By Tony Calvin - 14 February 2025
The going has firmed up a touch at Haydock and Ascot, and eased a bit at Wincanton (see updates below).
It was disappointing that Haydock and Wincanton had apparently still not updated their going stick readings, as at 9.53am, but Haydock have just announced it was 5.4 as at 11am.
It is 5.1 on chase course, and 5.6 on hurdles’ track.
It was actually 5.8 on Wednesday morning.
And, looking at the BHA site, I’d say there is a typo on their Saturday morning going stick update.
It says “4.2 as of Thursday 7.45am”, when I assume they meant Saturday.
The markets have been pretty static, in the main. And, of course, we are dealing with market moves on the back of very little money so far.
The morning lines are something of a Phoney War then.
Nothing much doing in the 1.15pm at Ascot, where Bective Abbey has drifted to 5/1 and Thank You Ma’am has shortened into 13/2.
Jingko Blue is now a 4/5 chance in the 1.50pm, with Lowry’s Bar a non-runner (bruised foot). Peaky Boy is perhaps stronger than The Changing Man behind him.
In the 2.25pm, the move for Classic King started mid-afternoon on Friday (was 12s), and he is now 6s, with the 7s just being taken.
Incidentally, this is another shortener after being put up as the nap in the Times.
I have mentioned this before, as they have a decent following, it seems; one to watch when the Racing Post selection box officially becomes known at 6pm the evening before.
Hasthing is currently winning the battle for favouritism in the 3pm, as a general 7/2 chance.
There have been no moves of any note in the 3.37pm, where we are waiting news of Corbetts Cross’ participation.
In the Kingwell Hurdle at 1.36pm at Wincanton, the feature of the betting has been the weakness of Burdett Road.
As short as 4/7 in places on Friday, he is now available at 6/5 in a spot, with Golden Ace the mover behind him.
The mare was available at 3s when the betting re-opened on Thursday, and she is now a 7/4 chance , and that is only available in one place.
Very little to report in the 2.05pm at Haydock, though Whistleinthedark has moved from 6s into 3s in what I imagine is a very light betting heat.
Who will go off favourite in the 2.40pm is a difficult one to call now, with Nemean Lion the big early mover to head the market alongside Beauport and Botox Has. All three are trading around the 3s mark.
In the 3.15pm, Royale Pagaille is relatively friendless at a general 10s, and the early betting is dominated by Apple Away at 7/2 and Yeah Man at 4s.
Apple Away was available at 8s (two bookmakers; one outfit) around 4pm on Friday, and she actually opened at 14s when the day-of-race markets appeared on Thursday.
She is the biggest early mover, but expect more dramatic action when the show prices come through on the ITV races.
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The five-runner novices’ hurdle has been kicked off ITV (now the 4.10pm) and this 17-runner handicap hurdle has been put in its place.
It may not be good news for those that like a short one to go at, but it’s a smart move for betting interest and turnover.
This race obviously wasn’t priced up at the start of the week (as it wasn’t due to be on the box), and I was waiting to see how low bookmakers priced up Bective Abbey here.
As low as [11/4] and as big as [7/2] was the answer.
It is now just [10/3]. You can see why they are so defensive.
So, in fact, those that like a shortie do actually have a candidate here.
A sole winner of his point, he came back sore from his hurdling debut at Doncaster in December 2023 (went off at [6/5] to beat his stablemate and current Stayers’ Hurdle third favourite Lucky Place) and then was given the necessary time off before beating a subsequent winner over 2m3f at Warwick on good ground in April.
An opening mark of 114 does not look overly-punitive – perhaps, generous even – and there is every reason to believe this stamina test will suit this unexposed point winner.
In short, he could be very hard to beat. As sexy as you like for betting purposes.
Dans Le Vent is the each-way alternative at 20s. Six firms are 20s, five places.
I backed him last time out but, as I feared beforehand, Windsor’s tight turns didn’t suit his hold-up style.
He was dropped 2lb for it though, and he is obviously on a winnable mark now on his 201/2022 back form.
Yes, he is a 12yo, but he ran well on both his previous starts at this track and he was a close third on his penultimate outing at Chepstow.
He is a frustrating horse to back (and watch), as he often sits too far out of his ground, but he has a lot going for him here each way at 20s and I have had a half-decent go on him with everything in place for him, including a strong pace (see below).
I wouldn’t be surprised if Bective Abbey gagged up, though.
I flagged Brentford Hope as being overpriced at 7s for this in my ante-post column on Tuesday and, having lost Nemean Lion and Fiercely Proud at the overnight stage, he now trades at [13/2] in a place, with three rivals to beat.
