TONY CALVIN: 16/1 chance will hopefully have punters hopping with joy

Not six foot Down

Look, we know it is the opening Cheltenham fixture of the 2024/25 season and it is the natural amphitheatre of jumps racing (insert your own flowery description here), but even the biggest fans of the track and the sport – chief among them Alastair Down, after whom Cheltenham’s press room is deservedly re-named on Friday – would admit it is a relatively underwhelming card.

It’s okay, but it isn’t great.

Incidentally, as soon as I received the press release about Down last week, I was relieved to clock it was “in honour of” instead “in memory of”.

I thought the old boy had pegged it unawares for a fleeting moment, though I did send a text to someone to check that “Fat Al”, as Big Mac used to call him in their Channel 4 days, wasn’t indeed six feet down.

Which was a relief, as he is a top bloke.

As is always the case, if I were ITV and Cheltenham, I would have switched the opening 13-runner handicap hurdle at 1.15pm with the five-runner novices’ chase at 1.50pm to ensure a better betting race is on the box – though I imagine the sponsors of the novices’ chase would have insisted on terrestrial coverage, which is fair enough –  but let’s deal with what we have.

1.50pm Cheltenham – 11/10 Path d’Oroux the obvious winner but big Rule 4 awaits

I hope it is a five-runner race anyway, as Gordon Elliott’s Shecouldbeanything (the early second favourite on Wednesday, ranging from 9/4 to 11/4, before settling at the current 5/2) is down to run late afternoon at Clonmel on Thursday (4.13pm).

I assume she will be a non-runner here then (that Clonmel race may not be worth much but it only has three runners, and she is the odds-on favourite) but who knows?

Maybe she will make a very quick turnaround but it looks rather unlikely.

The other thing to note in this novices’ chase is that Irish trainers are responsible for four of the five runners, and the other, Noble Anthem, is a 50s outsider trained by Adrian Keatley, himself a Kildare man.

I think that the Irish will be coming over here a lot more this season, and probably mopping up.

Fitness and stable form are obviously key at this time of year but if Path d’Oroux is anywhere near straight then he should be up to winning this. And his trainer Gavin Cromwell is in decent form (see trainerform below).

The one bookmaking outfit (two firms) that went [13/8] about him on Wednesday were soon forced to cut that – no doubt for buttons, if any money changed hands, that is – and one of the next mobs up went a mere [8/11].

The latter looks more on the money as, while Path d’Oroux is a maiden over fences, his third in the Grand Annual here off 142 is comfortably the best chase form on offer and obviously he isn’t penalized, unlike his four (or three) rivals.

I should mention the Cheltenham ground is good (they have been watering – see below) and that may be not ideal for Cromwell’s horse, though he has decent form on it (at Galway last August).

He is [11/10] in places but, clearly, there will be a big Rule 4 (and no each way betting) if the Elliott mare stays at home, though.

Probably 25p in the pound, maybe even 30p. So it is very important to note this.

She has just won easily in Clonmel by 5 lengths, by the way,

2.08pm Doncaster – 20/1 Rock Camelot could hold court

I have seen more attractive betting mediums than a dead-eight juvenile maiden fillies’ race on soft ground at Donny.

The four horses to have raced don’t set a high bar, with Janey Mackers the best of them after a promising enough third at Yarmouth on her debut, but it is the newcomer and Cracksman’s sister Queen Of Thieves who heads the betting at [13/8].

It could be the steal of the century in this race, or a rank-bad price.

I’ve no idea.

And the three other debutantes are not too shabby on breeding, including Wonder Star, a Sea The Stars filly who cost 200,000 guineas a yearling.

A race for the gossip backers, though Charlie Johnston has had a very welcome couple of winners in recent days and his 20s chance Rock Camelot didn’t run without promise on her debut at Salisbury and this 1m will suit on pedigree.

As maybe will the deeper ground.

2.25pm Cheltenham – Market has it right with Matata and Dancing dominating

We are also guessing on a fair few of these, fitness wise, though the form of the Nigel Twiston-Davies and Joe Tizzard stables would give you every hope that their runners in here are straight enough.

Indeed, the former’s Matata is the [9/4] favourite in here, his odds clipped in throughout Wednesday.

