TONY CALVIN: A 20/1 chance worth another go at Newbury on Saturday

I presume the powers-that-be have sidelined the Premier Racing concept.

Of course, we didn’t really need it in the first place, as ITV Racing basically dictated that anyway, and they are focusing on nine races from Ayr and Newbury on Saturday.

However, we also have Newmarket and Chester in the prime-time afternoon slots this weekend, not to mention Gowran Park and Navan, and it is Congestion City once again.

When a group of us watch racing on Saturdays in the local boozer, we do so on Sky Sports Racing and Racing TV channels (on a big split screen, in fact), and you regularly don’t know whether you are coming or going half the time.

And that is before the drink kicks in….

Six afternoon meetings on Saturday means the sport tend to get lost in itself, and it must have a big negative effect on turnover.

Thank god we have the ever-popular Keir Starmer and his missus in our corner, though….

1.15pm Ayr – 7/1 Aragon Castle and Revich the pick of the prices

Revich has pretty much struggled to put one leg in front of the other this year, but, to be fair, his starting prices have ranged between 10s and 80s, and he has come down 10lb in the weights.

And he now attempts to gain his third win in this race, after successes in 2021 and 2023, and he was only beaten two necks in this in 2022, too.

Of course, the bookmakers know this as well, but the general 8s in the marketplace is still fair. I’ll have a saver on him.

Aragon Castle was not given a great ride at York last time, so I’d be inclined to upgrade that sixth. Unfortunately, the handicapper appears to agree, as he hasn’t even dropped him 1lb for that run, or indeed his earlier fifth over 1m2f at Goodwood, a race in which he shaped like a bit of a non-stayer.

He made all when very impressive at Hamilton three starts ago and I’d be very much in favour of PJ McDonald going from the front again here from stall three. Or, at the very least, riding him much more prominently.

He is available at [7/1] each way, four places, in five places, and that is the best bet in the race.

By the way, it looks like remaining good ground at Ayr (see going, going stick readings and weather below)

1.30pm Newbury – 9/1 Desperate Hero the one, and without the favourite, too

Annaf is the obvious class angle after not getting a clear run of things in the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock last time – his first run for a good while – and, to be honest, I wouldn’t be a in a rush to lay him at the top price of [10/3] in the market.

There is rain around, so I am working on the basis of at least good to soft. This horse handles even more testing ground, anyway, if required.

And looking at the Newbury pictures on Sky Sports Racing just now, it may turn soft.

However, Desperate Hero and Seven Questions are arguably more even more attractively priced at 9s and 22s respectively.

The latter wears blinkers for the first time (see trainer George Scott’s record below) and he is clearly overpriced on his early-season form – he has run very poorly since though, hence the headgear – and the former is the more solid of the two after a cracking sixth in the Flying Five at the Curragh last week.

I had a stab at him at three-figures that day and, and down in class here, I reckon the ground-versatile, course and distance winner is primed to run a big race here.

I’m going to have a small bet on him at [9/1] – available in four places – but I think the premier punt is each way about him without the favourite Annaf.

Of course, that option will not be available to all – so it can’t be an “official” tip, as such (my aim is to give the best pointers in each race, as with a few double-priced winners at Donny)- but that’s the play if you can access 5s of bigger each way, three places.

He is 6s in a place, win-only, without Annaf, as this column goes live.

Personally, I’ll also probably do a reverse forecast Annaf and Desperate Hero, too.

1.50pm Ayr – 9/2  Enfjaar the pick of the prices

I’ll keep this brief, as I wouldn’t have a bet at the current prices, but Enfjaar at 4s (available in 10 places) looks the one if you want an interest. He is also available at [9/2] in a place.

A hugely impressive winner of the John Smith’s Cup, he would have won easily with a half-decent ride at Goodwood next time (the handicapper put him up 3lb for that defeat) and he wasn’t ideally positioned throughout at York last time.

The suspicion remains that he is a fair bit better than he has been able to show so far, though of course this is a very decent and deep field for a Listed race.

2.05pm Newbury – 20/1 Spaceport the pick but it is weather watch for dangerous Youthful King

I have no problem with Waxing Gibbous being the 4s favourite in here (generally 7/2] , but 22/1 Youthful King and 20/1 Spaceport are definite outsiders to consider.

Youthful King is viewed more of an all-weather horse, and he won very snugly on the sand at Lingfield last time, but he has very good turf form on decent ground, so he is undoubtedly overpriced at 22s and the general 20s.

