TONY CALVIN: 12/1 chance at Newmarket the shining light on a grey day

Newbury’s Group 2 7f Hungerford Stakes has cut up from 13 to seven at the overnight stage, and fortunately our [33/1] each-way ante-post selection Jumby is one of those confirmed.

I had a little bit of a sulk-up at one stage on Thursday morning, as trainer Eve Johnson Houghton entered her other horses on the card well in advance of Jumby (her two runners in the 7f handicap at 3pm) so I thought he was going to be a no-show.

But maybe she was just waiting on the availability of William Buick, who was jocked up on Charlie Appleby’s Noble Dynasty at the time. Buick was on board when Jumby won this race in 2022 and knows him very well (he is three from seven on him, as well as some excellent efforts in defeat such as a third in a Wokingham off 105).

The Godolphin runner wasn’t confirmed (so we have Buick on our side), and the short-priced Poet Master and Lake Forest also came out – in fact, that duo were vying for favouritism in some early lists – along with Make Me King, Orne and Jabaara.

So this market has taken a massive shift since Monday. Not that it was too difficult to predict with the 500k Group 2 City Of York Stakes lurking in the wings next week, along with Goodwood.

Their gain is definitely Newbury’s loss.

Oh, and a quick word on Newbury before we start. They have not told punters how much they have watered, which is poor -and their last going stick reading is from 6am on Wednesday, as this piece goes live – especially as they got 5mm of rain (more than forecast) after irrigating on Wednesday.

The BHA should insist on all tracks being open and transparent on this issue. Accuracy and information is important.

3.35pm Newbury – nice ante-post position on Jumby

We are now one shy for each way 1,2,3 betting then – thankfully the ante-post bet gives us three places, and we will probably need them to get a return, in truth – and it also happens to be a very tricky race to call, in terms of there isn’t much between the seven (at their best, anyway) and there is no guaranteed pace in here.

Folgaria made all once in Italy (though has been held up since) but I suspect Popmaster could lead, for all he is hardly a point-and-shoot merchant.

I don’t have much of an issue with the reformed market, and I won’t be playing afresh in the race, but I’ll simply re-iterate what I said about Jumby in Tuesday’s ante-post column.

In fact, in honour of the inventor of cut and paste, Larry Tesler, who died earlier in the week, here goes.

“I appreciate he was beaten off 100 in handicap company at Newmarket last weekend but you can mark up that run a good deal because of his track position – that July course can be one strange place, even if he does have a lot of excellent form there – and it was certainly a much better effort than some pretty woeful efforts previously this season.

“He only beat three home first time up in handicap company at Ascot before finishing last in the John Of Gaunt and, perhaps predictably enough, again beat nada home in Group 1 company at Royal Ascot.

“So perhaps whatever ailed him earlier in the campaign has now been rectified (if indeed anything was troubling him) and he can kick on significantly from that weekend performance. He will need to.

“This is a horse who was rated 111 last summer, and 7f on quick ground are his optimum conditions. And he just happened to win this race pretty easily in 2022, after which he was rated a career-high 112.

“His record after a quick turnaround is mixed.

“He finished last of nine at York a week after winning this race in 2022 but, then again, he won (admittedly it was only a three-runner race) within a 10-day turnaround in 2021.”

Jumby is now a general [16/1] poke, two places – 20s is available in one spot – so those that took the ante-post advice are at least sitting on a half-decent position.

I probably fear English Oak most of the opposition, but the market has now caught up with him at [11/4] – he was 8s in four places on Monday – and you can make a fair case for all seven at their prices.

1.50pm Newbury – Go could prove to be the young Daddy

Vauban was as short as [5/4] when the betting opened on Monday but presumably he is being kept back for the Lonsdale at York next week, while the ground presumably put paid to last year’s winner Arrest’s participation (though he too is in the Lonsdale).

We are down to a field of five then for this 90k pot, and I wonder if they will run Sumo Sam if the ground quickens up from the current good, good to firm in places, as her record suggests she is much better with plenty of dig.

This is why it would be good to know how much Newbury watered on Wednesday, though of course Friday’s times will give us a better picture.

Sumo Sam is one of three potential forward-goers in here along with Al Qareem and Roberto Escobarr , so this could be a good set-up for the closer Al Aasy, though he has a 3lb penalty for his Goodwood win earlier in the month and his price is no bargain (odds-on across the board) for a horse who can be tricky.

