TONY CALVIN: 14/1 chance a Flaming good bet at Doncaster

The good news is that this column won’t be as verbose as Saturday’s – that is to say it’ll be a more manageable read, and I’ll cut out the unfunny waffle – but all the stats and information are included, as always.

In fact, the first-time headgear records cover the whole Doncaster and Curragh cards, and I’ll readily admit I hadn’t heard of one or two trainers in the form section.

I suppose that is one of the downsides of dipping into Irish racing only once in a while – especially the sprint handicaps with unfamiliar horses – but we will do our best.

Right, it’s a sunny Saturday morning here in SM4 – channeling my inner Lucky there – so let’s get cracking.

The four-day Doncaster meeting does end with a bit of a whimper, but I have a found a bet there at a price.

2.05pm Doncaster – 8/1 Brave Nation could be the answer to a very open race

I wouldn’t say that 5f handicaps are really my bag – mainly because they aren’t – but there were a couple of angles into this 11-runner race, a contest in which all obviously have their chance.

The 8s poke Brave Nation has a great record here with course form figures of 1211, with the defeat coming by just ½ length in a 12-runner handicap. He also comes here in decent form and will like the drying ground.

He looks very solid.

The second angle into the race is trainer Michael Herrington. He has made it into the trainer-form section a few times this season, and he does so again here in the “excellent” category after another good run of results.

He runs Badri and Good Earth, [13/2] and [7/1] chances respectively, and I couldn’t put you off either of those, especially as there is plenty of pace in here (see pace maps below) and both will probably be produced late.

However, again, I come back to the fact that these sprint handicaps are very much “your turn” races, and I need a compelling reason to get involved.

Which I don’t see here. Brave Nation is a fair price at 8s in two places, and the general 7s, though.

2.40pm Doncaster – 12/1 Thunder Blue solid but not spectacular

The market is predictably dominated by the lightly-raced, progressive ones in here, with Ten Pounds winning the battle for favouritism at the moment at a top-priced [4/1].

Fifty Nifty, Germanic and Paborus are not far behind him in the betting at 5s and 6s though, and I don’t have too much of an issue with the market assessment that it is heavy odds-on that one of that four obliges.

But Thunder Blue is the solid but unspectacular one and I wouldn’t be laying him at the generally available [12/1], including with AKBets.

The downsides are that he is far more exposed than the ones at the top of the market and being drawn 11 of 11 may not prove ideal – and his two starts over 7f haven’t been great – but he is only 1lb higher than being touched off in a good time over 6f at Newcastle last time.

I can see him running well, but perhaps not quite well enough to win.

3.15pm Doncaster – 11/4 Fair Angellica big chance but underpriced

The lead is there for Finley Marsh on Fair Angellica if he wants it – I couldn’t see any other guaranteed front-runner in here – and he really should take advantage.

The filly is also just about the form horse in here at these weights too, after an impressive win in Listed company in France last time.

I can fully see the case for her, and she is the most likely winner, but the problem is her price.

She is a general [5/2] chance – there is one spot of [11/4] – and that makes absolutely no appeal.

Ziggy’s Dream is more appealing from an odds perspective at 12s, but this is a very deep race – that is to say I wouldn’t be in a rush to rule out many of the 12 – and I am happy to leave well alone.

3.45pm Doncaster – 14/1 Hartswood the one in the Leger Legends

It is easy to be dismissive of the Leger Legends race and, of course it isn’t a serious betting contest, but it has Graham Lee’s name attached to it this year, so presumably they are raising funds for him.

In which case it’s in a brilliant cause.

I did have a fair look at the race to be fair, as I was struggling for bets at Doncaster, and the 14s about Hartswood tempted me.

I think I am right in saying Sammy Jo Bell rides work at Richard Fahey’s, so hopefully she knows Hartswood well, and she gets on a horse who has plummeted down the handicap and steps back down to his optimum trip here after racing over an extended 1m2f at Newcastle last time.

He travelled kindly for a long way there, and the handicapper has been generous in dropping him 3lb in one hit.

He has run well on his only start at the track, too. If you want a bet in the race, then Hartswood is definitely the one at 14s (generally available 12s).

