By Tony Calvin - 1 November 2024
Despite the watering outlined below, the non-runners are beginning to filter through at Wetherby and Ascot, which shows you just what a thankless position clerks of the course are in.
Wetherby is now good and they have lost some of the big names from an already sparce card.
Grey Dawning was taken out of the Charlie Hall on Friday, and he has been joined on the sidelines by Thunder Rock, Dashel Drasher and Sandor Clegane in the Bet365 Hurdle, taking that field down to just four, and Spirits Bay in the 2m handicap hurdle on ITV.
Any criticism of the course is bang out of order. This is good ground we are talking about here, so get a grip.
It is also primarily good ground at Ascot but it is now good to firm in places on the hurdles course (full marks for honesty), which may scare some off this morning.
We now have six non-runners there at the time of publishing this latest update, with Our Power the most high-profile no-show in the Sodexo Gold Cup, but maybe expect more withdrawals.
Unfortunately, but let’s hope not.
The ground at Down Royal remains good to yielding, with a dry day forecast and 13-14 degrees. There is fresh ground on the hurdles track.
Thank goodness Ascot, Wetherby and Down Royal all watered this week, or else we could have been looking at some seriously small ITV fields on Saturday.
Runners are still not plentiful by any means – none of the five terrestrial races at Wetherby offer traditional 1,2,3 each way betting – but the courses had to relent and water, or else we could have had some embarrassing turnouts.
And we have all had some of them……
Don’t get me wrong.
There is no issue with tracks providing ground with good to firm somewhere in the description – it is probably safer than over-watered offerings – but there is little point if the trainers won’t play ball and run their horses on it.
A sorry state of affairs perhaps (who’d want to be a clerk with trainers attempting to pull you this way and that, noon and night – we have some fast-ground horses, after all) but we have to deal in the reality, and not the ideal.
A couple of non-betting thoughts occurred to me while I was waiting for the final UK and Irish fields to appear on Thursday morning.
The coverage that I have seen and read from Del Mar has been very samey and a touch dull – there is only so much you can spin from horses trotting and going half-speed each day, and looking very nice and shiny in their coats in the San Diego sunshine – so I thought one journo could show some initiative and set about asking all the trainers whether they would vote for Trump and Harris.
And, if they refuse to comment, mark them down for Trump….
That should narrow it down a touch, as how could you possibly back a horse (heaven forbid a filly or a mare) trained by a Trump supporter?
Imagine seeing your man saddling up your bet in a MAGA baseball cap?
Cash Out Time.
Trump would win the vox pop by a landslide, according to one Twitter user (yes, I know) who answered me. They got in touch on X and said all the trainers bar Motion are for Trump, and so are all of the backstretch grooms.
Truly frightening.
But each to their own.
Punting is a broad , and religion-free, church, after all.
And if you are a Trump supporter, I am only joking, so chill out…..
I actually forgot what my second thought was, but it came back to me in the end.
I appreciate it would be a great achievement for City Of Troy to win on dirt at Del Mar – against 13 rivals, with kick-back and a sign on his back for the other jockeys to aim at – but surely any measure of his greatness has to be judged by the actual performance he puts up?
Would victory be enough?
Probably – and certainly so, in basic media terms – but ratings measure greatness for the history books, and not trainer talk, popularity, media buy-in, or surface-versatility.
I can hear the Racing Post’s John Randall now…
I hope he (the horse, not John) sluices in to put everyone on the same celebratory page on Saturday evening.
Now, I wouldn’t be best placed to judge how strong this year’s Classic field is, but everyone seems to agree that City Of Troy is the form horse going into the race.
In fact, Timeform have him 3lb clear of Fierceness, and 7lb and more in front of the rest.
So he could run below his (surely inflated) UK turf rating of 128, and still win this without being at his best.
I’m not being a kill-joy (actually I probably am, as per usual) but it is something to bear in mind before any gnawing hyperbole kicks in.
There is a brilliant piece on the Sporting Life website about City Of Troy, in which the Daily Racing Form’s Southern California correspondent, Steve Andersen, is quoted.
It is well worth bearing in mind what he says about the opposition.