Of course, Burdett Road and Golden Ace, two of the other nine left in the Champion Hurdle, remain the two to beat – Brentford Hope is also still in at Cheltenham – but their prices arguably overplay their market dominance.
After all, Brentford Hope comes out as the same horse as Burdett Road at these weights, with Golden Ace 2lb clear of them on official figures.
You can see why the layers’ favour them, though, with Burdett Road at [8/11] and Golden Ace at [11/4].
That [8/11] will surely be coming under pressure too – only available in one spot – with the [10/11] and [5/6] already snapped up, along with the [4/5] on Friday morning.
Burdett Road, a general 20s chance in the filthy each way betting NRNB heat that is the Champion Hurdle, is on a steep upward curve and could take a lot of pegging back around here, while the step back down in trip also promises to suit last year’s Cheltenham Festival winner Golden Ace (50s in a place for the Champion).
Hansard is not totally without a chance at 20s (he missed last weekend’s big handicap hurdle as his bloods weren’t 100pc) but course winner Brentford Hope obviously has a lot more going for him after a good, if flattered, second to Constitution Hill in a slowly-run Unibet Hurdle last time.
However, it is easy to resist a bet at the current prices, now that the each way angle is no longer in play for Brentford Hope.
And I wanted that betting option with Burdett Road in the race, as he did run a cracker behind Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth in the Christmas Hurdle, and you can see him whizzing around here.
It would have been very close between Jingko Blue and Lowry’s Bar at Windsor last time had the runner-up not walked through the third-last.
So I’d be very much in the Lowry’s Bar camp at 2s, against [5/4] Jingko Blue, on 5lb better terms, even if connections are worried about the drying ground (so maybe he isn’t a definite runner).
However, Peaky Boy (one of four owner Oli Harris sent to the sales recently from the Nicky Henderson yard) and The Changing Man are no mugs, and they are 8s and 6s respectively.
Indeed, The Changing Man looks the call at 6s, if there is a betting call to be made here.
The 7s in two places on Thursday disappeared.
So many of the better prices are chipped away for little money on Thursdays now. But it was probably always thus.
Admittedly, he is beginning to look a bit of a twicer (second in four of his last five starts, and a faller in the other), but I like handicap form coming back into novice company and his efforts on the clock are more than a match for the market leaders.
Yes, the 6s about him is the best bet on offer here after very solid handicap efforts over 3m on decent ground here and at Donny.
I’ve backed him.
We lost half of the field in this veterans’ chase at the overnight stage, and it doesn’t look a great betting heat, as a result.
Maybe Whistleinthedark at the general 6s is okay, as he had the misfortune to bump into a rejuvenated (and smashed up) Le Milos at Warwick last week, and he is 2lb lower here.
I don’t get the reason why he is tried in cheekpieces again here though, as the only time he has worn them before (eight starts ago), he didn’t particularly excel, but that was off a mark of 142, I guess, and he is down to 120 now.
A hood I could understand, as he is three from three in that headgear.
I posted the stewards’ report in fully about Joyeux Machin’s last run at Wetherby in my ante-post column – read it here: https://tips.akbets.co.uk/tony-calvin-ante-post-action-from-ascot-haydock-and-wincanton-this-saturday/ – so I think the case for him pretty much writes itself after that.
He was 8s on Tuesday, and he is now into [9/2].
What I don’t get is why the handicapper only raised him 1lb for the Wetherby run to a mark of 133.
I would imagine most would have rated him as the winner (especially those who backed him from 20s to 11s on the show).
And, after all, the horse had previously run well above himself in the Unibet Hurdle on just his second start for the stable after coming over from Ireland (where he showed smart form over hurdles and fences, arguably to a higher level than 133), and the BHA handicappers would have been forgiven for getting creative in these circumstances.
In fact, go back and look at that Cheltenham run, and that was certainly not without promise, too.
Second-guessing this stable outfit is not to be recommended, and admittedly this is a difficult horse to get a handle on, but this Morebattle entry clearly has the potential to dance in here en route to taking in better prizes.
On a side point, it’d be interesting to know just who owners “Utb Racing” are. Indeed, the make-up of all syndicates.
Outside of Joyeux Machin , this really is a very open race, though Altobelli, as short as [7/2] in places, has an obvious chance, too.
Two 16s pokes that caught my eye were La Pinsonniere at 16s, up in trip, and Moveit Like Minnie, a solid third over course and distance to Albotelli last time off this mark.
In fact, La Pinsonniere is a very tempting each way bet at 16s, four places, with 10 books.