4.15pm Doncaster – 14/1 Flaming Rib well worth a chance

Flaming Rib was the one that stood out at me here at [14/1] in a place, and a general 12s, including with AKBets.

I am going to play him each-way in this 11-runner race. Five firms are offering four places, so obviously access those if you can. The 12s is more than fine.

He had been running like a drain (finishing last in consecutive starts, not beaten any of his 31 rivals) prior to showing a lot more at Chester last time.

In fact, he was nibbled at in the betting there and showed a lot more, not beaten far, despite being squeezed up a bit close home.

The handicapper dropped him another 1lb for that run and he has now come down 17lb since finishing second in the 2022 Commonwealth Cup.

He has won on his only start at this track, the drying conditions are a big plus, and Hugh Palmer is okay when using first-time blinkers.

And that headgear leads me to believe they may go forward on the horse once again, as they did on him earlier on in his career.

I couldn’t see any guaranteed pace in here, so hopefully trainer and jockey are alive to the possibility of going from the front once again, even if he is drawn one and I am not a fan of horses being drawn on the extremes.

I am happy to throw a small-stakes dart each-way at 14s (the firm offering this price are four places, so good luck in snaffling that attractive combo), and the general 12s is obviously fine, too.

1.50pm Curragh – 25/1 The Highway Rat one for the grandads

I am not going to be exhaustive on the four ITV races at the Curragh card. Don’t get me wrong, there is excellent racing but I personally don’t see it as premier punting material.

I had to have a lie down when seeing Summerghand was in here, and available at 20s in places, but, no, I am not getting involved in this 26-runner 6f handicap.

I am not familiar with a lot of the horses, for starters.

However, as I must have watched the kids’ TV programme, The Highway Rat, a hundred times with my grandson, I probably should have a score on the horse of that name at 25s.

Any proceeds go to Rome.

2.25pm Curragh – Joseph has the pace map covered

Forget Aidan O’Brien and team tactics, it is the turn of his son Joseph in here to carve it up.

He runs four (Rogue Millenium was a non-runner on Saturday but presumably goes here instead) and three of them are usual forward-goers, so this could be very interesting.

I am not going to waffle on, as I don’t have a betting opinion.

3.00pm Curragh – Bedtime Story not a tempting bet at evens

Aidan has three of the five in the Moyglare, and his Bedtime Story is the evens favourite in here.

I am not sure I would be rushing to back her at that price after she gave her [1/16] backers a heart attack before getting up late to pip stablemate Exactly (who runs here) last time.

Maybe that stunning Ascot win took more out of her than it seemed at the time, as her two efforts since have not been a patch on that performance.

3.35pm Curragh – Layers could get a result here

An 18-runner Flying Five but the market is dominated by [7/4] Bradsell and [3/1] Believing, with 12s bar those two, and surely the bookmakers must fancy their chances of getting a result here.

Yes, that pair are the form picks and come here in fine fettle, but it is not as if they present a scary standard to aim at, and the way I will be playing this on the day is to lay the pair and have the field running for me.

I’ll leave it there.

There are a couple of Group 1 races at the Curragh after ITV have gone off air, in which Aidan once again has the strong favourites, with Henri Matisse [11/10] in the National Stakes at 4.10pm and Kyprios a surprisingly big [5/6] in one spot for the Irish St Leger.

Good luck.

BET

Flaming Rib at [14/1] each way in 4.15pm at Doncaster (generally available at 12s, including with AKBets).

GOING AND WEATHER (updated 9am)

DONCASTER

Going: Round course: Good

Going stick: 6.9 at 7.45am on Sunday

Weather:  Dry and chilly, may be 2-3mm of rain from midday onwards

CURRAGH

Going: Straight: Good; Round: Good, good to firm in places

Weather: 1.5mm rain overnight; light drizzle at moment, set to clear mid-morning

Watering: “selective watering of round course” (no amounts given) earlier in week

BALLOTED OUT (in UK; money back for ante-post punters)

3.45pm Doncaster: Liberated Lad (reserves are King Of York and Serious Look, so likely to follow suit)

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

William Haggas cheekpieces 24-184 (since 2016)

Alice Haynes visor 0-16 (2021)

