By Tony Calvin - 9 December 2024
There is just the one early-closer race on Saturday, Cheltenham’s Nyetimber December Gold Cup at 1.50pm, which features the usual 2m4f handicap chase brigade.
Sponsors Nyetimber are apparently a world-renowned English sparkling wine producer, so little wonder I had never heard of them.
Actually, this could be a rare example of racing sponsorship increasing brand awareness.
My address for freebie deliveries (which I will probably pass on as Christmas presents, as fizzy doesn’t really cut it for me) is available on request, Nyetimber….
These Cheltenham handicap chases tend to feature the same old course regulars, re-locking horns, and it includes last year’s winner Fugitif among the 14 confirmations at noon on Monday, for a race that could have housed 18 on the day itself.
There were only 28 in the race on Sunday, of which four were trained in Ireland, with Paul Nicholls responsible for five (he has left in top weight Stage Star and Il Ridoto)
So the numbers are already pretty poor for a 125k pot – especially as it promises to be natural, good to soft ground – though there were no real surprise no-shows of horses trading at [14/1] or less in the early ante-post market.
None in fact.
The aforementioned Fugitif ranged from 5s to 7s in that ante-post market, vying for favoritism with Dan Skelton’s Madara.
One firm actually went 8s the latter, when 5s was the general price, which normally means their odds-compilers fancied it….
Madara and Fugitif were both eye-catchers, in differing styles, when finishing fourth and fifth respectively to runaway scorer Il Ridoto in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, but let’s start with last year’s winner first.
Richard Hobson’s horse got dropped 2lb for that run last month and that means he is actually 1lb lower than when narrowly beating Il Ridoto in this race last season, which makes him of obvious interest.
His fifth last month, his first run since a wind op and Aintree last April, was less of an obvious “tracker” (that word should be banned but it works here) run than that of Madara, but the 9yo is clearly a big player off this mark.
He has an excellent body of work in big 2m4f handicaps around here, and the likely good to soft/soft ground – see the ground and weather below – is perfect for him.
And he has won second time out in the last two seasons. The stable could be in better form, but we are dealing with a very small sample there, so that wouldn’t concern me.
Madara is equally obvious, perhaps more so, hence his best price of [13/2], though 5s in places (the same as Fugitif on both counts).
Having his first start for Dan Skelton, no-one missed the promise of his strong-finishing fourth in the Paddy Power.
Well, maybe the handicapper did, as he dropped him 1lb for it when the run had “leave him on the same mark” written all over it, for all he was beaten just shy of eight lengths.
Skelton won’t be moaning about the handicap treatment his horses get, that’s for sure.
The horse also won the 2m handicap chase on this card for Sophie Leech last season, and he is the youngest horse in here as a 5yo, too.
Lots to like here for a horse unexposed over the trip, and Harry Skelton is already jocked up (Tristan Durrell rode him last month).
Nicholls wouldn’t have been too happy with the handicapper after his Il Ridoto got shunted up to a mark of 149, even though the horse won the Paddy Power by 4 ½ lengths from Ga Law when 3lb out of the handicap.
That was probably as harsh as the assessor could have been and it takes Il Ridoto up a career-high mark, so he will have his work cut out to confirm the form with all those who finished behind him and re-oppose here: the runner Ga Law, Madara and Fugitif etc.
He is now 6lb higher than when beaten a short-head by Fugitif n this race last year, though perhaps it would be unwise to dismiss him on a weights-and-measure basis given how good he was here last month and how well he performs here.
His price of around 8s confirms that. 3lb claimer Freddie Gingell is already jocked up again, with Harry Cobden on Stage Star.
Willie Mullins’ record in the UK outside of the Festivals would and should scare no-one but he has left in James Du Berlais, a runner-up in the Topham off a 3lb lower mark in April and who fell when we last saw him at Punchestown in May.
I couldn’t see how he was going when he fell 5 out as that section has been airbrushed out of the Racing Post replay, as one of the horses he brought down was fatally injured.
What a nonsense, that is.
We are all adults, and we see worse on our news (the Sky and Channel 4 versions anyway) on a daily basis.
