By Tony Calvin - 29 November 2024
A lot of people believe it is no big thing, which is fair enough, but how easy would it have been for Newcastle to post a line on the public BHA site about exactly how much water they have put down this week?
A 10-second job.
There have been no details of irrigation on the BHA site all week.
Why the reluctance?
Racing should take the (very) small wins where they can, and this is one simple area in which they should keep punters and the public informed.
No question.
The Saturday morning update says: “”Watered daily this week inclusive of a further pass around the stands bend this morning”.
Now, I have seen a couple of updates in the Racing Post during the week that said they have put on 6mm, so I assume they have been doing this daily. And maybe even again this morning.
I am sure trainers and owners can ring up for this information, but why not save them the trouble and post the exact details where they should be posted?
Like I said, it is probably no big thing for most – and whether they put down 6mm or 8mm yesterday is neither here nor there – but honesty and information goes a long way.
Anyway, it remains good at Newcastle. with an updated going stick reading of 6.9.
It was 7.0 on Thursday.
It is good to soft on the chase course at Newbury, and good to soft, soft in places, on the hurdles track (an assessment which the jockeys who rode there on Friday agreed with).
The respective going stick updates on Saturday are 4.3 and 3.9, from 4.2 and 3.8 respectively.
The most important note here is that Colonel Mustard is out of the Fighting Fifth Hurdle this morning (self cert – not eaten up), so we are down to seven.
And the racing rumour mill (normally bang wrong) reckons at least one of the big two could be the next non-runner on the block.
We shall see….
We have also lost three in the Newbury ITV races – outsider Dargiannini in the 1.54pm, Iron Bridge in the 3pm and Real Stone in the 3.35pm. The latter two have been pulled out because of the going.
As regards fresh bets I’ve decided to have a very small each way bet, with an extra place, on Anyharminasking. He may get away with it on the ground but it sounds as if it is genuinely good to soft, soft in places, on the hurdles track, so I wouldn’t be anywhere near as confident as I would be on good.
And he is hardly a win-machine, so each way with the best terms is the way to play to him.
The ground could also be a problem for Donny Boy in the 3.20pm at Newcastle – and he could be pulled out – but he has drifted to 16/1+ on the machine (visions of Wiltshire writing that) and I have chucked a few quid on him.
I half-expect he won’t run to be honest, as he does need some dig.
But, who knows, it may ride softer than forecast.
Good luck today.
——–
When you see Willie Mullins taking nine of his ten horses out at Thurles on Thursday on account of the (good) ground – and, granted, that track has had plenty of problems this season with abandonments due to the dry weather – it hammers home just what pressure clerks of the courses are under these days.
A thankless task.
Providing they have the capability to do so, the bottom line is they just have to water to ensure the field sizes hold up (even if they don’t really want to) and that is what Newcastle have done this week for their Fighting Fifth meeting on Saturday.
Newcastle watered to the tune of 6mm on Tuesday, had 7mm of rain on Wednesday, and are maybe due another 2mm on Friday.
The ground is good, and the Friday morning update from the course strongly suggests it ain’t getting any quicker.
It read: “Continued full day of watering through Friday”.
That sounds a lot, and I am not sure I have read that terminology before. It is what it is, though the amounts involved would be welcomed.
It should be obligatory, in fact.
Even so, given the above, Harry Derham has just taken out his three Newcastle runners on Saturday, including Brentford Hope in the Fighting Fifth.
No watering was required at Newbury after 13mm rain on Tuesday night kept the ground just where the clerk would have wanted.
On the easy side.
It is soft, good to soft in places, on the hurdles track, and, with the ground opened up after Friday’s meeting, it could be hard work (see below re rail movements and fresh ground though).
Nicky Henderson confirmed all four of his five-day entries, and they include the [4/1] favourite Impose Toi – that price could be coming under pressure, and I can see why – but regular readers will know I have been pretty sweet on Armyharminasking on a couple of occasions already this season, only to see him kept in his box at home.
Surprisingly, he was taken out on account of good ground in the Greatwood (albeit that was over 2m) and then the incessant Haydock rain understandably put paid to his chances of running there last weekend.