There are plenty of these that like to race prominently but Matata looks the most likely leader – he led to 2 out in the Arkle – and a mark of 147 looks fair on that run and his earlier Graded-chase form.

Given his excellent record when fresh, I’d agree he is the most likely winner too, even if the Twister has had a few reverses in recent days at short prices. T

he [9/4] about him looks an accurate enough assessment of his chances, if certainly not generous. He will surely drift a touch.

With Madara also originally confirmed for this race, disciples of The Pencil Man were set to be busy in the shops on Friday, but alas he was pulled out early on Wednesday. He was actually the early second favourite.

Henry De Bromhead is the “Trainer In Focus” below (though I have widened it out to mention three others) and his Dancing On My Own is only 2lb higher than when beating Triple Trade by 2 lengths in this race last season.

He won at odds-on a couple of months ago and I imagine this repeat bid has been the plan ever since, with the good ground a plus.

Even after Madara was taken out, he was bizarrely [13/2] in place on Wednesday but common sense soon prevailed and he is into [9/2], and that is available in just one places.

With the right two dominating the market, I couldn’t see a betting angle elsewhere, even if a few of these have claims, such as Calico.

2.43pm Doncaster – 16/1 Barley can have his supporters hopping for joy

Sierra Blanca is 1lb well-in here (see Ahead Of The Handicapper section below) and he rates a fair bet at 16s and 14s on that score alone, especially with the stable’s few horses running well at the moment.

That Haydock second last time was an improved effort in first-time blinkers (retained here), so this well-related individual has to be on your radar.

The 16s in a place and the general 14s is too big, so I am definitely having a win-only saver on him. I have no chance of accessing the 16s, so 14s will be my attempt.

We all know by now that Harper’s Ferry has the ability to laugh at his current mark of 93 if he puts it all in (his trainer reckons he is a lot better than that), so he is another to consider in a wide-open race at 8s and 7s.

However, the step back to 1m is a curious one, given the trainer’s comments in his Weekender column on Wednesday.

Maybe he won’t run anyway.

Walker said on Wednesday: “Harper’s Ferry is in such good nick that I am tempted to give him one last chance to end the year on a high in the 1m2f handicap at Doncaster.

“I thought his season was over when the ground turned against him at York and I won’t run him here if the ground is too soft.”

Make of that what you will, as he wasn’t confirmed for Saturday’s 1m2f handicap on Thursday morning. He is clearly the  joker, and maybe even the ace, in the pack here.

However, Barley surely looks the bet in here at 16s each way, four places, with two firms.

He may find one or two too well-handicapped for him (and me) to cop the jackpot, but he is a solid win and place proposition.

It took a lot of strength to watch the race back he finished third in at York last time (I was on the second at 14s beaten by a bob of the head, with the dreaded  “just failed” comment attached) but he ran a cracker in third off this mark there, and you can upgrade the run to a degree because of his run through and track position.

Not a lot, but some.

The horse is in very consistent form and he has run well on all three starts at this track (winning once, and arguably putting up two career-best efforts here) and he is ground-versatile and fully effective on soft.

Throw in the fact that Tim Easterby’s horses are running well at the moment, and he rates a very solid each way bet to me.

The 16s and 14s looks a good investment to me (as is obviously the 12s, with the two extra places, in fact, if you can access that), and I will be saving on Sierra Blanca.

3.00pm Cheltenham – Don’t dismiss 25/1 Dancing In Paris on hurdling debut

We have another justified shortie in here in the shape of Gale Mahler, a best-priced [8/11].

Granted, she has a 5lb penalty to carry but it is hard to fault her claims, as she has not looked back since being chinned at [6/5] on her debut in a Sedgefield bumper back In March (how’s yer luck if you backed her there?).

Six from six since, she bolted up in a Listed hurdle at Galway in July and she is the clear form standard-setter on that run.

And on the clock, too.

But she does face four unexposed last-time-out winners and an in-form 87-rated Flat hurdling debutant off the Flat in Dancing In Paris, so maybe she faces a harder task than the odds-on quotes suggest.

