By Tony Calvin - 6 December 2024
Aintree and Chepstow are off, as is Wolverhampton (the latter after an 11am inspection).
Wetherby and Sandown have passed inspections, though the latter has another at 9.30am due to increasing winds.
Sandown have had 1mm of rain overnight.
Sandown reports:
“7.30 Inspection PASSED. In light of forecast further Inspection at 9.30am, with conditions monitored in the interim.
“Wind gusts at 6am currently 25-30mph, expected to increase by 9am to potentially 45-50mph and stay at that level for most of the day. Potential for 5mm rain through the morning.”
Unexpected Party, the 100s poke, is out of the Tingle Creek. Now only seven runners.
He was withdrawn at 7.09am, despite only 1mm overnight and drying winds, you’d imagine, though more rain is forecast.
It is now only two places for each-way betting. Boothill has also come out for Harry Fry now, who has also withdrawn Altobelli and Dubrovnik Harry (due to travel).
There is now no each way betting in the 1.50pm, with Rubaud taken out last night.
That Non-Runner department never sleeps…..
There will doubtless be plenty more withdrawals throughout the day, as travel issues take precedence for many.
Indeed, I imagine plenty of racegoers will be deterred too, especially as the roads and trains are probably not the place to be today.
I don’t envy Sandown’s call (s) this morning.
They have just passed the 9.30am inspection , but I imagine they will continue to monitor wind speeds. I don’t live far away (15-20 minutes or so in car) and it is currently filthy weather, wind and rain, the worst it has been all morning.
I imagine the going will ease when the next ground update is made.
Oh, and it seems that Harry Cobden won’t be riding today. He is still sore after a fall at Plumpton on Monday, apparently, as per the Racing Post podcast this morning.
The going remains the same after rain on Saturday morning (perhaps, surprisingly so – but a subsequent update said they have only had 3mm). See below.
However, the going stick readings have changed.
The hurdles track is now 4.4 from 4.6, and the chase course 4.9 from 5.0
********************************************
With Met Office warnings in place for both Sandown and Aintree in the next 48 hours – it is actually amber on the wind front in Liverpool for Saturday, and yellow in Esher, with more rain to come at both locations (see below) – be on the lookout for non-runners and changing each way terms
That is most obviously the case in the Tingle Creek, a race for which surprisingly all eight stood their ground at the overnight stage.
However, I’d have my doubts as to whether the outsider Unexpected Party would run, in particular.
And let’s hope all the Irish horses travelled on Thursday, as they always tend to.
Rated only 145 and arguably suited by better ground than is likely, this would seem like a wasted run for Unexpected Party, especially with prize money going down to just sixth.
But let’s hope he does rock up, if only for betting purposes.
Aintree promises to be very deep, attritional ground, and that is often far from ideal punting fare.
It probably won’t be as bad as at this meeting last year – it was barely raceable then – but it will be “specialist” ground, as they say.
I wouldn’t be the biggest fan betting in bad ground, and any stakes will be minimal as a result, but here goes.
Sandown have announced a 7.30am inspection on Saturday morning, and I imagine Aintree will follow suit (which they did, with a 7am Saturday inspection). Wetherby and Chepstow are also in doubt.
It will be pretty slow-motion stuff on the hurdles course at Sandown, too.
Particularly on day two of the meeting (there have already been seven going-related withdrawals on Friday’s card).
This 2m7f+ Pertemps qualifier was one of two races added to the ITV schedule on Tuesday and the first thing that struck me about this race was that Up For Parol could have an easy lead, and he looks to be starting his 2024-25 campaign of a winnable mark.
When I say easy lead, that is not true.
Nothing will be easy on the front end, as they will have no cover in gusts of up to 50 miles an hour, and perhaps beyond. You’d probably be better off smuggled on the rail, in mid-pack.
Sure, West To The Bridge has made it before (in fact his best efforts have come when forcing it, and indeed he battled for the lead at Bangor last time) but they seem to mix it and match it with him these days.
The jury is out as to whether Up For Patrol has the stamina to take this prize in the ground (he stuck on well enough on his first attempt at this trip on good ground at Chepstow in April), so I have deserted him on that score. And he did blow out on his only start here.
His stablemate Super Survivor is arguably of more interest, as a horse with no questions to answer on the trip and ground front, who goes well when fresh, and off a hurdles mark of just 123 (5lb lower than his chase mark).
But is this a spin before he reverts to fences?
I thought this was a very tricky handicap, though I did think the 11yo West To The Bridge was a solid each way proposition.
I am trying to wean myself off siding with exposed oldies but he ran well last time (actually got raised 2lb for it), he is a dual course winner and he could get a nice sit behind Up For Parol if they decide to ride him handy again.
