AK Latest, Horse Racing

By Tony Calvin - 30 September 2024

TONY CALVIN: 66s, 33s and 12s chances are my three overpriced ones for the Arc in The Monday Club

I had a good look at the Arc on Sunday and Monday, and came to the conclusion there were three overpriced ones if you wanted a bet at this stage. I'll wait myself but I was tempted. Good luck.

UPDATE at 10.50am Wednesday – now is the time for a win-only bet at 33s

As you can see below, I suggested that three horses were overpriced in my opening Arc piece on Monday.

Al Riffa is now 11s from 12s (that is only available in two spots, and he is a general 10s chance) and the 66s was also taken about Zarakem (now 50s in two places).

But the 33s about Continuous remains in seven places on the Oddschecker grid. In fact, he actually drifted to 40s with two firms on Tuesday before being trimmed in.

Strangely perhaps, Continuous was one of eight left in Saturday’s Prix Du Cadran on Tuesday, a race in which his trainer also has the [4/9] chance Kyprios and Point Lonsdale.

I hate double-entries.

However, O’Brien pretty much confirmed Continuous as on target for the Arc on Tuesday – and he was duly taken out of the Cadran on Wednesday morning.

Speaking at a press conference organised by France Galop, O’Brien said: “We think the most likely two are Los Angeles and Continuous.

“Christophe [Soumillion] rode Continuous the last day and it’s possible that he will ride him again.

“We were very happy with his run in the trial [third in the Prix Foy]. It didn’t suit him to make the running, but it was obviously a slow pace, and we think he will be much better in a strongly run race and we’ve been happy with him since.

“We’ve trained him with an autumn campaign in mind and last year’s race was a slowly-run race. We always had it in our minds that hopefully he would be better this year and we would prepare him better for the race.”

With the Cadran option gone, I think the time has come to get this ground-versatile Classic winner (the ground is heading towards good to soft all over) onside win-only at 33s, even if that is an ante-post capacity and the risks that entails.

The case for him is detailed below, and it is fair to say that a reproduction of his fifth in the race last year gives him a far better chance than those seven quotes of 33s imply.

He didn’t get an ideal passage, as stated, last year and the first three home that day were probably all better than this mob (as it stands), the fifth home had run Equinox to a head on his previous start, and the sixth,  Group 1 winner Bay Bridge, was 2 ½ lengths away in sixth.

If he is in A1-shape, and he gets a decent draw and a strong pace to aim at, then he will surely outrun his odds at the very least.

Of course, he has failed to catch fire yet this season.

But he needed it badly on his return at Royal Ascot (connections were not too downbeat by that run, despite his price), he showed surprising pace perhaps in beating a subsequent Group 3 winner over 1m2f on good ground at the Curragh, and there was one main excuse for his below-par third in the Foy last time.

Now, that was undoubtedly disappointing, but he made the running there in that small field and that was the only time he had done so since winning on his debut.

He wants a waiting ride off a strong pace, and luck in running, which hopefully he gets on Sunday.

As expected, Bluestocking was supplemented at a cost of 120,000 euros on Wednesday morning – her price now ranges from 10s to 14s – taking the current field to 18.

Opera Singer was taken out of the race on Wednesday, and the Prix de l’Opera too. And French Oaks winner Sparkling Plenty wasn’t supplemented, as some were expecting.

Look De Vega and Los Angeles have been the shorteners at the head of the market since Monday, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we actually saw Auguste Rodin and Luxembourg take their chance for O’Brien on Sunday.

The going stick suggests the ground is firmly in the good to soft range now, and the forecast looks mainly dry this week, though we could get rain on the day itself.

Good luck.

Dry forecast all round

I am on the wagon at the moment – that will change in no uncertain terms when I embark upon a 60th birthday cruise (not mine obviously, as I am a sprightly and youthful 55, as evidenced by the podcasts) next month – so I was bored and sober on Sunday, and I thought I would take an opening look at this weekend’s Arc.