He said: “He’s meeting a sub-par field by Breeders’ Cup Classic standards, the American older horse Classic division is a wreck. Subsanador went out, some of the horses from the summer aren’t in training anymore. A couple retired. The three-year-old Dornoch is not running. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner White Abarrio is barely doing anything right now. He’s out of the picture.”
So let’s hope City Of Troy does it in style.
A leisurely intro over, so let’s crack on.
It is good, good to soft, in places at Wetherby. And the updated going stick readings on Friday suggests the watering has had an impact of sorts here.
Good news for Dan Skelton and Grey Dawning, though the trainer has kept his options open by also confirming him for the Colin Parker at Carlisle on Sunday.
Keep ’em peeled there.
This race wasn’t on the original ITV schedule at the start of the week, so there were no ante-post prices on this race for bookmakers to tweak and revise.
Not that the early betting would have given them much of a guide, as the numbers here went from 21 to just seven at the overnight stage (as I said above, just in case you wisely skipped the intro, we didn’t hit the eight mark for any of the five ITV races on the Wetherby card), which is obviously disappointing.
This looks a very tricky race anyway, with no guaranteed pace in this 2m3f+ handicap chase (see below – I have three possible forward-goers\, and I initially didn’t see a pressing need to get involved in such a lowly contest.
The more you look, the nastier it gets, though I’d be a fan of Ben Haslam (two recent Flat winners) and his Arthur’s Quay ran a lot better than it first appeared when a 50s chance in the 0-140 Bobby Renton here last month – his ownermate Jagwar won it at evens – and he got dropped 3lb for it.
If you want an interest, he’d be my idea of the speculative dart off a mark of 124. The general 16s (the 18s got taken on Thursday) looks the play in the race if you want one.
Actually, I’ll have a dabble myself – and it will be a minimum-stakes dabble given his profile – so I am tipping him at that general 16s on a very quiet betting day for me. He is 5lb lower than when winning well last November, just six starts ago.
I won’t take up too much of your time here, but I should mention that Ascot have put on 16mm this week (10mm Tuesday, 6mm Thursday).
Bad is owned by big Ascot sponsor David Howden, so you think he could be well tuned for his chasing debut and he is a on a very fair mark on his best hurdles form (which is also at this course).
Mind you, he improved for his reappearance run here last November and I have no idea how well he has taken to fences at home.
That 7s two places is a fair Camberwell carrot, though.
Stablemate Leader In The Park is the favourite, but he is also in at Carlisle on Sunday, so I imagine they may look at the ground for him on Saturday morning.
With her main ante-post market rivals Brighterdaysahead and Kateira no-shows, Luccia has hardened a touch in the betting to a general [4/6], though her price earlier in the week pretty much factored in the race cutting up.
As it has, with just the six runners.
With her 4lb penalty, first time out, this is certainly no penalty-kick for Luccia, though. She is [8/11] in a place, and she may be vulnerable here.
She was beaten as an [11/8] favourite in this race last year, but that was admittedly a far stronger renewal.
I wrote on Tuesday that Sweet Fantasy at 7s, three places, had the look of a bit of each-way filth and she certainly is the one I think has the potential to give the favourite a race, for all Take No Chances and Royal Eagle have better form claims going into the race.
Sweet Fantasy, still available at 7s (though only in two places), is obviously unexposed over hurdles and hails from an in-form yard (five of their last nine runners have won), but she does have a couple of rivals for the lead here and her better form has come on a softer surface.
And we haven’t seen her since May, too.
I’d not inclined to force a bet.
The closest I came to an ante-post tip on Tuesday was Saint Segal, but the 7s became [11/2] just before I filed, so the sword was put back in its scabbard.
He is only 4s now (generally [7/2]) and the horses I feared most earlier in the week remain – we only lost four runners at the overnight stage – not least the classy Master Chewy.
I do think Saint Segal is just about the most likely winner.
He finished third in the race last season, he shaped well enough on his reappearance and he looked set to win off a 1lb higher mark than this when falling at the last here in November.
But 4s is pretty much his price and he isn’t exactly a serial winner, is he.
The [2/1] ante-post favourite Strong Leader wasn’t confirmed for the race on Thursday morning, and his trainer Olly Murphy is relying on Thunder Rock instead, now a general 4s chance ([9/2] in a place).
A 156-rated chaser, getting 6lb from Dashel Drasher, Thunder Rock could well be a very able back-up and he could benefit from the pace in this race, too. He goes well when fresh, and he is dangerous at 4s.
