TONY CALVIN: A 10/1 chance stands out at Exeter

Struggling for numbers

ITV’s decision to cover Exeter on Friday has ended up as being something of a damp squib, numbers -wise, but I hope no-one attempts to lay the blame for the small fields at the door of the clerk of the course for not watering.

Thanks for James Millman for the following: “There isn’t a watering system at Exeter – they can use bowsers if it happens to be extremely dry but that’s not ideal.”

The ground is good, with light showers forecast, so there can be no criticism of clerk Jason Loosemore.

Going stick reading on Friday confirms it has not been a drying week

As it says on the BHA site “it has not been a drying week” at Exeter.

And the going stick readings confirm this. It was 6.9 on Wednesday morning, and it was still 6.9 at 6.30am on Friday morning.

If trainers don’t want to run their horses on perfectly safe and acceptable good ground, then it is their look-out. Of course, some prefer a lot more dig, but they’ll just have to wait their turn.

And the five-day entries were not exactly plentiful, anyway.

ITV and Exeter have re-arranged their running order after the 15-runner novices’ hurdle was reduced to just four at the overnight stage (and one of those is in at Newbury on Thursday), and an eight-runner mares’ 0-115 handicap hurdle  has been put in its place at 3pm.

One thing before we start – a reminder that if you click on the headline for each race, it ‘ll take you through to the AKBets’ market.

1.50pm Exeter – 4/9 Captain Teague may win but I am not betting on it

There was £2,512 up for grabs for finishing fourth in this 3m novices’ chase at 1.50pm – and no-one wanted it.

In fact, Sue Gardner only entered her 105-rated Daring Plan late on, and the owners will be getting over 5k if he completes, barring deductions.

That’s excellent work for a 100s poke.

It’s [4/9] Captain Teague versus [2/1] Deafening Silence then, and I have no betting opinion. I doubt I’ll be alone there, though Captain Teague has drifted to [8/13] now, I see.

Why courses schedule these novices’ chases for terrestrial coverage continues to mystify me. Just record them and show them throughout the coverage instead of wasting a live race.

2.25pm Exeter – 12/1 Scarface has proven fitness on his side

We lost four of the 10 in the Haldon Gold Cup at the overnight stage, but six is actually a pretty decent turn-out for this race.

Four of these are forward-goers, so tactically it is a hard race to call, and fitness will be key here, with five making their seasonal debuts.

You’d think they’d all be pretty straight for a 100k but Scarface has had a recent run, and that is no bad thing.

He didn’t pull up any trees over an inadequate 2m at Cheltenham a fortnight ago, but he was very weak in the betting that day and it was probably a tee-up job for this, a race the stable has won in two of the last three years (and yes I know they also have Jpr One in here, and he is much shorter in the betting, indeed as short as [13/8] in a place but a more realistic [9/4] elsewhere).

I’d probably lean towards Scarface, at the prices, over this longer trip and with fitness assured in what is likely to be a strongly-run race – though he clearly gets a lot further than this – but a win for any of the six would not surprise me.

However, Scarface is 12s and 11s in places and that is the best bet I can see in this race. In fact, he is now 14s in a place.

3.00pm Exeter – Jockey booking and headgear point to 8/1 Micronormous

This dead-eight. 0-115 mares’ handicap hurdle has been drafted on to the ITV schedule but it is not a race that particularly appeals as a betting medium.

There is no point wasting much of my time or yours here.

It may be a necessary substitute race, with the original novices’ hurdle cutting up to just four runners from 15 at the five-day stage, but let’s be honest.

It is a very poor one. And just one non-runner makes would make it even poorer for each way punters.

One thing that did catch my eye was Harry Codben riding Micronormous for David Pipe. A relative rarity.

He is 4 from 11 for the yard, so that alone makes the horse of interest.

As does the fact the cheekpieces are re-applied. The horse’s best performance came when he finished third in them at Fontwell last year, on which he is well handicapped on a mark of 101.

He’d be my token choice – I wouldn’t lay the 8s that is out there, with [15/2] and 7s the general price – though admittedly the horse has not been running well.

But it’s that kind of lowly race, I guess.

I may have a very small bet on Micronormous on jockey and headgear grounds, and a forceful ride over this shorter trip could see the horse to better effect here. The 8s is very fair.

3.35pm Exeter – 10/1 Tea Clipper is fancied to go close here

Two horses immediately leapt out at me here behind the favourite. Well, hardly leapt out as it is a pretty forgettable 3m 0-130 handicap chase.

Wiseguy was the first off a mark of 125, as that could be lenient on his course and distance novices’ chase win here last November, a race that worked out well. He also has a fair record when fresh.

