By Tony Calvin - 17 May 2025
An early start on ITV as there is a soccerball game taking place at Wembley, apparently.
Only joking, I know all too well.
Team Susanna Reid.
As always.
This is a very tricky race to kick off with, as only 3lb separates four of these, and a further three are not far off of their coat-tails.
And I can see one of that trio playing a role here.
I am not sure what the 82-rated gelding Raja Raja is doing in this race, as he is hardly a black-type hunting female – each-way backers will be nervous if he gets pulled out of this dead-eight – but Eydon could outrun his odds of [14/1].
He looked to have a very bright future when running away with the Feilden and then finishing fourth in the Guineas, but he missed the rest of 2023 and then he hasn’t really progressed as expected since.
He has put up some decent efforts though, notably his run in the Doonside Cup over 1m2f behind Lockinge hopeful Persica, and he has been given a break since a Southwell defeat in January.
Hopefully that was by design and not accident, as he had three quick runs from November to January, and I’d be pretty keen to see what he can do fresh, over 1m4f on turf, here.
It is more of a hunch than a solid thought and I couldn’t, hand on heart, recommend you back him with any confidence whatsoever. He is 18s+ on Betfair, though, and that is too big win-only.
I couldn’t see a pace angle in this so perhaps they may consider going forward on the [9/4] favourite King’s Gambit again, especially now he races in first-time blinkers.
I think they may be reluctant to do so, though. And so may the horse.
Al Aasy, called a few names in the past but now more reliable than most, may actually be the solid one in here but he has been well found in the early market from [9/2] and 4s into [11/4].
And the latter price may be coming under pressure.
The theme of these day-of-race columns is to now to focus on where the price is going, not where it has been.
Courage Mon Ami is out with a bruised foot as at 8.18am, reducing this race to seven runners.
Good work, Mr Knight.
Physique was an important non-runner in this yesterday (taken out at 12.43pm with a bruised foot – actually how can you see when horses have bruises?), as I think it gives connections of Vicario the opportunity to press on with their filly again.
Hopefully, in more ways than one.
Vicario could be the forward-goer in here, as she made the running earlier in her career, and I am surprised she is the outsider of the party at 9s, for all her draw in two may not be ideal. It’s a small field, though.
She ran well first time up last season, trip and ground are fine, and Ed Walker’s comments in his Weekender column (which is very good as far as these missives are concerned) certainly wouldn’t put you off.
Eduardo said: “She is more grown up and sensible now and I hope she can climb the ladder and get some black type for her brilliant family.”
That may be pushing it for an 87-rated filly, but I quite like her at the price and have backed her.
Harvard Sound, drawn one, hails from the Tom Clover yard which is running into a fair bit of form, and he could be dangerous at 7s, too.
Two from two on turf, under today’s jockey Neil Callan (I was tempted to call him John Wayne again but he may chin me when I next see him if I continue to labour that 2022 Giavellotto St Leger point), he strikes me as a player here off a falling handicap mark of 84, and the first-time cheekpieces (see trainer’s record below) could coax him back to winning form.
He may have had a problem since running at Southwell in January, though.
If the Newbury opener is tricky, then this 3yo Listed race says hold my beer.
Talking of beer, how many people would have been tempted to let Luke Harvey wear the other half of that Guinness?
If I did a poll on it, my guess would be 80 per cent (well maybe eight, but that doesn’t sound as good), and I couldn’t believe that mortified racegoer didn’t let him have it.
He would have been famous for 15 minutes (the racegoer, not Luke), though someone has just pointed out the bloke fortuitously appeared to have a second Guinness ready and waiting….
With the openness of this race in mind, I am a bit surprised that Ides Of March was best at just [11/10] as this went live, and that is disappearing, for all he is the highest-rated horse in here on his juvenile form and comes here on the back of a good return when second to stablemate Whistlejacket at Navan.
In fact, you could argue that was a step up on his 2yo efforts.
However, I’d be tempted to look elsewhere at the current prices – he was [7/4] on Thursday morning – and Symbol Of Honour at [11/2] is the obvious each-way alternative.
Mind you, he was 7s when I went to bed and 6s in a fair few places earlier this morning.
He was undoubtedly underwhelming when heavily-punted on the show over 7f at Newmarket on his return but maybe this 6f trip is more his cup of tea if sitting handy, as he did when winning a brace at Meydan earlier in the year.
Whether that’s a betting opinion (which is all that counts) is debatable.
