TONY CALVIN: 9/2 chance should honestly be snapped up at Ascot

I am normally on a break when the Shergar Cup is on, so I had to ask around on Thursday morning what the score was with the allocation of jockeys and the reserves (they can come in up to 45 minutes before the race).

It is not an ideal betting medium by any means – and one of the races hasn’t even filled, so I don’t know what happens there on the scoring front, not that I particularly care – but let’s crack on.

I’ll take Ascot first, even if I wasn’t overly-optimistic about finding too many bets.

I wrote this intro before the jockeys were assigned around 1pm on Thursday – also taking the opportunity of that information-vacuum after 10am to get the stats below sorted – and I was expecting to pay a fair premium in order to get with the UK-based jockeys once the odds appeared.

Mind you, one firm went up on all races before the riders were drawn, and there isn’t a massive price bias towards the home jockeys.

They have been watering at Ascot (see below) but it should be on the quick side of good, as indeed it is set to be at Haydock and Newmarket, too.

And the reserves situation may well come into play on a couple of races, which is problematical for punters.

All the usual details, stats and information are below. It takes a good while to compile, but hopefully it is worth it.

1.35pm Ascot – 11/2  Badri looks the pick of weights

It is no surprise to see the in-form trio of Apollo One (non-runner as at 10.34am on Friday, allowing Night On Earth a run), Adaay In Devon and the awesome Jordan Electrics head the betting, but I thought they were all priced up as they should have been.

I can certainly see the case for Badri overturning recent Hamilton form with the latter, especially as he hadn’t been with Michael Herrington long (around a week, tops) before that second and I have a lot of time for the new trainer.

The horse himself is on a very favourable mark of 92, given he was rated 104 after winning here last October, but I haven’t a Scooby how good Marie Velon is.

Sorry to come across as a Little Englander, but that is the truth.

We can all read the bios (see the link below), and hers is hugely impressive, but it is a factor nonetheless and this looks to be her UK debut. The competence of some high-profile UK-based jockeys is in the news, rightly and wrongly, after all.

Perhaps, more importantly, I was looking for a bit bigger than the general [11/2] for Badri, who has been a point bigger.

It’s obviously a very competitive sprint handicap, and a first-time visor and gelding respectively make Desert Cop and Kylian half-interesting too at double-figure odds.

Pass.

2.10pm Ascot – Reserve Samui looms large over this race

Everyone will be on reserve watch here as Samui will be a relatively short-priced favourite if he gets in (the first firm up on Thursday – and they did so without knowing the jockeys – made him 2s, and that remains the general price, though a bit of [9/4] intermittently pops up on the Oddschecker grid.

His trainer Gordon Elliott will undoubtedly be looking for a non-runner favour from someone in here and, heaven forbid, maybe even some money may change hands in order to secure it.

Scurrilous talk, I know.

I’ll be honest with you, and I had never heard of some of these jockeys, including Alberto Sanna (again, see his CV in the bio link below), which is a shame as his mount The Grand Visir has fallen to a ridiculously low mark of 81 and he ran a little better at Goodwood last time.

He was third in this race off 94 last year and has an excellent Ascot record, so I was obviously tempted by him at the general 16s (20s in a place) but I literally have no idea how effective Sanna will be on just his second venture to the UK (his previous visit was in 2004).

I never take too much notice of jockeys when betting, but that is only because I think there is very little between most of the riders in the UK, but I have never seen him ride, to my knowledge.

No bet – though I suspect I’ll end up chucking a score on The Grand Visir (in fact I just have) – especially as reserve Samui looms large over this race. Until 45 minutes before the off, anyway.

2.45pm Ascot – Shortener Truthful still appeals greatly at 9/2

Jockeyship could play a big role in the 1m4f handicap at 2.45pm, as there is no confirmed front-runner, so initiative could pay dividends.

However, as much as I like to shy away from the obvious, I kept on coming back to Truthful, even if I wouldn’t be a particular fan of Hayley Turner.

Just to even it up in case you thought I was being xenophobic…

Truthful opened up at a general 7s early on Thursday, and the [11/2] was hoovered up quickly afterwards – though there is still a stubborn spot of that in the usual rogue place – but I am happy with her current price of [9/2].

She was very weak in the market on her reappearance at Newmarket last month and possibly ran like that race was a stepping stone – though perhaps we shouldn’t read too much into it, as those closers from miles off the pace can flatter to deceive – and maybe William Haggas had this race in mind for the Highclere owners.

And their lanky rep, Harry Herbert, loves an Ascot winner. I’m sure I heard him crooning there after Soprano won at the Royal meeting.

The filly was dropped 1lb for that July course run and this lightly-raced sister to the stable’s smart Sea On Time could be fairly weighted off 94 here.

She ran well over 1m6f in Listed company in France last season, flattening out a bit close home, having previously bumped into one when second to Mistral Star at Salisbury.

Truthful is now 4lb higher, but the winner now has 27lb more to hump (she actually dotted up in Truthful’s comeback race) and the third has also gone up 10lb since.

