By Tony Calvin - 17 January 2025
It is all systems go at Ascot and Haydock, and the ITV favourites are getting hammered.
At Ascot, Jonbon is now best at [8/13] and Kargese is into [1/2], and Royal Infantry is now only [4/9] at Haydock, and [2/5] with a fair few outfits.
Kargese and Royal Infantry are heading even lower.
I wonder how many people will still put those three in a treble.
Probably plenty.
One odds-on favourite is easy to back and that is the much-touted Lulamba in the opener at Ascot, and he can now be backed at [4/5] in a place, as money has come for the 111-rated Flat recruit Mondo Man against him.
The Triumph Hurdle favourite Lulamba may not even go off favourite at this rate….
Mind you, I’d say these early skirmishes only represent about 10pc of the monies that will be staked today, with the big beef coming around 10 minutes before the off of each race.
Terresita has been very well backed (or shortened to very little money, take your pick) into as low as [13/2] – she is probably the biggest odds-against mover from the 48/24-hour markets, though I imagine she will drift back out now – so hopefully she can hit the frame at the very least.
Moveitlike Minnie has shortened a bit, but there are two non-runners in that race. Incidentally, with the ground now verging towards good at Ascot look out for non-runners – we have already had five (three ground-related) – changing each way terms.
With the non-runner factored in (and ignoring the stand-out 12s), I’d say Bushypark is a little weak at a now-best priced 9s.
Cloonainra and Ooh Betty have been nibbled against the jollies in their respective races, especially in the without markets, but, like I said, it is very early days on the betting front.
Hopefully the below gives you half a steer, race-by-race, if you are watching the ITV coverage.
It’s my guide anyway, and how I have attacked the cards with my own money, and I like to put the work in at the very least over a three-day period for each column (free feel to ignore…).
Good luck, whatever and however you are punting.
Haaland and Red Flyer have been the movers of note for that Lingfield race on ITV’s The Opening Show – don’t go on the Chevy if they get beaten, as it’s a long ole punting day from 10.15am…..
First things first, frost covers are being deployed at both Ascot and Haydock, so cross those fingers (things look fine to judge from overnight temperatures on Friday).
There is now an inspection at 8.30am on Saturday morning at Haydock (update 8am Saturday – “Raceable and frost free. We will monitor the sunrise temperature drop expected, before lifting frost covers in the vulnerable areas” – has just officially passed the inspection)
We may as well start with The Match Of The Day, then revert to the usual chronological order, so are we getting giddy for Jonbon v Energumene in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot?
Yes, I thought so.
There was decent free money down to sixth in this, but Libberty Hunter and Unexpected Party have declined the invitation to accept it, and understandably so perhaps, so we are down to four.
And on all known evidence with the various Jonbon formlines involving Edwardstone and Boothill, this really is a match, barring accidents, though I would like to see Alan King’s chaser give it a blast from the front, as he did in the Game Spirit last season.
He who dares, Alan, he who dares.
It is the only way the 14s poke is going to win, anyway unless he has his eye on the 18k for third place.
Nothing much has changed since I looked at this race on Tuesday, with Jonbon still available at [8/11] and Energumene clipped into [9/4] from [5/2].
I may as well re-state my comments here.
Energumene is probably overpriced on form grounds in a match between two top-class two-milers who have never been out of the first three.
At his best, he was rated as high as 176, and he has put in a number of efforts down the years to justify that assessment.
You could actually argue his best performance was in defeat in this race in 2022, when beaten a length by Shishkin.
He is now on a mark of 169 here (just 1lb shy of Jonbon) and you can’t really quibble with his comeback win at Cork, his first run since Punchestown in April 2023.
Sure, it was some way off his best, as he was getting 10lb off Banbridge and was not sure to beat that rival when he unseated at the last, but of course Joseph O’Brien’s chaser didn’t do that formline any harm in the King George, even if the subsequent runs of those in behind have been pretty dismal.
Harshly maybe, I’d be of the opinion he has something to prove still – as an 11yo who was returning after a leg injury at Cork – and what you see is what you get with Jonbon, which is why he is the strong favourite.
One from one at this track, albeit over hurdles in 2021, he is the model of consistency (though his form in various wins has been a touch below par, as in the Shloer on his return) and he was at or near his best when winning the Tingle Creek last time.
There is one amusing element to this, though.
Apparently, one of the reasons Jonbon’s stablemate Lulamba has been supported for the Triumph Hurdle is some claim he kicked the star 2m chaser out of the way in a recent gallop.
If true, does that mean Lulamba is a weapon or is Jonbon under a cloud?