I have a feeling that Go Daddy could go well.

He was actually 33s in a place on Monday but, if all five go, he could be a fair each way bet at 7s or so , even if his connections feel he is better on soft and he is unproven over the trip.

He is improving and gets 12lb from Al Aasy (helped by a 9lb age allowance as the only 3yo in the field), so I thought the 7s in two places (a general 6s, though) was fair without the need to tip or bet.

2.25pm Newbury – Michaela’s Boy fairly handicapped on stable debut

Four of the seven races on ITV are either 5f or 6f handicaps and, aside the two small-field Group 2 heats, the other contest is a 7f handicap, so I fear they are taking the rise out of punters somewhat.

Real Russian Roulette punting (i.e. you are very likely to do your brains betting in these types of races), especially on watered tracks.

And, with York around the corner, I am certainly not going to tip or bet for the sake of it. And I am definitely not going to take up too much of your time if I don’t fancy anything.

Any of the 10 could win this – the first firm up made The Big Board a [9/4] chance, which looked ridiculously short, and one of the next outfits up went a more realistic 4s, with [10/3] now the best on offer – though I suppose Michaela’s Boy is the most interesting, as the 4yo has been dropped 12lb for his last five starts (quite a quick drop for a relative youngster) and he has had wind and gelding ops since joining Robert Cowell in May.

But this race looks a guess-up to me, and Michaela’s Boy hasn’t been missed in the early markets, either. His price ranges from 6s to [15/2] in a spot, and this is a horse who has beaten only one of his 24 rivals in 2024, even if he has come down a generous 7lb for those two performances.

3.00pm Newbury – Two outsiders may not be so rank

Given I think sprint handicaps are something of a lottery (apologies for the early description, which brought back memories of The Deer Hunter), the 7f handicap at 3pm held out the best hope of a bet for me, On paper, at least.

The problem here is that I quite fancied the three at the top of the market – Waleefy, Starlore and Zabriskie Point – and a few more besides, so those priced in single figures just didn’t do it for me.

If anything, I gravitated to the bottom end of the market, with Accidental Agent and Documenting priced up at [25/1] and [50/1] respectively, as well as being the old boys at 10 and 11yo.

The former is obviously a pale shadow of his Group 1-winning best but he is on a mark of 92 now (with a 5lb claimer up) and he has a good record first time up – that 25s was a tempter, and I’ll probably end up chucking a score his way – while Documenting won this two years ago,

I’ll keep my powder dry here too from a tipping point of view though, as this is a late start for Accidental Agent and he may have had a setback earlier in the season.

2.05pm Newmarket – 12/1 Grenham worth a tentative dart

I have eight of the nine in the 6f Grey Horse Handicap as at least potential prominent racers, and the other, Eminency, ran poorly at Windsor on Thursday evening, so will he turn out again?

Again, it looked a bit of a mess from a betting point of view, and I was not going to mug you off and say I had a betting opinion.

I didn’t – until I clocked the claims of Grenham Bay. I didn’t expect the opening 16s in two places to last, and neither did the 14s in a few spots, but I am happy with any double-figure prices, as I thought he shaped with a fair bit of promise at Windsor last time off a mid-season break.

He was very weak in the market there and raced too keenly, but he ran okay, paying for the freshness close home, and they put the cheekpieces back on him here.

He had worn them for his previous five starts in 2024, and a reproduction of his Kempton win in them in March, or his placed all-weather efforts either side of that victory, puts him right in the mix here. And his best effort came on turf last season, so he isn’t just a sand monkey, and that Salisbury win came off a 4lb higher mark than this.

Look, it’s a minimum-stakes win-only bet, but it’ll do for me on a pretty unappealing weekend of racing.

The break before Windsor, and the headgear switch, looks like it was a tee-up job for this.

He is drawn nine of nine, and the stalls are in the centre, so hopefully he can get on the far rail and that is the place to be, as it was in this race last season.

As I said, all the 16s and 14s was taken on Thursday, but he is [12/1] in 13 places on the Oddschecker grid, including with AKBets, and that is big enough to tempt me in.  There could be a Rule 4 if Eminency comes out.