The Luke Dace stable is in good nick, too.

However, the issue with Youthful King– as with Flaming Rib at Donny last Sunday (I couldn’t believe they ran him on heavy ground) – is that I wouldn’t want to be backing him if they had a lot of rain which turned the ground good to soft or worse.

The worst-case scenario is they let him take their chance, and he goes for the inevitable walk in the market.

And that is a possibility looking at the forecasts (see below), and that rain falling art Newbury right now.

Spaceport is a personal project that has gone badly wrong on his last two starts, but on each occasion he has gone too hard, so I am willing to give him another chance.

He briefly looked as if he had a winning chance at Haydock last time when hitting the front – he dipped below [5/2] in running – but the early exertions immediately took their toll, and he dropped away tamely. He simply sat too near a scorching pace there.

The first five home at Haydock were late closers who benefitted from the pace collapse, so I genuinely think that run is eminently forgivable.

Down to a mark of 90 now, I am willing to give him another go to confirm the positive impression to made when winning in a good time at Sandown three starts ago, though another concern is that he may be best in small fields.

And I obviously don’t want to see him sweating badly again in the preliminaries.

However, if he gets to the front from stall two (see pace map below) and settles much better, then the general 20s, including with AKBets, is worth a small win-only investment. He could well drift though, so keep an eye out on that front.

Youthful King is a player if any more significant rain stays away, but that looks unlikely at the moment.

I’ll update about him on X on Saturday morning.

2.25pm Ayr – 20/1 Rock Opera has his ground now and could be well drawn

The Ayr Silver and Gold Cups may be the biggest betting races of the day, but the big-field sprint handicaps really didn’t do it for me on first viewing.

And neither did this race on the second and third inspections.

It is time to wind your neck in if Summerghand each-way is on the end of your typing fingers, but Rock Opera at 20s (in two places) is half-interesting, off a mark of 80 and with the ground now in his favour.

We may even see a bit of good firm creeping into the going description on Saturday and that will suit him.

There was a fair bit of money for him last weekend before the rain scuppered his chance at Doncaster and he was withdrawn, and he definitely has his chance on his early summer form. And his draw in four could be a good place to be looking at the pace map.

It all looks a bit of a lottery though, and maybe a postcode lottery too, bearing in mind those draw considerations.

2.40pm Newbury – Nothing doing with Mustazeed still set to run on Friday

The fact that is [9/2] the field here tallied with my assessment of the race.

Namely, it is a very tricky 75k 1m2f handicap, indeed.

At the time of publishing Mustazeed is still down to run in Newbury’s 5.15pm on Friday, so bear that in mind – I would have been interested in him at 20s if he came here instead, with the stable having their first winner in yonks on Wednesday – but I couldn’t see a betting angle into the race. So you aren’t even getting a throwaway choice….

3pm Ayr – 12/1 Maw Lam has a massive chance IF she starts on terms

Another trappy race but I imagine quite a few people will see this race in the same light.

Namely, if Maw Lam gets away even adequately then she will take a fair bit of stopping.

As I always say though, “if” is the most expensive word in betting.

There is little doubt in my mind that she is most talented horse in here, if perhaps the most flawed.

She clearly has always had an issue with the stalls, and her tardy starts, but she has still run some extraordinary races, not least her third in the Queen Mary.

I’ll probably have a few quid on her if I can access that 12s in a place (she is a general 10s, including with AKBets), even if there is massive blow-out potential after she had a bad experience at Doncaster.

3.15pm Newbury – 8/1 Symbol Of Strength is the each-way call, with 33s Star Anthem an outsider to consider

It is firmly odds-on that either Shadow Of Light or Powerful Glory wins the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes – they are both best-priced at [5/2] – but I wouldn’t be so sure.

I think it is more open than those odds suggest and I’d rather be a backer of Symbol Of Strength each way at 8s (in three places) than siding with the jollies combined.

He was only a head behind Shadow Of Light when third in the Gimcrack and he did it well at Kempton last time, form which puts him alongside the Godolphin horse and ahead of the rest.

You have to fear the highly-regarded Pontefract winner Powerful Glory, though, and Star Anthem looks big enough at a general 33s too, especially with the stable swinging into form very nicely. He is 28s each way, four places, with one mob.

3.35pm Ayr – 12/1 Billyjoh at a very big push

The biggest betting race of the day, but I imagine bookmakers always fancy their chances of getting the better of the punters in 25-runner 6f handicaps.

