TONY CALVIN: A horse to make a name for himself at Newbury on Friday

1.55pm Newbury – 7/2 Johnnywho to make a name for himself

We can live with the occasional small-field novices’ chase if they are as good as this.

And this is a cracker.

It is not often you see a 142-rated novice being the [16/1] outsider in a race of this nature in this country, even one carrying a 5lb penalty (as recent Wincanton Grade 2 winner Boombawn does), but that is the class of race we are dealing with here.

A rarity.

You can obviously make a case for all six of these at their respective prices, but I was hugely impressed by Johnnywho’s chasing debut at Carlisle and I was very surprised to see three firms (though effectively one bookmaking outfit) stick him in at [9/2] on Wednesday morning.

That soon went.

And then so did the 4s later on that day.

Disappointing but, on a quiet day, I am happy to play at the general [7/2] to reduced stakes.

When the value ebbs away, so should your punting levels. For all he clearly isn’t a massive shortener, it wouldn’t be a massive surprise if he went off favourite.

Now, I wouldn’t normally be a massive fan of the stable (though they have upped their game a touch this season) or this type of race, but I am happy to make an exception here.

Johnnywho didn’t really kick on as expected as a novice hurdler after a two-length fourth to Captain Teague in the Challow here last December (The Jukebox Man a neck ahead of him in third, with Masaccio 7 ½ lengths behind) – so this is quite the re-match – but he looked a natural over fences at Carlisle last month.

Initially put in as in as the odds-on favourite there, they struggled to give him away in the market beforehand and he went off at 2s in that three-runner race (and touched as big as [9/4]).

However, you could have not wished for a more smoother or accomplished chasing debut (though he won his sole point) as he eased to a 1 ½ length defeat of Bugise Seagull, who he also re-locks horns against here.

Of course, this is another level up, but I’d genuinely have him as the slight favourite in this, for all his hurdling exploits give him a bit to find with The Jukebox Man and Captain Teague.

The Jukebox Man was the best of these over hurdles, trading at a heartbreaking [1.03] – for his backers, at least – when picked up late in the Albert Bartlett before also finishing runner-up at Aintree.

No result would surprise me but Johnnywho at [7/2] is the bet.

2.30pm Newbury – 3/1 Galop Des Chasse the one to beat

I think the market has got this pretty well sussed, with Galop De Chasse and Heltenham topping the market, with 6s (Golden Son) and bigger the rest.

Heltenham has the course credentials (unbeaten in three starts here) but preference would be for Galop Des Chasse, from a stable that won this race in 2018 and 2021.

The horse is actually also unbeaten here, having beaten Kandoo Kid (now rated 22lb higher) over course and distance last November, and he shaped pretty well when second of four at Wetherby at the start of the month. That looked a decent heat, which is why he was edged up 1lb after being beaten over 3 lengths.

That came at a time when the stable was having a quiet time, but they shouted their well-being from the rooftops last weekend.

Galop Des Chasse picked up a “nasty wound which took a long time to heal” after winning here last November, so perhaps they eased him back gently at Wetherby,

He is priced at a general 3s, and I thought that very fair, the [10/3] in the marketplace being taken on Wednesday.

Perhaps they may consider going from the front with him again here (he made all when winning here last season) but there looks to be plenty of pace in this, so maybe not.

He is the one to beat.

One of the pace angles, Editeur Du Gite, was taken out due to a bad scope on Friday morning.

3.05pm Newbury – 2/1 Langer Dan to prove he is a spring horse no longer?

I wouldn’t fall off my chair if the 33s outsider Flight Deck won this, but I am not going to pretend this four-runner hurdle holds any betting appeal whatsoever.

Now the handicap route has been closed, it’ll be interesting to see if Langer Dan can show any worthwhile form before March.

I suspect he will be rather more forward but a few firms disagree at 2s, though they are probably just tracking the precarious, illiquid exchange market (3.2 there, for pennies).

A spring horse no longer maybe, now handicap marks are probably not a consideration,, but it is not something I want to bet on.

And this is Langer Dan’s first attempt at 3m to add a further doubt.

Strong Leader is the general [10/11] jolly, with Monmiral at [13/2].

3.40pm Newbury – 12/1 Annsam of most interest in a very trappy race

Eight of the 12 in here wear cheekpieces, and. in the case of Vee Dancer, for the first time – see below for Ryan Potter’s stats.

I am not sure why I pointed that out, as it means absolutely nothing.

Well, actually I do, as I was struggling for filling copy, as I thought this a pretty nasty 3m handicap hurdle puzzle to solve.

