TONY CALVIN: 8/1 chance now the most attractive Friday bet after late defection

I mentioned yesterday about how Doncaster really shouldn’t be a four-day fixture – it just doesn’t have the depth of races, or indeed the horse population, and it is seriously padded out – and the cracks have certainly surfaced on Friday’s card.

We had an excessive five juvenile races on Thursday, and Day Two is undeniably a disappointing turn-out.

I am happy to write chapter and verse on any contest if I can see a worthwhile betting angle but 40 runners in the five ITV races – and three of those failed to muster eight runners – did not immediately strike me as premier punting material.

Anyway, let’s see what we have got to play with. It was a case of shortening prices, and late no-shows, in the main.

By the way, the ground has eased at Doncaster after an unexpected 5mm of rain on Wednesday. See below for full details.

1.50pm Doncaster  – Speculative dutch on the front runners could pay dividends

First up on the telly box is a dead-eight 1m6f handicap and it was a case of “Difference of Opinion, Geoffrey” – Winner Takes All would go down a storm these days, though I don’t suppose it would be allowed on air with its odds-based format – when the betting first opened on Wednesday.

East India Dock ranged from [13/8] to [11/4], with Subsequent favoured in the market at 2s in some places.

And there were a few disagreements lower down the lists, too.

Each-way punters had obviously better be wary here but if all eight go then Faylaq and Dream Harder would make obvious win and place claims at 12s and 25s respectively.

They were the only two possible pace angles I identified, too.

Faylaq, given a shocker when sixth from off the pace in the Northumberland Vase, has improved for the adoption of more prominent tactics in recent starts and he did well to finish second to La Yakel (a horse who has always promised to be a decent handicapper) on heavy ground at Hamilton last time.

This better ground will suit him, and he has also one good piece of course form too, when fourth in a 0-105 over 1m2f at this meeting in 2022.

The only downside to his recent form is that he has gone up 6lb in the weights, though of course the 8yo has been rated much higher in the past. The 16s about him was taken on Wednesday, and the 14s hoovered up on Thursday morning. And probably with it the best betting angle in the race.

Jamie Spencer gets on board Dream Harder for the first time and there aren’t many better front-running jockeys than him if he decides to go forward (granted, he doesn’t do it very often).

Dream Harder is unproven over this far but he shaped well over an extended 1m5f at Chelmsford earlier in the season and he has been running okay of late, just being touched off in the Shergar Cup and running respectably at Southwell last time.

He has worn cheekpieces for his last five starts here, but they are left off here, which suggests connections believe he maybe could do with a change. At 25s, he looks overpriced.

I don’t have a strong enough opinion to stick up a bet here, but personally I have had a very small dutch on the above pair, and will probably do a reverse forecast in the hope that they go on and the pace holds up.

We can but dream.

2.25pm Doncaster – Gone silent on Mr Chaplin now the 16s has disappeared

Jonquil is the Mr Sexy in the Flying Scotsman, the Sir Michael Stoute-trained, Juddmonte-owned 2yo doing very well to overcome trouble in running to win at Sandown on his debut.

The well-related Lope De Vega colt is predictably all the rage in the betting here at a top-priced [5/4], , and he may well win, but you are paying a fair price to get with him considering his bare form is probably inferior – the Esher form has been untested, to be fair, with none of the beaten horses running since  – to a few in here.

But the remaining [11/8] was snapped up on Thursday morning.

Mr Chaplin was the overpriced one in here at 16s (in three places) after his fifth in the Acomb Stakes, but the market corrected that generosity on Wednesday evening, and he is now available at a general 11s.

I actually tipped him at 16s in my first draft of this column – I write my initial copy through the afternoon immediately after the decs, and then sub and edit in the following morning to accommodate fresh ideas and changing prices etc – but 11s does not excite me so much.

But he is still a player, clearly. I mentioned his York run but actually, his impressive burst to win a Goodwood nursery off a mark of 88 was a much better effort.