With the juvenile Lulamba down to run in the Ascot opener at 12.30pm (against a 111-rated Flat recruit in Mondo Man, so that could be some match-up, too), we will at least have a, perhaps mythical, line into the shits and giggles goss.
With Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth looking set to take in the Champion Hurdle (well, definitely the latter anyway), Kargese is beginning to close in on favouritism for the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham.
So her Festival supporters (and it really wouldn’t have taken much to shorten her for that race, given how gingerly the layers would have traded it – I think it’s a myth that Cheltenham markets are aggressively traded) will be hugely disappointed if she can’t win this Grade 2 hurdle.
She is best-priced [8/13] to do so, and only in one place – the early [4/6] was taken – and that is not a price I would offer to lay.
She actually doesn’t have that much in hand on official ratings under a 3lb penalty – Take No Chances and All The Glory are bang on her coat-tails – but I think a mark of 141 probably underestimates this dual Grade 1 winner considering how she performed in defeat against Sir Gino and Majborough.
She is having her first run since May and can be a touch too keen for her own good, but you’d be fancying her to put these away.
Of the others, one who I have a lot of time for is the 14s chance Ooh Betty (after having had a decent lump on her when she blew out at Newbury, I totally missed the fact she was running at Kempton last time and she duly won – maybe I should have a Tracker, after all) and maybe she can chase the favourite home.
The first firm up made her [9/2] without Kargese – now 5s – and that’s a market I will look at once more outfits have priced it up. I haven’t played myself yet.
Take No Chances is the obvious favourite on this line but I thought the opening [11/10] was short enough about her.
The track was frozen at Haydock at the start of the week and the frost covers are being deployed in vulnerable areas on Friday, so I am anticipating it is going to be exceptionally hard work for the horses, for all the going has dried up a touch on the Friday morning update.
Let’s hope the frost doesn’t offer up any nasty surprises along the lines of Ludlow on Thursday. That was pretty shambolic.
It is officially heavy, soft in places, with a going stick reading of 4.0.
I am not sure I’d be in a rush to back Royal Infantry at [4/6] in this, and we are largely dealing with [8/13] and [4/7] here – and that is only with one bookmaking outfit – and you can put up two or three of these against him, chief among them Cloonainra at 16s perhaps.
At the price, anyway. I’ve had a small nibble, and without too.
John McConnell continues to have an awful time in trying to find winners (hasn’t had a jumps winner since November, an obvious negative) but Cloonainra ran a cracker when second to the progressive Shraheen in a big-field handicap at Leopardstown on Boxing Day and that puts up firmly in the ballpark at these weights.
She gets 11lb from the penalised favourite, and the 7lb sex allowance from the rest, and the 16s simply looks too big.
The ground is a worry, as Timeform called it good at Leopardstown last time, but for what it is worth her point win came on soft/heavy and she looks a little too big at 16s to my eye.
She is 6s without the favourite with the one firm to have priced that market up. I want to wait to see if there are more generous souls out there to flag up (doesn’t look like being bettered, so I managed to get a little bit of that without price).
The betting usually starts to emerge at 11.30am, after the final fields are known, at the 48-hour stage – and it is often quite comical.
Well, certainly varied, anyway.
Take this race, for instance.
One firm immediately made Flegmatik their [7/2] favourite, while another firm had him in at 12s.
That’s some difference of opinion, Geoffrey (one for the fifty-somethings -google it along with Jimmy Tarbuck….).
As ever with these things, middle ground is soon established – you clip and I’ll lengthen etc – and Flegmatik now trades at a best-priced [13/2] and 6s, though still as short as 4s.
You can certainly make a cogent case for him, as a horse who has dropped 10lb in the weights after four runs this season, the most encouraging of which was a fifth over 3m here last time, a race in which he ran better than the bare form suggests after weakening in the straight.
His best efforts have come here , and notably at Kempton, and this shorter 2m5f trip is certainly no negative for him, nor is the drying ground.
If the trigger is going be pulled here, which you have to assume it will be given the first prize is 52 bags, then he is a major player and handicapped to win.
If you can access the bigger prices (which is increasingly important in wilder markets these days), then I couldn’t put you off. I managed to get some 7s on Thursday.
First-time blinkers could be the making of the twicer Bad, as he has looked as though he could do with some straightening out.
Mind you, Ben Pauling is a very modest 2-41 with this angle.
Three runs in cheekpieces last season didn’t do the trick but the first time they were applied he was only beaten a head in a 16-runner handicap hurdle here last February.
