TONY CALVIN: 6/1 chance has a very solid look to it in the opener at Sandown

Saturday’s fields have held up reasonably at the overnight stage, and just as well, as six of the eight ITV races didn’t even reach maximum-field status at the five-day stage.

But three of the eight contests are still shy of 1,2,3 each way betting, and punters have a couple of dead-eights to contend with.

So not ideal.

You won’t hear anyone tell you it is a deep and classy weekend of racing then – it rarely is following a big Festival – but let’s crack and see what we have got.

I’ll take it course by course, starting with Sandown.

1.50 Sandown – Annoying move for 6/1 Lyndon B but still a bet

The going here is currently good, and they have been watering (see below for details). I imagine it will be very much on the quick side come Saturday afternoon, given the weather forecast.

However, the course update on Friday morning said: “heavy dew, ground has been drying very slowly this week”.

This 7f handicap was one of the two races that attracted a sizeable number on Monday (19 entries) and we are now down to 10.

There was very little between five or six of these betting-wise at the five-day stage, with Raheena and Waiting All Night vying for favouritism at the 5s mark, but the former has not rocked up.

I knew I would struggle for bets when looking at the three ITV cards, so I was relieved when the first race I looked at presented a punting opportunity in the shape of Lyndon B.

Now, you normally have to pay a fair premium to get with a last-time-out unlucky loser, as Lyndon B probably was at Newbury last time, but that does not appear to be the case here.

Granted, it was very annoying to see his general opening odds of [15/2] and [7/1] ebb away in the last 24 hours but the 6s across the board (including with AKBets) remains acceptable.

The handicapper thinks he definitely was unfortunate last time, as he upped him 3lb for a neck defeat, but all four of his handicap successes have come off higher marks than his revised rating off 80.

I will acknowledge that was a 0-80 last time and this is a 0-95, but he won in that class of handicap at Glorious Goodwood two years ago.

He is also a dual course winner, a four-time scorer on fast ground, and his small stable are among the winners, and he just shouts solid bet.

Now, I know he is an 8yo (he takes on seven three and four-year-olds here) on a fair losing run, dating back to that win in August 2022, but this simply looks an ideal set-up for him, with more than enough pace for him to aim at.

I was expecting him to open up at nearer [5/1], so I am still getting involved.

I normally shy away from the bleedin’ obvious, but I will make an exception here. I suggest you take the 6s each way, though he is admittedly not a massive shortener now.

In fact, given the markets are impossible to predict these days, he may well drift on Saturday, in which case I’ll go in again.

One firm are 6s, four places, so let the Oddschecker grid be your friend there and act accordingly if you can. I couldn’t tip in just one spot in good faith though. Two is the bare minimum.

2.25pm Sandown – May not be all gloom for 10/1 Doom against favourite

This is arguably the classiest field of the weekend – though Chester may disagree – and Tamfana leads the way.

She was a top-priced [5/4] chance ante-post, and a general evens, and she actually opened up at [11/8] in a place late on Thursday morning, despite the race having lost six at the overnight stage.

Maybe she would prefer more ease in the ground (connections may well make a late decision on her participation, I guess) but it was good when she should have gone very close in the Guineas, and Timeform also called it that description when she was third in the French Oaks.

She was a touch below that form when fourth over 1m4f in the Grand Prix de Paris last time and she clearly will take all the beating at her best here, returning to a mile. That is maybe a worrying leap, too.

In summary, a best price of [evens] – that [11/8] didn’t last long – is not overly-attractive, as you can make a case for a few for others at that prices, maybe chief among them Doom at 10s each way (available in six places).

3.00pm Sandown – 12/1 Wonder Legend could bounce back

Balmacara was top at [7/2] when the ante-post market closed and the striking thing about this race on Monday was that six of the 15 were out of the handicap.

If top weight Sean had come out, the weights would have been risen by a punchy 13lb but unfortunately for those lurking down the bottom of the handicap he was confirmed on Thursday morning.

That meant several declined the offer of running “wrong” – Dambuster, from 3lb out of the handicap is the sole exception, and maybe that is because the owners wanted a runner at a course they support and sponsor at – and we are now left with just seven runners to go at.

The well-related Dambuster (who cost 750,000 guineas a yearling) actually has a chance, though even [8/1] is maybe a little bit skinny.

Balmacara is now a best-priced [9/4] – though that is only available in a place, and he is a more representative 2s – and that looks no more than fair, especially as there is a suspicion that he may want more dig than is likely.

I can actually see Involvement assuming favouritism here.

Balmacara looks set to get the lead if Charlie Bishop wants it, though I guess Wonder Legend could be the fly in the ointment there.

He has gone on before and presumably he has had a full MOT since disappointing (when a big on-the-show drifter) at Goodwood in early May.

The hood and tongue-tie he wore there are off here and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran much better than his general odds of 12s in ten places (including with AKBets) suggests, with the stable having a decent August, too.

But it’s obviously a guess-up and I am not inclined to have a bet in the race. My gut feel about him though may lead me to having a speculative score in that direction.

