TONY CALVIN: A 10/1 chance will hopefully not find trouble in an empty room this time

Punters should be on weather watch at both of the ITV tracks ahead of the Saturday action.

We should have a good idea of what the ground will be at York, as little more rain is now forecast – they got 6.6mm overnight, and they will maybe get 3mm tomorrow but keep an eye out all the same  – but on the main weather site I use has a colossal 28mm is due to arrive from 3am at Goodwood on Saturday morning.

So the current good, good to soft in places, at Goodwood could change dramatically by race-time. If they get that 28mm (and they got 5mm on Thursday night having put 4mm on the bends on Wednesday) we could easily be looking at heavy.

The updated ground at York is good, good to firm in places.

After a very poor opening two days, let’s hope things perk up on Friday and Saturday.

Still, you have to be true to your tipping and betting MO, and that means big prices, and playing the long game.

Hopefully, not too long, mind you.

1.50pm York – Haunted Dream and Enfjaar against the field maybe

See The Fire and Alyanaabi head the market at a top-priced [11/4] and [7/2] respectively – and there is no doubt that the former is the one to beat after an Eclipse fourth that is working out tremendously well, while her Nassau second afterwards was another step forward – but I do like the claims of Haunted Dream and Enfjaar.

Enfjaar should have won by clear daylight off 105 in a Goodwood handicap last time and he was the one for early money on Thursday from an opening 6s and [11/2] – Goodwood was not his rider’s finest hour – and unsurprisingly, so.

The form and timefigure he posted there suggests he is fully deserving of his place in this Group 3 company, and beyond. I sounded like Buzz Lightyear there (watched it with my grandson last week, top film).

However, he is now a top-priced [9/2] and that is probably just about his price now.

A step back down to 1m1f, and possibly a first-time tongue-tie, saw Haunted Dream perform as I had hoped at Goodwood last time, as I think this horse has an impressive burst of speed for this trip, and he doesn’t want to be slogging his guts out over distances as far over 1m4f, as he had been asked to do.

I’d personally take him and Enfjaar against the field – and I’ll probably end up backing the former to small stakes at 10s upwards (he is an attractive 12s in one place) – but I’ll stop short of tipping them, as I am very worried about them having the ability to give See The Fire 10lb. ]

And this is no three-way go either, clearly, with Alynaabi and Task Force, and others, right in the mix. Checkandchallenge was half-interesting at 50s in first-time cheekpieces, but the in-form William Knight’s record with this headgear is nothing flash (see below).

It is a very strong Group 3, but I expect Haunted Dream to go well now the penny has dropped with connections as regards the trip.

2.25pm York – Dutching at 14/1 and 12/1 the way to go

The Melrose was six light of filling a maximum field of 22 and Terrorise is 6lb out of the handicap, which is a sign of the talent-drain times, I guess. We will come on to the Ebor in a moment.

Some dismiss this angle (I seem to recall the lesser-spotted James Willoughby getting the ball rolling there years ago, not that I often put on a pair of trousers and venture out), but I take trainer-form seriously (see below).

So it has to be a consideration – when tipping it is important to give all the negatives about horses you are putting up, so as to give the readers a full picture of their own – that William Muir and Chris Grassick have only had two winners since June (and are none from 25 this month).

Of course, some have run okay in defeat, but they clearly aren’t hitting the heights they did in April and June (27 and 22 per cent strike rate respectively).

In addition, it could hardly be said that the form of their Spaceport’s Sandown win last time has worked out well, with the second and fourth well beaten next time (the third hasn’t run since), and he has to race off a 7lb higher mark here.

But I loved the way he kept grinding it out from the front at Esher last time, crucially (I hope) on his first attempt at this trip – he was never as dominant as he was going through the line – and he did it in a very good time, too.

He looks set to get the lead again here from stall seven – his pace rivals are drawn much higher – and hopefully he can show the tenacity and stamina he displayed at Sandown last time.

If he does, it is game on.

The 16s in a place was taken on Friday morning but I am happy to suggest a win-only bet at the 14s available in eight places.

Like the Muir/Grassick combo, Jane Chapple-Hyam could certainly do with a winner as well, though she has had four horses beaten under a length in the last 13 days – when you do the trainerform stats it is important you have a good dig beyond the headline figures – but her Champagne Prince promises to be suited by this step up in trip to 1m6f for the first time.

I certainly fancy him to overturn recent Ascot form with Going Remote, as he probably should have won there and is 2lb better off for a neck defeat anyway, and there is surely a lot more to come from him after just five starts.