A 151,000 euros purchase from France in April 2024, where she was Grade 3-placed, her UK form to date may not fully warrant a mark of 125, but she bumped into one on her debut for the yard at Windsor (winner won by 17 lengths under a penalty next time, albeit in a weak race) and she looks sure to appreciate this longer trip after what I saw of her winning over 2m at Huntingdon last time.
Nicky Henderson had five in here at the five-day stage, but he relies on just one.
Hopefully, that is a big hint.
She has now drifted to 20s and 18s as at 4.45pm.
I favoured Botox Has at [9/2] over [2/1] Beauport earlier in the week, and I was very surprised that he opened up as big as 5s on Thursday.
Albeit briefly, as he was soon clipped into 4s and then [7/2], which is now the general price.
Of course, you have to fear the favourite, a Grand National entry who has run two crackers this season, over fences when winning by a meaty 31 lengths at Ascot off a mark of 144 and then finishing third in the Grade 1 (admittedly name-only) Long Walk.
He gets 6lb from the penalised duo of Botox Has and Nemean Lion, and he has an obvious chance.
Botox Has is his sole pace rival (from my way of looking at it anyway), but I can see Caoilin Quinn sitting a close second and then looking to kick on up the straight, as he did when winning this race last season.
He ran a hell of a lot better when third in the Cleeve Hurdle last time, and I can see him getting back on the winning trail here, and rain would be no hardship.
But this is not a two-way go by any means, as Nemean Lion is very dangerous stepping up to 3m for the first time and then you have talented chasers like Thunder Rock, Indiana Dream and Sounds Russian to consider.
If you want a bet in the race, I’d have a definite lean towards Botox Has, though I can personally leave that [7/2] alone now. The 5s was too peachy to last.
Regular readers will know what I made of Annsam’s run last time, and I still struggle to believe that the handicapper rewarded connections with a 2lb drop.
He featured in my ante-post column on Tuesday, when he was a general 16s poke, but I thought they may hold him back (if you pardon the expression) for the 150k handicap at Kempton next Saturday, a race he has run in twice before.
But they come here, and with an excellent chance after that means-to-an-end run last time, in which he was held up and given a kid gloves ride.
As ever, it comes down to the price, as this is a competitive handicap.
He was a general 16s in the ante-post market, and he opened up at 12s and 11s in places on Thursday (he was still 10s in two places mid-afternoon), so is he still worth backing now?
He is into just 9s with one bookmaking outfit (two firms) and as low as [13/2].
Given there isn’t a great deal of pace pressure in here (see below), you’d have thought they would revert to the forcing tactics that have served him so well in the past , and this course winner looks primed to excel again off a mark of 140.
You just have to take it in good faith that this has been the aim, as you’d hope and expect for a 100k pot.
Highstakesplayer has done little in his last two starts and has only been dropped 3lb – contrast that to Annsam’s treatment – but he still looks a contender here.
The Tom Lacey yard have been very quiet for many months now, and I am still not sure they are back firing, but a couple have run okay recently and his 9yo is 2lb lower than when chasing home Chianti Classico over course and distance in November.
At 12s, he is a very fair price.
I have backed both.
Well, Royale Pagaille has been entered, so I am rather surprised that we have got 10 runners (we only lost four at the overnight stage).
Whether or not 10 will still be in the race when the tape goes up, I am not so sure, but the changed overnight forecast (12mm now due on Saturday) will help.
But it has now changed again, with little or no rain now due on the two main sites I use (others says it will be wet).
Obviously, Royale Pagaille would any rain but he has to bounce back from a poor run in the Peter Marsh last time, where he just jump from the off.
And I also read earlier in the week that he has had an issue with a hoof, too.
So, for all he loves this place, his price of [8/1] is understandably big, even if his presence means that five of his nine rivals are out of the handicap.
And, in the case of Jubilee Express, to the tune of a hefty 8lb.
That has not stopped him being put in as the favourite here, albeit marginally from Yeah Man and Val Dancer (the latter is 6lb wrong), at prices ranging from 4s to 5s.
The Welsh National 1-2 of Val Dancer and Jubilee Express have it to do at the weights then, but they are both relatively lightly-raced 8yo chasers (particularly the latter) so you can see why they are being fully respected in the market.
I’d probably prefer Yeah Man and Famous Bridge each way, with the current ground (and the weights) possibly leading me more towards the former at [11/2], though the latter runs in first-time cheekpieces and the trainer has a good record here (see below).
The Grand National entry handles mud perfectly well – as he showed when winning this race last season – but his record on a decent surface is good too, not least his close second to Victtorino at Ascot in December 2023.
I can’t, and won’t tip it, anyway but if you can get the 5s Yeah Man, four places, out there, that would look very fair business to me.
