TONY CALVIN: 20s, 14s and 6/1 chances worth a look on Saturday

It’s a good job the weather turned on Wednesday, or else we could have been into inspection territory at some of Saturday’s tracks – notably Ascot, where the round course was waterlogged in places in midweek – but it is drying conditions all the way now.

It’ll still be pretty testing at Ascot and Redcar, if less so at Newmarket – as we are regularly told, drying ground is often more attritional than freshly-wet conditions – so bear that in mind.

It’s not ideal anyway. Give punters uniform, quick ground, with no guesswork, and we are happy bunnies.

I’ll deal with the Arc in a separate piece for Sunday, but if anything catches my eye at Longchamp on Saturday (not on the main box), I’ll include on the end of this piece.

I’ll deal with the eight ITV races in chronological order. It’s probably a good thing that the shorties I was leaning towards were trimmed in since I wrote the first version of this column on Thursday, as the temptation was more easily resisted.

I did my usual check and sub on Friday morning, and plenty had changed overnight.

1.30pm Newmarket – 14/1 Queen Of Soldiers more focused in headgear?

On the face of it, Min Huna got harshly dealt with by the handicapper after her Sandown win last time. Upped 8lb for a 2-length win over a horse who beat only home next time suggests the assessor took into the trainer and the pedigree full into account rather than the bare form.

But the Dubawi filly did win well in a good time, and it was a further 4 ¾ lengths back to the third (who admittedly ran well in defeat on Thursday), so you can understand the official decision to give her a pound or two for luck.

I don’t think too many would argue that she is the most likely winner in here given the profile and the potential, but that is surely fully factored into her current, general price of [11/4], with 3s available in a spot.

I can let her win at that price, though.

I have long been of the opinion that Roger Varian’s record as a trainer (notwithstanding his Classic victories, such as Elmalka in the 1,000 Guineas this season) has not been fully up to scratch given the bluebloods he gets, but I am feeling a bit sorry for him of late.

He has had to deal with two high-profile and very tricky owners leaving him this season and he couldn’t buy a winner recently until a debutante 2yo went in for him at [15/8] on Thursday.

He actually had one thrown out at Pontefract just over a fortnight ago, and he has had four seconds (one beaten a short head) since, but they are simply not firing as the market would expect.

Granted, a lot of his horses are ridiculously over-bet, and you assume there is at least one punter (presumably doing it in) connected to the yard.

His Queen Of Soldiers is half-interesting here in first-time blinkers, though.

Now, she is a classic example of a filly who has not hit the heights her pedigree would have anticipated, or indeed her debut effort back in May.

She is by Sea The Stars out of a 1m4f Listed winner, and cost 380,000 euros as a yearling, yet she is nought from four (two short-priced defeats) and is rated a lowly 80.

But she looked as though some headgear could help when a career-best third to Yorkshire Lady (also runs here as a 14s chance, and the Varian filly is 3lb better off for 1 ½ lengths) at Ayr last time.

Well, I say a career-best, but she did finish a neck second to the now 109-rated Nakheel on her debut on good to soft at Ascot in May, with a certain Min Huna, now 6lb worse off, over 5 lengths away in sixth.

Varian has a decent enough record with first-time blinkers, as you can see below – it is on a par with his usual strike-rate, so I wouldn’t go overboard about it – and the 14s in a couple of places (general 12s) looks very fair.

I think an even better bet may be to back her without Min Huna as well, and the only firm up currently has her as a [17/2] chance there. That’s okay, too.

I am getting involved on both fronts, but I obviously can’t tip in the Without sphere with only one set of prices to go at (it has to be two at an absolute minimum given account closures etc).

1.50pm Ascot – Everything points to 13/8 Relief Rally, bar the price

Relief Rally runs here in preference to the 3pm on the card, or the Abbaye on Sunday, and I don’t have too much issue with her revised price of [13/8], available in nine places. The [7/4] got taken overnight.