Bizarrely, they have two forfeit stages, one on Monday and another on Tuesday (presumably the latter is for the dithering types), and then connections get to supplement on Wednesday (for a very punchy 120,000 euros, with Bluestocking looking likely to be inserted), with the final declarations and draw made, and jockeys announced, on Thursday morning.

Surely, 72-hour decs is the way forward for the big races.

Thanks for Ande Humphreys’ tweet for that timeline of events.

The latest Turftrax going update on Monday says it has already dried out to good to soft, soft in places – though, the official going is “tres souple”, whatever that means…. – and it looks like a decent week in Paris in store.

It is largely dry at the moment, with some light showers around on Monday and Wednesday, with temperatures between 16 and 18 degrees.

Maybe we will get good to soft ground on Sunday, though some longer-range forecasts suggest a fair bit of rain could land on the day itself.

The current forecasts may entice Aidan O’Brien to run Auguste Rodin, when the trainer seemed set to rely on Los Angeles and Continuous last week. Mind you, he also left in Luxembourg and Opera Singer.

4/1 the field in a very open renewal

As for the race itself, it is an open renewal, with 4s the field, with Prix Niel winner Sosie heading the market with AKBets at that top price.

All bookmakers are offering 1/5 the odds 1,2,3 at this stage.

On Monday morning there were 73 still in the race, and now we are down to just 18, with perhaps Bluestocking to follow on Wednesday.

There were no surprises at the first forfeit stage, with the likes of Economics being kept back for Ascot and continuing to ply his trade at 1m2f.

Of course, there are some proven 1m4f heavyweights on the missing lists for various reasons, but it still looks a decent, competitive renewal.

City Of Troy is the most obvious absentee of the horses proven over the trip, followed by a trio of geldings; runaway King Edward VII winner and Juddmonte runner-up Calandagan, clear-cut King George scorer Goliath, and Rebel’s Romance, who gained his fifth Group 1 success in Cologne recently.

Never Mind The Bollocks

Never mind the bollocks, courtesy of the Sex Pistols, let’s concentrate on those running, though I appreciate plenty of punters will be more than happy to wait until the final field and an often-important draw on Thursday.

And the market does have a static look to it, at the moment.

Let’s see if we can spot a potential springer, though.

Or three.

We may as well start with the Prix Niel, as Sosie assumed favouritism for the Arc after beating Delius (first start since mid-July) and the odds-on Look De Vega in that race in an impressive manner.

Of course, it is very much a guessing game as to who was the straightest and fittest of the three there.

Look De Vega was having his first start since winning the French Derby by 2 lengths on June 2nd (Sosie a neck behind in third), so logic suggests that Niel run was surely and purely a stepping stone to the major goal.

But it was a pretty underwhelming performance all the same and, three from three at the track, you’d have to agree with Sosie’s position at the head of the market, with French Derby winner Look De Vega and Delius [11/2] and [10/1] respectively with AKBets.

The official going descriptions may indicate the (possible) drying conditions may be against Sosie but Timeform paint a different picture that certainly shouldn’t deter his punters, not on that score anyway.

They have him winning on good ground on his debut, and his three subsequent successes all coming on good to soft. In fact, his two defeats have come on ground they called soft and heavy.

Irish Champion Stakes another key trial

The betting suggests the Irish Champion Stakes should be the next port of call for analysis.

As mentioned above, it has yet to be confirmed whether the neck runner-up to Economics, Auguste Rodin, 25s in two places but a general 20s, takes his chance.

The betting suggests he is odds-against to run, as he will surely be edging towards single figures if getting the all-clear if it continues to dry out. But they may decide to stay on track for the Japan Cup as his career swansong.

We know that the third and fourth from the Leopardstown race, Shin Emperor and Los Angeles, are going there on Sunday, all being well, and the market is giving them maximum respect, as top prices of [13/2] and [15/2] respectively.

The former price is only available in three places, and the latter in just one.