The aforementioned Dashel Drasher is one of five potential early speed angles in here (see below) and he is looking to go two better than when a below-par third in this race last year.
He is an admirable performer but he is an 11yo now, he has that 6lb penalty, he probably would appreciate a bit more juice and his stable is hardly firing at the moment, for they had a good second at 12s at Stratford on Monday.
The 2023 Albert Bartlett third Sandor Clegane is interesting back over hurdles and in first-time cheekpieces but he hasn’t been missed in the market.
Kateira, who had the option of the mares’ hurdle, opened up at a ridiculous [13/2] with one bookmaking outfit (two firms).
That soon became 5s, then 4s, then a general 3s.
She has a solid chance but you never know what campaign the stable are plotting with the Aintree handicap winner and she did blow out at this meeting last year, albeit the ground wasn’t ideal. And her stamina is not proven.
I should point out that a few firms are paying three places here, so check out Oddschecker for those details.
Having had one final look at the race, Beacon Edge appeals most at the prices at 14s (the 16s was taken on Thursday) after a good fifth in a Pertemps qualifier off 146 at Cheltenham last week.
If he runs up to that form here, he won’t be far away. So I am betting.
Of course, he is not the force of old as a 10yo and the quick turnaround is an obvious worry – there is a chance that it was a last-minute decision to come here, and accompany his stablemates on the ferry, but at least he is race-fit – but I am going to punt him at 14s in what looks a very winnable race.
He looks the bet of the day at the current prices. I can see him starting in single figures.
Shark Hanlon was hoping for ground on the quick side for the [11/2] chance Hewick earlier in the week, but the course have been watering all week (and not telling us how much, the blighters), so the ball is well and truly in Gerri Colombe’s court here.
Of course, the times from Friday’s racing will tell us more on the ground front. Then again, the course may water again in the evening.
Last year’s winner Gerri Colombe is [8/11] in a place and is the clear form horse here, but that price wouldn’t be for me first time up on ground that may still be too lively for him.
I’d rather be a layer than a player at [8/11], if pushed. He is as short at [4/7] in places.
Oh, and I couldn’t see any guaranteed pace in here, so it’ll be interesting to see which jockey takes the initiative.
Another race that is one shy of traditional 1,2,3 each way betting.
Grey Dawning was as short as [11/8] earlier in the week, but he has drifted out to [9/4] in a place, which is probably more in keeping with his current rating.
And he has to give 3lb to horses rated 10lb and 9lb superior to him in Conflated and Bravemansgame, the latter trading at a best-priced [13/8].
Actually, Grey Dawning was [5/2] in a few places on Thursday, but that was all hoovered up.
I get that he has the most upside in here as an up-and-coming 7yo, but this is a tough task for him against established Grade 1 operators.
And, as stated above, the horse could be a non-runner and go to Carlisle on Sunday instead.
Big Rule 4 watch.
Bravemansgame could well bounce back to form after a winless 2023-24 campaign – he had his third wind op in the summer – but surely Conflated is the overpriced one, for all he was expected to run at Down Royal before being confirmed for this race and some rotter (s) made the [13/2] disappear on Thursday afternoon.
He didn’t get beyond the first in a race won by French Dynamite at Punchestown last month but if he is at best here then he is pretty much the one to beat.
Arguably so, anyway.
His second to Jonbon in the 2m4f Melling Chase is comfortably the best, relatively, recent form on offer here, and let us not forget he finished third in the 2023 Gold Cup (though Bravemansgame was 6 ½ lengths in front of him that day), so stamina shouldn’t be an issue around here.
Inconsistent yes, but just as talented as these on his day, and not priced accordingly. I respect the two market leaders, but the price differential between them and Conflated looks plain wrong.
And the Elliott yard is swinging into some decent form at last.
The 5s Conflated is definitely the bet in the race if you want one.
With Grey Dawning out and bookmakers betting 1/4 the odds 1,2, I couldn’t put anyone off backing Conflated each way at 7/2, available with four firms, including AKBets.
In fact, I have done that myself.
I’ll obviously be disappointed if he isn’t in the first two in this company, albeit his completion record is an obvious worry.
