AK Latest, Horse Racing

By Tony Calvin - 7 October 2024

TONY CALVIN: A 16/1 chance could be the pick of the home contingent in Cesarewitch

ITV continue to deliver on the live coverage front

ITV Racing are not going to die wondering this week, as they are scheduled to show a colossal 19 races on Friday and Saturday.

You can say what you want about the quality of their content – I genuinely don’t watch enough to have a balanced view, albeit I occasionally given an unbalanced one, especially after a few ales – but they certainly deliver on the quantity front, and well done to them for now showing the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar next month.

Most UK punters and viewers tend to shun this meeting, but it may be different this year with City Of Troy going for the Classic.

On to the more immediate matters in hand, though.

There are mixed forecasts as to how much rain each of the three featured tracks – Newmarket, York and Chepstow – get in the next two to three days, so I’d tread carefully until we know the likely state of the ground. See below for the latest news.

I was going to bin the ante-post column this week, given the uncertainty, and I make no apologies for restating my belief that punters are largely better off waiting until the final fields are known, when more competitive prices, and enhanced place terms in the main, are introduced.  There is no point lying about it.

And, of course, waiting carries no risk of doing your cods in cold blood with no-shows. See the double-entries below.

Clearly, there are generous prices available on occasions – it was a bit galling to get 33s about Poniros in the Cambridgeshire, only to see him go off as the [6/1] favourite and run a shocker – but the percentage call is often to wait.

I know the double-entries section of this column is popular though, while I will focus on the Cesarewitch in this column, as it’ll be the biggest betting race of the week by a distance.

3.40pm Newmarket – the Cesarewitch has just 14 UK-based five-day entries

There were 59 in the Ces on Monday morning.

If you shopped around, you could have got 10s about the three co-favourites, Sea Of Sands, Jacovec Cavern and Sixandahalf, while another, Belloccio was actually the 8s market leader in another place.

Willie Mullins was responsible for two of those four (Belloccio and Sea Of Sands), while nephew Emmet trains Jacovec Cavern and Gavin Cromwell handles Sixandahalf.

The Irish have won five of the last six runnings of this race, and first thing on Monday morning they looked well set to continue that run.

But a few have fallen by the wayside since.

After Monday’s confirmation stage at noon, we are down to a mere 28 entries for a race that could have housed a maximum field of 34 on the day.

Willie Mullins didn’t confirm Belloccio, My Lyka, Plontier, Splasiba and Lot Of Joy, and another surprising no-show (certainly according to the betting) was Hamsiyann.

Those who were tracking the decs and had backed the aforementioned Sixandahalf had a sweat on before Cromwell’s horse was a very late acceptor just before midday.

The revised betting now shows that Monday morning’s 10-1 co-favourites have shortened considerably, with Sea Of Sands, Jacovec Cavern and Sixandahalf now trading at best prices of [11/2], 7s and 8s respectively.

Please note that five of these, including Jacovec Cavern and Sixandahalf, are in a 100k Naas 2m early-closer on Sunday, and they confirm for that race on Tuesday.

I’d hold fire on that pair for now, though Sixandahalf is rated 92 after her third in the Irish Cesarewitch last month and she can race off 89 here. She is weighted to go well.

You’d love to be tuned into the Irish betting grapevine to get a headstart on where those two were headed this weekend.

I am not, unfortunately.

UPDATE ON TUESDAY: Sixandahalf and Magellan Strait were not confirmed for Naas on Sunday, but Jacovec Cavern is still in that race, as are Alphonse Le Grande and Falcon Eight.

I suppose I should kick off with Sea Of Sands, as he doesn’t have that Naas weekend option, and he has his Flat debut for Willie off a mark of 97. He is already as low as 4s in places.

That looks a feasible mark based on his back-form in Germany in 2021 and 2022, where he won in Group 3 company and wasn’t disgraced when he was stepped up to the next level.