The pace set-up in here should be ideal for her (see below), she is unpenalized for her Group and Listed race wins last season (Democracy Dilemma and Beautiful Diamond have 3lb penalties for Listed successes this year), and she bumped into an improver when a good second at Newbury recently.

Throw in proven course form and she is very much the one to beat, though I don’t bet or tip at her kind of her price, unless in extreme circumstances.

And it is not as if she has loads in hand on official figures here and she has to back up that Newbury run last time, which came off a four-month break. A concern of sorts.

2.05pm Newmarket – 20/1 May Encounter could give Candy the sweets

Four horses wear first-time headgear in here, including one of the market leaders, Brighton Boy.

The trainer’s wife Anna Lisa Balding pretty much flagged up some accoutrements (visions of Nick Luck enter my head then, he will be glad to know) were in the offing when saying the following in the immediate aftermath of the horse’s win at York last time.

She said: “I don’t think everyone would’ve won on Brighton Boy and he wasn’t concentrating on what he should’ve been on. He’s a big horse and we’ll get our heads together as he’s got a pretty bright future ahead of him.”

If they make a positive difference – see the trainer’s record in this situation below – then he clearly has a big chance, as he is already one of the form choices. But at [7/2], and 4s in one place, he looks a bit too skinny to me.

I’d have been looking for a bit bigger than [9/2] about Twafeeq too, for all that her sights are considerably lowered since going off an 8s chance in the Albany. Presumably, she has had an issue or two for this to be her next outing.

No such concerns for Afentiko, who makes a quick reappearance after running in France on Tuesday, and the opening [13/2] about him in a place on Thursday looked highly acceptable. Mind you, he was 4s best elsewhere at the time and as low as [11/4]. He has been trimmed into 5s, which is still fair.

That Listed contest he got beaten ½ length in on Tuesday could have been very decent too, as the winner is unbeaten and the third and fourth went into the race on the back of successes.

He’d probably be my favourite in this.

Another puzzlingly generous early price on Thursday was the 33s in two places (though effectively the same bookmaking outfit) about May Encounter.

If Varian is having a hard time, then Henry Candy is having an annus horribilis, with just two winners from 83 runners this year.

Something must have been up big-style for the impressively bushy-eyebrowed one, but he had a second at 22s with his last runner (at Bath on Tuesday), so hopefully the tide may be turning.

Certainly, his May Encounter shaped very well when third on her debut at Salisbury in July and I wouldn’t like be to laying the current 20s quotes in seven places.

I may throw a few quid at her, and save on Afentiko, but it is a tricky 20-runner race in fairness.

The interesting move here has been for the 59-rated Zoulu Warrior. Available at 125/1 and 100/1 in a few spots yesterday, he is into a top-priced 33s now and that is coming under pressure.

2.25pm Ascot – 5/2 Al Qareem has everything in his favour

We have the dangerous dead-eight in here but, in truth, I didn’t see a tempting each way bet, even if they all stood their ground by off-time.

The more I looked at this race, the more I felt Al Qareem was the bet at a generally available [11/4] because, not to put too fine a point on it, everything is in place for him to repeat his win in this contest last season.

But that [11/4] disappeared overnight and he is only [5/2] in two places – effectively the same firm – but the short-priced dagger was put back in its scabbard.

The fact that he hasn’t won a Group 3 since means he is unpenalized here (unlike the William Haggas pair of Al Aasy and Hamish, his market rivals) and that is an obvious plus.

He didn’t have to be at his best when making all at Chester last time, but that was clearly a good effort all the same, and I’d probably chalk up him up as more of a 2s chance in this.

Clifford Lee will need to get his fractions right, and hope he doesn’t get unwanted attention on the front end, but I reckon this is a very good set up for his horse.

If you want a bet in this race, I think it has to be Al Qareem if you can get that [5/2], which is also under pressure.

2.40pm Newmarket – 9/2 See The Fire could win a tricky Group 1

Stable form could have a part to play in the six-runner 275k Group 1 Chariot Stakes (Aidan O’Brien didn’t run any of his three five-day entries, hence the disappointing field size), as John and Thady Gosden are hardly cooking on gas at the moment.

