TONY CALVIN: 25/1 chance in Yorkshire Oaks looks massively overpriced

Whisper it quietly, but Wednesday’s feast has given way to Thursday famine.

Everyone loves York and the Ebor week, but it is another big meeting that would probably be improved for dropping a day, for all that is fanciful talk, given that it will be a considerable cash cow for the track.

Perhaps I am just biased after immediately seeing three juvenile races on the Thursday card – and York certainly pass on the moolah in terms of prize money – so ignore me.

Let’s get stuck in.  In chronological order today, I think. And I ended up finding a few attractive bets, so ignore the early negativity.

1.50pm – 10/1 Time For Sandals looks a fair price

At least the 2yos in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes have a fair body of work to judge them on, as they have all at least raced twice.

One of the two with just a brace of runs under their belt is the unbeaten Leovanni, the general [2/1] favourite – [9/4] in a place – and it is easy to see why she heads the market, even if she carries a 3lb penalty for her Queen Mary win.

Run-style and pedigree suggest this extra furlong could well bring further improvement, though that was likely anyway given her lightly-raced profile.

Heavens Gate is her major form rival, which is reflected by the market, but Time For Sandals was probably the most attractive price to my untrained eye at a general [10/1].

A winner over this trip at Kempton on her debut, from a couple of fair sorts in Jouncy and Original Outlaw, she finished a good, close third when stepping back in trip for the Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury last time. The return to 6f must suit.

She is probably a fair each way shout, and she would be my idea of the best bet in the race as it stands, but I can fully resist the temptation to get involved myself from a tipping point of view.

I may back horses I decline to put up here (and I will have a modest each way bet on her at 10s) but only to sums that doesn’t really justify a strong selection.

As I always say, follow me in, if you wish.

2.25pm – 11/4 Maw Lam can maul them if starting on terms

A wave of disillusionment washed over me when I first saw this 22-runner 2yo sales race. Then disillusionment gave way to astonishment when I clocked the £508,150 pot, and the £249,908 first prize.

The winner will take home 100 bags more than last year’s victor Dragon Leader did, so hats off to William Derby and his team.

It is still a betting no-go as far as I am concerned though, as the market was never going to miss the form and timefigure claims of Maw Lam, Arizona Blaze and An Outlaw’s Grace.

Maw Lam heads the markets in most places at a high of [11/4] and if she nails the start here, then she could give these two lengths and a fair beating at these weights.

Ah, that “if” word, again. She would have gone very close in the Queen Mary if getting away on terms, but tardy starts have cost her on her last two outings, and it is a concern if you are taking short odds in a big field.

Three of these wear first-time headgear (see below) but none of the accompanying stats offer any positivity from that angle.

General [25/1] chance Midnight City shaped well on his debut at Newmarket and hails from the in-form Richard Spencer yard. He’d be my idea of my best outsider but I won’t be having a bet here.

3pm – 14/1 Aragon Castle has a good pace set-up

I have always regarded David O’Meara as a “numbers trainer” – along with the likes of Richard Hannon and Charlie Johnston and the like – and, as such, I find it impossible to get a handle on his runners.

You like to see some process in the trainers’ thoughts, rather than handicappers being wheeled out 20 times a year and hoping for the best.

I call them “spaghetti” trainers in that those with massive strings throw a lot at the wall and hope around 10 per cent of it sticks. That may be harsh, and it probably is, as they have to play the hands they are dealt, as effectively as possible.

And if it works financially, then great. But I find them too hard to read.

Willie Mullins and Aidan O’Brien are the upper-class versions – he is a numbers trainer too, and that is just the ones that make the track – but at least they have the premier ammo to keep strike-rates high.

Anyway, O’Meara has six of the 19 in here, and actually the trainer is having an excellent season, so you have to respect them all, although I find it a struggle to warm to them for the above reasons.

Maybe the one of his sextet at the prices is Bopedro, 16s and 14s in places but generally a 12s chance, as he has good course form, he has come down to a winnable mark and he has been running okay. He could pop up – and the trainer has mixed it up by putting cheekpieces on him that he last wore in September 2022 (probably not the same set, mind you) – but he is simply one of many with a realistic chance and the general 12s is nothing flash.

It is hard not to latch on to the claims of recent Ascot scorer Elnajmm, who is 2lb well-in under his 6lb penalty. But, then again, he is a top-priced [3/1] in a 19-runner handicap, and drawn a possibly unfavourable 17 of 19, and I can let them win unbacked and untipped every day of the week.

This is one of the few races of the day that I want to play in though, and Aragon Castle stood out to me.

Now, there is a kicker. I do think the general [12/1] about him is very fair, which is why I am tipping him obviously, but he could well drift.

Indeed, there is some 14s out there, six places. Take that if you can, but I can’t cherry-pick that combination in good faith. That won’t last, anyway.

We had a question on the podcast on Monday about the trend among bookmakers being less than generous in their early prices, especially about those quoted in double figures, and I have to agree.