And he routed a couple of fair sorts on his debut for the yard in a Listowel maiden hurdle about a fortnight ago. He won by 5 lengths, but he could have won by a multiple of that distance had Patrick Mullins moved a muscle.

The layers are rightly wary of the 6yo, for all this is uncharted (or is unchartered?) territory on the Flat as regards his stamina.

In fact, this race is something of a nightmare for the bookies, as every Irish plot merchant going has entries.

Charles Byrnes has his 2022 runaway winner Run For Oscar in here along with Reverend Hubert, and Emmet also has a former winner in the entries, The Shunter (last year in fact), as well as Jacovec Cavern.

And the currently suspended Tony Martin (won this in 2007) is effectively represented by Alphonse Le Grande.

Throw in entries for Dermot Weld (won this with Vintage Crop in 1992), Aidan and Joseph O’Brien, Gordon Elliott (his 136-rated hurdler Ndaawi looks dangerous indeed in here off 92 after his Galway Hurdle second last time, though he is 1lb lower in Ireland) and Gavin Cromwell, and it is a very good job the Irish are taking an interest in this 175k pot.

Without them, we would have just 14 UK entries for a race that could accommodate 34 runners.

Worrying, worrying times.

The English have their fair share of those that like to tread a fine line with the handicapper too, maybe even the odd Baronet among them, and the bullfighting one’s Warmonger has found a new leg since being stepped up to 2m.

16/1 Manx could be the man

However, the horse that stopped him being on a six-timer here, Manxman, is arguably of greater interest at [16/1].

He is “only” 1lb well-in here but he is in the handicap and he has form figures of 11131 over 2m and above, and he was asked to do too much from well off the pace in his Goodwood defeat.

He got there in time that day, but he had a fair job to do getting there and it told late on.

He is only 4lb higher than when beating Warmonger by a comfortable 1 ½ lengths at Southwell last time, going away at the line, and the 16s in six places about this ground-versatile 4yo is not a price I would lay.

His only experience of Newmarket was a very moderate run, but he was 66s in a 1m2f maiden there, and he soon showed his worth when stepped up in trip on his handicap debut on his fourth start.

In fact, he won at 4s that day (off a mark of 46) after beating just two of 34 rivals on his first three outings, so you can add the Crisfords to the above names, who may or may not have been accused of pulling strokes in the past…..

Another home runner who looks a touch overpriced is Spirit Mixer at 20s (he is 1lb well-in under his 7lb penalty) but the 14s poke Premier Ligne would be 3lb higher if the handicapper could have his way.

He comes here on the back of a good second in the Ces Trial here last time, but you fear for him against some of the Irish crew.

In short, I think Manxman is a fair bet at 16s – and that is very lukewarm advice – but he could be that price on the day, and maybe more, if the Irish posse, with more potential plots than your local cemetery, stand their ground en masse.

3pm Newmarket – Ballydoyle v Godolphin v Manor House in Dewhurst

I was going to leave it there but the other early-losing race on Saturday is Newmarket’s Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes at 3pm, and it received an interesting, unexpected twist on Monday.

Maybe even two.

There were still 30 in the race on Monday morning, when The Lion In Winter was the [11/8] favourite and Aidan O’Brien was responsible for a staggering 16 of those.

He now has five of the eight still in the race – Shadow Of Light was supplemented on Monday – which is also vaguely comical.

It certainly kills ante-post betting stone dead, as who knows what and how many he will run (Aftermath and Rock Of Cashel have two other engagements at Newmarket this week).

A measure of the current guessing game is that O’Brien has left Sunday’s Group 1 winner Camille Pissarro in the race and he is available at [12/1] in three places.

The Acomb winner (a race that has worked out tremendously well) The Lion In Winter is the [5/4] jolly, though he is evens in a fair few spots.

O’Brien actually had seven in the race until he took two out (Monumental and Trinity College) just before midday on Monday.

I guess the only betting option at this stage is to back one of the other three entries, as they will at least surely take their chance.

Won’t they?

Maybe not.

