By Tony Calvin - 23 December 2024
I am going to attack Boxing Day in two parts, starting with the six ITV races here.
Oh, I probably should mention Constitution Hill is set to take on Lossiemouth in the Christmas Hurdle.
That should be okay.
Then, I will do an update, in the next 24 hours or so, once all the other races are priced up, and see if there is anything worth highlighting there.
Probably on Tuesday, but maybe Christmas Day.
I’ll tweet on X when the final analysis has been done, but there is plenty to get stuck into below.
I had a look and nothing much appealed.
That isn’t strictly true as, outside of the King George bet, I have also backed Florida Dreams at 3s and [11/4] in the 1.40pm.
There is still some 3s out there, but the general [11/4] is absolutely fine.
He tanked through the Greatwood Hurdle before being outspeeded turning in, and then stayed on again to finish a good fifth.
That Cheltenham form is mixed but the sixth, Fiercely Proud, came out and won the Ladbroke last weekend and went up 9lb for it..
The selection has been dropped a handy 1lb for that run, and hopefully the step up to 2m4f will suit.
The stable remain in great nick, he has excellent course form (won a Grade 2 bumper here and finished fifth in the old Tolworth on this card last season) and he will take a lot of beating .
He could start at at around 2s, not that you can second-guess the markets these days. It is the Wild West near the off.
Uncle Bert could be a [17/2] each way saver for me, but I will mull that over with an early gin and tonic.
Well, it is Christmas, isn’t it….
Have a good one, all.
Right, let’s crack into ITV on Boxing Day (all the usual stats and information are below, and these will be updated daily too over the Christmas period).
Let’s do it chronological order; the four runner-race, with no each-way betting, can wait.
Only joking.
Not even I am that negative….
The ground at Kempton could well be good by race-time.
Two things immediately struck me about this race when I started looking at it on Monday around midday.
The first is that all the firms’ prices were pretty much identical. I admit there was probably ante-post betting on it (I didn’t look) , which guided them, but even so.
The second was that the race was packed full of pace, with seven of the nine having a preference for making it or being ridden prominently (see below), the exceptions being First Street and Es Perfecto.
Asta La Pasta shaded the early betting at [7/2], just ahead of Range at 4s – Es Perfecto and El Rio weren’t far behind at [11/2] – and that wasn’t an assessment you could have much of an objection to.
As the betting suggests, this is a tricky race to call – I’d probably have Es Perfecto as my marginal favourite, and he is currently a huge [9/1] chance on the exchange, so do what you have to do there – but I did think First Street and Leave Of Absence were very fairly priced at 14s if you shop around.
The latter, very lightly-raced in bumpers and hurdles, ran well enough when second to Iberico Lord on his chase/stable debut here, and looks on a fair mark on 127. It sounds as though connections are expecting improvement as he steps up in trip, too.
There is little doubt that First Street is by far the best handicapped horse in here – but the problem is that is on his hurdles form.
Suffice to say his three chasing starts to date – he hasn’t exactly looked a natural – have been underwhelming for a hurdler rated 152 in his pomp and who finished second to a then 141-rated State Man in the 2022 County Hurdle.
But he is down to a chase mark of 130 now, they would have given him a full jumping MOT in the last two months (and that has included a wind op) and Nico De Boinville will look to creep him into this from off the pace.
Yes, I think those two are the ones to concentrate at the current prices, and I couldn’t put you off dutching both at 14s.
I wouldn’t lay the 14s First Street in particular, though that is only available in one spot, so I can hardly tip him. You can back him though, if you want.
With Leave Of Absence out and down to the dead-eight, I am very surprised that Es Perfecto is as big as [15/2] and a general 7s.
I have backed him each way, as I would have him vying for favouritism.
Sandown’s Tolworth Hurdle is now Aintree’s Formby Hurdle and there is a good field of seven for this.
One shy of the optimum eight for each-way punters, but three firms on the Oddschecker grid are giving an extra place.
If you can get on (so for that reason, tipping 1,2,3 isn’t an option).
The ground is good to soft, soft in places at Aintree, and it should pretty much stay that way if the forecast is correct.
Potters Charm ranges from [13/8] to [2/1] in here but he certainly doesn’t lack for a bit of hype about him, though that is often the case from this yard.
And an official mark of 146 looks ludicrously big to me.