At the very least give us an option to, with a warning attached.
He was travelling well enough, just off the pace, after he took the sixth-last, anyway. He is 3lb higher than his Irish mark here.
Gavin Cromwell and John McConnell didn’t confirm their horses, but Noel Meade did and his Galway Plate winner Pinkerton is interesting enough off a mark of 147.
That is also his Irish mark and he finished a good second to Found A Fifty at Down Royal last month, and the winner when on to take the Grade 2 Fortria at Navan afterwards.
However, you may need to hold off for now if looking to back him.
Meade told the Sporting Life website:
“He’s a probable runner. He’s got to work in the morning so we’ll see how that goes, but if the work goes good, there’s a good chance he’ll run.
“He’s in good form, I hope. We just want to get some blood tests done, as his blood was a bit off a fortnight ago. I’m hoping it’s back to normal.”
Nicholls took out Hitman, Ginny’s Destiny and Outlaw Peter, but he has left Stage Star in here off 12st.
Given the form of the yard at the time (most needing the run), his reappearance fourth in the Old Roan was a decent enough effort and he has been dropped 1lb for it.
A mark of 162 leaves him vulnerable, though it has to be said his win in the Paddy Power off 155 here last season (when overcoming a howler) probably deserves that current rating.
You’d hope the numbers would pretty much hold up now – especially given the likely ground – so I’d personally wait for the final field, and maybe an extra place and more competitive prices (traditional each way terms are 1/4 1,2,3, but some may offer four places now).
What I would say is you can make a decent pace map, and the forward-goers are as follows: Stage Star, Gemirande and Il Ridoto (prominent).
And, even with Stage Star in the race, nothing in the line-up is out of the handicap, with recent Ascot winner Gemirande, Guard Your Dreams and Grandeur D’Ame (beat Ga Law at Chepstow in October and was a 10-length fourth in this race last season) all on the minimum 10st 2lb.
An ideal racing weight, as they say….
Others that were confirmed include recent Newbury scorer Le Patron, Plate Festival winner Shakem Up’arry (he is owned by Harry Redknapp, if you don’t watch ITV Racing and didn’t know….but he is also jocked up in a veterans’ chase on Friday), Sure Touch and In Excelsis Deo, who could well win if putting in an error-free round.
IF.
Right, I think I have mentioned all 14 horses still in the race and more will follow when the prices trickle through. Expect an update around noon on Tuesday.
I have just updated the double-entries though, and they are very important this week.
See below.
A very healthy 26 entries for this 50k 3m handicap chase, and only six have other alternatives, so it is not out of the realms of possibility we could get a maximum field of 20.
Rather unlikely, but you never know, I may have to dust off my “balloted out” section of my column for Saturday.
The first firm I saw price this up made Cruz Control the jolly at 5s, just ahead of last year’s winner Forward Plan and Gaboriot at 6s.
They are now available at 6s, 8s and 7s respectively if you shop around.
I don’t have a betting opinion on this race at the moment. I suspect you will get better prices and place terms come the day if the numbers hold up, without risking doing your ante-post money in cold blood for a no-show.
Libberty Hunter was the early favourite at [11/4] when the betting first opened, closely followed by Saturday’s Tingle Creek faller Master Chewy at [7/2].
But they are now [7/2] joint favourites if you cherry pick in the marketplace.
Nothing much more to add at this stage really.
The decision to put on a Listed mares’ hurdle at Doncaster, and a mares’ handicap hurdle at Cheltenham on the same afternoon (and both on ITV, too) could have backfired, as eight of the 10 entries here are also in that race at Cheltenham.
I am surprised anyone priced it up, but the first firm I saw do so went [11/10] Kateira, with her Skelton stablemates West Balboa [9/4] and Take No Chances at [9/2].
Those prices were pretty much copied by the outfits that followed, and it does seem the Skelton trio have a fair stranglehold on this 35k pot. West Balboa and Take No Chances are now [11/4] and [6/1] in a place, though.
The two that don’t have other possible engagements this week are Gale Mahler and Fireball Frenzy, priced at [9/2] and 66s respectively.