I won’t be having a bet but I probably wouldn’t lay the 25s about Dancing In Paris myself (basically because I am not in the habit of effectively playing at 1-25…)

One thing I would say is that he was a very late confirmation for this race just before 10am (I was tracking the decs) so maybe Ian Williams saw the small field and the 55k pot and decided to swing the bat.

After all, he was an improver over middle distances on the Flat in the summer and one well suited to this decent ground.

3.18pm Doncaster – 12/1 Magical Spirit is in his element

I am not going to waste too much of your time here with this 6f handicap

In fact, very little.

Wodao, 7s in places, is 2lb well-on and the other horse that caught my eye was Magical Spirit, winner of this race in 2021, at 12s (the early 14s was taken).

The latter hasn’t been running too well but he is down to a mark of 89 as a result and Doncaster on soft ground over 6f is his premier bag. He has any number of efforts in these conditions that would see him win this easily off 89.

So he’d be my idea of the bet in here at any double figures. In fact, I was very nearly tempted to tip him at 12s, 11s or 10s.

But it is a sprint handicap, after all. And the short-priced favourite Altmore could obviously be very difficult to beat.

3.35pm – 33/1 Wick Green looks overpriced on his Cheltenham exploits

Just one shy of a maximum field of 20 for this 3m1f amateur jockeys’ 0-125 handicap chase and unsurprisingly it is 6s the field if you shop around.

Even less of a shock was to see that is a Derek O’Connor on board for the early jolly Are U Wise To That, a course and distance winner. Ceansdana is now the joint fav after attracting some cash on Wednesday,

O’Connor’s mount looks well handicapped on the form of his win here last December, and he will obviously give him maximum assistance from the saddle.

I’ve seen easier (and better class) puzzles to solve it must be said, especially as I wouldn’t have a scooby doo as to the riding capabilities of a fair few of the jocks in here.

For example, I had never heard of Elliott England, which was rather unfortunate as I could see the case for his mount Wick Green at 33s.

Wick Green was a close third to stablemate Mole Court (also runs here again) off a 6lb higher mark in this race last year and he ran a bit better when third at Southwell last time.

The horse won in first-time cheekpieces last year, and it could be significant that a visor is now tried here.

He looked like he could do with something fresh on him at Southwell, as he didn’t travel that kindly for his jockey there in a small field.

The horse also ran well here when fourth over course and distance last November, so the 33s and 25s quotes could be a touch dismissive.

So I asked around about England, who the Racing Post tells me has only had four rides under Rules.

He seems to be a full-time employee of Ben Pauling’s and looks a young chap from pictures, and I found an article that described him winning on the stable’s Sforza Castle on Easter Monday. He has subsequently won on the same horse.

Basically, that told me jack shit, though. But further investigation revealed he is 4 from 33 in points, for what that is worth.

Too much guesswork in here for me in what looks an impossible race, but the 33s in a place and general 25s look fair on the face on it for Wick Green, for all he could be a regressive 11yo.

Another couple worth a second look in a hellish race could be Individualiste (has gone to Gavin Cromwell from Paul Nicholls) at 20s in a place, and 16s poke Planned Paradise, though his stable could do with a winner.

Go well.

 

BETS

Barley at [16/1] each way, four places, in 2.43pm at Doncaster. Available in two places (14s in 10 places very acceptable too)

NB: Personally I will also be having a win-only saver on Sierra Blanca in the race (at 16s and 14s)

 

GOING/WEATHER – updated 8am Friday

 

CHELTENHAM

Going:  Good

Going stick: 6.4 as at 6.30am Friday

Watering: 3-5mm applied selectively to maintain good ground

Weather:  Light showers around

 

DONCASTER

Going: Soft

Going stick: 6.1 as at 7.45am Friday

Weather:  Maybe some very light showers

 

BALLOTED OUT/SUPPLEMENTED

N/A

 

AHEAD OF THE HANDICAPPER

2.43pm Doncaster: Sierra Blanca (1lb well in)

3.18pm Doncaster: Wodao (2lb well-in)

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Jonjo O’Neill cheekpieces 14-96 (since 2016) +AJ 0-2 (2024) – Anyharminasking, 1.15pm Chelt

 

Robbie Llewellyn cheekpieces 0-6 (2022) but form figs of 2222F3 – Not But I Will, 3.35pm Chelt