Sure, you can make a good case for the obviously in-form horses – most clearly Ffos Las winner Woodie Flash, who heads the betting at 3s – but Annsam was interesting enough.

The problem here is you are second-guessing what connections are doing with him.

Are they simply getting him primed for a return to chasing – maybe at Ascot next month – and, if so, this could simply be a means to another end.

He finished third in a 2m4f handicap hurdle at this meeting in November 2021 before winning over fences at Ascot the following month.

I certainly thought he ran far, far better than the bare facts of his Cheltenham hurdles run last time – he was chinned by 28 lengths, 12^th of 13, when beating only a horse effectively pulled up – and he got dropped 2lb for it.

He also has a good record at this track, but I am very wary as to what the actual expectations of connections will be here.

Sometimes, it pays to be a cynic, especially when the early 16s has already been trimmed into 12s (early money tends to be mean very little as regards intention).

No bet.

Classic Concorde has just come out with a bruised foot, so we are down to 11.

1.20pm Newbury – 33/1 Holywell has tons of improvement in her but it is needed

I was going to leave it there but this 10-runner juvenile fillies’ Listed hurdle deserves to be on the box in place of the four-runner Grade 2 3m hurdle (same sponsors so it is disappointing it didn’t happen, if understandable, I guess).

This race is an absolute corker, with six winners on show, and the four maidens are all interesting in their own right (one of those, Miss Altea Blue is the early favourite, in fact).

Anyone from the Holywell estate in Watford, where I was brought up, can guess what horse caught my eye here.

By the way, it’s a 1.01 poke some old-timer mentions on X that they remember the horse of the same name winning at the Festival and then the Grade 1 at Aintree little 10 years ago.

Let it go, chaps….

Now, this Holywell version has an awful lot to find form-wise in this but the promise of her fifth in a maiden hurdle at Ludlow was there for all to see, and I wouldn’t have been overly-surprised if the stewards had given the jockey and trainer a tug afterwards.

The second, third and fourth have all been beaten since, despite running okay in defeat.

Juveniles from this yard learn quickly on the job (that was her first run in any sphere), and this half-sister to the stable’s useful juvenile 2021-22 hurdler Balko Saint could outrun her odds here.

Given her Ludlow level of form, I was hoping for a bit bigger than the opening 20s with one firm (no others have priced it up yet), but that was probably optimistic. Maybe other firms will be more generous when they go up, so keep a look-out.

UPDATE as at 1.30pm Thursday:  Holywell is 33s in three places, and she is worth a small each way bet at those odds if you can access them.

There are obviously plenty of likely sorts in here, not least the James Owen pair.

His Ambiente Amigo was rated 95 on the Flat and she did it very nicely in a hood at Newcastle – granted she was [1/4] there – though that is left off here.

Good luck on a very quiet punting day. For me, anyway.

BET

Johnnywho at [7/2] in 1.55pm at Newbury. Available in 16 places.

NB: The 33s Holywell in 1.20pm is of interest each way (available in three places)

NEWBURY – GOING/WEATHER – updated 7.15am Friday

GOING: Chase: Good to soft; Hurdle: Soft, good to soft in places

GOING STICK READINGS: Chase: 4.2 Hurdle: 3.8 (as at 6am Friday)

WEATHER: Dry and sunny (+9)

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Ryan Potter cheekpieces 0-7 since 2021 (but two seconds and a third) – Vee Dancer, 3.40pm Newbury

PACE MAPS (manually done):

1.55pm Newbury: Bugise Seagull, The Jukebox Man

2.30pm Newbury: Le Patron?, Sir Pyscho (prom), Golden Son (prom), Galop De Chasse, Scarface (prom), La Domaniale (prom),

3.05pm Newbury: Flight Deck?, Strong Leader?

3.40pm Newbury: Annsam, Largy Poet, Hardy Boy (prom), Astronomic View, Vee Dancer

TRAINERFORM (manually done; ITV races only)

Good: Paul Nicholls, Charlie Longsdon, Alan King, Venetia Williams (very good), Joe Tizzard, Anthony Honeyball, Nicky Henderson, Olly Murphy, Hobbs and White

Fair: Dan Skelton, Jonjo & AJ O’Neill, Ben Pauling, Gary and Josh Moore, Jane Williams, Deborah Cole

Moderate:  Harry Derham (for him, with a beaten 4-7 chance on Thursday), Evan Williams (certainly in strike rate terms), Ryan Potter (small sample and two have been placed)

Don’t know: Polly Gundry, David Brace, Sue Gardner (all four runners have been huge prices)