By Tony Calvin - 5 October 2024
I did have a chuckle when someone sent me a text on Thursday, directing me towards a Racing Post story which claimed Sunday’s Arc was “star-studded”.
Now, admittedly, I am to positivity what Philp Schofield is to career-rescuing, desert island content – he better get used to non-entity status after that car crash, with the only saving grace it was on Channel 5 and not many would have watched it – but whoever penned that now presumably has a six-foot hooter.
That reminded of the genius line someone once told – I can’t remember who – about Ahmed Ajtebi (other big nosed-jockeys are plentiful, as they are available).
“He could smell a Sunday Roast on a Wednesday.”
There is simply no stand-out in the race – it is [5/1] the field if you shop around, with even the outsiders at 66s having place squeaks – and you are mugging yourself off (and your readers) if claiming there is even one top-notcher going into the race.
There may be one coming out the other end, with possibly Look De Vega or Shin Emperor the likeliest candidates given their lightly-raced profiles, but there is no point bullshitting for the sake of it.
John Ingles of Timeform put the race in context when he wrote the following on the Sporting Life site:
“Al Riffa tops the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings on 134….a modest figure by historical standards for a top-rated horse going into the race.
“That’s a good deal lower than the Timeform top-rated in any of the last ten editions – 8lb lower than the average top-rated during that period, in fact.”
That put this race into context. It is very winnable, and star-studded, it ain’t.
Anyway, I was rather deflated when Continuous was drawn 14 of 16 on Thursday.
So over to you Christophe Soumillon.
I stuck the horse up win-only at 33s earlier in the week, and I just hope he gets the breaks he didn’t last year in what was a much better renewal of the race.
Basically, what I said about him earlier in the week stands true.
He didn’t get an ideal passage last season, and the first three home that day were probably all better than this mob, the fifth home had run Equinox to a head on his previous start, and the sixth, Group 1 winner Bay Bridge, was 2 ½ lengths away.
The case for him largely rests on that run (and to a lesser extent on his Leger win), as he has failed to really catch fire yet this season. But I get the impression they have been playing catch-up with him.
He needed it badly on his return at Royal Ascot (connections were not too downbeat by that run, despite his price), he showed surprising pace for a Leger winner in beating a subsequent Group 3 winner over 1m2f on good ground at the Curragh, and there was one main excuse for his below-par third in the Foy last time.
Now, that was undoubtedly disappointing, but he made the running there and that was the only time he has done so since winning on his debut.
Ideally, he wants a waiting ride off a strong pace, and given luck in running, which hopefully he gets on Sunday, he can maybe turn back the form dial to 2023.
That draw in 14 in a big field is undoubtedly off-putting though, so I won’t be pressing up at the current 25s.
There is not a great deal of pace in here, and that could add to the traffic problems late on.
The others two I liked earlier in the week were Al Riffa at 12s and Zarakem at 66s, so those were the horses I revisited first.
Nothing really has changed as regards my thoughts on these two either.
Now, I backed both earlier in the week, but the booking of the 55-year-old Yutaka Take increasingly bothers me for Al Riffa – the horse showed at Sandown that he needs some kidding along in his newly-inserted cheekpieces – and I have come to the conclusion that Zarakem is more likely a gallant sixth than a jackpot winner.
But I have happily got involved on Zarakem at 66s and 50s, and he is my biggest winner as it stands.
I’d happily be wrong on either count, but I decided to start from scratch in order to find my fourth bet (I have no problem admitting to multiple punts in big fields) and second tip.
And Aventure, coming out of trap four, finally raised her head at [22/1]. That is available in three places, including with AKBets. The general 20s is acceptable, and she will end up being my best result (of four) in the race.
A lot of people baulk at backing multiple horses in a race, but these are the same people that are happy to unload at evens.
And bets at 66s, 33s, 22s and 12s combined do not equate to a short price, or anything like evens.
I’ll be honest with you, I initially dismissed Aventure earlier in the week without studying the videos, as I didn’t think her narrow Deauville win in August was worth tuppence in Arc-winning terms or that her Vermeille second was good enough to win this.
It seems I was a touch hasty.
That Deauville last-to-first win was visually, highly impressive, and it did come after a two-month break, too.
This is a filly with a powerful turn of foot, and she just needs her jockey to deliver it at the right moment, which Maxime Guyon didn’t do in the French Oaks, or in the Vermeille last time.
The Timeform site suggests otherwise (it must be wrong) but she must have gone very short in running in those races, bursting to hit the lead in both – I think she just about went ahead of Bluestocking, albeit very briefly – only to be worried out of it close home.
This incredibly smooth traveller needs to be produced as late as possible, as Stephane Pasquier showed in the aforementioned Deauville race, and he is back on board here.
If that electrifying turn of foot can be fully utilised here, she could be the ace in this stacked deck. She is ground-versatile but if it turns up good on the day, so much the better given her change of gear.
Anyway, at 22s (generally available 20s), I am paying to find out about a 3yo filly getting 4lb and more from all bar French Oaks runner-up Survie. The latter is the 66s outsider, which just underlines that they all have a chance in an incredibly open race.
And, by the way, just where is the pace coming from in here?
I don’t have any strong opinion in either of the 2yo races on ITV, especially with Misunderstood and Rashabar shortening in the market on Friday.