The three are Charlie Appleby’s duo of Ancient Truth and the supplemented Shadow Of Light, and Hugo Palmer’s Seagulls Eleven, third in the National Stakes last time.

Mind you, will Godolphin run both of theirs? They only ran one when winning this race in 2021 and 2019 but they were both odds-on pokes, I suppose.

Ancient Truth, [10/3] in a place but more generally [11/4], was actually last seen on the track when beating Seagulls Eleven by 1 ½ lengths in the Superlative Stakes in July, with Wimbledon Hawkeye a further 2 lengths away in third.

On a (probably admittedly misleading) line through the third, the Godolphin horse probably has a fair shot at beating the favourite, and the boys in blue could certainly do with another high-profile domestic winner. They didn’t even have a runner at the Arc meeting.

You have to think Shadow Of Light definitely runs, all being well, though I am somewhat surprised he has been added to the race (at a cost of 35k).

Of course, he was hugely impressive when beating Whistlejacket by daylight in the 6f Middle Park but Appleby was keen to stress that he saw him more as a Commonwealth Cup horse in the immediate aftermath of the race, and not a Guineas prospect.

He went even further and said: “we’ll put him away for the winter.”

I don’t see much harm in them finding out either way though, and neither do they clearly.  He presumably has delighted them since the Middle Park to come here.

That, or they consider Ancient Truth a doubtful runner.

We shall see.

Shadow Of Light’s half-brother Earthlight never tried a mile but he also won a Middle Park and stayed 7f well, and the supplemented horse just about rates the form horse here after what he did last time.

He is [5/2] in two places.

Go well this week.

 

GOING AND WEATHER FOR ITV TRACKS THIS WEEK – updated 8am Wednesday

 

NEWMARKET (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

Going:  Good (good to soft in places) –

Weather:  2mm Wednesday; then largely dry

 

YORK (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

 

Going: Soft, heavy in places (8mm overnight into 6.40am Wed)

Weather:  4mm Wednesday; then largely dry

 

CHEPSTOW (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

 

Going – Hurdles: Soft; Chase: Good to soft, soft in places – had 27.mm last two days, so will it be even more testing than official?

Weather: 2mm Thursday

 

SATURDAY’s DOUBLE ENTRIES FOR THE ITV RACES

1.15pm Newmarket: Peace Man, Valvano

1.30pm York: Apache Green, First Instinct, Huscal, La Bellota, Midnight Thunder, Pearl of Windsor, Pellitory, Raneenn

1.50pm Newmarket:  Aftermath, Delacroix, Dunamase, Genealogy, Rock Of Cashel, Silver Peak, Trinity College, Wolf Of Badenoch

2.05pm York: Austrian Theory, Bodorgan, City Of Delight, Financer, Grey Cuban, Harper’s Ferry, Mortlake, Paddy The Squire, Peace Man, Promethean, Silent Film, Stressfree (entered at Leicester on Tuesday), Two Brothers, Valvano, Yorkshire Lady

2.25pm Newmarket: Afentiko, Aftermath, Delacroix, Dunamase, Genealogy, Green Icon, Rock Of Cashel, Seagalozo, Silver Peak, Trinity College, Wolf Of Badenoch

2.40pm York: Admiral D, Alcazan, Aramram, Chairmanoftheboard, Coachello, Dakota Gold, Eye Of Dubai, Germanic, Hyperfocus, Inishfallen, Katey Kontent, McManaman, Summerghand, The Fixer, Tinto, Toca Madera, Trilby

3.00pm Newmarket: Aftermath, Rock Of Cashel

3.15pm York: Amiloc, Bear Kode, Chesneys Charm, Fearless Freddy, Olympus Point, Pap’s Turf, Seagolazo, Sybaris Jewel, Valiant Knight

3.35pm Newmarket:  Mark Of Gold, Story Horse

NB: The following are in a 100k early-closing handicap at Naas on Sunday (confirmed on Tuesday): Alphonse Le Grande, Falcon Eight, Jacovec Cavern

 

P AND L: -30.2