Some of the percentages being offered up early doors are a joke (especially the firm that consistently wheel out the silly place terms, only to punish you on price and effectively block the SP option).

Anyway, I have backed him at 12s, and will go in again if he drifts.

The horse ran a curious race in many respects over 1m2f at Goodwood last time but, at the very least, he shaped a bit better than his beaten distance (nor far in the end), and in any case he was partially compromised right from the start by his wide draw in 12. He went down on his haunches leaving the stalls.

That didn’t allow him to adopt the forcing tactics that saw him previously make all to beat James McHenry (re-opposes here after a narrow second since) over an extended mile at Hamilton, and I think he is still reasonably treated off a 6lb higher mark here.

He may not be able to go from the front here either from stall 10, but the two other speed angles I had in here (see below) were in 18 and 19, so hopefully Andrew Balding and Hayley Turner are alive to the pace maps below and the possibilities, and they can re-adopt the aggressive tactics.

Turner needs to be switched on here and take advantage. Because she could well get it quite easy on the front end if she does.

Aside from the Hamilton win, I really like this 3yo’s profile. He bumped into a subsequent winner when second to Nellie Leylax at Haydock in May and then he did very well when getting into a pace tussle when just touched off at Goodwood next time.

There is more to come from him. I hope so anyway.

He is 12s in six places, and one of those firms are offering six places – so back him at that combinaton if you can – but I think 12s each way, five places, is the fairer way to play it,

I appreciate he is 3lb out of the handicap and I won’t include him in the tipping summary, but I am also going to have a personal small bet on Cruyff Turn at [33/1] each way, five places.

That is a lie, I already have. He is 33s in five spots.

He did well when third from a wide draw at Haydock last time and it is his York form that has lured me in at the price.

He actually won an 18-runner version of this race in 2021, off a 13lb higher mark, and he won here the following year.

Yes, I know he is drawn 19 or 19, he has been well stuffed here since, and he is 3lb wrong – hardly bet-inducing stuff – but he has never raced off lower than his current mark of 85 at this track.

In fact, he has never raced off lower than 88 at the Knavesmire, and that run here in May was not devoid of promise.

A very speculative, low-stakes each-way bet but a bet all the same. Come on board, if you so wish. The idea of this column is to let you make your own mind up, too.

3.35pm – 25/1 Sea Theme massively overpriced

We have a dangerous dead-eight in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks, so each-way punters keep ‘em peeled.

The obvious two against the field are Content and Emily Upjohn, available at 3s and 4s in places (though the latter is only 4s in one place), but I couldn’t get my head around Sea Theme being 25s.

Now, I know what I just said about eight runners, but I am going to bite the bullet and put her up 25s each way, three places.  She is that price in 12 places, and I don’t really get why.

I appreciate she currently lacks the class angle of the aforementioned pair (she is actually the joint lowest-rated horse in here) but she won the Galtres over course and distance last season and would appear to have put up a career-best when winning a Listed race at Clarefontaine last time.

Yes, I know Listed race at Clarefontaine is someway detached from Group 1 company at York, but she was very impressive there and maybe the penny has finally dropped with her.

Her win here last year apparently took a lot out of her, and she ran well behind Queen Of Pride on her return at Haydock before her write-off run behind the same filly in the Lancashire Oaks, a race in which she slipped on the bend.

Apparently, William Haggas thinks a fair bit of her, and is talking in terms of the Park Hill and Prix de Royallieu after this.

I am paying to find out if she is that anyway, as I think she looks more like a 12s poke here, and is my idea of the bet of the day.

No non-runners, please.

4.10pm – No 33/1 Climate denier here with that headgear stat

I thought this 1m4f Listed race was ripe for a shock – Sea Just In Time is surely far too short, even at a best-priced [6/4], and she makes the market for the rest – and I am going to let my first-time headgear stats guide me here.

Back Climate Friendly at [33/1] each way. The 33s is available in five places.

James Owen is making a bit of a splash in Newmarket by all accounts, and he had a welcome winner at 22s at Kempton on Tuesday (followed up by another scorer later in the day), and he has a career record of four from 11 when putting a visor on his horses for the first time.

That’s quite a cute stat, and I am more than willing to forgive Climate Friendly a woeful effort on her return at the punting graveyard that is the Newmarket July course at the start of the month.

She was also very weak in the market there on her first start since October, going off eight points bigger than her industry SP of [20/1] on the exchange.

If the headgear does the trick and she returns to the form of her length fourth in this race last season, then she will surely outrun those 33s quotes.

And I am happy to roll the dice each-way in a race where nothing scares me, as a top-rated filly of 100 (Satin is rated 99 in Ireland, though 103 in the UK it seems) in the contest underlines.

Any 20s or bigger each way is cool. There is actually some 33s, four places, out there as this piece goes live.

4.45pm – 7/1 Original Outlaw not really a wild one

Original Outlaw is the token choice at 7s but, once again, am I having a bet myself?

Nope.