Brian Meehan’s Coventry winner shaped like the best horse in the Morny last time, given his track position, but it is not a bullish betting opinion, especially as I hardly have a reliable handle. The 5s in five places has become 4s.
There was some early 12s and 11s knocking about for the unbeaten Misunderstood on Friday (now top at 13/2) and you’d suspect he’d be even shorter if trained by one of the big names in France.
Mind you, Mario Baratti may well be a grand fromage, for all I know….
It looks like Al Shaqab Racing have bought into him after his all-the-way, wide-margin win in a five-runner Group 3 here last time – his four rivals had all won the time before – so that is a positive.
The fact that his price ebbed away through Friday was not, and he is actually as low as [9/2].
Most bookmakers have it as around even money that either Bradsell or Believing win the Abbaye – you can get [7/2] and [4/1] respectively if cherry-picking though – and that looks fair enough in this field.
Neither the UK, Ireland or France are blessed with top-notch sprinters and those two look the best around. And both have got decent draws.
Logic dictates this should be a draw race, with those housed low with a big advantage, but Highfield Princess won from stall 14 last year and we have had winners from 12 (twice) and 13 in recent years, too.
There isn’t much pace in here, so it is easy to see Washington Heights and Desperate Hero getting on the rail from four and six respectively. Or at least trying to.
And, very surprisingly, they were available at 33s and 40s on Friday afternoon. I will come back to those shortly.
It does make me laugh when looking at the price tags of horses, and Rogue Lightning was actually bought for a million notes after finishing a 1 ¼ length fifth in this race last year.
I wonder what he would go for now.
Joking aside, that run last year was a great effort from the widest stall, and he must be rated an unlucky loser given the passage he experienced, after switching right across to the rail in the early stages of the race.
He is clearly not in the same form leading up to this (he was on a four-timer in this last year) but his trainer is in rare nick and maybe the first-time blinkers can perk him up (though Clover’s record is not too clever – see below), even if he hasn’t got lucky again after being handed stall 14.
For all the doubts, he is a very fair 18s chance (16s available in six places).
However, I think Desperate Hero is the most overpriced one in here.
Rated just 104, he has lots to find on the book, but he again caught my eye (it helped that I backed him at big three-figures, so I was glued to his run) when a 3 ½ length sixth to Bradsell in the Flying Five, and I don’t think he was ideally positioned in the middle there.
If he can win the battle for the lead, I think he will take his punters deep into the race. The 40s was taken on Friday, but the 33s in five places is not something I’d be willing to lay. Or 25s, either.
He has often shaped as he was much better than his current mark, and he has a very good set-up here.
Both of the selections are win-only but I obviously wouldn’t put you off either each way, if you can access the enhanced place terms.
I am aware plenty cannot, and have to play win-only.
Good luck.
BETS
Desperate Hero at [33/1] win-only in 1.30pm. Available in three places (the 28s elsewhere and the 25s in five places, including with AKBets, is acceptable).
Aventure win-only at [22/1] in 3.20pm. Available in three places, incuding with AKbets (20s is fine).
ANTE-POST BET
Continuous at [33/1] win-only in Arc
GOING AND WEATHER FOR LONGCHAMP
LONGCHAMP
Going: Firmly in good to soft bracket, and heading to good. It has dried again on Saturday morning. Official says soft but their reading has dried from 4.4 earlier in week to 3.6 on Saturday.
Turftrax going stick reading: 7.5 on Saturday morning
Weather: Sunny Saturday. Rain due in early hours of Sunday (amounts vary but currently not a great dea – maybe 4mm, maybe more, maybe lessl)
FIVE HORSES SUPPLEMENTED
Arc – Bluestocking for 120k
Boussac – Simmering (for £24.194)
Lagardère – Heybeti (for £24,194)
Foret – Big Rock & Breege (for £21,169)
FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR
Aidan O’Brien blinkers: 54-326 since 2009 – Henri Matisse, 1.30pm
Tom Clover blinkers: 2 from 31 since 2017; – Rogue Lightning, 2.05pm
PACE MAPS (not gospel these…)
12.55pm Longchamp: Bedtime Story?, Exactly?
1.30pm Longchamp: Misunderstood
2.05pm Longchamp: Washington Heights (drawn 4), Desperate Hero (6), La Bellota (11)
3.20pm Longchamp: Continuous? (very doubtful from 14), Look De Vega (8)?
TRAINERFORM (does not include Saturday’s results; French trainers obviously a bit guessy…)
Excellent: Tom Clover, Aidan O’Brien, Reynier (few runners), Ferland (few runners)
Good: Mario Baratti. Joseph O’Brien, Ralph Beckett, Clive Cox, Richard Hughes, George Boughey, John Ryan (very few runners), Fabre, Lerner, Rouget
Fair: F-H Graffard, Ollie Sangster, Karkosa, Caullery. Kevin Ryan, Ken Condon, Jack Channon, Archie Watson, Ed Walker, Fouassier, David Menuisier, Clement (no winners, though)
Moderate: Christopher Head, Y Barberat, John and Thady Gosden, Brian Meehan
Don’t know/never heard of them/not enough evidence: Carayon, Rivases, Brandt, Bietolini, Scandella-Lacaille, Steinberg (though won a Group 3 win on Thursday), Yahagi
Another winner last week, this time @ 6/1 with the 1-0 Millwall home win over…
Kelso suffering with 11.10am start With 11 ITV races on Saturday, I’ll ditch the pontificating…