By Tony Calvin - 5 November 2024
There is ITV Racing from Exeter on Friday, but bookmakers were not overly-keen to price those races up on Monday – in fact, some have now gone up with Haldon Gold Cup lines, but the first firm up bet to 143 per cent on that 10-runner race and the others aren’t much better, so that is easy to ignore – so I’ll push that to one side for now.
I’ll start Friday’s racing afresh on Wednesday.
Incidentally, if you do bet on that race, be aware that 7s chance Riskintheground also has two other options this week.
ITV are also showing a mammoth 11 races on Saturday – they must be paid by the contest – and there is one early-closer among them, Aintree’s Grand Sefton.
When I first looked at the betting on Sunday evening, there were two [10-1] joint-favourites, Frero Banbou and Percussion (placed in the last two renewals) in a then 44-strong field, though Latenightpass was as short as 6s in a place (two firms, one bookmaking outfit) and 16s elsewhere.
Frero Banbou.
I wouldn’t be alone in numbering him among my cliff horses in recent years, and this is a beast who hasn’t won since 21 January 2022, and is on a losing run of 16.
He has more than pushed his luck.
On the upside, he finished third in this race off a 3lb higher mark last season and his current rating of 130 is his lowest since winning by 9 lengths off 124 in March 2021.
And Venetia Williams (she had a winner at Ascot on Saturday) traditionally enjoys an excellent November – Djelo won at this meeting last year – albeit on softer ground than is currently doing the rounds.
She was 17 from 51 last November for an impressive 33 per cent strike rate, and followed that up with 18 from 65 in December before her form deteriorated for the rest of the season.
No, no, no, I must stop accentuating the positives for the 9yo, whose price now ranges from [11/2] to [8/1].
One disappointing aspect is that the field has cut up to just 17 five-day entries for a race that could have taken 30 on the day, though at least we don’t have any doubly-entered horses, which is obviously a big positive as to the numbers possibly holding up.
And only 10 ran in the race last season (on heavy ground), after all.
However, some of the Graded-race fields at Wincanton show us what a hole the upper tiers of UK racing are in.
Anyway, let’s have a quick spin through Saturday’s 11 ITV races.
The bookmakers were incredibly slow to price those up – and, perhaps understandably, the odds on offer are not exactly generous in places – but they have slowly filtered through.
I have a sneaking suspicion that all bookmakers would rather not offer ante-post betting on weeks like this.
It is currently good at Wincanton, and the option of watering will be reviewed daily. None so far on Monday and Tuesday.
I imagine they will be under pressure from various sets of connections to provide some ground with cut in it, officially or not, as the field sizes for the meeting at the five-day stage are worryingly low.
Three of the five ITV races have attracted eight runners or below, and the biggest five-day entry for any of the contests on the card is just 17, already three below the maximum allowed for that race.
ITV have added this 2m4f conditional jockeys’ handicap chase to their schedule, but it has got only eight entries.
I am surprised that anyone priced it up, given four of the eight are doubly-entered, but one firm who has make Saturday’s scorer Tedley their [2/1] favourite. He went up 6lb for that Wetherby win last weekend.
We don’t know where Monday’s 3m1f+ Plumpton scorer Sacre Coeur is going but I wouldn’t like to be holding that particularly baby at 8s here, even if he is carrying a 7lb penalty.
The going at Doncaster is currently soft, but there is a dry week forecast. However, I’ll be working on the basis of it staying soft.
The first firm up with this race on Monday afternoon made Room Service a [2/1] favourite and that looked very skinny to me, even if he is coming here off the back of a career-best at York last time, he will love the ground and he is an unpenalized course winner.
Plenty of positives for sure, but this race has depth, as it stands, so even [5/2] is eminently resistible, especially as only two of these have alternatives this week (see below) and 11 are already jocked up.
If you disagree, AKBets are top price about Room Service at that [5/2].
Numbers could hold here and I reckon you’ll get bigger about most on the day, possibly with an extra place thrown in for each-way punters.
The 10s chance Ten Bob Tony is one of the form horses and a forcing ride, stepped down in trip on soft ground, could make him interesting.
It is a mixture good and good to soft at Aintree, with a dry week. I imagine they will water. In fact, they unexpectedly got that ball rolling on Tuesday (see below).
The wisdom of having two Pertemps qualifiers within 48 hours came home to roost when Newbury’s race on Thursday attracted just five runners (so the first four home there will qualify) and I am not sure how numbers will hold up here.
One thing is for certain and that is do not back Monmiral or Henry’s Friend, as they confirmed for that Newbury qualifier.
Even if you shop around, six of these are priced between 5s and 8s in a race currently housing 19 entries, so I am not sure how much value lies in here.
Harbour Lake is the solid one but even a top-priced 7s is nothing flash.
A healthy enough 17 entries for this 2m5f+ mares’ handicap hurdle, though eight are doubly-entered this week.
Anthony Honeyball has had a quiet autumn but he is starting to mean business now, and his horses are running very well.