As he is owned by big Ascot sponsor David Howden he is invariably primed for his runs at this course – he traded at 1.2 when beaten by Bhaloo here in November – so, even though he is 5lb out of the handicap, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he went close.
If not quite close enough.
He is 7s in a place and a general [13/2].
I eventually landed on Terresita each way at 20s here (available in two places). If you don’t have accounts with those firms, the 16s with three others is acceptable.
I am a bit concerned that she hasn’t been out since finishing third to Gemirande here in November, but maybe they have simply freshened her up for a crack at this 100k pot.
Although beaten 10 ½ lengths by the subsequent winner there (rated 16lb higher now), she shaped very well, trading at 2s in the run before her effort wide around the bend found her out in the closing stages.
The runner-up, Nocte Volatus, has his first run since in the 1.25pm at Market Rasen on Friday (traded at 1.64 in the run before finishing a good second there).
Down 1lb to a mark of 134, I think she is fairly handicapped on her reappearance Carlisle win and she has place chances, and hopefully a winning one. And, while quiet like many, I am very happy with the form of the Lucy Wadham yard.
I was very worried the 20s, and the 16s wouldn’t last, but those prices are still there as this goes live.
Dead-eight alert.
Haydock, bottomless ground, a test of stamina, and Royale Pagaille is running.
We just back him at [9/4], don’t we?
A mark of 166 could have something say about that I guess, but he goes for a third win in this race and, at the age of 11, he probably wasn’t far off his best when winning the Betfair Chase last time.
As the betting suggests, the [5/2] poke Mr Vango, and others, will keep him very honest, and the possible wild card is Imagine, who I thought could be worth a small dart at double-figure odds, but alas no.
Harry Derham blamed himself for running the ex-Irish horse on good ground in the Paddy Power (he went off just 6s there) and he will certainly get a culture shock here, going from 2m4f on decent ground at Cheltenham to 3m1f+ in the slop at Haydock.
He cost an eyewatering 320,000gns at the infamous Caldwell dispersal sale last time (other money-burning opportunities are available) and the new owners will be looking for a better show here from the [10/1] chance.
It is possible, but there are too many question marks surrounding him, and anyway the 10s about him has gone and he is just a general 7s chance now, if 8s and [15/2] in a couple of spots.
I would have wanted bigger given the doubts, and I have no betting opinion in the race.
A very tricky 2m3f handicap hurdle, and I can’t say I initially had a strong betting opinion.
But the more I looked the more I warmed to one.
Moveit Like Minnie is probably my idea of the pick of the prices each way at 33s (available in four places) but clearly he comes with risks attached after running out twice this season (he may have won one of those if not being a naughty boy).
But those came over fences and it is fair to say he didn’t really take to chasing, despite winning at Southwell in September.
He shaped okay on his return to hurdles here last time over 1m7f+, and I can definitely see this longer trip suiting him.
Connections seem to have pegged him as a two-miler, despite having won over 2m4f+ earlier in his career, and I reckon it is worth another stab, especially on the drying ground.
The cheekpieces are back on after he wore a visor last time, so I don’t know what is going on there, but I can certainly see him outrunning those odds of [33/1].
His mark of 119 looks workable too, as he finished a good 2 ¾ length fourth to Luccia in that very valuable 2m handicap here in 2023 off 124, and that race was every bit as strong as this (in fact the 5s second favourite in here, Altobelli, was just 1 ¾ lengths ahead of him in third and is now 5lb worse off).
Yes, I’d say 33s each way, four places, is a very fair wager, for all the temperament and stamina doubts. Good, in fact.
Alotobelli wears first-time cheekpieces and Fry is pretty good here with this headgear angle (5-29).
We had another wild difference of opinion here, with Bushypark being put in at 12s by one firm and as low as [4/1] by another.
Another Geoffrey moment, but I’d be more in the latter camp, for all he is the old man of the party at 11.
He was actually as big as [40/1] in the ante-post book on Tuesday, and no doubt his Haydock form on deep ground is a major factor in his shortening odds.
Perhaps the sole factor.
He was three from three over hurdles at this track before coming here late last month, and all looked to be going swimmingly again, as he was in front and beginning to get them all at it, before diving at one and coming down.
We know track and trip and ground are ideal then, and a mark of 114 looks hugely exploitable, too. His three handicap hurdle wins here came off 98, 120 and 115, and carrying bottom weight in these conditions will be no bad thing.
Take the 12s if you can obviously, but he is also 9s and 8s, and that looks acceptable in a wide-open race.
The current [17/2] with AKBets, win-only, with the dangerous Lossiemouth coming out at 5.55pm on Friday, is very acceptable.