Given that I think the favourite is underpriced at a general [5/4] you can pretty much make a cogent case for the rest at their respective prices, so it doesn’t rate a particularly appealing betting contest to me now, especially with seven runners taking out the each-way angle (though four firms on the Oddschecker grid are paying 1,2,3).

The Waco Kid is owned by a syndicate of ex Betfair colleagues, so I hope he cops now I have missed the Mr Chaplin price…

3.00pm Doncaster – Bruised foot scuppers the intended bet

Yet another 2yo race – seven of the first 11 races at this meeting have been juvenile contests, what is that all about? – but at least this has one attracted 12 runners.

If you shop around it is [10/3] the field, though on Monday morning the two currently on offer at that price were available at 4s and [9/2].

Again, there was a fair bit of disagreement in the early market – the firm that went [13/8] about East India Dock in the opener went only [11/4] about Magnum Force here when he was [9/2] elsewhere – and that is fine.

But this is yet another race which is incredibly close-knit on form to date, with the lower-rated horses like Coto De Caza and Zayer progressive types with further improvement in them.

Arizona Blaze looked a wild enough price at 16s in Wednesday’s markets as this is a horse who was third in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes two starts ago, which just about made him the form choice I would have thought.

Of course, he ran well below that form when chinned late on in a sales race at York last time – he traded at 1.04 in running there – and I could have definitely seen the drop down to 5f suiting this Norfolk Stakes third.

I am talking about him in the past tense for a reason.

He was all set to be my sole bet on the card at 12s (there was 14s in a place) but he has just got pulled out with a bruised foot at 10.31am on Thursday morning.

In his absence, I don’t have a pressing need to get involved in a race that I can see six or seven winning, and certainly 20s poke Maw Lam is one of them if she ever consents to start on terms.

3.35pm Doncaster – 5/1 Trueshan appeals most

Run in memory of the St Leger-loving, former Racing Post journalist Howard Wright this year, the Doncaster Cup rarely attracts a big field and the 140k prize has got a mere six runners this time around.

And, even then, finding the winner is no easy task.

The John and Thady Gosden pair of Sweet William and Gregory vie for favouritism but, if I have a lean in the race, it would probably be towards Trueshan at 5s.

I was surprised to see he was the old man of the party here as an 8yo, but he has been running creditably of late and the 5s is probably a touch on the generous side in this Group 2 company.

Beaten at [2/9] by Coltrane in this race in 2022, he took care of Sweet William in this contest last year, and maybe the old boy has another big one in him, hailing from a stable in good nick.

But will I back him myself at 5s? No probably not, so there endeth the conversation (I only used the terms endeth because I watched The Untouchables last weekend).

4.10pm Doncaster – 8/1 Meribella to keep up owners good record at track

Another fillies’ handicap, so I guess it isn’t too surprising that we only got seven runners. It is disappointing all the same for a 65k pot.

It is a something and nothing race really, but the pace map – though Ayyab has gone forward once in the past – led me to the chances of Meribella, 8s in a place, but [15/2] acceptable.

She ran a stinker on the July course two starts back (though I will forgive any horse a poor run at that track) but at least she ran better on her following start at Newbury before being given a break, a race where she didn’t get to the front and met trouble in running before staying on to finish fourth.

Eased 1lb for that run, and freshened up by a near two-month break, I would hope that connections look to go from the front on her here.

She is a well-connected Sea The Stars filly and a mark of 87 gives her definite claims, and the owners hopefully have requested that Ralph Beckett get her primed for this.

It may be something and nothing (sorry for replicating that term), but the owners are four from 14 at this course (Meribella was going to run in the May Hill here last season before soft ground intervened), and maybe they are locals.

I tried to find out but to no avail, but the trainer (who has done excellently for the Aykroyds) won with their Golden Myrrh here in June.