The form of the William Haggas stable has taken off of late. He had a 16 per cent strike rate in July but he is 9 from 19 in August, with five of the others in the first three, and those successes have come from his last 13 runners. Phenomenal form.

Any [7/2] or bigger will do me, and maybe 3s, too. She could well go off 3s, in fact.

3.20pm Ascot – 15/8 favourite will be hard to chin

Aramram looked fair enough at a general 12s (16s in a place), as did the 20s about Dapper Valley, but I don’t think I am in a mad rush to oppose Jarraaf in here, even if he is a general [15/8] chance.

He was rather impressive when winning over course and distance last time, and an 8lb rise may not stop him following up on just his fifth starts.

However, I can let [15/8] pokes win all day without my money in 10-runner handicaps.

3.55pm Ascot – 8/1 Sam could be the each-way man

Pretty much the same comment applies to the 7/4 favourite – and that is coming under severe pressure – in this 1m4f handicap, Solomon, the mount of Sanna.

He was set to run in a 1m2f handicap at Sandown on Thursday night before coming out there – “Other” was the official reason – but I can’t see the 1m4f trip here being too much of a problem, though it is a question he has to answer, all the same.

He is probably bred to get it though, even if he is by miler Siyouni.

And, perhaps crucially, he can race off the same mark as when sluicing up in a 0-85 at Haydock on Sunday, though that probably wasn’t the deepest race.

He could have 10lb and more in hand of these, but his new stablemate Sam Hawkens is surely an each-way bet at the general 8s on the yard-switch alone.

I do accept that no-one is going to want to get too close to Solomon if he looks like winning though – and he could be a steering job – so I’ll have the safety net of a place (one firm is offering four places but three is fine for me).

Previously with Richard Hannon, the recent move to Haggas is a serious trainer upgrade for Sam Hawkens, and he rates a bet on that factor alone.

The Galileo colt has an impressive pedigree for an 86-rated colt – he has come down 3lb for his last two defeats – and his new owners could have got a bargain, as they snaffled him for 105,000gns on July 4th, so Haggas has had over a month to work his stuff.

Maybe they are eyeing up Australia down the line for him, but hopefully he can thrive in the here and now.

Let’s hope Turner has a good day, as she is on board this one for Haggas, too. Any 6s or bigger each way suits.

4.30pm Ascot – 6/1 Silent can roar

Turner has another excellent chance in the last with New Image but, from a punting point of view, the market probably this one this right in making her mount the [10/3] favourite.

But whether 4s chance Carrytheone turns out again quickly, under a 3lb penalty after a last-gasp win at Chepstow on Thursday night (it was soft there and not the good to firm it says on the Racing Post website) is anyone’s guess.

First reserve Orbaan could well get a shot at this.

Silent Film is the each-way angle at the generally available 6s though, surely. Two bookmakers offer four places, so take that if you can, but three is the fairer recommendation.

He was given a mountain to climb by a Japanese jockey (yes, I know, I’ll stop it) when a strong-finishing fourth in this race last season and he has again shaped very well from off the pace on his last two starts, most recently at Goodwood last week.

He got no running room there until it was far too late, and he ended up coasting home in eighth.

He is now 1lb lower and returning to the scene of his best effort, a narrow second to Fresh off 100 here in September 2022, and he surely is set to run a huge race under Seamie Heffernan. His 7f pace could come in handy here too, as there is no confirmed pace, as it stands.

Any 5s or bigger appeals win and place.

If you told me I was going have to three bets on this Ascot card, I wouldn’t have believed you.

2.25pm Haydock – Is it Cruyff’s turn at 12/1?

The handicapper has given Cruyff Turn a huge chance in this 1m handicap, and I have to have a few quid on him win-only at the general 12s, including with AKBets.

He got dropped 3lb, to a mark of just 82, for a respectable enough run at Thirsk last time and that now makes him some 9lb lower than his last winning level, at Redcar last June.

The fact that he hasn’t really shone in four starts around here doesn’t bother me too much – though you can actually rate his fourth here in 2021 as one of his better efforts – as that mark is too tempting to pass up. I also acknowledge his draw in 10 probably isn’t ideal, either.

Rated 100 at his peak, the last time he was rated 82 he won by 3 ½ lengths, so I’ll take my chances. A reproduction of his placed efforts at Redcar and Nottingham this summer would also see him go close, so we are not talking about the dim and distant past here.

I wouldn’t go lower than 10s here as there are clear negatives.

3.00pm and 4.45pm Haydock – 12/1 Julia may be worth a second look

Small-field Group and Listed races rarely do it for, so I’ll leave it there for Haydock.

For what it is worth, I thought Julia Augusta was a fair price at 12s in the fillies and mares’ Listed 1m race at 4.45pm, especially as she could get the run of the race from the front.

3.40pm Newmarket – two powerhouses go head-to-head

Mountain Breeze looks the one to beat on form and on the clock but, with none of the opposition boasting her level of experience (she has raced just four times), all have the capability to come up her level.