There are question marks against of all these, and I would include last year’s winner Pic D’orhy in that, too.
He may have won last time but he was unimpressive in beating a 128-rated horse here in November, and I can easily let him win unbacked at a best-priced [15/8] (staggeringly, it would actually be his trainer’s first Grade 1 victory since he won this race last season).
Granted, his 5 1/2 length defeat of L’Homme Presse here last February looks very strong on paper but you wouldn’t see many given as soft a ride in a Grade 1 than the runner-up received that day.
I don’t particularly fancy Venetia Williams’ horse, and 2m5f around here doesn’t look an ideal sit for Corbetts Cross either (and he is no gift at [5/2] either) so I could see a shock, of sorts, in this.
Willie Mullins could have kept Blue Lord at home for the Red Mills at Gowran on Saturday (granted, he has two of the three runners in that, anyway) and at his 167-rated best he would give these all a tussle and a half.
His best form has been around the minimum trip and he has been running poorly, but he ran an excellent race, in the context of this Grade 1 and a half, when fourth in the John Durkan over 2m3f150yd in November and it was no surprise whatsoever that the last of the 20s in about seven places disappeared overnight.
He is just 12s now, but that is still not a price I’d be willing to lay myself.
With Ascot expecting the ground to be good on Saturday, connections of Corbetts Cross are making non-runner noises.
Trainer Emmet Mullins will assess the ground on Saturday morning.
He said: “It was good to soft at declarations and it’s now good in places. It looks like it could be good all over by Saturday morning so that would be a worry. If it gets to that, we’d have to think strongly about whether he runs.
“He’s in good form and travelled over well. All seems well with him and the trip should be fine but the ground would be more of a concern.”
La Pinsonniere at 16/1 each way, four places, in 2.25pm at Ascot. That combination is available with 10 firms (she has now drifted to 20s and 18s as at 4.45pm)
(Plenty of other bets and angles suggested in copy, so read away – Annsam at 9s win-only, available with two firms, is probably the next best – but I do also like Highstakesplayer in that race, along with The Changing Man at 6s, and Yeah Man each way at 5s, four places, if you can access that stand-out offer. as well as Dans Le Vent each way)
The prices ebbing away on Thursdays is a bit of a bore. Anyway, it’s all in there, so pick and choose if you agree.
Going – Good, good to soft in places
Going stick readings – Chase: 7.0; Hurdle 7.0 (Saturday 7am) -) were 6.5 and 6.9 respectively on Thursday)
Weather: Dry
Saturday course update: “Dry since Monday to 6.30am Saturday, 6.2mm rain recorded over the past 7 days. An odd light shower is possible on a cold and cloudy day. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing.
“The ground on the Home straight is a little tight and compacted in places and is being vertidrained on Thursday morning. It is possible that the Going will be Good in places by racing on Saturday.”
Going – Good to soft, soft in places
Going stick readings – 4.2 (Saturday 7.45am) – it was 4.7 at 8am on Thursday
Weather: Light showers
Saturday course update: “1mm of rainfall on Friday & 1mm so far Saturday. Forecast light showers Saturday morning (1-3mm). Clearing for racing.”
Rails: Separate bends – out between 8-12 yards. Hurdles positioned on stands side up the home straight.
Going – Chase: Good to soft; Hurdle: Good to soft, good in places
Going stick reading: 5.4, 11am Saturday – 5.1 on chase course and 5.6 over hurdles
(was 5.8 on Wednesday, 8am)
Weather: Light showers, if any
Saturday course update: “Dry overnight. Very brief odd shower today, with mostly dry and cloudy conditions. Max temp 4-5°C. 1mm last weekend, a further 2mm at the start of this week.”
Rails: Bends: Separate stable bends, each bend is out 11 yds from innermost line, adds 35yds per circuit. Shared hurdle east bend, out 12yds from innermost line, adds 38yds for hurdle, minus 54yds for chase per circuit. Obstacles: Three back-straight hurdles in central positions, out 5-7yds from innermost line. The last hurdle in the home straight remains in its ‘forward position’ 146yds from the winning line, therefore 13 obstacles will be jumped in a 3m hurdle race. Ground repair: Recovery has been slow since our last raceday, the track has had a roll repair to level out the surface. The obstacle positions and bend configurations offer the best available ground, the East Bend is entirely fresh.