I was very surprised he opened at [17/2] on Wednesday, and he has actually drifted to 9s in three places and is getting bigger.

Tea Clipper was the other one.

And if I was surprised by Wiseguy’s opening odds, I was shocked that the first three firms up on Tea Clipper were 11s (twice) and 10s.

Take the each way, four places, if you can

He is still 10s in three places (including AKBets), and one of those firms is also offering four places. If you can access that, he definitely becomes an each-way bet (see Oddschecker for the details) but I can hardly cherry-pick here.

I’d like to, mind you, especially with the likes of Coco Mademoiselle, the [5/2] favourite, in here, a very dangerous rival.

The handicapper tends to treat Dan Skelton runners very fairly, and he was incredibly generous in not raising his mare for her Worcester second last time, a race which worked out very well. Inexplicable really. She is a massive player.

However, I was expecting around 6s about Tea Clipper, being honest, so I am happy to bet.

He runs here in preference to taking in the hotter Badger Beer at Wincanton on Saturday (he was a general 16s and 20s for that), and he does so with a visor replacing his usual cheekpieces.

If they do the trick, then he may take some stopping off a mark of 127.

I thought his run here last month was a fair enough effort (he was relatively weak in the market there on his first start since the Foxhunters’) so a 3lb drop in the weights was a real bonus, and he is handicapped to win if reproducing his form at this time last season.

He is now 9lb lower than when a 1 ¼ length second to Hold That Taught at Ascot last November, and the winner was rated 8lb higher after winning his following start.

I appreciate he has been a bit of a non-winner over fences (well, one from 17 to be precise), so stakes will be low, but this is a horse who was rated 20lb higher when sixth (a well beaten one, admittedly) in the Ultima last year and this is his ground.

Vibes of Sebastopol with the headgear switch

The first-time visor is an unknown but at least Tom Lacey is 1 from 4 with this in recent years.

The winner was Sebastopol at Kempton in March 2022, and that horse had been something (a lot of one actually) of a twicer when running in cheekpieces beforehand, as Tea Clipper has been.

Lert’s hope for a similar transformation.

He really should be going very close here, although Wiseguy is a dangerous rival.

Tea Clipper is definitely my main bet. but I may dutch him with Wiseguy , and do a reverse forecast for good measure. That favourite worries me a lot, but little else does.

BET

Tea Clipper at [10/1] in 3.35pm at Exeter. Available in three places , including with AKBets (9s and 8s is also fine, and any 7s or bigger would be acceptable to me) – if you can get the 10s each way, four places, take it.

NB: As in copy, I’ll probably also back Wiseguy and do a reverse forecast on the pair. And have a small dabble on Micronormous at 8s in the 3pm.

GOING AND WEATHER

EXETER  (updated 7am Friday)

Going:  Good

Going stick: 6.9 at 6.30am Friday

Weather:  Very light shower possible

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Tom Lacey visor – 1 from 4 since 2022; Tea Clipper, 3.35pm Exeter

PACE MAPS FOR ALL ITV RACES

1.50pm Exeter: Who knows? Who cares?

2.25pm Exeter: Djelo?, Etalon, Sans Bruit, Scarface (prominent)

3.00pm Exeter: Versace Twentyone, Micronormous

3.35pm Exeter: Bangers And Cash (prom), Jeremy Pass, Egbert, Tea Clipper (prom), Beachcomber, Wiseguy, Striking A Pose

TRAINERFORM (manually done; includes a “Trainer In Focus”)

************TRAINER IN FOCUS**********

Venetia Williams

Everyone, it seems, is expecting Venetia Williams to really kick on after having a winner with Martatar at Ascot last weekend.

Williams traditionally enjoys an excellent November, albeit on softer ground than that is currently doing the rounds. But she will pick her battles, accordingly.

She was 17 from 51 last November for an impressive 33 per cent strike rate, and followed that up with 18 from 65 in December before her form deteriorated for the rest of the season.

Her runners will be on everyone’s radar, though, saying that, her sole runner at Chepstow on Wednesday finished last of five….

******************************

Good: Dan Skelton, Harry Fry, David Pipe

Fair: Paul Nicholls (maybe swinging into gear), Joe Tizzard (arguably good, and another winner on Thursday), Ben Pauling (6-1 winner on Thursday), Alan King (winner on Thursday), Tom Lacey, Jonjo and A J O’Neill, Nicky Henderson, Kim Bailey, Evan Williams (8-1 winner on Thursday), Jane Williams (moderate outside of a recent 9-4 winner), Venetia Williams (very small sample)

Moderate: Emma Lavelle, Sue Gardner (only three runners, though), Sheila Lewis

Don’t know: Kevin Bishop, Joseph G Davies, Andrew J Martin, Jimmy Frost