There were on a long losing run going into Thursday’s racing, and only had five winners at a strike rate of 8 per cent in September too, and a welcomed [7/4] winner that evening is not evidence all is now rosy in Dad and The Slim’s garden.

That alone would put me off their Inspiral and Nashwa here at best odds of [3/1] and [9/2] here respectively (they are isolated prices, too).

I’d lean towards See The Fire here at [9/2] but I don’t see a pressing need to get involved.

That said, she is surely the bet in the race if you want one.

The form of her York win last time doesn’t really cut it in Group 1 terms, but she was dominant at the line there and her earlier, narrow second to Opera Singer in the Nassau gives her excellent claims, Unlike most of these, with the exception of Tamfana, she comes here on the up.

There isn’t any guaranteed pace in here, but I suspect the [50/1] outsider Darnation will chance her arm from the front.

3.00pm – Can the nightmare Vadream finally come good at 8/1?

This nine-runner 6f Group 3 didn’t really appeal as a betting medium.

For the simple reason, that if there is a bet to be had in the race it is probably Vadream at 8s, or even at the generally 7s….

Vadream hasn’t won since taking the Palace House Stakes in May 2023 and she is undoubtedly a frustrating sort, who has the habit of disappointing when she really should win (as in her third at Newmarket in August) and running stormers when she has no right to (witness her 1 ¾ length fourth at 50s in the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock last month).

If the Newton Le Willows mare turns up here – and she didn’t in the Flying Five last time – then she is obviously no 8s chance.

It’s just a matter of whether the best horse in the race, getting weight from his rivals (bar the 3yo, obviously), is worth a small-stakes win.

I’ll resist – for now. I may weaken near the off if she drifts. I have set 10s as my cliff-jumping moment.

3.20pm Redcar – 40/1 Another Candy-based winner maybe

A 20-runner juvenile race, spread right across the track, isn’t my idea of punting heaven.

There is little doubt that Billboard Star is the one to beat, both form-wise and on the clock, if her Mill Reef third in very deep ground hasn’t left its mark but a general price of 3s (7/2 in a place) tells you that.

The rest all have to up their game considerably to beat him at these weights – unless An Outlaw’s Grace returns to the form of his Papin fourth earlier in the summer – though a few have the potential to do so.

If you can get the 40s Candy, five places, then I think you are on to a very fair bet (the 50s went overnight). The 40s is available in four places.

I know he is only rated 85 and has to give 3lb to the 102-rated Billboard Star (so he is 20lb shy, as it stands) but I was very taken by his win in an Ayr nursery last time and the penny looks to have finally dropped with him.

Invictus Gold is more conservatively priced – though he drifted to 12s while I was in the scratcher – and he has to give the favourite 7lb but Tom Clover continues in cracking nick and he has an improver on his hands here, and one who put a fair sort to bed in style on the July course last time.

However, he is drawn 20 of 20, and who knows if the near or far side is the place to be.

3.35pm Ascot – 6/1 Qirat and 20/1 United Approach two against the field

He may head the betting at [6/1] but Qirat was the same price on Monday and each-way punters are now getting an extra place with most firms (AKbets bet to traditional terms but go a quarter the odds, when five places entails a fifth of the odds).

I normally shy away from the top of the market but Qirat strikes me as a handicapper with loads of upside in him.

The first thing I would say about this race is that please do get your money back on the 12 balloted out horses (see the list below)

Someone got in touch to say they still haven’t refunded takes on two balloted out horses he had backed, and it really isn’t on that punters should constantly have to chase to get money that is theirs.

Not on, at all. Note to bookmakers – if the horse has been balloted out, settle the bet immediately.

As a non-runner.

The angle into Qirat is that his 7f Goodwood win in May worked out very well and, despite running decent races in defeat over 1m subsequently, I got the impression he didn’t fully see out the longer trip.

I tipped him on his next two starts, only to see him taken out because the ground was too quick, and then I totally missed the fact that he was running at Goodwood on a Sunday.