I should mention a few firms are offering three places in this seven-runner heat.

3.35pm Sandown – An Outlaw’s Grace massive at 20/1 – if all eight go

Fifteen have become eight for the Group 3 7f Solario Stakes, with Field Of Gold (tops at 2s ante-post) keeping his position at the head of the market.

Notable no-shows on Thursday morning were Aidan O’Brien’s Surpass, Seagull’s Eleven and Asuka, but it remains a very interesting race nevertheless and Field Of Gold is now a [7/4] chance.

He undoubtedly looked very impressive at Newmarket but so did the well-bred, once-raced winners Royal Playwright and Matauri Bay on their debuts. So a win for any of those will clearly be no surprise.

I rarely get involved in 2yo races but I am surprised to see that An Outlaw’s Grace is as big as 20s (and 18s in two places).

He wears first-time cheekpieces here (trainer’s record below – it is 7 from 72 since 2016  if you are very lazy) and I imagine (I don’t know, though) Ryan Moore recommended them to the trainer after he rode the horse to finish sixth in a sales race at York last week.

Moore always give full feedback to trainers, and I imagine they all take notice.

That York form clearly needs massively improving upon but his earlier fourth to Arabie, Shadow Dance and Lowther winner Celandine in the Group 2 Robert Papin at Chantilly last month doesn’t – that makes him the form horse here – and the step back up to 7f may suit, as well.

No way would I be laying 16s and upwards about him, even with a whole host of sexier options ranged against him.

He is surely the bet in the race as it stands but I’d rather take a bit shorter right on the off once I know there are still eight runners (14s+ would be my guide price but you will probably get bigger given the top three in the market are likely to be strong), as I want the places on my side.

I know it even can go pear-shaped once they are in, Lake Forest-stylee, but I advise how I bet myself, and I will be playing late if eight are set to jump. So no bet for now.

1.30pm Beverley – Loyal Touch and Thundering to benefit from pace collapse?

I thought ITV may shunt this off the schedule earlier in the week (the 30k race only got seven entries at the five-day stage) but they had little to replace it with, I guess.

As it is, the ITV bods and the course were probably happy to get five runners. The ground is good to firm, good in places, and they have been watering to maintain lost moisture (whatever that is, I have no idea).

Quietness was the [15/8] favourite earlier in the week and she is now a best-priced [13/8] poke.

He is one of three forward-goers in here along with Walter Hartright and Drawn To Dream, so maybe this could set up nicely for Loyal Touch, but this is the horse’s 15^th start since March 1^st and the trainer doesn’t really seem to have a cogent plan bar running him.

Mind you, he has won twice in that period, so maybe I should stop being so sniffy. He’d be my idea of a minimum-stakes bet in the race if you wanted one, and that win trade at the general 7s is okay.

There have been some nibbles for the other outsider, Thundering, as he opened up at 11s. He is 5lb out of the handicap, but perhaps I wouldn’t get too hung up on that given the make-up and shape of that race – he is one of the two probable closers – but he is pretty much his price at 8s all round now.

I will probably end up having a very small bet on Loyal Touch and Thundering, and throw in a reverse forecast for good measure.

Yes, I’d definitely consider the latter play.

2.05pm Beverley – 11/2 Clarendon House just too risky

Just the seven for the Beverley Bullet.

It was [11/2] the field when there were 11 in the race on Monday but it is now 4s if you shop around. Once again, a few firms are offering three places, so consent Oddschecker once again.

Having thrown a few quid at Clarendon House in the Nunthorpe, and saw him finish stone last in first-time cheekpieces (left off here) at York last week, I have to desert him now as he is just too hit and miss at the start.

I have little doubt he can handle these on a going day (and the [11/2] in a place may be a fair enough price to compensate for the obvious concerns but I am happy to sit this one out.

2.40pm Chester – 20/1 Gorak could be the answer to a bumper cars handicap

The draw has not proved so predictable this season – wide berths have been no barrier to success at any trip – and this was an impossible 7s the field race (with 21 runners) on Monday.

Connections of Almarada Prince must have been gutted as 18 actually confirmed for the race on Thursday morning – an even more galling when the favourite Percy’s Lad was withdrawn at 4.05pm on Thursday due to inflammation – meaning he was balloted out.

Anyway, if you backed that one ante-post make sure you get your money back.

It was good, good to soft on Thursday morning – the course had still not updated on Friday as this went live around 9.30am –  but I imagine it will be on the fast side come Saturday afternoon.

My spread on serious hard luck stories in here in a 17-runner field is 3-4 (and I wouldn’t be a seller) so I can leave this race well alone.

If you wanted a token choice in this 50k handicap, the general 20s about Gorak in a couple of spots looks fair, having been a good third off this mark at Epsom earlier in the week – he has run well within a four-day turnaround  before – but this is a maximum field and it is likely to be Wild West bumper cars out there and he is drawn middle of the pack in 10.

So Sean Levey will have to decide whether to stick or twist early doors on this forward-goer.