This is a crackingly competitive 2m handicap hurdle, with Fiercely Proud and Secret Squirrel fighting for favouritism at the [9/2] and [5/1] marks.
I would agree that those two are the right market leaders, especially Fiercely Proud.
He was obviously all the rage for a Cheltenham handicap last Friday before getting loose and being withdrawn, and a mark of 129 does look highly exploitable for him on his Kempton second to Lump Sum back in February.
However, dangers are not hard to find and Break My Soul (punting owners, so watch out there) and Rightsotom are lightly-raced lurkers.
It sounded like the owners wanted to roll the bigger dice instead of going for a handicap off 126 with Rightsotom at the start of last season, eyeing up the 4yo hurdle at the October Cheltenham meeting.
However, something clearly went wrong as we haven’t seen him since he won at Cork for Tom Mullins in May 2023, having previously taken in the Triumph Hurdle and the Grade 1 at Aintree. A stress-fracture, by all accounts.
Reading between the lines it appears he cost a fair whack (he was bought to replace the owners’ Ultima third Oscar Elite) and they’ll be hoping he can be competitive here off 126.
The 12s and 11s in places looks fair, especially with the Joe Tizzard stable going okay.
Alnilam didn’t appear in the recent Olly Murphy Racing Post stable, which I always view as a positive.
Conspiracy theories and plots and all that.
This horse won on his stable debut for the yard at Kelso before finishing tailed off when a [9/2] chance at Aintree in May, but surely something was wrong there, in addition to the keenness he showed.
I find it very surprising that the handicapper dropped him 2lb for that run – often runs like that are ignored as too bad to be true – and initial quotes of 16s in a few places were certainly tempting.
However, someone annoyingly gobbled up all the 16s and 14s and he is now a general [12/1] poke.
I know he has a lot to answer now after the Aintree run (and he does have a hit and miss profile, with his two stand-out runs coming at Kelso) but even the 12s is still fair.
The first-time hood is another unknown, and Murphy has a moderate record with it (see below).
A few firms are betting three places here, but clearly Alnilam is a win-only proposition given his profile if you want to side with him.
I’ll stop short of tipping him there. Mr Price Sensitive again.
Only three no-shows from the five-day stage, though they included last year’s winner Victtorino.
A very tricky race and not one I am going to have a bet in. At this stage anyway.
On stable form alone (Henry De Bromhead is probably the form trainer of those with runners in the ITV races) Amirite would have to interest you, and the horse looks fairly handicapped on his Kilbeggan second back in July.
Decent ground is what he wants and it is interesting they have got rid of the cheekpieces, which he has worn for his last two disappointing starts since that Kilbeggan run.
He’d be my token choice.
I am going to have a look at Saturday’s racing at Del Mar on Friday afternoon, a track I actually visited for the TVG Pacific Classic meeting in 2011.
I probably won’t get seriously involved, if at all – dipping in and out of the US form book once a year is a recipe for doing it in, and some of the copy I have read is very UK-centric, which possibly tells a story – but never say never.
Given my sleeping patterns, I’m heavy odds-on to be asleep by 9pm anyway, so I’ll probably not get involved at all.
Incidentally, AKBets report they will be betting the Grade 1s aggressively at Del Mar, so check out their prices, which are likely to be bold type on the Oddschecker grids.
And also check out AKBets’ US election video on Twitter, featuring David O’Reilly.
Good luck, all.
BETS
Arthur’s Quay at [16/1] in 1.15pm Wetherby. Available in 13 places.
Beacon Edge at [14/1] in 2.22pm at Wetherby. Available in 13 places.
NB: Note other possible betting plays and suggestions are in copy. Notably Conflated each way 1/4 the odds, two places, at 7/2.
The aim of this column is to give you all the information and stats and written arguments for you to decide for yourself.
