TONY CALVIN: 22/1 chance in the last looks tempting on several levels

Staying loyal to horses is almost certainly a net negative, as you become blinded to the fresh challenges they face in future races.

I am of course talking about the 11yo Euchen Glen in the opener at 1.50pm on Friday.

Before I even looked at the 1m3f188yd handicap at 1.50pm, I instinctively thought the 14s in seven places was far too big, which made no sense at all as I had literally just seen he was running and little more. And I hadn’t even looked at the opposition.

It is why I am no fan of trackers, because they make you lazy and illogical. How could you have an opinion on his price before looking in depth at the claims of his rivals?

Twelve rivals, I may add, who have at least five years on the old boy, while there are three progressive handicappers from the Classic crop to contend with, too.

It is no surprise that the 3yos occupy three of the first four spots in the betting, while the other is the lightly-raced 4yo Shadow Dance.

1.50pm – 14/1 Euchen Glen no blind loyalty bet

After looking at the field there was indeed no way I would lay Euchen Glen at 14s – and I’ll admit to getting some via a friend on Thursday, so I hope he bolts up – and I was also surprised the 4lb well-in Lieber Power was available at [10/1], though the latter offer was soon accommodated.

So how am I going to play this at the current odds?

Well, I’d look pretty foolish if I blindly tipped Euchen Glen against horses he could be the grandfather of in equine terms.

But I was actually all set to do until the 14s all but dried up.

There is still 14s in one spot but I can’t tip into one set of fleeting prices (I simply cannot believe it is still there on the Oddschecker grid as this goes live, but take it while you can, if you can), and he is a general 11s and 10s now.

I am fully aware this is a tough race, perhaps tougher than those he has been competing in this season, but I thought he was given a very moderate ride and should have gone close to winning at Goodwood last time.

You could say I am biased because I tipped and had a good go on him there at big prices but, for a horse that can go forward, I’d be very interested to know why Rossa Ryan decided to hold him off so far off the pace. And the horse was also keen, to boot.

He roared home to be beaten just a length in fourth, and that was an opportunity missed.

For the sake of balance, that form was hardly advertised by the third and fifth, Great Bedwyn and Knightswood, in the 2m handicap on Wednesday (and five others out of the race have been beaten since, four badly so).

But you are not just hanging your hat on that one piece of form if you are backing Euchen Glen here.

He has been in great nick of late, and his York record is excellent. He has won twice here and among his excellent efforts in defeat were a fourth in last year’s Ebor off a 4lb higher mark than this, and a sixth in a strong John Smith’s Cup (a race he won in 2018) two starts ago.

I do think he remains a fair bet at the general 11s and 10s, but I was inclined to leave him alone now that I have missed the juicier prices for this column.

If you can get that ludicrous 14s, four places, then obviously do so, but I couldn’t tip that in good faith, knowing it won’t last.

Aside from the 3yos, Lieber Power is a serious threat, not least because the assessor has him with 4lb to play with here, and I couldn’t put you off him at 9s.

In fact, if you are playing then my two against the field are obviously him and Euchen Glen, who I may well rue not tipping.

In fact, a late call. I used to be undecided but now I am not so sure.

I am tipping Euchen Glen each way at 11s, four places, and going in again myself. That price is available with four bookmakers, but 10s is okay at a push.

2.25pm – 10/1 Alsakib the coming force

I should have mentioned that there is some rain due from Thursday night into Friday morning (maybe 10mm, maybe more, maybe less) but whether that has a significant impact on the ground is anyone’s guess.

It could well do. We saw on the final day at Goodwood that the watering final caught up with the ground.

And even more than forecast and the general 33s about Tashkhan would become interesting.

I won’t make any jokes about Align The Stars rocking up here on good to firm but another horse stepping up in class, Alsakib, is interesting at the [10/1] in three places. The 9s everywhere else is acceptable, too.

He actually doesn’t have that much to find with the form horses on official ratings after his win over 1m6f here last in a Group 3 here – though you could easily argue the proximity of Wise Eagle in third weight the form down – and he has the scope for further improvement here, as a 4yo having just his 12^th start.

And the manner in which he saw off his race to beat the 112-rated Al Qareem last time suggested this extended 2m would suit, too.

Now, this is a much deeper race but there are a fair few questions for the higher-rated horses to answer

Back him each way at 10s. And, again, the nine is fine, too.

