektorat and Ginny’s Destiny are in Betfair Chase a week on Saturday, but this race seems the plan for both; Kotmask is in early closer at Ascot on Nov 23

2.55pm Cheltenham: Doyen Quest, Emailandy, First Lord De Cuet, Major Fortune, Pinnacle Peak, Thanksforthehelp, The Four Sixes, Anna Bunina

NB: Gowel Road, Hardy Boy, Major Fortune, Skyjack Hijack & Thanksforthehelp are in an early closer ay Haydock on Nov 23

3.15pm Newcastle: NONE

3.30pm Cheltenham: Arctic Gale, Doyen Quest, Emailandy, Hamsiyann, Letterston Lily, Londonofficecalling, Major Fortune, Mikimoto, Plaisir Des Flos, Welsh Charger, Whatsupwithyou, Wonderful Eagle

NB: Arctic Gale, Major Fortune & Plaisir Des Flos are in an early closer at Haydock on Nov 23

3.48pm Newcastle: NONE

SUNDAY

1.45pm Cheltenham: Weveallbeencaught, Densworth, Emailandy, Guard Your Dreams, Myretown, Primoz, Resplendent Grey, Riskinintheground (also in an early closer on Nov 23), San Salvador, The Other Mozzie, Western Zephyr

2.05pm Fontwell: Almazhar Garde, Gold Clermont, Investment Manager, Musical Slave, The Scorpion King, The Wrekin

2.20pm Cheltenham: Breizh River, Calico, Libberty Hunter, Matata, Petit Tonnerre, Riskintheground, San Salvador

NB: Frere D’Armes, Gunsight Ridge, Libberty Hunter & Third Time Lucki are also in an early closer on Nov 23

2.55pm Cheltenham: Bangers And Cash, Dom Of Mary, Escaria Ten, First Lord De Cuet, Investment Manager, Tommie Beau

3.30pm Cheltenham: NONE

NB: Anyharminasking is an early closer at Haydock on Nov 23 (3m hurdle)