Fingers crossed, this is third time lucky on the running front and he at least gets the chance to confirm the promise of his run in first-time cheekpieces over this trip at Cheltenham in October.
He travelled so well when a good third in that race, hitting 2.6 in running – and I know he has flattered to deceive before – that he is surely well weighted off 135.
The on-the-show betting last time tells you he was backed from 18s to 16s there but he was a colossal drifter beforehand (he was trading in single figures when the betting opened), so that run was well above market expectations.
Perhaps the cheekpieces may have finally unlocked the winning potential.
I am sure I have that read that assessment someone else before…
He is certainly handicapped to win (or at least go very close) if he puts it all in. And if he handles the ground.
And, as I tend to say, “if” is the most expensive word in betting.
He is only 2lb higher than for his Welsh Champion Hurdle second last October, when he gave Nemean Lion a real fright over 2m. The winner was rated 16lb soon after.
And he finished second in this race last season off a 1lb higher mark, though he was beaten 7 lengths there, though by a horse that went off in front and didn’t come back (Anyharminasking went off at 10s and hit 2.08 in running, so he is undoubtedly an in-play flatterer).
So then it all came down to price, and those worries about the ground again.
He was 10s in three places on Thursday morning (including with one firm betting to five places) and that has all dried up, and now 9s is the best on offer, with that only available in one place.
I am going to take a watching brief on him and see how the ground rides, and the times, on Friday.
The latest going stick reading on the hurdles track is just 3.8, and that worries me for a horse who would ideally want better ground.
However, I am reliably told that most believe the ground at Newbury often rides quicker than the official updates. We shall see.
Expect an update on Saturday morning, or maybe late Friday afternoon.
I’m very surprised we have got nine entries (though Brentford Hope has been pulled out, so we are down to the dead-eight) but, as the betting suggests, I do think it is a match, even if the official ratings give one or two an outside squeak in this.
The race-fit Colonel Mustard is only 8lb shy respectively of Mystical Power.
From what I saw of Sir Gino at Cheltenham last January (and I fully accept his Grade 1 win at Aintree was much better in form terms, if lacking the visual wow factor of his previous success, perhaps understandably given the stable form at the time), I’d be very much with him at [5/4] against [13/8] Mystical Power.
It is not a betting opinion, though.
I thought 66s chance Tellherthename was a strange confirmation on Thursday morning, as he wouldn’t want to be blowing a mark of 135 here, even if he would cop 12k for finishing third.
Maybe they are simply coming here for an opening spin on better ground, with limited expectations, as he could have raced off 135 in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury. And he would have been among the market leaders there.
This could be a very warm Gerry Feilden, so each-way punters will probably need those enhanced place terms.
I wouldn’t be too bullish about nailing the winner then, but my two against the field are Ooh Betty and Ballee at 16s and 20s respectively.
Ballee needs to be a touch more tractable to take advantage of a decent handicap mark but I have to have him onside at 20s, available in six places.
He is only 1lb higher than a good second at Aintree last April, and he has had his wind done since blowing out in the Swinton in March, and he represents a stable going great guns (one of the form outfits in the country).
That Aintree race was a strange one but Ballee shaped like the best horse there given the way he fought his rider early doors, and there is improvement in him if they have calmed him down. This is only seventh start over hurdles, after all.
I’ll play him win-only, as he could have plenty of attention on the front end, so he may be a boom or bust job. Any 16s or bigger is fine.
I’ll be disappointed if more than three horses beat Ooh Betty home (in fact one firm offer her at 14s and go five places), and she is my main bet.
She is 18s in three places, two of which offer four places. Any 16s and 14s is fine, too.
She ended last season with an excellent second to Golden Ace in a Listed race at Cheltenham, with the now 129-rated Wyenot a neck behind in third (off levels), and I was very taken by her comeback win at Sandown.
Her trainer was of the opinion last season (to be fair that was in November 2023) that “quick ground was imperative for her, even good to soft is too soft for her”. but presumably he has had a change of heart since.
After that quote, she finished second on officially soft ground twice afterwards.
He may well take her out on the day if he thinks it is too deep for her (it really should be fine) but I can’t control that and it is money back if he does, anyway.
