TONY CALVIN: All of the weekend ante-post races analysed here

We probably have to accept watering now as a fact of punting life

In an ideal world, I’d be very much in favour of courses letting nature dictate the state of the ground but, given the current horse population and the paucity of runners, I accept that is increasingly wishful thinking.

Basically, courses have to maximise numbers and the reality is that entails watering.

Look at the numbers for Saturday’s eight ITV races, and this is without factoring in the numerous double-entries listed below.

In that ideal world of mine, the amount of entries at the five-day stage for Ascot and Wetherby would be those remaining after overnight confirmations on Thursday morning.

At Wetherby, we have just 44 entries for four races, and at Ascot that number is 57 for the same number of contests.

Worrying times for all concerned.

The ground is already good at Ascot – the going stick reading on the hurdles course suggests it is not far off good to firm creeping into the description – and the forecast is largely dry and 15 degrees,  so it is understandable that they have already started watering.

In fact, they are putting on a hefty 10mm on Tuesday, with more to come, no doubt.

Wetherby is currently good to soft, good in places, with a largely dry week forecast (and the same temperatures as at Ascot), so you wouldn’t rule out irrigation there, either.

Odds-on, I thought – though maybe not.

Wetherby clerk Jonjo Sanderson said: “There isn’t any rain on the horizon but we’ve had very little since our first meeting a fortnight ago and it has barely dried out. I don’t really want to water – good ground is good ground – unless it’s just in specific areas and I don’t think we’ll be anywhere near good to firm.”

I like the cut of his jib.

The weather isn’t a solely UK problem either, as Thurles on Thursday has been cancelled “due to unsuitable ground conditions/insufficient rain.”

Saturday’s races

I don’t envy those who have to file ante-post tipping copy, with selections, come what may, and this weekend is particularly difficult to eke out any firm betting opportunities.

Not only do we have the dry weather to contend with, and those small fields at the five-day stage, we have the double-entries to factor in (including racing in Ireland) and the fact that a few trainers dominate numerically, too.

So they can pick and choose their battles on Thursday morning.

For example, Dan Skelton loves to target this Wetherby meeting, and he is responsible for eight of the 44 entries on Saturday’s ITV card.

And he certainly is not the only trainer with multiple options in the terrestrial races.

In the eight ITV Saturday races, Skelton is joined by Nicky Henderson, Gordon Elliott, Olly Murphy, Paul Nicholls, Ben Pauling, Gary and Josh Moore, Fergal O’Brien and Kim Bailey as being doubly represented in at least one of those contests.

A pie-in-the-sky wish

It’ll never happen, as ante-post betting is such small beer (and connections will rightly track the decs on Thursday morning to make their late calls, no doubt after badgering clerks to put down more water), but in an ideal world (I hope you bought this phrase being mentioned at two) trainers would indicate their first preference early in the week, to give punters a better handle on possible/probable running plans.

Yes, I know.

A Million.

Anyway, I am going to have a very quick spin through the eight races. I’ll start with Wetherby.

AKBets have priced up seven of the eight ITV races, as well as the Breeders’ Cup contests from Del Mar on Saturday, for those punters who like their yearly helping of Septic Tank action.

You are definitely on your own there.

1.50pm Wetherby – Sweet Fantasy the each-way filth

UPDATE 7.30am Wednesday – The ground has now dried to good, good to soft in places, with a going stick reading of 6.4.

Brighterdaysahead ([3/1]) is in a Grade 3 at Down Royal on Friday and Kateira ([7/2] is also doubly-entered, so that is why Luccia is so short in the betting, ranging from [4/5] to evens.

Add in the fact the fourth favourite Take No Chances is as short as 5s and is also in the bet365 Hurdle, and this is a bit of a mess, punting-wise. Royal Eagle and Endless Escape are other double-entries.

That said, I am surprised bookmakers are betting to three places, so the unpenalised Sweet Fantasy – the first three in the betting all carry penalties – may be the each-way filth at a general 7s, with Harry Cobden already jocked up.

2.22pm Wetherby – 2/1 Strong Leader looks justified

With Dashel Drasher in the Charlie Hall – in addition, we have no idea at the moment if the three Irish horses will be given entries at home this weekend  – I have no issue with Strong Leader being priced up at [2/1] in a place.

Even with his 6lb penalty, a burden Dashel Drasher would also have to carry if going here.

2.52pm Wetherby – Eight of the 13 have other options in Charlie Hall

This could cut up dramatically, so find a runner and you’ll be in a good trading position at the very least.

Whether your bookmaker will appreciate you scalping them is another matter….

Bravemansgame is one of the few who looks sure to be running in this, given his well-being – see double-entries below – so he is rather favourite by default in some places at a best-priced [7/4]. He doesn’t carry a penalty, though.

Market rival Grey Dawning (carries a 3lb penalty) is also available at [7/4] but he is also in Carlisle on Sunday and will he turn up on good ground or so?

I’ve no idea.

However, Skelton seems to be favouring Saturday providing if the ground is suitable – that could be a fair if given Sanderson’s comments above – and reports him pretty straight (though he did say he takes a lot of getting fit).