In fact, it isn’t.
In truth, if you take the favourite out of the equation, all of these would be fancying their chances to varying degrees.
I certainly wouldn’t go anywhere close to laying Caburn at 33s+ on the exchange; in fact I’ve just had a small tickle myself at 9.50am.
So I better make the case for him – he is currently 33s with six firms, including AKBets.
He is one to consider, anyway.
Trainer Jack Jones hasn’t had a winner in a while but his horses are running well enough, and Caburn is surely overpriced here.
The third highest-rated horse in this race, he obviously underperformed on his final start last season in a Donny sales race but his earlier efforts entitle him to respect.
He is a course winner (copped the thick end of 130k for winning the Weatherbys Super Sprint) who ran a good fifth in the Gimcrack, and a reproduction of that York Group 2 run could easily see him hit the frame here, and maybe better.
He is also 12s win-only without the favourite and Symbol Of Honour, a price you wouldn’t catch me offering.
Strong Warrior, who ranged from 12s to 18s, is out as at 6.23am as injured in box.
I wouldn’t be a fan of backing Roger Varian horses at the best of times, especially at short prices, but you can fully see why his Fondo Blanco is [5/2] across the board here in this 7f handicap.
The least exposed in the field, he looks well handicapped off 85 and the step up to 7f looks highly likely to bring about improvement.
But I can let him win unbacked at the current price, thanks.
A low turn-out of 10 for the 100k London Gold Cup, but it remains a hard enough puzzle to solve, with 4s the field.
However, once again, the early moves have scuppered my desire to get with Asmen Warrior. He was as big as 10s yesterday but he is into just [11/2] now.
And the two firms offering four places go a mere [9/2].
You can see why he has been supported though – I see he is The Times’ nap too, and they invariably attract cash – as he looks fairly handicapped off 82 here.
Generously so maybe, as he has put an inauspicious heavy ground 2yo debut behind him with two good efforts in defeat this season, bumping into the Chester Vase third Convergent at Redcar and then finishing second to a well-bred, well-punted Juddmonte winner at Leicester, in what could be a fair heat.
He is related to a few horses far better than 82, notably Windfast, but that reduced price means I will play a waiting game with him and hope he drifts.
I fear Wave Rider and Saddadd most of the opposition but all 10 have their chance in this, in truth.
It is currently [5.9] the field on Betfair, whose market has traded just 14k at 7.33am.
No real opinion in this dead-eight 1m handicap but Mythical Guest steps down in grade to a 0-85, having run well in 0-100 and 0-95 company this season, and he looks a fair enough price at [16/5] behind the [13/8] jolly Classic Encounter.
I had hair the last time George Margarson had a winner – he probably did too, thinking about it – but everything looks in place for his horse here, as an in-form course winner off a winnable mark.
George’s last winner was in June, by the way, but I can see why the [9/2] about his hoss was taken yesterday, and the [16/5] in three places when I woke up this morning went just before 6.30am, too.
Early birds getting the worms, maybe.
Where’s Freddy is a NR as at 8.15am, and this is another ITV race down to seven runners.
I’ve just read a headline in the Racing Post saying this is the best Lockinge for 50 years.
I’m not sure who said it – I didn’t read the story – or whether it holds any truth, but this is a fairly spanking renewal.
Ish.
Bizarrely, the absence of outsider Prague (pulled out on Friday with a temperature) could have a big bearing on this race – aside from reducing this to a dangerous dead-eight for each-way punters – as I had him down as the main pace angle, followed by Fallen Angel, Persica and Rosallion.
Tactics could have a big bearing on the outcome then, as they did in this last year when punted outsider Audience made all.
I think one of the remaining pace angles, Fallen Angel, is the overpriced one in here at 20s in a place and a general 18s.
She is currently 8lb shy of Rosallion and Notable Speech on official ratings (well, 5lb when you factor in the sex allowance), but I think that slightly underplays the talent of this lightly-raced dual Group 1 winner.
She has yet to run a bad race – and I would include the 1,000 Guineas in that, for all she could only finish eighth when sent off the 100/30 favourite – and she ran crackers in defeat at the back-end, when chasing home Porta Fortuna in the Matron Stakes and when possibly not seeing the trip out fully when fourth over 1m2f in the Prix de l’Opera.
Basically, she is a Group 1 filly being disrespected in the market and I hope they have her primed (enough) for her reappearance and try to make all on her.