From what I saw of her at Sandown last time, her first run after a wind op, I think a 6lb rise is bridgeable and the 16s and 14s looks a very fair price, even in a warm handicap.
Trainer Ben Clarke is four from 14 this season, and two of those have been of late at [15/2] and [4/1].
And it could have been three had 12s chance El Bandido Pancho not come down when in with a winning chance two out at Lingfield on Thursday.
Only two withdrawals at the overnight stage, so little has changed since my thoughts on this race in Tuesday’s ante-post column.
You can read that by clicking on this link: https://tips.akbets.co.uk/tony-calvin-a-40-1-chance-is-just-too-big-to-ignore-at-newbury-on-saturday/
If you would rather be lazy, I’ll basically cut and paste the relevant section here.
I know Remastered is an 11yo now, and clearly vulnerable to the 6 and 7yos, but he is (hopefully) no 33 poke (the 40s was taken on Thursday).
Granted, he has failed to complete in five of his last seven races (and he was pulled up in this race last year), so he is arguably more of a win-only proposition, but he was still going perfectly well when a close up second to the ball-room-blitzer , now retired, Al Dancer in the Badger Beer last time, only to keel over 4 out.
This is a horse who won at Wincanton on his reappearance (after which the trainer said he was on the brink of being retired beforehand) and, let us not forget, finished second in this race in 2022 (off just a 3lb lower mark) and he can handle good and soft ground alike.
As with all 33s pokes, of course there are negatives.
And a fair few of them.
Namely, his age, that completion rate (he was actually trading at 2s in running when departing in this race in 2021, as well), and he was apparently also sore after that fall last time. And he is 1lb wrong here.
However, he looked to be going plenty well enough at Wincanton last time. I know it was a long way out but I am surprised he was dropped 1lb for it, so the latter weights and measures negative doesn’t bother me.
If you want to play it safer, then Galia Des Liteaux is definitely the lady of choice at 10s. That is only available in one place though, and she is a general 9s.
She ran well here on her only previous start, she ran promisingly on her return over an inadequate 2m4f, and the step back up in trip will obviously suit the Grand National eighth.
A mark of 144 looks very fair on a few of her efforts, too. I backed her, small, at 10s myself, win-only, on Thursday; feel free to follow me in.
She would ideally prefer more dig, but good to soft would be fine for her, if that description holds.
I suppose drying ground could be an issue for her, and she may drift as a result, so maybe she is another subject for the update.
The numbers have stood up very well from the five-day stage here, helped by the weights going up 8lb (top weights Sam Brown and Elvis Mail came out), which brought four of these into the handicap, including Donny Boy.
It is now a far more competitive race than I had anticipated and, to be honest, I reckon I could make a cogent case for at least six of these.
So I am sitting this out now.
I would have tipped Donny Boy at 8s on Tuesday had I known he was an intended runner, but trainer Nick Alexander kindly informed me he was on weather watch and not certain to line up, so I didn’t get involved.
But watering and rain since means the ground will be no quicker than good, and hopefully that should be okay for him.
He put up a good reappearance over an extended 2m4f at Ayr earlier in the month, a race he would have gone a lot closer to winning had he met the last fence right.
He went up 2lb for that run, which is fair enough, the step back up in trip will suit him, and his best form is over course and distance.
I am not having a fresh bet in the race, but if you fancy the [11/2] chance The Changing Man check out Joe Tizzard’s recent form in the “Trainer In Focus” section below.
It’s a no-bet race then, given the depth of the race, although the 10s about Gustavian is arguably the pick of the prices.
He was the big beneficiary of the weights going up at the overnight stage and he is effectively 4lb lower than when third in the Badger Beer last time (was 4lb out of the handicap there).
The stable is in good form and his better efforts have come on decent ground.
If you fancy the 5s chance The Changing Man check out Joe Tizzard’s recent form in the “Trainer In Focus” section below.
Actually, Frero Banbou at 12s, anyone?
I hear he is well handicapped, with a 5lb claimer thrown in for good measure, and due a win….
The hugely progressive Imperial Saint has gone up 21lb for his three wins, so he presents an interesting dilemma for backers and layers at a best-priced [5/2] in this 0-145 2m handicap chase.