GOING AND WEATHER – updated 7.30am Saturday
WETHERBY
Going: Good (7.30am Saturday)
Going stick – Hurdle: 6.6; Chase: 6.5 (taken on Saturday)
Weather: Dry
Watering: 5mm put down in places on Thursday, which has made a difference to stick readings
ASCOT
Going – Hurdle: Good, good to firm in places; Chase: Good
Going stick – Chase: 7.1; Hurdle: 7.8 (from 7am Thursday)
Weather: Dry, maybe a light shower
Watering: 10mm on Tuesday; 6mm in home straight on Thursday
DOWN ROYAL
Going: Good to yielding
Weather: Dry. 13-14 degrees
Watering: “Selective watering” has taken place
DEL MAR
Going: Firm
SUPPLEMENTED
Hewick, 2.40pm Down Royal (£15,000)
FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR
Paul Nolan cheekpieces. 4-30 since 2016 – Sandor Clegane, 2.22pm Wetherby
Olly Murphy hood, 4-37 since 2017 – Alnilam, 3.3pm Wetherby
BEHIND THE HANDICAPPER (out of the handicap)
2.05pm Ascot: Issar D’Airy (2lb), Frere D’Armes (3lb)
PACE MAPS FOR ALL ITV RACES
1.15pm Wetherby: Choosethenews?, Fusain?, Imperial Bede
1.30pm Ascot: What Path, Bhaloo, Leader In The Park
1.50pm Wetherby: Luccia?, Carrigeen Kampala, Sweet Fantasy
2.05pm Ascot: Uncle Phil, Matterhorn, Martator
2.22pm Wetherby: Allmankind, Beacon Edge, Sandor Clegane?, Twig?
2.40pm Down Royal – no guaranteed pacemaker in here, so lead is up for grabs
2.58pm Wetherby: French Dynamite, Bravemansgame, Conflated, Hang In There, Sam Brown (prom), The Real Whacker?
3.15pm Ascot: Our Champ?, Stoner’s Choice, Stream Of Stars, Afadil?, Rightsotom, Secret Squirrel?, Fire Flyer, Break My Soul, Jour D’Evasion?
3.22pm Wetherby: Alnilam (prom), Salsada (prom), Piecedereistance (prom), V Twelve
3.45pm Ascot: Two For Gold?, Solo, Amirite (prom), Flegmatiki?, Highstakesplayer (prom), Mylesfromwicklow,
8.21pm Del Mar: Alice Verite
9.01pm Del Mar: Luxembourg, Jayarebe, Far Bridge?, Cabo Spirit?, Wingspan
9.41pm De Mar: City Of Troy, Fiereceness? , Arthur’s Ride
TRAINERFORM (manually down; includes a “Trainer (s) In Focus”) – updated 8.30am Saturday
************TRAINERS IN FOCUS**********
Chris Gordon:
We have mentioned him recently but he still hasn’t had a winner since May, flat or jumps. His Aucunrisque ran well last week, but that is a rare bright spot in an otherwise dull spell.
Christian Williams:
He has only had two winners since the start of August and, although he has had a few near-misses – notably Weveallbeencaught – he must be getting a tad frustrated now, with an evens chance stuffed out of sight at Fakenham on Wednesday.
Mind you, I could have included the likes of Jeremy Scott (winless since July, but not masses of runners, to be fair and he had a good second at 12s on Thursday) in here, too.
******************************
Good: Kieran Burke (very few runners), Nigel Twiston-Davies, Suzy Smith (only two runners), Ben Haslam (two recent Flat winners), Dan Skelton, Patrick Neville, Mouse Morris (very few runners), Anthony Honeyball (very few runners but another winner on Thursday), Henry De Bromhead, James Owen (five of his last nine runners have won), Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, David Pipe (more winners on Thursday and Friday)
Fair: Paul Nicholls (arguably more moderate for him), Jane Williams, Gary and Josh Moore, Fergal O’Brien, Ben Pauling, Joe Tizzard (22-1 winner on Friday), Kim Bailey, Emma Lavelle, Olly Murphy, Brian Ellison, Martin Todhunter, Gavin Cromwell, Nicky Henderson, Neil Mulholland (winner and 40-1 second on Friday), Paul Nolan (borderline moderate), The O’Neills (two recent winners at short odds), Hughie Morrison (winner on Friday), Henry Daly, Sam Thomas (one win from four), Tom Lacey, Mark Walford (12-1 winner on Friday and could be coming into form)
Moderate: Chris Gordon, Christian Williams, Micky Hammond (though many have been huge prices), Jeremy Scott
Don’t know: Peter Niven (not enough runners), Venetia Williams, Pam Sly (probably more moderate), Shark Hanlon (very few runners), Lawney Hill, Samuel Drinkwater, Peter Winks, Ben Clarke
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