The most obvious one is Lake Victoria, and the first firm up on Thursday morning made her the [11/8] favourite over the Godolphin filly at [7/4], with Flaming Stone next up at [13/2].

Aidan O’Brien’s Lake Victoria obviously did very well to win on her debut at the Curragh, and the runner-up Red Letter hosed up next time and is being talked of in Group 1 Moyglare terms.

I wouldn’t have a betting opinion at the current prices, though.

Good luck.

 

BETS

Cruyff Turn at [12/1] win-only in 2.25pm at Haydock. Available in 17 places, including AK Bets.

Truthful at [9/2] win-only in 14.55 at Ascot. Available in seven places (11/2 in one spot)

Sam Hawkens at [8/1] each-way, three places, in 3.55pm at Ascot. Available in 11 places.

Silent Film at [6/1] each-way, three places, in 4.30pm at Ascot. Available in eight places. (5s upwards is more than acceptable, especially if you can get four places, too)

 

GOING/WEATHER

 

ASCOT

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

GOING STICK: 7.7 Straight course, 6.9 Round, as at 7.30am Thursday morning

WEATHER: Largely dry

WATERING: 5mm round course and 10mm straight on Monday; 4mm round course and 5mm straight course on Friday morning

 

HAYDOCK

GOING: Good to firm, good in places (6mm on Thursday)

GOING STICK:  7.2 at 7am on Friday

WEATHER:  Very light showers, if any

 

NEWMARKET

 

GOING:  Good, good to firm in places

GOING STICK:  6.7 as at 7am on Friday

WEATHER:  Largely dry

WATERING: 15mm applied Monday/Tuesday; 8mm Thursday

 

 

 

BALLOTED OUT/RESERVES (money back on reserves not getting in)

1.35pm Ascot – Balloted Out: The Big Board

2.10pm Ascot:  Reserve: Samui

2.45pm Ascot:  Balloted Out: God Of Thunder, Saratoga Gold

3.20pm Ascot:  Reserves: Beyond Borders, General Assembly: Balloted Out: Jimmy Speaking, Cypriot Diaspora

4.30pm Ascot:  Reserves: Orbaan, Urban Sprawl; Balloted Out; Billy Mill, Master Of Combat

 

FIRST TIME HEADGEAR

 

Andrew Balding visor 18-161 since 2009

 

Roger Varian hood 35-178 since 2011

 

 

PACE MAPS

 

1.35pm Ascot:  Jordan Electrics, Adaay In Devon, Desert Cop?, Kylian, Night On Earth

2.10pm Ascot: Ranch Hand, Fox Journey, Sheradann, Struth

2.45pm Ascot: No obvious pace but some occasionally prominent racers

3.20pm Ascot:  Action Point, Aramram, Dapper Valley, Venture Capital, General Assembly (reserve)

3.55pm Ascot:  San Hawkins, Champagne Prince?

4.30pm Ascot:  Talis Evolvere?, Spirit Catcher?, Urban Sprawl (reserve)

2.25pm Haydock: Twirling?, Bear Force One, Golspie, Pheonix Passion

3.00pm Haydock: Certain Lad (prom), Regal Reality?

4.45pm Haydock: Julia Augusta, Orchid Bloom (prom), Strutting (prom)

3.40pm Newmarket (little evidence): Flaming Stone

 

TRAINERFORM for the ITV races (does not include Friday’s racing)

 

EXCELLENT: William Haggas (superb form), Daniel and Claire Kubler. Ed Bethell, Owen Burrows, Charlie Appleby, Ollie Sangster, Ralph Beckett

 

GOOD:  Adam West (arguably more fair), Harry Eustace, Gemma Tutty, Michael Dods, Jack Channon, Sir Michael Stoute, Jessie Harrington, James Fanshawe, Richard Spencer, Nigel Tinkler, Aidan O’Brien (though probably nearer excellent), Simon and Ed Crisford, Mick Appelby

 

FAIR: Charalambous/Clutterbuck, Archie Watson, William Knight, Gordon Elliott, Ian Williams, Alan King, Jarlath Farley, Jamie Osborne, Jane Chapple-Hyam (needs a winner), Michael Bell, Roger Varian. John and Thady Gosden, Jim Goldie, Rod Millman (not many winners), David Simcock, Hugo Palmer. Andrew Balding, Karl Burke, Michael Herrington, Patrick Owens, David O’Meara, Kevin Frost, Ed Dunlop, Richard Hughes, Charlie Johnston (though low strike rate), Patrick Morris

 

MODERATE: Chris Dwyer (not many runners), Philip Kirby (few running well but a while since a winner), Ed Walker (9-1 winner on Thursday night, though), Jack Davison (borderline fair), Richard Hannon (a double on Thursday, though), James Evans (few runners), Kevin Ryan, Tim Easterby (though recent 9-1 and 7-1 winners, so maybe that is harsh), Lucinda Russell

 

JOCKEYS’ INFO: https://www.ascot.com/Dubai-Duty-Free-Shergar-Cup-Jockeys?dm_t=0,0,0,0,0