To be fair, he looked a fair tool in a good time at Cheltenham, but I wouldn’t go overboard about the form myself (the second and third were humped next time) and even the 2s is plenty short enough, especially back considerably in trip around here.
In UK novices’ hurdle terms, this is a very strong race but I wouldn’t have a firm betting view.
Maybe [13/2] Country Mile can reverse Haydock form last month with Roadlesstravelled (he was beaten three lengths but made a mistake at the last) after seemingly an improved effort in victory at Cheltenham last time, but I don’t plan to have a bet myself as it stands.
And that price is only available in one place, anyway.
By the way, Dan Skelton had four in here at the five-day stage and he relies on just Country Mile, for what it is worth.
There is no doubt that The Jukebox Man was impressive in beating Masaccio, who re-opposes here, by 2 lengths on his chasing debut at Newbury and he was also the best hurdler in here, too.
However, he was occasionally a little bit too brave and exuberant for his own good – though very good in the main – and you sense he has a mistake in him.
Mind you, this is a novices’ chase and they all do, and I think his price of [11/10] is probably fair enough.
Some may argue that Masaccio, who only has 2 lengths to find with him, is too big at [5/1] – that’s a fair price differential – but the second favourite is Hyland at [7/2] after he improved to make all at Cheltenham last time.
I doubt whether he will get it easy on the front end here, even if he gets to the front end.
This is not my kind of race though, as White Rhino has done it well in handicap company coming into this race and is clearly progressive, while Welcom To Cartries is probably better than he showed at Sandown last time (the early 20s was taken there).
A dangerous dead-eight in the Rowland Meyrick so I wouldn’t be betting each-way myself at this stage.
That said the ground shouldn’t change at all from the current good to soft, good in places.
I swear I saw Cruz Control confirmed for the Tommy Whittle on Thursday morning, only to be taken out before the 9.30am deadline, and he heads the betting at [11/4] here.
That is understandable but, ever the optimist (not) I was hoping for a bit bigger than 4s about main market rival Some Scope, even if this race cut up a fair bit.
I’ll probably come back to Some Scope on the update.
Maybe some [9/2] or bigger will be tempt me in for a horse that shaped well enough at Newcastle last time and got dropped another 1lb for it.
I doubt he will drift, but let’s see (update – he hasn’t, so I should have snapped up the 4s….).
Right, no last-minute coughs and stone bruises please, as this is some match-up.
With all due respect to the Greatwood Hurdle winner and 109-rated Flat horse Burdett Road, if either he or Lump Sum wins this, then it will be a massive prick in the leftover Christmas balloon.
But I guess they are not being priced up as complete no-hopers at 20s and 40s respectively.
This surely is a two-way go though, unless they allow Burdett Road too much rope, which could happen I suppose if the big two play cat and mouse with each other, and both get beaten in a dog of a race.
From being the best hurdler some of us have ever seen in the flesh – I was blown away when present on his hurdling debut at Sandown in December 2021 – Constitution Hill has become more of a soap character than a film star in the press, which is sad to see.
He was a superstar, and hopefully still is.
One thing is for sure is that if Nicky Henderson can get this horse back in the shape to win this race after a year off – a time period that has seen him put in two woeful racecourse gallops, whistle like Roger Whittaker (one for the oldies), have a wind op, a colic scare and god knows what else – then this will be up there with the See You Then years in the 80s.
Can the horse do it?
Of course, he can. The same horse that won the 2023 Champion Hurdle will win this.
Would I bet on it at 5/4?
No.
Not after what I, and everyone else, saw in his Newbury gallop with Sir Gino last month.
We probably haven’t seen the best of Lossiemouth either, and I wouldn’t be worried about her coming down in trip after three straight Grade 1 successes over 2m4f.
She doesn’t lack boot, as she showed in winning the Hatton’s Grace last time, and the Unibet Hurdle last season.
This is a mare who will be razor-sharp and with just the one blemish on her dance card, like Constitution Hill (note for those continually saying he is unbeaten – this is pedantic (or whatever the right term is), I know, but he really isn’t).
You obviously don’t need a bet here. Two horses at or near their peak will suffice, but Lossiemouth is understandably winning the battle for favouritism.
Lossiemouth opened up at evens, with Constitution Hill at [6/5], and that gap looks set to widen. Indeed, the Mullins’ mare is now best at [10/11].