I wouldn’t say Meribella is a standout bet at 8s, but she is probably the best one on an underwhelming punting ITV offering

3.55pm Salisbury – Shallow pickings in Poole

The rescheduled Dick Poole gets on ITV here after Salisbury lost the original meeting because of a torrential morning downpour on the day.

Three once-raced winners add to this guessing game here – another Dead-Eight alert, each way punters – and it is no surprise that they fill the first three places in the market, with Newmarket winner Tabiti heading the market for Beckett at 2s in just one spot.

I could rabbit on about the more experienced duo of Magic Mild and Miss Fascinator making more appeal in the market, but I am not going to have a bet, so I’ll end it there.

BETS

In the late absence of Arizona Blaze, there is nothing doing here.

I make no apologies for keeping the punting powder dry on Friday, as there is a packed weekend of racing in store, here and in Ireland,  and there will be far better betting opportunities than those offered up by ITV’s six contests.

Thankfully, I am given the scope to do a Kevin Pullein occasionally, which is the honest thing to do if you are not betting seriously yourself.

Let’s be honest, it is a pretty poor ITV offering from a betting perspective.

Good luck if you are getting involved, though.  If you are, I’ll summarise my best thoughts below.

Meribella at 8s in the 4.10pm is now my idea of the best bet, while I will dutch Faylaq and Dream Harder in the opener to minimal stakes, and Trueshan at 5s is solid enough.

If I see any more concrete tips or bets in the next 24 hours, I will update this column and flag it on X.

Go well, and good luck.

GOING AND WEATHER (updated 8am Friday)

DONCASTER

Going: Round course: Good to soft, good in places; Straight course: Good, good to soft in places

Going stick: 6.3 at 7.45am Friday

Weather:  Dry, sunny and chilly (15-16 degrees) on Friday.

SALISBURY

Going:  Good to soft, good in places

Going stick: 7.1 at 6.30am on Friday,

Weather:  Dry, sunny and chilly (15 degrees)

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Lucinda Russell cheekpieces – Evaluation, 1.50pm Doncaster; 2-44 since 2016

Richard Hughes blinkers – Rare Change, 5.20pm Doncaster; 12-113 since 2015

PACE MAPS (ITV races):

1.50pm Doncaster: Dream Harder? Faylaq?,

2.25pm Doncaster (little evidence to go on): Benevento, Mukaber, The Waco Kid (prominent), Symbol Of Honour (prom)

3.00pm Doncaster: Aesterius, King’s Call, Mr Lightside, Tropical Storm, Zayer

3.35pm Doncaster:  Gregory, Point Lonsdale, Trueshan?

4.10pm Doncaster: Meribella, Ayyab?

3.55pm Salisbury: Tabiti (1), Magic Mild (2)

TRAINERFORM (not including Thursday’s results)

Excellent: James Fanshawe, Alan King

Good: Andrew Balding, William Haggas, Aidan O’Brien, Hugo Palmer, Ralph Beckett, Tom Clover (very good), John and Thady Gosden (maybe more fair), Peter Chapple-Hyam, Sir Michael Stoute, Raphael Freire, Mick Appleby (very good), Sean Woods (another winner on Wednesday), Archie Watson

Fair:  Karl Burke, Ed Walker, Simon and Ed Crisford, Eve Johnson Houghton, Clive Cox (needs more winners), Adrian Nicholls (no winners though), Rod Millman, Ed Dunlop, Ian Williams, Jim Goldie (winner on Wednesday), Ed Bethell (winner on Wednesday), Adrian Murray (winner on Wednesday), Ger Lyons, David Evans (welcome 10-1 winner on Thursday), Roger Varian (certainly moderate in strike rate terms, though plenty running well)

Moderate: Kevin Ryan (18-1 winner on Thursday night was very welcome, first in a while), Charlie Appleby (for him, anyway, though he was back among the winners with a brace on Thursday), Lucinda Russell (arguably more fair), Diego Dias (very few runners), Adam Nicol (only two runners), Kevin Philippart De Foy (needs more winners, though many placed and two near-misses)