Only one outfit priced this up on Monday, but a few more have entered the fray (not many, though, and they all look to have copied one another).
Honeyball has last year’s winner, general 16s chance Good Luck Charm, in here, as well as Pure Theatre, who will appreciate the likely good ground, though the latter is also in at Fontwell on Friday.
There is no way I’d lay Good Luck Charm, who won this first time up last season, at 16s.
Ooh Betty, 10s in a place, was the horse I liked most in here, but she also has the option of Sandown on Sunday, so she is a no-go from an ante-post perspective.
Nothing much to say about this other than be careful if you are backing the [7/2] second favourite Helnwein, as he is also in at Sandown on Sunday.
I can see why Booster Bob heads the early betting – he was very weak in the betting when winning on his return at Ffos Las – but there is no juice in an ante-post price of [5/2].
Of the others Grey Diamond, 25s in a place and now back with Donald McCain, is of more interest back down to a mark of just 124, having been as high as 142 last year.
He ran okay last time at Wetherby and I can see him hitting the frame at a price.
Just the eight in here as it stands but this could be a very tasty race if the big guns stand firm.
I totally zone out when I see people giving their horses to follow. What does “follow” mean anyway?
Well, it can’t mean to blindly back them every time they run, can it, as that wouldn’t make any betting sense.
Anyway, I have seen plenty talk up Handstands, last of the six finishers in the Gallagher at the Festival, and he is thought to be a serious recruit to the chasing game.
He can show us just how serious if he runs here, as this is a hot Grade 2 novices’ chase as it stands.
He is the marginal [5/2] favourite over Resplendent Grey and Peaky Boy.
Peaky Boy is [11/4] but be aware he is also in a handicap chase at Sandown on Sunday, while Glynn also has other options.
With no Hitman, the weights have gone up 4lb and four horses (including Frero Banbou, sorry) have come into the handicap.
King Turgeon is currently 2lb wrong but he is still well-in under a 7lb penalty for his wide-margin recent Chepstow win.
We only have 17 entries, which is obviously very disappointing, but at least all of the horses that were at the top of the ante-post betting were confirmed on Monday.
On the plus side, none of the 17 are doubly-entered this week.
If you want to see how unattractive some day-of-week ante-post prices have become then witness one firm’s set of prices.
Six horses are priced up between [11/2] and [8/1], with a couple of others in at 10s for good measure, and none of those in single figures are even joint best-price.
Effectively saying “see you on Thursday” after the final fields are known.
Other firms are little better, and some are betting to three places.
I’ll happily leave this race alone until Thursday afternoon, when I suspect you will get bigger prices and better place terms, as well as taking out the losing bet. no-show factor.
Percussion currently just heads the market at [15/2].
I suppose the obvious one of interest is 20s chance Harper’s Brook on his debut for Dan Skelton.
I have no idea if he is an intended runner (Kielan Woods is jocked up, if that means anything) but you have a feeling there is more to come from this occasional monkey. Skelton may have a cunning plan though further down the line.
Richmond Lake, 25s in a few places, would interest me on the day. He is back to a winnable mark and he was never the same after slopping through atrocious ground here to score last December.
He won first time up in 2021 and 2023, but I want to see him entered on Thursday first. T
Connections may decide to wait with him if they think the ground hasn’t enough juice, for all Timeform have him winning on good ground at Ayr last year.
I personally believe good ground with a bit of dig will be fine, but they may think different, and that’s all that counts when it comes to ante-post betting.
Oh, and news just in. Arizona Cardinal has been ruled out with a dirty scope
The Grade 2 Elite Hurdle never gets a big field – four runners for the past three years, with seven the biggest in recent seasons – but just seven entries (bolstered by Henry De Bromhead’s Aspire Tower) shows us the current state of the 2m hurdling division in the UK.
Barren outside of the lesser-spotted Constitution Hill.
The highest-rated in here is Nemean Lion on 150.
And two of the seven (Dan Skelton’s Sacre Coeur and Forever William, rated 123 and 119) ran at Plumpton on Monday, with the former sluicing in by 20 lengths in a handicap chase, albeit helped by the odds-on favourite capsizing 2 out.
Cute placing by Skelton if this cuts up badly and he gets free money for his owners.
In fact, Sacre Coeur, who is also in the handicap chase at 1.09pm, picked up £3,855 for finishing last of four to Rubaud in this race last season.
It’s a tight-knit race on ratings, but maybe Nemean Lion is a likely non-runner on the ground, unless they put a lot of water down.
I’d probably lean towards the race-fit and unpenalized Aspire Tower at [15/2] in two places, at this stage. In fact, one firm has just gone 8s.
He was back to winning form, switched to hurdles, at Punchestown last month but this isn’t a betting race for me.
It’s a tough race to call and I’ve no idea what will turn up. In fact, Aspire Tower may not, especially as the Irish weekend entries are not out until Tuesday afternoon and for all I know he could have an option there.
Neither do the bookmakers know what will rock up either, by the looks of it.
Let’s just say they are being defensive with their prices, not that you can blame them, with last year’s winner Rubaud at evens or [10/11], probably on the basis he will run if fit and healthy.