At around 1.40pm on Monday one firm made the Henderson horse [11/8], in conjunction with his lengthening odds on the exchange (matched at a high of 2.58 there for small money).
That was soon trimmed into [5/4], though.
This is a race I will probably add to in the next 24 hours, as I will flesh out the details, for most of the runners. Clearly, I think any of the 11 could win it.
So, accordingly, I could not resist an each-way bet on General En Chef, could I?
The 100s was taken early on Thursday, as was the 80s (though that price has just resurfaced in a place), and he is now available at 66s, four places, with a quartet of firms.
The 80s, three places, in one spot looks far too big.
Alternatively, take the 66s, four places.
Back him where you can at those prices, if you can.
I appreciate plenty may not be able to.
Ideally, I’d probably want the extra place at 66s on my side, and I think even the 50s on those four-place terms is acceptable.
UPDATE 4.42PM Monday: He is now available at 100s , four places. See Oddschecker for details and current prices (the chest-puffing 100s was cut to 80s soon enough, and then into 50s).
Now, don’t get me wrong, he fully deserves to be the outsider on all known evidence – he is comfortably the lowest-rated horse in here, and I can see why he is viewed as more of a candidate for last than first – but perhaps not quite as big a price as he is, especially from an enhanced each-way perspective.
Okay, he was beaten 6 ½ lengths off a mark of 148 in the Coral Gold Trophy, but he shaped a lot better than the bare form there – he actually traded at 1.5 when coasting 2 out – and he has the faint whiff of a shock about him.
He was actually backed from 16s to 9s on the show at Newbury (in spite of sweating up noticeably beforehand apparently, though I have no idea if this is a common trait – let me know if you do), a race in which he was ridden by a jockey I had never heard of.
I don’t know a lot about the horse or his jockey then, so I asked French expert and owner James Finch (the idea of this column is to try to be a little bit different than just a tipping vehicle) about the combination.
And what he had to say about the jockey, who apparently hasn’t ridden since December 3, was particularly amusing.
Benjamin Gelhay actually rode a winner for Finch in November, but he seems a rather laid-back character.
The jockey, that is, but Finch may be as well.
Finch said: “He is in his mid-30s, a good jockey but gets very few rides at the big French meetings and he seems to be happy pottering around.
“We had thought he would ride the horse again at the Cagnes meeting, and maybe a few others, but he hasn’t ridden there.
“He’s mainly a provincial jockey. He said in a Paris Turf interview in November that he only got the ride on General En Chef as they sent him to a very small meeting (think Point to Point type set-up!) for his confidence and Auteuil was on the same day.
“He only has 120-150 rides a year, hasn’t ridden since December 3. In that same interview he said he is happy to get his 12 winners a year so he can pay the bills and carry on as a jockey!
“He’s probably underselling himself though, he can ride as well as a lot of the regular Auteuil boys and girls,”
Not exactly ideal (perhaps) but at least he doesn’t appear to suffer from nerves….
Apart from the Newbury run, what about the horse?
“The horse used to be a bit of a headcase, sometimes he would blast off in front and not come back, sometimes he would, but Gelhay seems to be able to get him to settle.
“He is quite an exuberant character, and hasn’t always finished off his races, but his third in the Grade 1 Grand Steeple Chase-de Paris (over 3m6f) at Auteuil is solid form.
“And his Compeigne win over 2m3f in October is also solid, too.”
The first two in that Auteuil race again filled the top two spots in a Grade 1 last month, a race in which Juntos Ganamos, also in here at 20s, finished third.
I couldn’t get any first-time headgear stats for the trainers – the horse now wears cheekpieces to go with the hood – as Raceform Interactive and Proform don’t cover France.
This will probably be the quickest ground he has raced on but Timeform have him winning on good and it was good to soft at Newbury.
Listen, I am only having a very small bet myself at this stage – so feel free to follow me in, if you can – but I have had wilder swings.
Let’s hope the cheekpieces can be transformational for the horse and the laid-back Gelhay can galvanise himself, come late, hit the front after the last, and stay there.
We can but dream, and I just hope this 3m test around here could suit a horse who is seemingly trip-versatile.
A further update on this race will follow, as stated above.
We could get non-runners if the ground dries to good, as seems likely (they surely won’t water, but those updated stick readings are curious ).