I’ve backed her win-only at [24.0] on Betfair this morning , but the 20s and 18s fixed-odds looks fine, too.
It looks a win-only race to me.
Having read Karl Burke’s quotes in the Racing Post now, she may well drift but I am undeterred.
He said: She’s a very high-class filly and owes nobody anything. She’s working only satisfactorily but she’s a year older and she’s only going through the motions at home. She’s also a filly who’s got better with a run under her belt and for a bit of warmer weather. I’m hoping she runs a nice race but I’m very much looking towards the rest of the season with her. Royal Ascot will be the main plan.”
Let’s hope he is being unduly pessimistic, and trying to get others to ignore his filly on the front end….
One firm has literally just gone 22s.
Apologies for the light-hearted tone of this column.
I won’t let it happen again.
Vicario at 9/1 win-only in 1.05pm at Newmarket. Pretty much available across the board (very quiet punting day once again, and this is only a small-stakes bet – only other bet of note I have had is Fallen Angel)
Going: Good to firm
Going stick: 6.8, Saturday 6am (was 6.1 on Friday)
Saturday morning course update: We lost 3.6mm in evaporation (ET) yesterday (22C) & 21.9mm in total over the past 7 days. Forecast: Cloudy start, gentle breeze, sunny spells later (19C).
Watering: 30-32mm applied last week. 8-12mm applied Tuesday. 6-8mm applied Wednesday/ Thursday.
Soil moisture average = 39.4% (updated today)
Rails: Fresh running line on the 7f & 5f bends for this day with a slight cut away in the straight
Stalls: 1m2f & 1m4f – Inside Remainder (straight course) – Centre
Going: Good to firm
Going Stick: 7.8, Saturday 6am
Saturday morning course update: Forecast: Dry with sunny spells, daytime highs of 19C.
Watering: 20mm applied on Friday with 12mm applied on Monday. Further 15mm applied on Wednesday.
Rails: Stands Side Course in use.
Stalls: Centre
Harry Charlton blinkers – King’s Gambit, 12.50pm, Newbury; 0-1 (since 2024) + Roger 2-18 (2022)
Harry Charlton hood – Wave Rider, 2pm Newbury; 1-12 (2024) + Roger 0-9 (2022)
Tom Clover cheekpieces – Harvard Sound, 1.05pm Newmarket ; 4-31 (2018)
George Scott cheekpieces – Griselda, 1.40pm Newmarket; 7-71 (2016)
Richard Hannon blinkers – Miss Collada, 1.40pm Newmarket; 28-235 (2014)
12.50pm Newbury (no obvious pace): King’s Gambit?
1.05pm Newmarket: Vicario, Harvard Sound?
1.25pm Newbury: Berkshire Whisper, Ides Of March, Righthere Rightnow, Hold a Dream, Sayidah Dariyan
1.40pm Newmarket: We Dare To Dream, Saxonia
2pm Newbury: Ernst Blofeld, Circus Of Rome, Asmen Warrior, Lightening Mann (prom)
2.15pm Newmarket: Classic Encounter, Good Morning Alex, Red Hot Whisper
2.35pm Newbury: Rosallion, Fallen Angel, Persica
Good: Aidan O’Brien (very good), John and Thady Gosden, Ralph Beckett, Ed Walker, Charlie Appleby, Richard Hannon, William Haggas, Jack Channon, Denis Quinn (small sample), George Scott, Stuart Williams, Tom Clover (winners on Thursday and Friday)
Fair: Andrew Balding, Karl Burke, David O’Meara, Richard Fahey, Richard Hughes, Marco Botti (borderline good), , Richard Spencer (winners on Wednesday and Friday), Dylan Cunha, William Knight, Roger Teal, Harry Charlton, David Simcock (could do with a winner), Jack Jones (could do with a winner), Clive Cox (borderline good), Roger Varian, Newland and Insole, Brian Meehan, Robert Eddery, Charlie Johnston (10-1 winner on Friday), Daniel and Claire Kubler, George Boughey
Moderate:, David Menuisier, David and Nicola Barron, Ed Dunlop (winner on Thursday, though), Ben Brookhouse, George Margarson (has forgotten what a winner looks like, but some of his ran okay 2-3 weeks ago)
Don’t Know: Hamad Al Jehani, Pam Sly
1.15pm Ascot – 11/2 Catchintsavo set to lead again All change here. Sixteen became six…
TUESDAY race-by-race copy for Saturday 1.15pm Ascot – First three in the betting are due…
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