Joe Tizzard blinkers 1-11 (since 2022) – Striking A Pose, 1.15pm Ascot
Joe Tizzard cheekpieces 2-16 (2022) – Bertie Wooster, 2.15pm Wincanton
O’Neills cheekpieces 0-6 (2024) – Country Park, 2,25pm Ascot
O’Neill cheekpieces 14-96 (2016) – see above
Anthony Honeyball blinkers 2-12 (2009) – Crest Of Fortune, 4.10pm Ascot & Talkingtothemoon, 4.35pm Wincanton
Harry Derham blinkers 0-1 (2024) – Push To Pass, 1.03pm Wincanton
Ben Clarke cheekpieces 0-3 (2022) – Good Friday Fairy, 2,15pm Wincanton
Henry Daly visor 3-20 (2010) – The Wrekin, 4.00pm Wincanton
Henry Daly cheekpieces 4-26 (2017) – Time In The Sun, 4.35pm Wincanton
Nicky Henderson cheekpieces 17-84 (2016) – Doddiethegreat, 12.55pm Haydock & Western Harmony, 4.35pm Wincanton
Gordon Elliott cheekpieces 25-212 (2016) – My Trump Card, 12.55pm Haydock
Nicky Richards cheekpieces 8-39 (2016) – Famous Bridge, 3.15pm Haydock
3.15pm Haydock: Famous Bridge (2lb), Where It All Began (4lb), Git Maker (5lb), Val Dancer (6lb), Jubilee Express (8lb)
1.15pm Ascot: Thank You Ma’am, Hardy Fella, Molto Bene (prom), Striking A Pose, Blue Hop, Jatiluwih, Pinnacle Peak, Boston Boy?
1.36pm Wincanton: Burdett Road, Brentford Hope?
1.50pm Ascot: Jingko Blue, Leave Of Absence, The Changing Man
2.05pm Haydock: The Edgar Wallace, Eaton Collina, Whistleinthedark?
2.25pm Ascot: Rightsotom, Jour D’Evasion
2.40pm Haydock: Botox Has (prom), Beauport
3pm Ascot: Threeunderthrufive, Annsam?, Goshen?, Highstakesplayer (prom)
3.15pm Haydock: Royale Pagaille (prom), Fontaine Collonges (prom), Galia Des Liteaux (prom), Git Maker (prom), Val Dancer, Jubilee Express (prom)
3.37pm Ascot: L’Homme Presse, Le Patron?, Pic D’Orhy?
4.10pm Ascot (has been kicked off ITV, but I already did it, so here you go): Groovy Blue, Old Cowboy?
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Some people dismiss stable form as a short-term irrelevance.
So presumably these gadgies will take no notice of Alan King’s comments in his Weekender column on Wednesday, some of which I have outlined below.
He said: “The horses aren’t quite right….so I am taking a pull with the horses for a moment, and I am going to be very quiet for a bit.
“We’ve had a fair few dirty noses since we vaccinated them over Christmas and the New Year and it’s just starting to spread across the yard.
“We will just see how long it takes to clear. The horses will tell me, I won’t tell them.”
Go and have a read of the Weekender if you want to read the whole column.
I bet King isn’t the only one with such troubles – Paul Nicholls is the same, I think – and it is simply that we don’t hear about them.
Stable form is just one small part of the puzzle – and, lo and behold, the stable had a winner with the monumental drifter Es Perfecto at Sandown on Thursday – but it is not one to ignore.
You just need to factor into your betting.
If you think the price more than compensates for the stable doubts, then crack on.
Ask Es Perfecto backers.
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Good: Kerry Lee, Harry Derham, Olly Murphy, Venetia Williams, Gavin Cromwell, Anthony Honeyball, Joe Tizzard, Hobbs and White, Emma Lavelle, Lucy Wadham, Emmet Mullins, Dan Skelton, Charlie Longsdon, Evan Williams (double on Wednesday, and a winner on Thursday, but maybe more fair overall), Lucinda Russell (7-1 winner on Thursday. and a treble on Friday), Gary and Josh Moore
Fair: James Owen, Ben Pauling, Jeremy Scott, Nick Alexander, Laura Morgan, Gordon Elliott, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Nicky Henderson, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill (double on Friday), Nicky Richards (winner on Thursday), Jamie Snowden, ,Fergal O’Brien, Henry Daly, Willie Mullins, Mel Rowley, Clive Boultbee-Brooks, Ben Brookhouse (no winners, though), Martin Keighley (no winners and arguably moderate), Ryan Potter, Newland and Insole
Moderate: Bailey and Nicholls (arguably harsh, as a 9-4 chance only beaten a short-head on Wednesday), Paul Nicholls (moderate for him), Harry Fry, David Pipe (8-13 winner on Thursday though. , and 12-1 second on Wednesday)
Don’t know: Gary Hanmer, Ruth Jefferson, Sam Thomas, Suzy Smith, Tom Lacey, Henry Oliver, Georgina Nicholls
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