 

Ben Pauling visor 1-7 (2014) – Wick Green, 3.35pm Chelt

 

Kevin Ryan blinkers 19-255 (2009) – Jehangeer, 3.18pm Donc

 

 PACE MAPS (manually done)

 

1.50pm Cheltenham: No obvious pace

2.08 Doncaster (obviously very little to go on): Rock Camelot

2.25pm Cheltenham: Matata, Dancing On My Own?, Calico, Arclight (prom), Scarface (prom), Sir Tivo (prom), Royal Mer (prom)

2.43 Doncaster: Hafeet Alain (prom), Midnight Gun, Flying Finn (prom), Mr King?, Ebts Guard (prom)

3.00pm Cheltenham: Brave Knight, Valgrand (prom), Gale Mahler (prom)

3.18 Doncaster: Commanche Falls?, Zoum Zoum?, Magical Spirit? (often a slow starter), Eminny

3.35pm Cheltenham: Back On The Lash (prom), Landen Calling (prom), Mole Court, The Newest One, St Denis’s Well, Hold Your Fort, No But I Will (prom), Wick Green, The Boola Boss. Individualiste (prom)

 

 

TRAINERFORM (manually done for ITV races; includes a “Trainer In Focus”) – updated 8am Friday

 

******TRAINER (S) IN FOCUS*****

 

Henry De Bromhead

Mick Appleby featured as a Trainer In Focus recently and he had his first winner for nearly a month at Wolverhampton on Thursday night.

He runs Eminny in the 3.18pm at Doncaster.

However, let’s focus on the National Hunt scene here.

I was going to highlight how Gordon Elliott has been struggling badly for winners – and they have – but it could have been looking a fair bit rosier if three recent photos had gone his way. They are certainly not in great form though, notwithstanding a 4-6 winner at Clonmel on Thursday (who is now a non-runner in the 1.50pm).

Henry De Bromhead’s runners are in very decent nick, with four winners from his last nine runners, with a couple of seconds in there.

That certainly wouldn’t put you off Dancing On My Own repeating last year’s win in the 2.25pm at Cheltenham.

Lastly, Tim Easterby has his string in much better winning form than is the usually the case, with another scorer on Thursday. He runs Barley in the 2.43pm at Doncaster, as you can see above.

 

 

Good: Joseph O’Brien, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Olly Murphy, Ben Pauling (another two winners on Wednesday), Rebecca Curtis, Henry De Bromhead (very good), Joe Tizzard, Karl Burke, John and Thady Gosden, Martyn Meade (if only three runners), Ralph Beckett, Tim Easterby (especially for him, as usually a numbers trainer with very low strike rate – going along well at the moment), John Ryan, Ed Walker. Dan Skelton (three winners on Wednesday)

Fair:  Cian Collins, Gavin Cromwell, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls, Adrian Keatley, Martin Keighley (winner on Wednesday), Jonjo and A J O’Neill, Kerry Lee (few runners), Ian Patrick Donoghue, Christian Williams (maybe more moderate), Keiran Burke, David Menuisier, William Muir and Chris Grassick, William Haggas, Hamad Al Jehani (very few runners), David O’Meara, Iain Jardine, Kevin Ryan, Grant Tuer, David Pipe, Henry Daly, Ian Williams (though four winners in a day recently), Gary Hanmer (17-2 winner on Thursday)

Moderate:  Gordon Elliott (4-6 winner at Clonmel on Thursday), John and Rhys Flint, Fergal O’Brien (winner on Thursday), Ross O’Sullivan, Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero (maybe more fair), Debra Hamer (though not many runners), Robbie Llewellyn, Henry Oliver (though very small sample, so questionable), Michael Dods (few have run okay but definitely moderate with no winner for three weeks), Jamie Osborne (definitely winner-wise, if some have gone well). Mick Appleby (stopped the rot with an 11-1 winner at Wolverhampton on Thursday, so keep an eye out for his runners now maybe),  Charlie Johnston (a 40-1 winner on Tuesday, and 13-2 scorer on Wednesday, so maybe harsh, but a very low strike rate)

Don’t know: Sam Drinkwater (very few runners)