The Japanese horse probably ran the best Arc trial to these eyes that day, even if he is one that we are all playing catch-up with on video.

We obviously can all see his strong-finishing third in the Japan Derby in Tokyo on May 26 on Youtube, though – so he had an even longer absence prior to his prep run than Look De Vega’s – so it is hard not to warm to him back up to 1m4f on Sunday.

No-one is going to be remotely surprised if this full brother to 2020 Arc winner Sottsass breaks the Japanese hoodoo in this race, a roll of defeat and misfortune headed up by Orfevre, whose agonizing second in the 2012 Arc is responsible for the greatest racing video of all time, but included even tastier chinned contenders such as El Condor Pasa and Nakayama Festa, similarly narrow runners-up in 1999 and 2010 respectively.

But even that [13/2] – he is as short as 5s elsewhere – is probably just about his true price, no?

Los Angeles is a more familiar name to most, and you didn’t need to be Inspector Morse (other police men available, as indeed are police women, with the likes of Juliet Bravo, America’s Angie Dickinson and, most significantly, PC Viv Martella of The Bill) to work out that 1m4f is a fair more suitable test for a horse who probably wouldn’t have looked out of place in the St Leger.

But for me he maybe lacks the vital kick and change of pace you often need in this race, especially if it does dry out.

He is Mr Solid, though.

While I am dealing with Los Angeles, I may as well comment on the other O’Brien entries.

The three overpriced horses start here

The current thinking is that Luxembourg and Opera Singer (probably goes for the Prix de l’Opera) won’t run but Continuous, fifth in the race last year, is on course, and he is arguably the most interesting outsider at [33/1] in six places.

A commanding winner of the St Leger before finishing fifth last year when a [14/1] chance – he certainly didn’t get an ideal trip that day and he did well to be beaten just 3 ½ lengths given where he came from entering the straight – he has had a very low-key season to date.

Forget his starting price of [13/8] in the Hardwicke on his reappearance, as connections believed he would need the run after an early-season setback – and they said so beforehand – and he did what he was entitled to do over 1m2f next time.

Again, his third, when odds-on, in the Foy last time was some way detached from his 2023 best but they went from the front on him there and I get the impression they have been working back from this race all season and you will see him at his peak here.

If there is a significant shorter in here, maybe it is him.

Bluestocking and Al Riffa are [12/1] pokes and, as with many in the race, are impossible to dismiss.

From a betting point of view, given the prize money om offer, it makes mathematical sense to pay 120,000 euros to supplement Bluestocking, though I remember saying the same about Ralph Beckett’s St Leger runner You Got To Me and she finished stone last.

But Bluestocking is Mrs Reliable, maybe a Juddmonte fourth apart, though that was not a bad effort given the way that race unfolded.

Does the Vermeille winner have the necessary minerals to win though? I am not convinced. And you obviously have to wait on running plans for her, anyway. She shouldn’t actually be quoted in the betting at this stage.

Does Al Riffa have the necessary biff?

Al Riffa is the coming force and, along with the 33s Continuous, is probably the other overpriced horse in here at 12s (available in three places).

They have always held the horse in the highest regard (not surprisingly given he won the Group 1 National Stakes at two) but they have struggled with him until recently.

And he has certainly blossomed.

He comes here via an unconventional route, as he ran in the States in June, but he obviously ran a career-best when a length second to City Of Troy in a strong Eclipse and then he sauntered home in the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Berlin in Germany last time, the first time he raced over this 1m4f trip.

The distaff side of his pedigree strongly suggested it would suit. And suit it did.

I wouldn’t attach any importance to the fact that two recent, subsequent Arc winners were successful in that race before winning this prize – especially as they won it the year after, though Marienbard and Danedream did it in the same season in 2002 and 2012 –  and you have to point out that the runner-up was a well-beaten third to Fantastic Moon (a 25s poke in here) and Dubai Honour next time.