But I’ll sit tight on this race for now, especially as the opening, general price of [9/2], three places, for him was a touch underwhelming, and he is possibly best at 2m4f, rather than this trip.
This is another race drafted in to bolster the ITV schedule and let’s hope it is not as hard a watch as this meeting was last year.
However, it probably will be, given the weather forecast (see below). And it may well be called off if the amber wind warning materializes on Saturday.
They are expecting 60-65mph gusts as well as plenty more rain.
Richmond Lake is on the same mark as when winning this race by 14 lengths last season (beating two finishers) and he’d be my idea of the favourite here after running so well on his return in the Sefton.
I actually thought he was travelling like the winner there much of the race – so I am surprised he never went below 6.6 in running – only for his bid to falter after the last in that 2m5f contest.
He is perhaps more suited to these conditions than the early jolly Springwell Bay. The general [7/2] is fair.
I was surprised to see a Dan Skelton stable-switcher, Salamanca Bay, open up at 14s in places, even his record for Luciinda Russell suggests he may find the ground a bit too testing.
Furthermore, Skelton reported him as “headstrong” and looking like “a two-miler” at this stage in a recent interview, so if that’s the case he may not be getting home on this ground.
Indeed, it begs the question why he has been entered. He probably has a 2m handicap in mind for him, not this.
Thankfully, we had only one defection at the overnight stage, and this looks an absolute belter.
You’ll take five runners in these novices’ chases all day long (I suspect it will end up being four), even if we have Gordon Elliott to thank for two of them.
L’Eau du Sud opened up at [11/10] on Thursday morning, which was understandably short given the way he strolled home at Cheltenham last time.
In fact, it was quickly taken.
This is a much different test, track and ground-wise, but he is obviously the one to beat. The going shouldn’t be a problem for him.
The two other home horses, Rubaud and Soul Icon, look very opposable on ground and class terms respectively – much more rain and will they even run Rubaud here on his chasing debut, as it is a big ask for him as it is (I very much doubt it) – so we are left with the Elliott pair.
Down Memory Lane is the shorter of the two, but Touch Me Not would appeal more at the prices after a win in a good time at Punchestown last time.
But it’s not a betting race for me, not least because this promises to be a very cute tactical battle, with all five of these liking to force it.
The jockeys may be drawing lots in the weighing room….
A reminder on the changing each-way terms if Rubaud gets taken out. Early indications are that he will as he “doesn’t want soft ground.”
The National course is even deeper than the other tracks, so this 3m1f188yd is going to take some getting.
Horses for courses though, and we have last year’s runaway winner Chambard in here, alongside the Topham winner Arizona Cardinal and the recent Sefton winner King Turgeon.
It’s not a race I have a strong opinion on, but another course favourite, Percussion, could be a touch ignored at [25/1] for each way purposes.
Now, the reason for that is obvious – he is 6lb out of the handicap here – but a light weight may be no bad thing here and this is a horse placed twice in this very race, as well as two Seftons.
He shaped okay in the Sefton on his reappearance, after which he was dropped 4lb, so let’s have a look at his handicap mark here.
He effectively races off 131, but he raced off 136 when third (a 16 ½ length, granted) to Chambard last year, so maybe we should not get too hung up about weights and measures in this environment.
The first-time visor is an interesting move at the age of nine but the trainer has a fair record with this move (on a par with her general strike rate) and it could eke out some improvement, I guess.
I have to mention the form of Chambard’s trainer, Venetia Williams, at the moment. November and December are her favourite stomping months, and she is not disappointing of late.
And he looks pretty big at 14s in six spots (all offering four places), and a general 12s, with one firm offering five places at those odds.
He is only 5lb higher than last year, with 5lb claimer Lucy Turner again keeping the ride. His record when fresh is good enough to get me involved.
This has all the makings of a very warm 2m handicap, and Nemean Lion could have a job and a half on to give this lot 17lb and upwards.
More of him in a moment, though.
The unbeaten Kabral Du Mathan heads the early betting at [3/1], with Altobelli, Willmount, Knickerbockerglory all breathing down his neck.
But, unsurprisingly, Nicholls withdrew the favourite because of the going on Friday morning.
I’m sure many will see Willmount’s mark of 130 as a gift given the way his trainer talks of him, but I am not sold on him on this ground on the Sandown hurdles track after his blow-out in the Challow.
I’d prefer the claims of Knickerbockerglory and Altobelli, who filled the first two places at Ascot last November, and the winner is only 2lb higher here for that 4 ½-length success under a 5lb claimer (the runner-up is 3lb better off).
Furthermore, Dan Skelton’s horse (who I think was entered in the Fairyhouse handicap won by Washington last weekend, not that it means anything in itself) has proven course-and-distance form, which is a massive positive here.