3pm – 11/2 Andesite was the buzz Coventry horse

I won’t keep you long here as I don’t have a betting opinion, but I can’t forget the positivity surrounding Andesite for the Coventry before he got pulled out on the day.

I couldn’t remember why he got taken out there, but I had a quick google and he got injured in his box. I definitely recall Kark Burke being rather deflated that day.

Presumably it has taken a lot of love and attention to get him back. He undoubtedly looked a very smart prospect when winning here in May, when he edged out a subsequent Listed race winner in Ya Mo Be There, but the absence has you wondering that his current price of [11/2] would appear to be defensive.

He could be the best horse in this race, but perhaps not today.

3.35pm – What Clarendon House will turn up here?

I am not going to tell you anything beyond the bleedin’ obvious here.

Asfoora, unlucky to be chinned by Big Evs at Goodwood, is the correct favourite but she is surely far too short, even at a best-priced [2/1]. And that 2s is coming under pressure.

Outside of her, they all have their shot. We saw when Live In The Dream won this race at 28s last year that if any horse can get into a rhythm on the front end here, then they very often don’t come back.

I have four that would like to lead (see pace map below), and several others that want to sit just off it, so it could be a real bunfight early doors.

One horse who I backed yesterday wouldn’t ideally want to be too far away from the action.

I suggested this was the race for Clarendon House immediately after he won a handicap here off 105 here in May – so did the connections, to be fair, so I may have taken their lead – but since then he has been very hit and miss, failing to come out of the stalls at Epsom and erratically emerging from them here last time, and in between winning emphatically in Listed company at Cork.

I reckon he has Group 1 potential under optimum conditions.

I’ll admit to getting a bit of 40s about him on Thursday via the aforementioned friends and family option, and I still think the 33s is still a very fair price.

However, I do think a fast five on decent, ideally quick, ground is important to him, so that worsening forecast is a worry (as is his temperament), while who knows how he will take to the first-time cheekpieces?

Robert Cowell is a distinctly poor three from 105 with this first-time headgear since 2016, as well, which doesn’t engender confidence either.

I’ll wait and see until what the weather does and make a further betting decision on Friday. If I have a bet in the race, it will probably be Clarendon House again.  And I am half-expecting to do my money in cold blood as he stands still in the gates….

4.10pm – 10/1 Reach for the stars

Reach opened up at 10s in a couple of places on Wednesday – and that price still lingers in one place, though I can’t believe it will stand any significant cash pressure – but I am happy with the general [7/1], though there is also [15/2] in a spot.

Take the 10s and [15/2] if you can, clearly.

I’ll be backing her each way, five places.

I am a bit worried about the form of the stable (see below) but this horse has run two crackers in big-field handicaps here off this mark this season and all roads will have led to this race since June, I imagine.

She won this race last year, as well as winning a fillies-only handicap at Beverley earlier in the campaign, and she just looks a very solid place option, with strong winning claims, too.

And hopefully stall one proves a blessing. Very small sample clearly but in the four runnings of this race, the winners have come out of the following stalls: 3-1-1-4.

Out it this way, if she is out of the first five, I will be a much poorer bunny. Karmology, who ran on Thursday, is likely to be a non-runner I would have thought, so there may be a 5p Rule 4 on your bet.

4.45pm – Full field for 100k maiden but 7/1 Realign a big player

If you are going to put on a maiden at a big meeting at least make it a very expensive one and the Convivial is again worth 100k this season, and 52 bags to the winner.

It has attracted a maximum field of 20 (though none were balloted out) and it’ll probably take a 100-rated performance to win it.

If not quite that punchy, not far off.

Realign, 7s in a place, could be the answer but this is not really a betting heat.

William Haggas’s 2yo, a 550,000 euros Breeze-Up purchase in May, shaped very well when second on his debut at Newmarket, especially as he was up against horses with the benefit of experience (and he himself looked very green) and the winner, Shadow Of Light, is in the Gimcrack earlier on in the card.

He should give a good account of himself but what is he up against?

Angelo Buannaroti’s stable switches may have been a thing of comedy but he shaped well on his debut in the Coventry and is the [7/2] favourite.

5.20pm – 25/1 Usuario Amigo looks another fair headgear angle

Usuario Amigo is 25s in a place but 22s in nine places, and the latter odds, with five places, is surely worth an each-way nibble.

I have published this column before his stablemate (and full sister) Climate Friendly runs in the Galtres on Thursday in a first-time visor, as does the selection here  (Climate Friendly’s run wasn’t too clever, mind you)

But, prior to Thursday, Owen was four from 11 with this headgear angle and Usuario Amigo as potentially a well handicapped horse regardless after just being touched off at Newmarket last time.