Ideally, I’d have wanted less pace pressure for him, but you have to assume the riders will be sensible in the ground, and 3lb claimer Joe Williamson obviously knows the horse well.
The [33/1] chance Bold Endeavour is becoming very well handicapped but the ground looks too deep for him, even it is now officially soft on the hurdles course.
Let’s hope frost doesn’t claim either of the big meetings.
There is also a 10.15am live race from Lingfield on The Opening Show – they obviously listen to The Racing Room – but you are on your own there, though I did have a quick look and thought Red Flyer and Moel Arthur were not bad prices at 10s (latter very weak and won at 20s).
Terresita 20/1 each way in 2.15pm Ascot. Available in two places (16s okay).
Moveit Like Minnie each way at 33/1, four places (available in four places; 28s and 25s is okay too)
Bushypark win-only in 3.05pm at Haydock. Take the 12s if you can, but 9s and 8s elsewhere is fine (if you can get the 8s each way, four places, or the 7s, five places, then that is arguably the better option, especially with Lossiemouth a NR at 5.55pm and those prices holding).
I’ve had other bets (see copy), but just bet where you can access the odds stated (appreciate it ain’t easy).
Going – Good, good to soft in places
Going stick reading – Chase:; 6.8; Hurdle: 6.9 (8.45am Saturday)
Weather: – Dry
SATURDAY Course update: “Min temp overnight to 6.30am was +2c. Cloudy at 6.30am. Due to remain chilly today with possible patchy fog. Frost covers were deployed on take offs and landings and the shadowed area of the straight. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing”
Rails: The rail on the Hurdle Course is positioned 10 yds out from its innermost position around both Paddock and Home bends. The rail on the Chase Course is positioned 8yds out around Paddock bend, 2 yds out around Swinley Bottom and 9yds out around Home bend. All steeple chase fences have false wings in place and are at their narrowest.
”
Going – Chase: Soft, heavy in places; Hurdle: soft (Frost covers were deployed on vulnerable areas on Friday)
Going stick reading – 4.0 (8.05am Thursday)
Weather: – Dry
SATURDAY Course update: “Raceable and frost free. We will monitor the sunrise temperature drop expected, before lifting frost covers in the vulnerable areas.”
2.15pm Ascot: Tedley (1lb), Bad (5lb)
2.30pm Haydock: Mr Vango (1lb), Bill Baxter (9lb)
2.50pm Ascot: Soigneux Bell (6lb)
Ben Pauling blinkers 2-41 (since 2015) – Bad, 2.15pm Ascot
Harry Fry cheekpieces 5-29 (2013) – Altobelli, 2.50pm Ascot
1.40pm Ascot: Pawapuri?, Brendas Asking?, Ooh Betty?
1.55pm Haydock: Royal Infantry, Famous Liss, Peacenik, Walking On A Dream
2.15pm Ascot: Kansas City Star, Bad
2.30pm Haydock: Trelawne, Imagine?, Mr Vango
2.50pm Ascot: Goshen, Bo Zenith, Stoner’s Choice, Josh The Boss, Wilful
3.05pm Haydock: Bold Endeavour (prom), Uncle Bert, Young Jack, Good Look Charm (prom), Tiny Tetley, Bushypark
3.32pm Ascot (who knows): Energumene?, Edwardstone?, Jonbon?
Excellent: Hobbs and White (absolutely flying at the moment, with five of his last 10 runners winning, with three placed)
Good: Henry Daly, Ben Pauling, Nicky Henderson, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Tom Symonds, Willie Mullins, Lucinda Russell (in very good form, in fact), Olly Murphy (very good), Alan King (though no recent winners), Warren Greatrex
Fair: Sandy Thomson (winner on Thursday), Nigel Twiston-Davies (winner on Wednesday), Fergal O’Brien, Dan Skelton (treble on Thursday, and in among the winners on Friday too), Bailey and Nicholls, Paul Nicholls, Lucy Wadham (though very few recent runners), Harry Derham, Joe Tizzard, Gary and Josh Moore (getting better), Anthony Honeyball, Sam Thomas, Laura Morgan (winner on Friday), Polly Gundry, Rebecca Menzies (Flat winner on Friday), Philip Kirby (no winners, though), Harry Fry (welcome winner on Friday)
Moderate: Venetia Williams (11-10 winner on Wednesday though, so not all bad), John McConnell
Don’t know: Ben Clarke, Tom Ellis, Stuart Coltherd, Nicky Martin, Katy Price (two runners, one winner, so good I guess), Donald McCain (only one recent runner), Sara Bradstock, Tom Lacey, Chris Grant
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