5.20pm – Stamina doubt but International Girl too big at 25/1

I certainly wasn’t expecting to have a bet in the closing 18-runner handicap , but International Girl is surely overpriced at 25s, for all there is a major doubt about her, which we will come to.

I thought she would have gone very close to winning with a clear run, and a more aggressive, daring ride, at Ripon over 6f last time, and she actually got dropped 1lb for it.

Granted, the 7f trip is the massive question here.

She has never run anywhere near her best in four starts over this distance, including when eighth in this race last season, but I am going to give her one last chance, from stall three on quick ground on a speedy track. And she does appear to stay 6f strongly.

Given the stamina doubt, it has to be on the nose rather than each way.

Her trainer reckons her suitability to 7f is “inconclusive”, so let’s hope he is right to persevere.

I have my doubts but, again, I am paying to find out at the current price, anyway. Anys 20s or bigger is fine.

Go well.

BETS

Aragon Castle at [12/1] each way, five places, in 3pm at York. 12s is available in three places, but there is 14s, six places, in two spots – 12s is much the fairest recommendation, though.

Sea Theme at [25/1] each way in 3.35pm. Available in 12 places

Climate Friendly at [33/1] each way, three places, in 4.10pm at York. Available in five places (33s, four places, in one spot).

International Girl at [25/1] win-only in 5.20pm at York. Available in 13 places, including with AKBets.

GOING/WEATHER

YORK

GOING: Good to firm

GOING STICK: 7.4 at 6am Wednesday (next to nothing in readings between far, centre and stands’ side up home straight).

WEATHER: Dry Wednesday; 3mm+ from 10pm on Thursday

WATERING: “Saturday night 2mm on North and Home bend making a total irrigation of 6mm to North and Home bend and 4mm elsewhere applied in last 7 days .  Then 2mm Monday; 2mm Tuesday; probably the same on Wednesday night)

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Amy Murphy visor 1-33 (since 2016)

Tom Dascombe cheekpieces 14-164 (2016)

Adrian Keatley cheekpieces 4-30 (2016)

James Owen visor 4-11 (2023)

David O’Meara hood 14-137 (2012)

William Haggas blinkers 23-173 (2009)

BALLOTED OUT/SUPPLEMENTED

BALLOTED OUT – 2.25pm: Blue Dakota, Harry Palmer, Night Emperor, The Vital Spark, Jake Loves Laura, Where’s The Picnic

SUPPLEMENTED: Content in 3.35pm

PACE MAPS

1.50pm York:  Celandine (drawn 4), Heavens Gate (7), Leovanni (prominent – 8) Unspoken Love (prom – 3)

2.25pm York:  Arizona Blaze (4), Against The Wind (14), American Style (3), Bueno Nacho (1), High On Hope (6), Sensorium (21), Territorial Knight (prom – 5), Ghost Run (17), Graduated (11)

3.00pm York:  Dear My Friend (18), Aragon Castle (10), Cruyff Turn (19)

3.35pm York:  Port Fairy (8), You Got To Me (5) ?, Queen Of The Pride (prom – 6), Sea Theme (prom – 1)

4.10pm York:  Climate Friendly (11), Davina Grace (prom – 2), Esmeray (prom – 4), Karmology (prom, though has led – 3), Satin (prom – 8), Scenic (prom – 6), Noisy Jazz (prom – 1)

4.45pm York:  Hot Property (2), Seagalazo (7), Shazani (13), Qaseem (8), Miss Hathaway (5)

5.20pm York:  Raknah (7), Sunfal (8)l, Queen’s Reign (1), Coppull Hall Lane (14)

TRAINERFORM (does not include Wednesday’s results)

Excellent: William Haggas, Aidan O’Brien, Ralph Beckett, Owen Burrows

Good: Karl Burke, John and Thady Gosden, David O’Meara, Ed Bethell, Jim Goldie, Richard Spencer (very good), Ed Walker, Rae Guest, Jessie Harrington, George Scott, James Ferguson, Jack Channon (very good), Iain Jardine

Fair: Adrian Nicholls, Hugo Palmer (borderline good), Harry Eustace (could do with a winner), Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole (14-1 winner on Thursday), Eve Johnson Houghton (9-1 winner on Tuesday), David and Nicola Barron, Andrew Balding, Richard Fahey, Richard Hannon, Tim Easterby, Brian Ellison, Amy Murphy, Paul Attwater (two runners), Tom Dascombe, Jack Jones, Ismail Mohammed, Hughie Morrison (could do with a winner), Simon and Ed Crisford, Jane Chapple-Hyam, James Owen (22-1 and 7-4 winners on Tuesday)

Moderate: Charlie Appleby (moderate for him), Clive Cox (though couple of near misses), Charlie Johnston (massive numbers of runners, so obviously a few are running well, and a couple of winners in recent days), Kevin Ryan, Adrian Murray (nearer fair perhaps), Adrian Keatley (two have run okay), Dylan Cunha (possibly fair), Roger Fell and Sean Murray, Craig Lister, Gemma Tutty