He is also bred to better than a 87-rated horse, being a full brother to Group 1 Prix Morny winner Pretty Pollyanna, and some of his juvenile form makes him looks very nicely treated here.

He was beaten only ½ length by Kikkuli, for example, and his Newmarket novice form over 1m is evidence that this trip suits, too.

Any 20s or bigger looks very appealing.

Good luck.

BETS

Euchen Glen each way at 11/1, four places, in 1.50pm at York. Available in four places.

Alsakib each way at 10/1 in 2.25pm at York. Available in three places (9s is fine, too)

Reach each way at 7/1, five places, in 4.10pm at York (10s in a place, and 15/2). 7s available in five places.

Usuario Amigo each way at 22/1, five places, in 5.20pm at York (25s in a place). Available in nine places

GOING/WEATHER (updated 6.55am, Friday)

YORK

GOING: Good , good to firm in places

GOING STICK: 7.0 at 6.30m on Friday (readings still suggest little if anything between readings across track in straight, despite evidence of eyes)

WEATHER: 6.6mm overnight into Friday morning; only light showers now due, if any. Very strong winds on Friday, which will dry the ground out further, you’d assume.

WIND/MOISTURE:  “Wind speed and direction forecast at 3pm – Westerly cross wind 19mph gusting to 40mph. Moisture reading at 6am 23nd August: 32%”

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Robert Cowell cheekpieces 3-105 (since 2016)

Eve Johnson Houghton cheekpieces 10-118 (2016)

James Owen visor 4-12 (2023)

BALLOTED OUT/SUPPLEMENTED

None on Friday

PACE MAPS

1.50pm York:  Euchen Glen? (7), Grey Cuban  (8), Law Of The Sea (1), Mr Monaco? (5), Qitaal (12)- Dream Harder NR

2.25pm York:  Quickthorn  (2), Gregory? (1),  Point Lonsdale? (5), Tashkhan? (8), Night Sparkle? (7), Align The Stars (9)

3.00pm York:  Camille Pissarro? (1), Cool Hoof Luke (8), King’s Call (5), The Strikin Viking (10); other prominent racers, too

3.35pm York:  Big Evs (14),  Ponntos (1) , Washington Heights (prom – 10), Bradsell (prom – 3), Frost At Dawn (prom – 11); Pace angles Live In The Dream and Regional NRs

4.10pm York:  Al Anoud (4), Mysterious Love? (5), Invisible Friend (7), Shemozzle (12), Battle Queen (3);- Karmology  now a confirmed NR

4.45pm York:  No point in doing one given nature of race

5.20pm York:  Midnight Gun (13), Mount Teide (7), Native Warrior (15), Crown Estate (14), Paborus (prom – 9), Sailthisshipalone (prom – 10)

TRAINERFORM (does not include Thursday’s results)

Excellent: William Haggas, Aidan O’Brien, Ralph Beckett, Robert Eddery (three from six recently)

Good: Karl Burke, John and Thady Gosden, David O’Meara, Ed Bethell, Jim Goldie, Ed Walker, Kevin Coleman (not many runners), Hamad Al Jehani, George Boughey, David Menuisier, Alan King. Adam West, Willie Mullins, William Knight, Sir Michael Stoute, Roger Varian

Fair: Hugo Palmer (borderline good), Eve Johnson Houghton (9-1 winner on Tuesday), Andrew Balding, Richard Fahey, Tim Easterby, Brian Ellison, Jack Jones, Ismail Mohammed, Hughie Morrison (welcome 15-2 winner on Wednesday evening), James Owen (22-1 and 7-4 winners on Tuesday), Ian Williams, Archie Watson, Kate McGivern (very few runners), Kevin Philippart De Foy, David Evans. John Butler (18-1 winner on Wednesday), Tom Clover, James Fanshawe (borderline good), Paul and Oliver Cole, Kevin Ryan (double on Wednesday), Tracy Waggott, Mick Appleby (could do with a winner but a fair few horses running well)

Moderate: Charlie Appleby (moderate for him), Adrian Keatley (two have run okay), Robert Cowell, Michael Dods, Michael and David Easterby, David Marnane, William Muir and Chris Grassick, Charlie Johnston (maybe nearer fair), Charles Hills (few running better)

No idea: Miroslav Nieslanik, Henry Dwyer