Don’t you?

Mind you, the layers copped a cold when American Affair was backed from 10s to 4s and won the Portland by the width of a cigarette paper last weekend. The winner turns out again here and is a general 6s chance, even though 3lb wrong under a 5lb penalty.

I am not going to waffle on and then come to a no-bet conclusion here, as I found it unfathomable, so I’ll park it there.

If you want a token selection, and it’d be as token as you will get, then the 12s about Billyjoh in a place looks acceptable.

Good luck.

BETS

Aragon Castle at [7/1] each way, four places, in 1.15pm at Ayr (combination is available with five bookmakers)

Spaceport win-only at the general [20/1] in 2.05pm at Newbury (available with 16 bookmakers, including AKBets)

KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FOLLOWING WHEN MARKETS APPEAR/WEATHER BECOMES CLEARER ON SATURDAY

1.30pm Newbury: Desperate Hero Without Annaf (look for 5s and upwards, with each way the ideal bet – currently [6/1] available with one firm win-only

2.05pm Newbury – Youthful King at [22/1] (general 20s) if not too much more rain in next 24 hours. I suspect he will be a non-runner now.

GOING AND WEATHER

AYR

Going: Good

Going stick: 8.2 at 7.25am Friday

Weather:  Dry and bright, 18-19 degrees

NEWBURY (updated 2.15pm Friday)

Going:   Soft after 5mm of rain early on Friday afternoon

Going stick: 5.6 at 6am Friday

Weather:   Saturday morning could see more rain (amounts vary but maybe 7mm)

BALLOTED OUT (money back for ante-post punters)

1.15pm Ayr: Abduction (FR), Naepoint (IRE), Redarna, Sailthisshipalone.

3.35pm Ayr: A Girl Named Ivy (IRE), Abduction (FR), Aberama Gold, Admiral D (IRE), Airman (IRE), Alfa Kellenic, Alfa Whiteburd (IRE), Alpine Sierra (IRE), Alreet Cha (IRE), Aramram (IRE), Baba Reza, Bay Breeze, Be Proud (IRE), Beattie Is Back, Bergerac (IRE), Bishop’s Crown, Blind Beggar (IRE), Braes of Doune, Brian The Snail (IRE), Brooklyn Nine Nine (IRE), Call Me Ginger, Cargin Bhui (IRE), Catherine Chroi (IRE), Cavalier Approach (IRE), Chairmanoftheboard (IRE), Charlie Mason, Classy Al, Cold Stare (IRE), Curious Rover (IRE), Dakota Gold, Danzan (IRE), Dark Vintage (IRE), Dicko The Legend (IRE), Diligent Resdev, Doctor Vuby (IRE), Eden Storm (IRE), Emily Post, Emperor’s Son (IRE), Eternal Sunshine, Eye of Dubai, First Folio, Flowstate (IRE), Flying Fletcher, Garfield Shadow (IRE), Gentle Ellen (IRE), Giselles Izzy (IRE), Glendown (IRE), Grant Wood (IRE), Havana Pursuit, Havana Rum (IRE), Hectic, Heroism (IRE), Hiatus (IRE), Hyperfocus (IRE), Ingra Tor (IRE), International Girl (IRE), Irish Nectar, Jackie Brown (IRE), Jenever, Jenni (IRE), Jonny Concrete (IRE), Judgment Call, Jump The Gun (IRE), Kats Bob, Kelpie Grey, Kings Merchant, Kitai (IRE), Knicks (IRE), Lahab, Lequinto (IRE), Lethal Nymph, Londoner (IRE), Lord Abama (IRE), Lucky Man (IRE), Magical Spirit (IRE), Maharajas Express, Manila Scouse, Mattice, May Blossom, Minnesota Lad (IRE), Mister Sox, Monhammer, Monks Dream (IRE), Monsieur Kodi (IRE), Moon Flight (IRE), Moyola, Mr Wagyu (IRE), Music Society (IRE), Mythical Phoenix (IRE), Nariko (IRE), Never Dark, Oso Rapido (IRE), Pals Battalion (IRE), Parisiac (IRE), Paws For Thought (IRE), Pearle d’Or (IRE), Phoenix of Dreams (IRE), Pockley, Protest Rally (IRE), Quest For Fun, Ramon di Loria (IRE), Reprised, Rhythm N Hooves, Roach Power (IRE), Roberto Caro (IRE), Rock Melody (IRE), Rock Opera, Rory, Roundhay Park, Secret Guest, Sergeant Pep (IRE), Shatin Venture (IRE), She’s A Gambler (IRE), Show Me Show Me, Showhound, Sir Garfield (IRE), Sir Maxi, Sixcor, Slainte Mhath, Sondad, South Parade (IRE), Spirit of Applause, Star of Lady M, Stash The Cash (IRE), Summerghand (IRE), The Caltonian, The Coffee Pod (IRE), The Fixer (IRE), The Good Biscuit, The Ridler, Tiriac, Trilby, Twelfth Knight (IRE), Two Tribes, Tyger Bay, Valentine Catcher, Vantheman (IRE), Venture Capital, Vince L’Amour (IRE), Vintage Clarets, Volterra (IRE), Water of Leith (IRE), Woven, Yaaser (IRE), Ziggy’s Queen (IRE), Zip.