Hugo Palmer blinkers 11-102 (2011)

Amy Murphy visor 1-33 (2016)

Patrick Foley visor 0-0

Ger Lyons blinkers 35-213 (2009)

Noel Meade cheekpieces 12-85 (2016)

Kevin Ryan cheekpieces 16-161 (2016)

Aidan O’Brien visor 12-55 (2009)

Aidan O’Brien cheekpieces 7-81 (2016)

Joseph O’Brien blinkers 10-121 (2016)

M C Grassick blinkers 2-25 (2014)

Daniel James Murphy blinkers 0-6 (2023)

Gerard Keane blinkers 1-21 (2009)

PACE MAPS (ITV races):

2.05pm Doncaster:   Tees Spirit, Venture Capital, Blind Beggar, Ready Freddie Go

2.40pm Doncaster:   Germanic, Paborus, Almarada Prince (prominent)

3.15pm Doncaster:   Fair Angelica

3.45pm Doncaster (Legends race):  Terries Royale (prom), English Spirit, Guiteau, Strongbowe?, Crown’s Lady (prom), Finn Ironside, Slaney Swagger

4.15pm Doncaster:   King’s Lynn?, Knebworth (prom), Flaming Rib?

1.50pm Curragh:   Over The Blues, Apricot Ice, Arnhem, Sturlasson, Gunzburg?, Pinar Del Rio

2.25pm Curragh:   American Sonja, Goldana, Lumiere Rock, Wingspan?

3.00pm Curragh:   Exactly, Lake Victoria, Red Letter

3.35pm Curragh: Desperate Hero, Moss Tucker?, Washington Heights, Bucanero Fuerte, Givemethebeatboys, Matilda Picotte, Beautiful Diamond, She’s Quality

TRAINERFORM (ITV races – not including Saturday’s results):

Excellent: Michael Herrington, Jack Davison, David O’Meara, Ralph Beckett

Good: Andrew Balding, William Haggas, Aidan O’Brien, Hugo Palmer, Mick Appleby (very good), Bryan Smart, Brian Ellison, Ollie Pears (very good), Tom Clover. Ed Bethell, Marcus Tregoning, Dominic French Davis, Ben Brookhouse, Archie Watson, J Stack, P Foley, Adrian McGuinness, Paddy Twomey, Adrian Murray, Richard Hughes (three winners on Saturday)

Fair:  Karl Burke (two winners on Saturday), Ian Williams, Jamie Osborne, Declan Carroll (winner on Saturday), Tim Easterby, Richard Hannon, Craig Lidster (needs winners, though), Marco Botti, Charles Hills (needs winners still), Adrian Nicholls, Michael Bell (no winners though), Hughie Morrison (winner on Friday), Nigel Tinkler (not many winners), Stuart Williams, Harry Charlton, Simon and Ed Crisford (winners on Friday and Saturday), Jack Channon (good winners on Saturday), Roger Varian, Alice Haynes, Heather Main, Jessica Macey, Ger Lyons, Sheila Lavery (bordering on good), Kate McGiven (not many runners), Eddie Lynam (one runner), John Feane (10-1 winner on Saturday), E J O’Neill (recent winner), Joseph O’Brien, Noel Meade (probably more moderate), Johnny Murtagh, Ollie Sangster, Clive Cox (16-1 winner on Saturday), Jessie Harrington, Charlie Fellowes (low strike rate though), David Loughnane (two winners in recent days)

Moderate: Kevin Ryan (though an 18-1 winner on Thursday lifted the gloom), Richard Fahey (in strike rate terms, but a few running well obviously given the number of runners) , Kevin Philippart De Foy, Ed Walker, Scott Dixon (fair few running okay but needs winners), Thomas Faulkner (though only five recent runners), George Boughey, Geoffrey Harker, A Oliver, Ross O’Sullivan (12-1 winner on Saturday, though), M G Quinn (three runners), Kieran Cotter (couple have run okay), Gavin Cromwell (12-1 winner on Friday, though) Daniel McLoughlin (one runner at 16-1), Joe Conlon (one runner at 150-1), John Kinsella (few runners), Dermot Weld, Charles O’Brien, Ken Condon (few runners, and one went okay)