Suffice to say, back to 7f, he was a well-backed winner there (opened up at 6s the day before, and won at [9/4]) and the length runner-up is now rated 10lb higher after winning a Listed race next time.

And I loved the way Qirat quickened up close home to put the race to bed there, though to be fair he did take a fair bit of stoking before that. Off a 5lb higher mark, he is surely weighed to win again, or at least go very close here.

The ease in the ground here is another plus, the stable is  going as well as ever, and at least he isn’t draw on the flanks in 12.

This is only his eighth start, he ran okay when sixth in the Britannia here, and I’ll be disappointed if he isn’t fighting out the finish here.

If you can access the [11/2], seven places, then please do, though that is a mirage for many. But I’ll settle for a win-only bet at the 6s across the board.

Golden Mind and Germanic are 3lb and 2lb well-in respectively and it is not hard to see the latter, an 8s chance, proving very popular given his profile.

And Golden Mind looked badly overpriced at the opening 18s and 16s on Thursday morning. He has understandably been shortened since, and 12s is a more representative price. That is still very fair.

But United Approach is the one I thought was well worth a saver.

He went up 4lb for a Classified Stakes second here last time, and good job he did I suppose as he wouldn’t have got into this 180k handicap otherwise.

That rise was justified too. The winner ran well in defeat next time, the third is an improver, and the fourth finished seventh in the Cambridgeshire last week.

We are obviously dealing with a very lightly-raced horse here, so there is plenty of improvement to come hopefully, and his earlier Newcastle form has worked out very well, too.

He split Make Me King and Grey’s Monument there, and they are rated 7lb and 6lb higher respectively now after both have won since.

James Tate’s horses are running well without winning, and the first-time cheekpieces are hopefully a positive.

Tate doesn’t have a great record with this angle (see below) but one of the horse’s half-brothers improved for them.

Annoyingly, the 22s, 20s and 18s went overnight (it would have been easy to stick this column up on Thursday but that really isn’t on)  – there is still one set of 20s but I can’t tip in isolation – but I still think the 16s (in 10 places) is acceptable for the second win-only dart.

I did have a look at the Longchamp races, but nothing stood out (if anything comes to light, I’ll stick it in tomorrow morning’s Arc column. but it didn’t look a great Saturday card there).

Just as well, as this column is already more War And Peace than a tabloid short-story.

Good luck.

 

BETS

Queen Of Soldiers win-only at [14/1] in 1.30pm at Newmarket. Available in two places (the general 12s is fine) – I’ll be looking to back her without Min Hana, too.

Qirat win-only at [6/1] in 3.35pm at Ascot. Available across the board

United Approach win-only at [16/1], in 3.35pm at Ascot. Available in 11 places (obviously, take the 20s in a place if you can).

 

 

GOING AND WEATHER FOR SATURDAY – updated 10am Saturday

 

ASCOT

 

Going – Straight: soft; Round; soft, heavy in places

Going stick – Straight: 7.0 (was 6.4 Friday); Round 5.4 (was 5.2 Friday)

Weather: Dry now

 

NEWMARKET

Going: Good to soft

Going stick: 6.3 as at 6am Saturday

Weather:; Dry now

 

REDCAR

Going: Soft, good to soft in places

Going stick: Promised later on Saturday morning

Weather: Dry now

 

LONGCHAMP

Going: Firmly in the good to soft ballpark now, heading towards good (in UK terms); Going on France Galop website given as “souple” (though that reading has firmed again into 3.6 on Saturday morning)

Turftrax going stick reading:  7.5 (good to soft); as of 10am Saturday

Weather: Dry sunny day on Saturday; rain arrives in early hours of Sunday (not a great deal due at moment, maybe 4mm – could be more, could be less)

 

 

BALLOTED OUT (make sure you get your money back on these – please note bookmakers)

 

2.05pm: Saxon Raider, Sovereign Applause

3.35pm Ascot: Granger Bay, Amphius, Back See Daa, Earls, Look Back Smiling, Paborus, Thunder Blue, Pearle d’Or, Hickory, Burdett, Apiarist, Transitioning