He will carry a maximum 6lb penalty though, as would Nemean Lion, with Lump Sum carrying a 3lb burden.
He was probably a very shrewd buy for 200k at Chris Giles’ dispersal sale. He picked up over 28k at Kempton last month, and it is 41k to the winner here.
A very healthy five-day entry of 21 and Danielle is the early [7/2] favourite after a solid recent second at Newbury.
Once again, I wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers held up here – only three of the 21 have alternative entries – as trainers knew what ground they were declaring on.
And, as such, getting involved ante-post probably entails taking a moderate price in the main.
Southwell winner Shaha has a lot to find on the book and is only a best-priced 6s, but the well-bred Cracksman filly will surely be hunting some valuable black type here, even if she is a stablemate of the current favourite. And the unexposed [9/2] poke Diamond Rain is obviously very dangerous.
This race has depth.
Honeyball has five of the 16 in the Badger Beer, including last year’s winner Blackjack Magic, and he is a best-priced 8s to repeat the feat.
Six of the 16 in here have other options this week.
Lord Accord is a general 7s chance and that wouldn’t be a price I’d be rushing to lay.
He is in good form, he will enjoy the likely ground and is a course winner who finished second to Frodon in this race two years ago off an 8lb higher mark.
No, I wouldn’t lay the 7s. Very solid proposition.
Tea Clipper has been confirmed to run at Exeter on Friday.
With 32 five-day entries, only two of which could go elsewhere this week, we could easily have a maximum field of 23 for the 70k November Handicap on Saturday.
It is 9s the field, which brings in Valvano, and I must say I can fully see the case for him.
He hails from a stable in red-hot form, he is unexposed, he probably just about ran a career best off this mark over an extended 1m2f at York last time – he stuck on well enough there – and the distaff side of his pedigree gives you hope he will stay 1m4f (he is by Night Of Thunder but dam stayed 1m6f).
I don’t like talking up the top of the market as a rule but Master Builder is also a very likely lad for this task.
In fact, the more I look at Master Builder’s soft ground-form, his run at York last time, his potential,. the step down to 1m4f, and the form of the yard, then I have to say yes.
I simply could not put you off him at 8s either (the 10s in two places went on Tuesday afternoon), and AKBets are that price, too.
EXETER (updated 7.38am Wednesday)
Going: Good
Going stick: 6.9 at 7am Wednesday
Weather: Very light showers possible Wed-Fri
Watering; Don’t know, but probably not from the sounds of it
DONCASTER (updated 7.48am Wednesday)
Going: Soft
Going stick: N/A – why not?
Weather: Dry all week
AINTREE (updated 8.39am Wednesday)
Going: Good, good to soft in places; National course: Good to soft, good in places
Going stick: N/A
Weather: Dry all week, possibly odd light shower
Watering; “Selectively watering fences 1-6 in the country. Will review Mildmay on Thursday”
WINCANTON (updated 8.05am Wednesday)
Going: Good
Going stick: 6.2 on 8am Monday
Weather: Dry all week, with the odd light shower
Watering; “Irrigation to be reviewed Thursday. No irrigation taking place on Wednesday.”
DOUBLE ENTRIES FOR THE ITV RACES ON SATURDAY (done before Irish weekend entries are known)
1.09pm Wincanton: Sacre Coeur (won by 20 lengths in a handicap chase on Monday), Beau Balko, Dreaming Blue, Skycutter (second in a three-runner race at Warwick on Tuesday)
1.20pm Doncaster: Marching Mac (in at Nottingham on Wednesday), Ojw Legacy (entered at Dundalk on Friday)
1.30pm Aintree: Della Casa Lunga, Henry’s Friend (entered overnight at Newbury on Thursday), Magical King, Monmiral (entered overnight at Newbury on Thursday), To Chase A Dream
1.45pm Wincanton: Della Casa Lunga, Hard As Nails, Larchmont Lass, Mermaids Cave, Ooh Betty, Pure Theatre, Space Voyage, Strong Belle
2.05pm Aintree: Beau Balko, Brookie, Caithness, Helnwein
2.23pm Wincanton: Glynn, Peaky Boy
2.40pm Aintree: NONE
NB: Idalgo Bihoue has an entry in early closer on November 16
2.55pm Wincanton: Sacre Coeur (Sacre Coeur and Forever William ran at Plumpton on Monday, with the former winning by 20 lengths in a handicap chase)
NB: Lump Sum is in Greatwood Hurdle on November 17
3.10pm Doncaster: Azahara Palace, Loughville, (Our Golden One ran poorly at Kempton on Monday)
3.30pm Wincanton: Glynn, Copperhead, Gustavian, Riskintheground, Tea Clipper (entered overnight at Exeter on Friday), The Changing Man
3.45pm Doncaster: Azahara Palace, Loughville
This weeks Racing Room podcast features: Intro Chat & Weekend Racing Review (0-8mins) Rory Campbell’s Betting Syndicate: Take 3…
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