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Jim Goldie cheekpieces 6-53 (since 2016) – Londoner, 2.25pm Ayr

Karl Burke visor 9-179 (2009) – Silky Wilkie, 3.35pm Apr

George Scott blinkers 3-33 (2016) – Seven Questions, 1.30pm Newbury

PACE MAPS (ITV races) – with draws in most important sprint races:

1.15pm Ayr:   Yantarni, Aragon Castle?, Bear Force One?, Stone Soldier?, Revich?

1.50pm Ayr:   Phantom Flight, Hi Royal?, Caviar Heights (prominent), Persica?, Under The Sun?

2.25pm Ayr – Low to middle the best place?:   Bergerac (2), Paws For Though (1), Mr Wagyu (prom – 23), Rhythm N Hooves (prom – 5), Kings Merchant (prom – 6), Lucky Man (10), Sergeant Pep? (17), Never Dark? (18), Curious Rover? (7)

3.00pm Ayr:   Ellaria Sand?, It Ain’t Two, Li Ban?

3.35pm Ayr ) Middle to high the best place?:   Commanche Falls? (12), Northern Express (23), Ramazan (prom – 14), Lethal Levi (20), Jordans Electrics? (17), Pilgrim (25), Glenfinnan (prom -11), King’s Lynn (1), Sergeant Wilko (9)

1.30pm Newbury   Democracy Dilemma (9), Desperate Hero (6), Adaay In Devon (3)

2.05pm Newbury:   Not So Sleepy?, Two Brothers?, Spaceport, Ithaca’s Arrow

2.40pm Newbury:   Bolster, Laafi?, Quietness, Houstonn?

3.15pm Newbury (limited evidence):  Billboard Star? (5), Le Bellota (10), Star Anthem (9); other prominent racers in here, too)

TRAINERFORM (not including Friday’s results):

Excellent: Mark Loughnane, David and Nicola Barron, Dominic Ffrench Davis

Good: Julie Camacho, David O’Meara, Jane Chapple-Hyam, Ed Bethell, Jim Goldie, Ollie Sangster. J A Stack. William Haggas, Henry De Bromhead, Archie Watson, Richard Hughes, Luke Dace (in spite of only three runners and no recent winners, though a scorer earlier in month), Hamal Al Jehani (two recent runners, one winner), Charlie Appleby (very good once again), Clive Cox

Fair:  Iain Jardine, Ian Williams, Andrew Balding, Richard Spencer, Michael Dods, William Knight, Tim Easterby, Kevin Ryan, George Scott, Roger Varian, Hugo Palmer, Donald McCain, John and Sean Quinn, Paul Midgley, Robert Cowell (no winners though), Adrian Keatley, Jessica Macey (no winners though), Raphael Freire, Adrian Nicholls, Brian Ellison. John and Thady Gosden, David Evans, Mick Appleby, Rae Guest (borderline good with so few runners), Jack Channon, Brian Meehan, Rod Millman, Charlie Fellowes, George Baker, Hughie Morrison, Michael and David Easterby, Tom Ward, Charlie Johnston, David Menuisier, Gary and Josh Moore, William Muir and Chris Grassick, Simon and Ed Crisford, James Tate, Marcus Tregoning, Eve Johnson Houghton, Sylvester Kirk, John Ryan, George Boughey (14-1 winner on Thursday, and just had another on Friday, but a fair few have been running moderately)

Moderate: Richard Fahey, Karl Burke, Richard Hannon, Craig Lidster, Katie Scott (though a 14-1 winner). Charles Hills, Ed Walker, Harry Eustace (though a very welcome winner on Wednesday)