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

 

David O’Meara hood 15-139 (since 2012) – Mirsky, 3.35pm Ascot

 

James Tate cheekpieces 5-40 (2016) – United Approach, 3.35pm Ascot

 

Archie Watson cheekpieces 23-247 (2017) – Glitterati, 3.20pm Redcar

 

Roger Varian blinkers 22-143 (2011) – Queen of Soldiers, 1.30pm Newmarket

 

Andrew Balding cheekpieces 13-98 (2016) – Brighton Boy, 2.05pm Newmarket

 

Karl Burke visor 9-181 (2009) – Shining Pearl, 2.05pm Newmarket

 

Gay Kelleway cheekpieces 5-65 (2016) – Kyle of Lochalsh, 2.05pm Newmarket

 

Simon Pearce hood 0-2 (2022) – Forager, 2.05pm Newmarket

 

 

 

PACE MAPS

 

1.30pm Newmarket: La Pasionara?, Min Huna?, Noisy Jazz. Queen Of Soldiers?

1.50pm Ascot: Democracy Dilemma, Rumstar, Beautiful Diamond, Miaharris

2.05pm Newmarket: King Of Angels?, Zoulu Warrior, Shining Pearl, Twafeeq, Diomed Duke, Kyle of Lochalsh, Spirited Dancer, Fleetwater, Forager (Afentiko NR on Saturday morning)

2.25pm Ascot: Al Qareem

2.40pm Newmarket: No obvious pace, with Darnation perhaps the likely leader

3.00pm Ascot: Apollo One, Adaay In Devon

3.20pm Redcar: Candy?, Billboard Star, Glitterati, Ellaria Stand, American Style (other prominent racers in here)

3.35pm Ascot: Popmaster?, Germanic?, Volterra (plenty of other prominent racers)

 

TRAINERFORM (updated 8.30am Saturday): 

 

Excellent:  Tom Clover. Marcus Tregoning (two winners from four runners; small sample), James Owen, Ralph Beckett

Good: Richard Spencer, Dylan Cunha, Gary and Josh Moore, James Tate (despite no winners), Clive Cox, Simon Pearce (not many runners), Adrian Keatley. David O’Meara, Rebecca Menzies, Joseph O’Brien (treble on Thursday. and a 66-1 winner on Friday)

Fair: Michael Dods, Richard Fahey, Jedd O’Keeffe (very few runners), Eve Johnson Houghton (12-1 winner on Thursday, and another on Friday), Archie Watson. Jonathan Portman, Noel Meade, Jack Channon. Ed Walker (getting better again), Rod Millman, Michael Bell (needs more winners). Amanda Perrett (very few runners), James Fanshawe, Jane Chapple Hyam, Harry Charlton. Gavin Cromwell (winner on Friday), Jamie Osborne. Muir and Grassick (winner on Friday(, David Menuisier, Stuart Williams, Newland/Insole, Henry Candy (an astonishing two winners all year, though), Andrew Balding, Karl Burke (borderline good-ish). Michael and David Easterby, William Knight (winner on Friday), Rae Guest, Ollie Sangster, William Haggas (fair for him, good to others), Gemma Tutty, Kevin Ryan, Hugo Palmer, Adrian McGuinness, Charlie Fellowes, Paul and Oliver Cole, Charlie Johnston, Roger Varian (moderate run but winner on Thursday, plenty of seconds and he had a horse thrown out recently, too)

Moderate: Richard Hannon, Brian Ellison (recent 13-2 winner aside), Robert Cowell. John and Thady Gosden (welcome 7-4 winner on Thursday but they have been on a very poor run), Charalambous/Clutterbuck, Heather Main (odd one has run well), Gay Kelleway (not many runners), Patrick Owens, Stan Moore (two have run okay in defeat), Charles Hills (on a very bad losing run, despite some running well), Owen Burrows (very few runners, but gone quiet)