Unbeaten in two starts as a juvenile, he has taken a while to come to hand this term and the step up to 1m6f surely has to suit on run-style and pedigree, given his dam was best over this 1m6f trip (won a Group 3 and was rated 105 at her peak) and this is a well-bred colt who cost 230,000 guineas as a yearling.

He surely has plenty of handicap upside off 86 here.

He is 12s in a place, so take that if you can, but I will have to settle for the more generally available 11s in three places.

Of course, it is a very deep race, and you can make a case for plenty, but I’ll take those two against the field.

If you want to play them both each way, five places, I wouldn’t put you off. But that is your call.

3pm – 7/4 Audience probably not a bad price

York has designs of making this a Group 1 race, hence the 500k prize money – I think they were miffed when the Pattern Committee turned them down earlier in the year – but there is no point throwing money at horses that aren’t there, though I accept that approach is a slow-burner.

In that context, a turn-out of just eight is surely disappointing.

Of course, if the 124-rated Audience wins it will be welcomed by the York executive in their bid to upgrade and, if he is as good as he was when beating Charyn in the Lockinge and Art Power at Goodwood last time, then he may well do.

I don’t think [7/4] is a bad price – though that is available in just three places and I imagine it will come under pressure soon – but Kinross was badly positioned when beaten 5 lengths by Audience in the Lennox and he will have his supporters at 3s. The sectional boys chief among them, by the sounds of it.

I won’t be having a bet myself.

3.35pm – 12/1 Burdett Road could be the answer

We had a maximum field of 22 for the Ebor (no horses were balloted out though, and the bottom weight is rated a lowly 86, which is another red flag for UK racing when this is a 300k-to-the-winner pot) and it is as competitive as ever, as [13/2] the field underlines.

I didn’t see a lot of pace in here, and what there is seems to be drawn high to middle, so a bit of opportunism could pay dividends for one jockey as regards a change of run-style.

I am going to be perfectly honest with you. I must have looked at this race for a couple of hours on Thursday night, and afresh on Friday morning, I didn’t particular fancy anything at the current prices.

I didn’t feel remotely tempted to have a bet.

The horse I actually fancied most was Burdett Road, but even his top price of 12s didn’t really do it for me.

Don’t get me wrong, this smart juvenile hurdler showed a really good attitude to knuckle down to finish fifth over 1m4f at Ascot last month – I am having a bit of a James Owen love-in this week – on what was his first start since running at Cheltenham in January, and I can fully see this first Flat attempt over 1m6f suiting him.

But I was expecting a lot more than 12s (as low as 9s if you want eight places – Ed you may want to request an edit to that advert….) as bang for my buck.

I am not betting at the current prices for any of the 22, so no tip, I am afraid. Old line but only tip what you are willing to lose money on yourself.

And I have lost plenty this week so far….

4.10pm – Surely not 10/1 Summerghand?

The only pace I could see in this race was drawn 14,17 and 18, and that has hardly been the place to be on the sprint track at York this week.

I was seriously toying with Summerghand at 10s (in nine places) here as he will finally huff and puff and blow the handicap door down eventually, and a mark of 89 is going to prove an irresistible whirlwind at some point.

And he has won this race for the last two years (off 97 in 2022, and off 102 when dead-heating with Albasheer  last year).

I appreciate this may come across as a lazy tip but I really do think [10/1] each way, five places – available in seven places – is actually a very good bet.

I know he could find trouble in an empty room – an accusation levelled at me on more one than occasion (daily….) – but the wide expanses of York are ideal for him, and I don’t have any issue with his draw in six.

He again found traffic problems when charging home too late at Ripon last week, and a mark of 89 will see him win soon enough.

No-one can be sure if it is here, but I do think he wins this race more than once in 11 attempts, and finishes placed in the majority of them.

So 10s each way, five places, it is, then.

2.05pm Goodwood – Likely ground points to 7/1 Royalty Bay

I will re-state that, if the weather forecast proves correct, then we are probably looking at borderline heavy ground at Goodwood on Saturday.

If you can access the 14s about Miss Fascinator in a place (generally 10s and 11s), then you will be on to a good bet, as her 7f Newmarket nursery win last time is probably a form match for most of these.

The reason she is priced in double figures is that she is the least sexy in the field with five runs under her belt, and she faces some Susanna Reid-types iin the shape of four once-raced winners, but she is underestimated here.

The problem of course is that 14s will be unattainable for most, and her worst run to date has come on the easiest going she has encountered.

I imagine we are looking at a few non-runners here if the rain arrives, so 11 could easily become seven, and the most solid win-only option appears to be Royalty Bay, available at 7s in a place and a general 6s.

She is the only soft-ground winner in here, having won on that surface on her debut – Timeform agree – and she boasts the best form too, having just been touched off by an unbeaten filly in a Group 3 at Deauville last time.