Four of the 13 could go elsewhere , so one firm went these prices about the top five in their betting: [5/2], [3/1], [4/1], [9/2] and [5/1].
Hardly generous given there are eight others in the race at this stage.
The remarkable Skyjack Hijack, whose last six wins on the spin has seen him rise from 97 to 138 in the ratings, topped their betting at [5/2] but he was available at 3s elsewhere.
The 3s was taken but he is still [11/4].
He looks very much the one to beat again, even with his 3lb penalty, and he also boasts the best speed figure credentials, too.
I wouldn’t lay [11/4] about Jennie Candlish’s charge, even in a field of lightly-raced and unexposed rivals.
I’ve seen a story on Irishracing.com (Wednesday morning) that said the following, though.
Candlish’s assistant Alan O’Keeffe said: “We just need to speak to the course and see what the ground is going to be like as it was a speculative entry really.
“I thought it would be a lot more competitive than it actually is. We’ll make a decision after we’ve weighed it all up. The ground will help us decide, whether it is good to soft or staying on the easier side. If it is, we wouldn’t go.
“We just thought for a Grade Two, and he doesn’t have a penalty (actually he does), it was worth an entry.
“We had said he’d get a break but we were tracking the entries and couldn’t believe what we were seeing, so we gave him the entry but he’s far from certain to run. We’ll do what is right by the horse.
“You’d have expected something from Ireland, maybe Gordon (Elliott) or Willie (Mullins) might have sent something, but I think they are all going for the Challow Hurdle in a couple of weeks which is maybe why it has cut up.
“It wasn’t on our radar to enter until we had a look and then we thought it was worth one.”
There won’t be a maximum field of 20 in this Donny handicap, as there are just 17 entries.
Prices were slow to come through on Monday for this race – unsurprisingly, given 12 of the 17 are double-entered, so this race could cut up dramatically – and, rather surprisingly, one of the doubly-entered dozen, Valgrand, was made the [2/1] favourite by the first firm up.
The step down in trip will suit him but a mark of 139 looks quite punchy and he is also in a 0-140 at Cheltenham on Friday.
Little wonder he is now available at 3s, but even that is a price that wouldn’t interest me either, ante-post.
UPDATE 10am Wednesday: Valgrand and To Chase A Dream, the first and second favourites, have been confirmed to run on Friday. Of course, they may not run, but they are scheduled to.
Skycutter is entered overnight at Warwick on Thursday, so he is a very unlikely runner.
The ones that aren’t doubly-entered are Afadil, Attacca, Favour And Fortune, Lemoncello and Pembroke, though Afadil and Favour Fortune are in the 125k handicap hurdle a week on Saturday (this race is worth 50k), as are Altobelli and Norman Fletcher.
So maybe tread carefully on those.
There were two that interested me here.
The 20s chance Homme Public has slipped to a winnable mark – by running over a probably unfavourable 2m4f on his last three starts – but, annoyingly, he is also in at Doncaster on Friday.
He has actually been confirmed for that race on Wednesday, which was surprising.
This is surely more his trip, as all his best form has been at and around the minimum trip, and the course winner has a lot going for him.
I nearly broke my doubly-entered rule for him at 20s, but I’ll stand firm (good job I did).
Lemoncello is 20s in three places, and a general 16s (in eight places). The 16s is fine, but no lower, as there are a fair few negatives here, as I am about to explain.
Granted, there is a lot of guesswork involved here, as he is a French recruit who blew out on his stable debut at Bangor last month, being pulled up in the race won by Might I.
But he was a bit of boyo there and pulled far too hard to do himself justice, so maybe they will try some headgear here to calm him down.
And he didn’t run in a tongue-tie there either, which the Racing Post and Timeform both report he ran in in all his races in France (where we had, artificially perhaps, impressive form figures of 2122321).
Perhaps that had a bearing, too?
I have no idea myself but it could have.
He got dropped 2lb for the Bangor run, and it sounds like the stable rate him as a bit better than a 120-rated horse. And maybe the step down to 2m will suit this free-going sort.
But they pulled him out on good to soft ground at Hereford last April so you have to worry that they will do the same here and wait for more testing ground.