3.15pm Chester – 25/1 Enemy could be your friend

It was [7/4] Hamish played [2/1] Caius Chorister earlier in the week , with Absurde the third-favourite at 6s and Samui at 7s.

With the rain earlier in the week now giving way to blue skies, we lost Hamish at the overnight stage – I assume it was ground-related anyway – but curiously Caius Chorister has now drifted to a general [5/2].

The nibbled-at Absurde is now beginning to challenge him for favouritism – indeed he is the jolly in some books – but I want bigger than [5/2] to side with Willie Mullins’ 6yo after his return at the Curragh a fortnight ago. Of course, he can win though. Quite a few of these can.

I don’t have a strong betting opinion – you may have sensed a link here throughout this column, but there is zero point in forcing it when you aren’t parting with your own cash– but the 25s about Enemy (in four places) would obviously be massive if he returned to the level of form he showed at the turn of the year, albeit in sunnier climes.

Recent, much poorer, starts obviously advise caution, but I will probably chuck a tenner or so at him, especially with the Ian Williams yard in good form. That 25s will probably tempt me in.

A very quiet day for me, but this is precisely the reason why I write at length and provide as much information as possible.

Over to you, campers.

 

BET

Lyndon B at [6/1] each way in 1.50pm at Sandown. Available with AKBets and 15 others.

 

WEEKEND GOING/WEATHER DETAILS

 

BEVERLEY

 

GOING: Good to firm, good in places

GOING STICK: 7.3 as at 12.30pm on Thursday

WATERING: “Irrigating overnight to replace moisture lost through the day”

WEATHER:  Dry

 

SANDOWN (two-day meeting, starting on Friday)

GOING – Good (“heavy dew, ground has been drying very slowly this week”)

GOING STICK – 6.8 as at 8am on Friday

WATERING: “Selective watering of Round Course on Wednesday – Bend and last 2f of back straight 5mm” I imagine more will follow.

WEATHER:  Dry

 

CHESTER

GOING: Good, good to soft in places as of 7.54am on Thursday morning – still not updated as of Friday morning

GOING STICK: 7.8 at 7.30am on Thursday

WEATHER:  Dry

 

BALLOTED OUT

 

2.40pm Chester – Almarada Prince

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Eve Johnson Houghton cheekpieces 10-119 (since 2016)

 

Richard Hannon cheekpieces 7-72 (2016)

 

Gordon Elliott cheekpieces 25-198 (2016) – but interestingly 0-21 on Flat

 

 

 

PACE MAPS FOR SATURDAY’S ITV RACES

1.30pm Beverley: Drawn To Dream, Quietness, Walter Hartright

2.05pm Beverley: Democracy Dilemma, Emaraaty Ana (prominent), Commanche Falls?

1.50pm Sandown: Glenfinnan (prom). Waiting All Night (prom), Sir Les Patterson, Mr Baloo, Havana Blue (prom)

2.25pm Sandown: Doom (prom), Spiritual, Doha (prom)

3pm Sandown: Wonder Legend?, Balmacara

3.35pm Sandown (not much evidence): Tiger Mask

2.40pm Chester:  Warrior Brave, Two Tempting (prom), Divine Libra (prom), Gorak, Yanifer, Revich?, Yantarni, Physique, Reidh (prom), Almarada Prince (prom)

3.15pm Chester:  Fairbanks (prom), Rajinsky?, Caius Chorister?, Shanroe

 

TRAINERFORM (not including Friday’s results)

Excellent: Richard Hughes. Jennie Candlish

Good: Michael Bell, Richard Spencer, Ian Williams, Andrew Balding, William Haggas, Willie Mullins, David Menuisier, Michael Herrington, John and Thady Gosden, James Ferguson

Fair: Jamie Osborne (10-1 winner on Thursday), Marcus Tregoning (no winners, though), Charlie Johnston (needs more winners though, just 6pc strike rate), Kevin Ryan, Ed Dunlop, Archie Watson, Jack Channon, Eve Johnson Houghton, George Boughey (double on Thursday), Ross O’Sullivan (going off boil a bit despite recent winner), Daniel and Claire Kubler, Charlie Fellowes (double on Thursday), John and Sean Quinn, Micky Fenton, Tim Easterby, Richard Fahey (22-1 winner on Thursday), Craig Lidster, Hugo Palmer (winner on Thursday), Sir Michael Stoute, Gordon Elliott, Karl Burke (borderline good), Julie Camacho, Richard Hannon, Harry Eustace (needs a winner), Simon and Ed Crisford (double on Thursday), John and Rhys Flint, Roger Varian and Ralph Beckett (both borderline good)

Moderate:  Robert Cowell, Michael Dods (more fair, perhaps and 10-11 winner on Thursday), Jonathan Portman, Harriet Bethell (9-2 winner on Thursday though), Gemma Tutty, Charles Hills (getting a bit better), Jane Chapple-Hyam (needs winners, empty-handed in August), James Tate, Simon Pearce

Don’t know:  Karl Thornton, Martyn Meade

P AND L (July 22-Aug 31): -23.8