If you are having a bet in the race, make it her at 7s or 6s, though there may be Rule 4s, as I said. And, of course, you don’t really know what she is up against with those Reid-types.

Hurry back from your summer hols, Susanna.

2.40pm Goodwood – 13/2 Poker Face could bounce back if more rain arrives

The fifth horse home here is assured of £4,263.55, so well done for those confirming on Thursday morning.

Lead Artist is very opposable at [6/5] on the likely ground and the deluge brings the rest of the field firmly into the equation.

Poker Face, in particular, would be a massive price at [13/2] if bouncing back to form after being pulled up in the Queen Anne, and it seems like connections are hopeful they have him back.

But it is a tricky race, and will Lead Artist even run if they cop that 28mm?

No, just a low-key Saturday with three tips for me.

I may personally also have a few quid (not much) on Haunted Dream, Poker Face and Royalty Bay though, and Burdett Road if he drifts.

Good luck.

BETS

Spaceport at [14/1] win-only in 2.25pm at York. Available in eight places.

Champagne Prince at [11/1] win-only in 2.25pm at York (12s in a place, so take that first), Available in three places.

Summerghand at [10/1] each way, five places, in 4.10pm at York. Available in seven places.

GOING/WEATHER

YORK

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

GOING STICK: 7.0 at 6.30am on Friday

WEATHER: Odd light shower on Friday maybe; 2.6mm Saturday afternoon

GOODWOOD

GOING: Good, good to soft in places – could well be soft-heavy on Saturday

GOING STICK:  7.7 at 9.15am on Thursday

WEATHER: 28mm on Saturday ; had 5mm overnight into Friday morning

WATERING: 4mm to bends on Wednesday

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

William Knight cheekpieces 1-19 (2017)

Aidan O’Brien blinkers 50-312 (2009)

Michael Dods blinkers 13-107 (2009)

Richard Spencer hood 2-34 (2016)

Richard Fahey cheekpieces 19-189 (2016)

BALLOTED OUT/SUPPLEMENTED

None

PACE MAPS

1.50pm York:  Flight Plan?, Phantom Flight, Alyanaabi

2.25pm York:  Imperial Sovereign, Spaceport, Mo Ghille Mar

3.00pm York:  Art Power, Audience

3.35pm York:  Queenstown, Crystal Delight, Fairbanks, Not So Sleepy?,

4.10pm York:  Dark Thirty?, Rhythm N Hooves?, Oso Rapido

4.45pm York:  Ardennes, Binadham, Do It Now, Fuji Mountain, La Bellota, Mr Lightside, Beauty Queen, River Seine

5.20pm York:  Killybegs Warrior, Chasing Aphrodite, Cockalorum, Rathgar (prominent), Lord Protector (prom),

2.05pm Goodwood: Alice Fairfax, Duty First, Tabiti

2.40pm Goodwood: Lead Artist, Poker Face

TRAINERFORM (does not include Friday’s results)

Excellent: William Haggas, Aidan O’Brien, Michael Bell

Good: John and Thady Gosden, David O’Meara, Ed Bethell, Ed Walker, David Menuisier, Alan King, Willie Mullins, William Knight, Roger Varian, Hamad Al Jehani, Marco Botti, Ralph Beckett, Owen Burrows, Jessie Harrington, Sir Mark Prescott, Mark Loughnane, Richard Spencer, Daniel and Claire Kubler, Jack Channon

Fair: Andrew Balding, Richard Fahey, Tim Easterby, Brian Ellison (maybe more moderate), , Hughie Morrison (welcome 15-2 winner on Wednesday evening), James Owen (22-1 and 7-4 winners on Tuesday), Ian Williams, Archie Watson, Kevin Philippart De Foy, Tom Clover, , Kevin Ryan (double on Wednesday), Sir Michael Stoute, John and Sean Quinn, Simon and Ed Crisford, Karl Burke, George Scott, Jane Chapple-Hyam (could do with a winner), Richard Hannon, Henry de Bromhead, Gavin Cromwell, Charalambous and Clutterbuck (only two runners), Miss Katy Brown, John Ryan, Conrad Allen, Ray Craggs (one runner, one second), Ruth Carr. Nigel Tinkler, Clive Cox (returning to form), Mick Appleby (could do with a winner but a lot running well)

Moderate: Adrian Keatley (two or three have run okay), Michael Dods, David Marnane, William Muir and Chris Grassick, Charlie Johnston (maybe nearer fair), David Loughnane, James Tate, Adam Nicol, Harry Eustace (though obviously Time For Sandals ran a blinder on Thursday), Roger Fell and Sean Murray, Declan Carroll, Diego Das, Lucinda Russell