It is soft, good to soft in places, on the hurdles track at the moment at Doncaster – it has already dried from soft on Monday – but there is very little rain forecast.
Against that, Timeform called it as good when he was pulled out at Hereford, and the horse actually had winning form on good to firm ground in France, as well as heavy.
Someone tell the bang-in-form Venetia that please.
All things considered, he rates a modest win-only bet at 20s or 16s (no lower), for all there are the doubts expressed above.
If he runs and this race cuts up, you are looking at a horse trading in single figures, so the risk to reward is there.
However, be aware he may not run though if the ground continues to dry out.
That’s a very real risk, so hopefully the showers are heavier than forecast.
By the way, a brief note.
I am aware the changing, dynamic, nature of my columns, with plenty of updates, is perhaps not ideal for some, who may miss revised copy and betting suggestions (which may be a very good thing….).
However, I think it just about works – this column is unique in that regard – and it certainly keeps those readers coming fresh to the column kept bang up to date.
Hard work and attention to detail is rarely wasted.
Well, most of the time anyway.
This may be an exception….
This is the mares’ handicap hurdle I referenced above, and 14 of the 24 in here have alternative entries.
In the early Monday betting, Joyeuse was the early clear favourite at 4s, with 10s and bigger the rest, despite also being in at Windsor on Sunday over 2m.
Joyeuse is lightly-raced and fairly handicapped off 119, but 4s looks short enough, all things considered. A
nd one firm are even going as short as 3s.
Endless Escape, 16s in a place, would have really interested me had she not also been in at Windsor on Sunday. Similarly the Skelton pair of Kateira and Take No Chances are also in that Donny race earlier in the day.
Georgi Girl has been the one for early money (probably pennies at this stage) with the 10s taken. Her price now ranges from 5s to 7s.
Good luck.
CHELTENHAM (two-day meeting)
Going – Good to soft: Cross Country: Soft, good to soft in places
Going stick readings – 6.1; Cross Country 5.4
Weather: Very light showers all week
DONCASTER (two-day meeting)
Going – Chase: Good to soft, good in places: Hurdles: Good to soft, soft in places
Going stick reading – Hurdle: 5.6: Chase 5.9
Weather: Very light showers all week
BANGOR (Friday on ITV) – all races will now be run over hurdles as chase course is damaged (inspection 7.30am Thursday)
Going: Soft, heavy in places (Small pockets of standing water in places)
Going stick reading – N/A
Weather: Dry; Light showers Thursday and Friday
1.50pm Cheltenham: Shakem Up’Arry (entered overnight at Cheltenham on Friday)
2.05pm Doncaster: Ballygriffincottage (entered overnight at Cheltenham on Friday), , Beachcomber, Gaboriot, Our Power (entered overnight at Cheltenham on Friday), Raffle Ticket (entered overnight at Cheltenham on Friday), Snipe
2.25pm Cheltenham: DoyouknowhatImean, Tedley
2.40pm Doncaster (8 of 10 double-entered): Kateira, Molto Bene, Ottizzini, Pretending, Royale Margaux, Take No Chances, West Balbao, Wyenot (all of these are also entered in mares’ handicap in 3.35pm at Cheltenham)
3.00pm Cheltenham: Aboutdamntime, Ace Of Spades, Excello, Histrionic
3.15pm Doncaster: Arqoob (entered overnight at Doncaster on Friday), Balboa (entered overnight at Cheltenham on Friday), Brucio, Deploy To Spy, Homme Public (entered overnight at Doncaster on Friday), Lily Du Berlais, Skycutter (entered overnight at Warwick on Thursday), To Chase A Dream (entered overnight at Cheltenham on Friday), Valgrand (entered overnight at Cheltenham on Friday)
3.35pm Cheltenham: Ah Whisht, Brucio, Endless Escape, Joyeuse, Kateira, Lily Du Berlais, Mavis Pike, Molto Bene, Ottizzini, Pretending, Royale Margaux, Take No Chances, West Balbao, Wyenot
This weeks Racing Room podcast features: Intro Chat & Weekend Racing Review (0-8mins) Rory Campbell’s Betting Syndicate: Take 3…
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