It sounds like the participation of the JP pair of Corbetts Cross and favourite Spillane’s Tower could be under review in the next 72 hours.
General En Chef at [80/1] each way, three places, in 2.30pm at Kempton. Available in just one place.
OR (more realistically)
General En Chef at [66/1] each way, four places, in 2.30pm at Kempton. Available in four places
Going: Good, good to soft in places
Going stick reading – Chase: 6.8; Hurdle: 6.6 (6.30am today)
Weather: Dry
Rails:
Going : Good to soft, soft in places
Going stick reading – 4. 1 today
Weather: Dry
Rails:
Going : Good to soft, good in places
Going stick reading – Chase: 5.5; Hurdle: 5.7 (7.45am today)
Weather: Dry
Rails:
GOING: Good to Yielding. , Yielding in places (Chase) & Yielding, Good to Yielding in places (Hurdle) – 8.10am today
Other details:
Mainly cloudy with some sunny spells & remaining mild & mainly dry. All days – Chase Track set to the innermost Chase line. Day 1 Hurdles – Rail set 35 yards out from the innermost Hurdle line. Day 2 Hurdles – Rail set 30 yards out from the innermost Hurdle line. Day 3 Hurdles – Rail set 5 yards out from the innermost Hurdle line. Day 4 Hurdles – Rail set to the innermost Hurdle line. All distances as advertised.
2.30pm Kempton: Spillane’s Tower, Juntos Ganamos, The Real Whacker
Noel George and Amanda Zetterholm cheekpieces – General En Chef, 2.30pm Kempton – N/A (see copy)
Kieran Burke, hood – Rascallion, 3.05pm Kempton 0-8 (since 2014)
Stuart Edmunds, cheekpieces – Majestic Jameela, 11.55pm Aintree 7-35 (2016)
Ben Pauling, blinkers – Samazul, 12.27pm Wetherby 2-40 (2015)
James Owen, blinkers – Grozni, 2.45pm Wetherby 0-7 (2024)
Tom Lacey, cheekpieces – Let’s Sail Away, 3.20pm Wetherby 9-39 (2017)
12.45pm Kempton: Range, Asta La Pasta?, El Rio, Leave Of Absence, Fire Flyer (prom), Tapley (prom), Leader In The Park
1.05pm Aintree: Celtic Dino, Miami Magic, Roadlesstravelled
1.20pm Kempton: Hyland, The Jukebox Man
1.35pm Wetherby: Tahmuras (prom), Cruz Control, Young Buster, Good Boy Bobby
1.55pm Kempton: Burdett Road, Constitution Hill
2.30pm Kempton: Bravemansgame, Il Est Francais, Juntos Ganamos, The Real Whacker (prom), General En Chef?
*************************************************
If you fancy the supplemented The Real Whacker in the King George, then I have some good news.
The stable are in excellent nick.
Considering they are a small outfit, they are 10 from 50 this term, and four of those winners have been since December 17, at odds of 40-1, 10-1, 6-1 and 2s.
And, from an admittedly very small sample, they have only dipped below a 25 per cent strike monthly rate once since August, when 2-13 in November, with five placed second or third.
If The Real Whacker gets chinned, it won’t be because of the stable form.
Neville also runs Mahons Glory in the 3.40pm at Kempton.
Excellent: Patrick Neville
Good: Willie Mullins (very good), Olly Murphy, James Owen, Warren Greatrex, Joseph O’Brien (very good), Alan King
Fair: Paul Nicholls, Fergal O’Brien,, Kim Bailey, Ben Pauling , Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Anthony Honeyball, Greenall and Guerriero, Nicky Henderson, Henry De Bromhead, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Venetia Williams, Stuart Edmunds (no recent winners), Sandy Thomson, Tom Lacey, Sam England, Richard Hobson (no winners and very few runners, so borderline moderate), Sam Thomas, Dan Skelton
Moderate: Nobody with runners in Boxing Day ITV races. It is Christmas, after all….
Don’t know: Fiona Needham, Emmet Mullins, George and Zetterholm, D Cottin (although recent Cheltenham winner), Jimmy Mangan, Suzy Smith
This weeks Racing Room podcast features: Intro Chat & Weekend Racing Review (0-8mins) Rory Campbell’s Betting Syndicate: Take 3…
WITH ITV Racing showing 21 races from Friday to Sunday inclusive, it promises to be…
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