The Sandown hurdles track is an acquired taste when it rides very testing (and even when it doesn’t) , and he finished second to Iceo here in a heavy-ground Imperial Cup in March 2023.
Yes, he didn’t fare as well when fifth in this year’s renewal, but it certainly wasn’t a bad effort, and this horse’s record when fresh is another obvious plus.
He excels off a break, and that Ascot win last season came first time up.
The issue is he was cut for pennies in the early Thursday markets. He opened up at 8s and [15/2] and was soon into 5s tops.
With Kabral Du Mathan coming out (who I didn’t fancy one jot), he has now obviously shortened further.
Any 4s or bigger is fair now, and that is AKBets’ revised price following the non-runner.
It looks like he will have a fair bit of competition for the lead, a windswept lead no less (see pace maps below).
Nemean Lion will have to be all of his 150 rating and probably a bit more to land this, but this Tolworth third has that valuable course form and will love the ground.
This is a tasty little race though, with all nine in with a chance. The two outsiders, 1lb out of the handicap, will love the slog.
Keep an eye out for non-runners here, as I outlined above.
I wrote in my ante-post piece on Monday that I wouldn’t want to lay [1/2] about Jonbon but, lo and behold, he opened up at [4/6] in four places.
That soon went, as did the [8/13].
I appreciate all eight stood their ground on Thursday morning, and it probably wouldn’t be ideal if heavy appeared in the chase going description (it was officially heavy when he won here last year, but Timeform called it soft), but I struggle to see how he is beaten with an error-free round.
Yes, I know he clouted one when he was beaten in the Clarence House last season but that was a rare blip and, as his record underlines, you can normally set your watch by this horse.
For all he meets some classy sorts in here – and Quilixios is perhaps his chief threat – he looks more of a [2/5] poke to me to make it four from four around here after a highly satisfactory comeback run.
They didn’t have him cherry-ripe in the Shloer, which explains why he didn’t blow anyone away that day.
He is now [4/7], which is too big on all known evidence.
By this time of the afternoon, I think it would be no bad thing to have a horse that stays 3m on your side in this 2m4f handicap.
The Nagger Reidy doesn’t quite meet that criteria, and I have never heard of his trainer Stephen Carey, but he looks a fair 7s poke to me.
I looked into Carey when doing the stable form below.
His strike rate in Ireland suggests he is a pretty canny operator with a small string and he has won with one of his three UK runners, with Mill House Creek sluicing up in a Stratford bumper in August 2023.
An issue (a rather big one, in truth) is that he was beaten off an Irish mark of 103 over an extended at Tipperary (by just a neck) last month and he has to race off 118 here.
He went up to 108 in Ireland after that run, and the UK assessor has him 10lb higher.
On the face of it, excessively harsh.
But he still may well win.
He was beaten by a progressive horse last time – the winner had previously been disqualified for a banned substance after scoring at Kilbeggan – the pair 11 lengths ckear, and he may well have won there but for fluffing the last.
This is only his sixth start over hurdles and his pedigree is stamina-laden and classy for this grade, being by Kayf Tara out of a dam who won over 2m4f on the Flat (rated 94 in that sphere) and over 3m over hurdles at this track on soft ground, funnily enough (rated 139 afterwards).
The UK handicapper has not played fair on the evidence to date, but he could be proven right.
The chase course rides a lot better than the hurdles track here but, even so, it will be a war of the fittest over an extended 3m4f in what will be the worst of the two-day chase ground in the gathering gloom.
I can fully see the case for Mr Vango in the conditions and [5/1] may well be fair – he went off 4s favourite for the 26-runner Scottish National off this mark in April, albeit he ran poorly – but the [25/1] outsider Dr Kananga is no forlorn hope.
The trainer’s Ooh Betty let me down when running mystifying poorly last week, but he is in otherwise fair form.
Dr Kananga lacks a recent run, which is a concern in these conditions, but he has now dropped to a mark of 117 from a peak of 140 and he has just crept into the handicap after Iwilldoit came out at the overnight stage and the weights were raised 4lb.
That was a good call then, as the horse had the option of the 3m handicap chase here on Friday.
Rex Dingle hopefully can do 10st 2lb standing on his head (or lifting one foot off the scales), and we know a test of stamina (albeit up to 3m2f) suits his mount, as does testing ground.
Trainer Ben Clarke has had four individual winners this season and all obliged first time out. I’ll take my chances that this is number five – and, yes, I appreciate he has had a fair few losers by the same token – and it is no bad thing that Dr Kananga can boast a course win, too.
He has worn headgear for his last five starts, but they are all ditched here. His best efforts have come without any, bar his usual tongue-tie, so I am happy enough there.
His rider wouldn’t want to get into a bunfight for the lead here (see pace map below and comments above) but a prominent ride off his low weight should be fine.