But go and have a look at that win on Youtube and you have to be mightily impressed with the manner in which he opened up in the closing stages.

There was plenty of biff about Al Riffa there, and he is unexposed over this trip.

The one negative for me is that the Japanese owners have insisted Yutaka Take rides (he is older than me – see above), and not usual pilot Dylan Browne McMonagle.

McMonagled mutineered and that’s an issue

Call me a one-eyed Englander, but I’d want the McMonagled-mutineered (one for the Paul McGann and WW1 fans) on him all day long (it doesn’t really work but it is staying in….)

It is 20s bar the above and that brings in Mqse De Sevigne, unbeaten this season. She has never raced over this 1m4f trip but her pedigree gives you encouragement she will stay, even if she is by Siyouni.

It is quite a sad indictment of the UK 1m4f scene that the only British-trained runner is the 66s poke Sunway, a horse nought from six this season, for all he has been placed in two classics.

David Menuisier would want the forecast to be very wrong for his mud-lover or for that possible rain on Sunday to arrive early and land in stair rods (google it -I just did to make sure it was what I thought it meant).

He is pretty hard to fancy, as are all the others I haven’t mentioned, though with aren’t dealing with absolute no-hopers here.

Z is not dead, Baby

The longest-priced horses in the line-up are only 66s, and I suppose Zarakem at that price (in two places) is arguably far too generous if forgiving his run in the Juddmonte.

Yes, he is number three on the Monday Club overpriced list.

I’d be tempted to forgive and forget the York run as he was staggeringly weak in the betting there, suggesting an issue in the lead-up perhaps, but this is a 1m4f/1m5f winner who won here in the spring and had previously finished a ¾ length second to Auguste Rodin in the 1m2f Prince Of Wales’.

Three against the field

So, yes, he features in my three overpriced horses in the Arc.

That list consists of Al Riffa at 12s, Continuous at 33s and Zarakem at 66s.

I will only load the punting gun and pull the trigger when I know the final fields though, even if that means taking shorter prices down the line. Which I will probably have to do.

There are now eight races on ITV this Saturday, and three of those are early-closers.

Newmarket’s Sun Chariot at 2.40pm had 18 in the race on Monday morning – the Gosdens (five), Aidan O’Brien (3) and son Joseph (3) were responsible for 11 of those – and at that stage Inspiral and Tamfana were the [5/2] joint favourites.

It is now down to 11.

The second early-closer was Ascot’s 180k 7f heritage handicap at 3.35pm.

I couldn’t find any ante-post betting for this on Monday morning but there were 62 in the race at the time and there would have been minimal interest, so that is understandable.

The numbers have been trimmed to 36 now.

The 6f Listed Two Year Old Trophy at Redcar at 3.20pm has come down from 85 on Monday morning to 27

I will deal with these, and the other Saturday ITV races, on Tuesday, when I will also do the double-entries for you, too.

I’m good like that.

Good luck.

 

ANTE-POST BET

Continuous at [33/1] win-only in the Arc on Sunday. Available in seven places.

 

GOING AND WEATHER FOR SATURDAY – updated 11.45am Wednesday

 

ASCOT (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

Going – Heavy, soft in places (the round course is currently waterlogged in places)

Going stickStraight: 6.1; Round: 4.8

Weather:  light showers today; 4mm Saturday

 

NEWMARKET

Going: Soft (bizarrely remains soft after another 15mm on Tuesday)

Going stick: Not even updated since 8am Saturday

Weather: pretty dry now

 

REDCAR

Going: Soft, heavy in places

Going stick: 6.2 at 11.15am Wednesday

Weather: showers Wednesday and Thursday

 

LONGCHAMP

Going: Good to soft  (as per Turftrax)

Official says “Tres Souple”, though penetrometer has gone from 4.4 to 4.0 to 3.9  to current 3.8 in recent days (3.8 as per Wednesday morning), so drying.

Going stick reading:  6.9 (in good to soft band)

Weather: 6mm Sunday from early hours