That’s a neutral price for me, but there is little doubt this is a big test for him.
I was actually leaning towards Petit Tonnerre at [11/2] before I gave my head a wobble.
He was a strange confirmation for the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham earlier in the month (given his rating of just 127) but at least he didn’t do his mark any damage there and he probably shaped a bit better than the bare form.
As he always tends to do.
And he is 12lb better off for the ¾ length he was beaten by Imperial Saint at Aintree last month.
But is he a winner?
He is undoubtedly better than a 127-horse (indeed he was rated 139 when starting his chasing career, and he ran to that level, too) but he hasn’t won since February 2022.
Another race I’m happy to swerve. At the moment anyway.
Good luck.
Ooh Betty at [18/1] each way in 2.25pm at Newbury (available at 16s, four places, with one firm and a general 14s with 12 outfits – with one offering five places at those odds). 18s available in three places.
Ballee win-only in 2.25pm at Newbury. Available at 20s in seven places.
NB: Other betting pointers included above, notably Galia Des Liteaux in 3pm, and an update will follow on Saturday on the likes of Anyharminasking.
Remastered at [40/1] each way, four places in 3pm Newbury
GOING: Chase: Good to soft; Hurdle: Good to soft, soft in places
GOING STICK READINGS: Chase: 4.3 Hurdle: 3.9
WEATHER: Dry. Cloudy and 13 degrees.
“Rails: HURDLES: Centre (these will be moved across for fresh ground) FENCES: full width Split bends in place (fresh ground will be provided)”
GOING: Good
GOING STICK READING: 6.9 at 6.30am Saturday
WEATHER: Dry, 12 degrees
WATERING: “Watered daily this week inclusive of a further pass around the stands bend this morning”.
Dan Skelton cheekpieces; 17 from 109 since 2016 – Midnight River, 3pm Newbury
3pm Newbury: Remastered (1lb)
1.54pm Newbury: Hubrisko, Ivaldi, Inthewaterside, Spring Note, Guard The Moon, Gentle Slopes?
2.10pm Newcastle: Benson, Tellherthename
2.25pm Newbury: Salver, Ballee, Our Champ (prom), The Famous Five (prom), Navajo Indy, Excelero, Castlefort (prom)
3.00pm Newbury: Midnight River (prom), Senior Chief (prom), Broadway Boy, Grandero Bello?, Remastered (prom),
3.20pm Newcastle: Blackjack Magic (prom), Jet Plane, Bowtogreatness, Frero Banbou?, Gustavian
3.35pm Newbury: Etalon, I’d Like To Know, Jetronic
Tizzard has been in pretty fierce form since the summer and his stats for November make for particularly impressive reading.
Going into Friday’s racing (where he runs Scarface in the 2.30pm at Newbury), he was operating at a strike-rate of 29 per cent in the month (16 from 56), with a further 17 placed either second or third.
They had another winner on Thursday too, though he also had a losing 10-11 favourite, for balance.
Not too shabby, all told.
He runs The Changing Man in the 3.20pm at Newcastle on Saturday.
————–
Good: Paul Nicholls, Venetia Williams, Joe Tizzard (Trainer In Focus above), Anthony Honeyball, Nicky Henderson, Hobbs and White, Tom Symonds, Chris Gordon, Ben Clarke (small sample but going well), Jamie Snowden, Sam Thomas (four recent winners), Willie Mullins (probably more fair for him), Henry De Bromhead, Emma Lavelle, Gary and Josh Moore (four of the last seven have won after a modest spell)
Fair: Dan Skelton, Jonjo & AJ O’Neill, Ben Pauling (among the winners on Friday), Jane Williams, Nigel Twiston-Davies, David Pipe, Sandy Thomson (5-1 winner on Thursday), Killahena and McPherson (very small sample and no winners), Brian Ellison, Lizzie Quinlan, Eddie and Patrick Harty (though very few runners and no winners), Sam England
Moderate: Harry Derham (for him – though 15-2 winner on Friday), Adrian Keatley, George and Zetterholm
Don’t know: Richard Hobson (four recent runners have all been big prices), Lorna Fowler, Nick Alexander, Robert Walford (very small sample though, with a 6-5 chance being narrowly beaten)
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