He is 25s in 12 spots, with three firms going four places.
Certainly Red is also in at Chepstow on Saturday, so they’ll be a small Rule 4 if he goes there. This race is his first preference though, unsurprisingly, as he loves it here.
If Aintree is off, I could be left with just the one tip/bet – I may throw a few quid on Knickerbockerglory too, if he drifts a bit – but that may be no bad thing in this ground.
Good luck.
Chambard at [14/1] each way, four places, in 14:07 at Aintree. Available in five places (12s, five places, with one firm)
The Nagger Reidy at [7/1] in 3.17 at Aintree. Available in two places (6s and 13/2 is fine)
Dr Kananga at [25/1] each way, four places, in 3.35pm at Sandown. Available with three firms.
NB: Other betting suggestions are in copy, not least Knickerbockerglory at [9/2] with AKBets.
SANDOWN
Going – Chase: Soft, good to soft in places; Hurdle: Soft, heavy in places
Going stick readings – Chase: 4.9; Hurdle: 4.4 (1oam Saturday)
Weather/Course update: 3mm rain on Saturday so far
AINTREE
Going: Soft; National: Soft, heavy in places
Going stick readings – Chase: 4.5; Hurdle; 4.4; National: 4.2 (3pm Wednesday) – Will be very interesting when updated.
Weather: 4mm Friday (3pm onwards); 12mm Saturday
COURSE UPDATE: “Saturday Amber weather warning for wind strengthening from the early hours and through the day. Current forecast suggests peak of 60-65mph gusts. Rain forecast throughout the day 10-15mm”
Laura Morgan visor; 5 from 36 since 2016 – Percussion, 2,07pm Aintree
1.32pm Aintree: Major Dundee (1lb), Now Where Or When (2lb), Gabiorot (3lb), Percussion (6lb)
2.25pm Sandown: Zambezi Fix (1lb), Royal Way (1lb)
1.15pm Sandown: Up For Parol, West To The Bridge?
1.32pm Aintree: Salamanca Bay, Cerendipity (prom)
1.50pm Sandown: Down Memory Lane, L’Eau du Sud, Soul Icon, Touch Me Not
2.07pm Aintree: Chianti Classico, Cruz Control, King Turgeon, Percussion (prom)
2.25pm Sandown: Nemean Lion (prom), Knockerbockerglory, Willmount, Altobelli?, Stream Of Stars, Royal Way (prom)
3.00pm Sandown: Edwardstone?, Quilixios, Solness
3.17pm Aintree: Dargiannini, Uncle Bert, The Lord Maid
3.35pm Sandown: Tommie Beau, Mr Vango, Top Of The Bill, Collectors Item (prom), Montgomery (prom), Dr Kananga
None have been bigger than 7-2, but Bailey has had six recent winners and has had 22 scorers at a strike rate of 22 per cent this season.
He ended last term with a whimper, with just seven winners from December to April, so that is a very welcome recent run of form.
Mind you, his last four runners have been beaten at 5-6, 5-2. 3-1 and 10-3, to add some balance.
He runs Chianti Classico in the Becher at Aintree.
Venetia Williams continues in great form too, as does Stuart Edmunds.
Good: James Owen, Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Alan King, Joe Tizzard, Henry De Bromhead, Olly Murphy, Kim Bailey, Venetia Williams (she is flying), Stuart Edmunds, Greenall and Guerriero
Fair: Gary and Josh Moore, Jamie Snowden, Dan Skelton (three winners on Friday, though), Gordon Elliott, Jonjo & AJ O’Neill, Donald McCain, Hobbs and White (three winners on Friday), Gary Hanmer (one winner from four recent runners), Harry Derham (double on Thursday), Kevin Pickard (three recent runners, one winner), Brian Ellison, Laura Morgan, Chris Gordon, Joseph O’Brien (25-1 winner on Friday), Joel Parkinson and Sue Smith, Stuart Crawford (9-1 chance beaten a nose on Tuesday and a 2-1 winner on Thursday), Harry Fry, Ben Clarke (arguably good), Neil Mulholland (double on Thursday)
Moderate: Ian Williams (18-1 winner on Thursday, though), Keiran Burke (mainly big prices though), Kerry Lee (small sample though), Bernard Llewellyn, Seamus Mullins, Evan Williams (borderline fair, with one recent winner), Tom Lacey, David Pipe (in strike rate terms)
Don’t know: Lydia Richards, Sara Bradstock, Stephen Carey (one recent runner beaten in a photo – it was the horse running on Saturday, in fact)
This weeks Racing Room podcast features: Intro Chat & Weekend Racing Review (0-8mins) Rory Campbell’s Betting Syndicate: Take 3…
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