It is thought Hewick will be supplemented for Down Royal on Sunday later today (Tuesday), so I wouldn’t be currently tempted by the fact that he currently has no other weekend options. He soon will have.

UPDATE: And he duly has been supplemented into the Grade One there. There are only seven entries in that.

3.32pm Wetherby – I am surprised bookmakers are betting to three places here

Again, with five of the 10 double-entered in this, I am very surprised bookmakers are betting to three places here.

The two I liked most, Jungle Jack and Secret Squirrel, have alternative engagements this week, so there endeth my ante-post interest.

Skelton’s Williethebuilder is the favourite at a best-priced [11/4].

1.30pm Ascot – Three trainers have two options in 10-runner field

Only four firms (at the time of publishing) have priced this up (effectively only two, as three come under one bookmaking umbrella).

Jingko Blue is the [7/4] favourite, though Henderson also has Bhaloo in here.

Pauling and Nicholls are also doubly represented at the moment.

2.05pm Ascot – 11/2 Saint Segal appeals most

Fourteen entries for this 100k 2m1f handicap but that is still a little disappointing for a race that could house 18 runners on the day.

Skelton and Gary and Josh Moore each have three runners in here, so backing any of those ante-post obviously comes with risks attached, while Nicholls’ Matterhorn (also in 1.30pm) is double entered.

Master Chewy is the class act in here and obviously comes from a stable with their horses very forward, so I don’t think he is a bad price at 5s in a place, even off a mark of 154.

Is he a likely runner off top weight on good ground, though?

Not a clue.

Saint Segal is a very credible alternative after blowing away the cobwebs on his return at Chepstow, for which he was dropped 2lb. And he looks set to run.

He is very well handicapped off 135 if putting it altogether, as he was about to do when falling at the last here last November. And he had earlier finished third in this race.

However, the 7s in two places disappeared on Tuesday morning and, at [11/2], he is now easy enough to resist at this stage.

3.15pm Ascot – 6/1 Fiercely Proud looking to redeem himself

A highly competitive 19 runners at the five-day stage, with Fiercely Proud and Steel Ally the [6/1] joint favourites, though Secret Squirrel ranges from 6s to 8s.

An easy race to leave alone at this stage – there are a couple of likely sorts if turning up on the day, including one we haven’t seen for a good while – but Fiercely Proud was obviously all the rage for a Cheltenham handicap last week before getting loose and being withdrawn.

A mark of 129 does look highly exploitable for him on his Kempton second to Lump Sum back in February. He is 6s with AKBets.

But, like I said, I’ll wait until I see the final field. This could take a maximum of 18.

3.45pm Ascot – 3/1 Chianti Classico heads the market despite the ground

Venetia Williams has yet to get going this autumn (in fact she has her first runner since May at Bangor on Tuesday – finished a fair fifth as a 9-2 favourite, nothing more) but she has had some success at this meeting in the past and her Victtorino bids to back up his reappearance win in this race last season.

He is biggest at 8s to do so.

Chianti Classico is your general 3s favourite, even though he probably wants more dig than seems likely.

Unless they get really jiggy with the watering. Which they may do again on Thursday.

Go well.

GOING AND WEATHER FOR THE ITV TRACKS THIS WEEK – updated 7.30am Wednesday

WETHERBY (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

Going: Good, good to soft in places

Going stick: 6.4 as at 7.30am Wednesday (Hurdle 6.5; Chase 6.3)

Weather:  Light showers all week, if any

Watering: TBC

ASCOT (going stick readings not updated since 9am Monday – poor, especially after the Tuesday watering)

Going: Good

Going stick – Chase: 7.6; Hurdle: 7.9 (9am Monday)

Weather:  Dry

Watering: 10mm on Tuesday, no messing about; maybe water again on Thursday

DOWN ROYAL

Going: Good to yielding

Weather:  Dry, 14-15 degrees

Watering: “Selective watering”. No, me neither. I’m sure owners and trainers would like to know how much, though.

SATURDAY’s DOUBLE ENTRIES FOR THE 8 ITV RACES (now includes Down Royal Saturday entries)

1.50pm Wetherby: Brighterdaysahead, Endless Escape, Kateira, Take No Chances, Royal Eagle (now in at Down Royal)

2.22pm Wetherby: Dashel Drasher, Kateira, Take No Chances, Thunder Rock

2.58pm Wetherby: Conflated, Dashel Drasher, Flegmatik, Gerri Colombe, Grey Dawning, Hewick (supplemented at Down Royal), Iroko, Thunder Rock

3.22pm Wetherby: Goblet Of Fire, Jungle Jack, Piecederesistance, Salsada, Secret Squirrel

1.30pm Ascot: Bad, Classic King (ran at Chepstow on Tuesday), Leader In The Park, Matterhorn

2.05pm Ascot: Matterhorn

NB: Harper’s Brook is in the Sefton on Nov 9

3.15pm Ascot: Endless Escape, Goblet Of Fire, Jour D’Evasion, Rock House, Secret Squirrel

3.45pm Ascot: Flegmatik, Mylesfromwicklow, Outlaw Peter

NB: Highstakesplayer and Our Power are in the Sefton on Nov 9