Any 10s or bigger is okay, though he isn’t an obvious shortener with sexier types like Fine Interview in here (though not many would have heard of his jockey, not that it stopped people punting on the Shergar Cup last weekend) and his main market rival First Folio, from the in-form Julie Camacho stable (see trainer-form below).

2.45pm Ripon – 50/1 Sir Maxi no forlorn hope

ITV have inflicted another two large-field sprint handicaps on us at Ripon. What a time to be alive.

You basically will have to land a treble to back the winner here.

The field will definitely split into at least two groups and then you have to get the winner of the first pack home.

Hang on, is that a double?

Either way, I am not coming out to tip in this lowly 0-80, though I guess the fact that there isn’t much pace in here could present an opportunity.

If there is, I couldn’t see it though, but Sir Maxi was put in as the outsider of the field at 50s on Thursday, and the switch from Richard Fahey to Sam England may not be a bad thing for a jaded low-level handicapper who cost new connections only £6,000 last month.

England is a decent operator at this level, and Ripon is her winning-most course on the level.

Sir Maxi has dropped to a mark of 67 and the last time he raced off that level he beat a horse of England’s, Trilby, a recent Haydock scorer who has won three times since that defeat, at Pontefract last season.

I won’t put him as a bet at 50s, as he has massive blow-out potential – this is a horse who finished last of eight in a 0-70 the last time we saw him in early July and Fahey got rid a week later – but I have backed him to very small stakes.  Just in case.

I actually took a trip to a betting shop to have a tenner each way on him, if you want to know.

Well, after I dropped some dry cleaning off, anyway. For the sake of completeness, I also relived my youth and bought a blue Slush Puppie afterwards for the walk home, too.

So feel free to follow me in for a tenner win and place at 50s, should you so wish, though it is speculative with a capital “S”.

There is a firm out there offering that price and six places – AK are one of  12 firms going 50s – but it would hardly be on for me to cherry-pick in one place and tip accordingly.

3.20pm Ripon – Summerghand maybe but not at 13/2, thanks

The case for Summerghand in the Great St Wilfrid is obvious, as his price underlines, but it always is. And he is on a losing run of 18 now.

I fell for him in the Stewards’ Cup last time and, in his defence, he did get stopped twice and was beaten under 6 lengths, so a 2lb drop is very fair.

If he gets a fair run at this from what could be a decent draw in trap 18 (as I always say “if” is the most expensive word in betting) he clearly has a huge chance off 89. He has been placed in this race three times, off much higher marks than this, including when beaten just a head off 97 last season.

AKBets are one of five going best price at [13/2], but I can’t be playing at that price in 19-runner sprint handicaps.

I make no apologies for keeping it tight this weekend, but hopefully I have given you some helpful pointers away from the selections.

And, as I always say, sometimes you have to make your own minds up.

Good luck.

BET

Grenham Bay at [12/1] win-only in 2.05pm at Newmarket. Available in 13 places, including with AKBets.

ANTE-POST BET

Jumby at [33/1] each way in 3.35pm at Newbury on Saturday.

GOING/WEATHER

NEWBURY (two-day meeting starts on Friday)

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

WEATHER:  Largely dry and sunny, 21 and 22 degrees, Friday and Saturday

WATERING: Watered 7^th, 8^th, 9^th and 14^th – no amounts given and no going stick reading since Wednesday – with 5mm of rain on Wednesday afternoon. Lost 22mm in evaporation in last week.

NEWMARKET (two-day meeting starts on Friday)

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

WEATHER:  0.5mm of rain on Thursday night. Dry and sunny, 22 and 23 degrees, Friday and Saturday

WATERING: 15mm applied on Monday; 12mm on Wednesday

RIPON

GOING: Good

WEATHER: Dry and mild temperatures

WATERING: 3mm on Sunday; 4mm Wednesday

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

None (Eminency ran in a first-time visor at Windsor on Thursday evening)

BALLOTED OUT/SUPPLEMENTED

None

PACE MAPS

1.50pm Newbury:  Al Qareem, Roberto Escobarr, Sumo Sam

2.25pm Newbury: Myconian, McLoven, Michaela’s Boy, Isle Of Lismore (prominent), Faustus

3.00pm Newbury: Lethal Levi, Documenting (prom), Zabriskie Point?

3.35pm Newbury: No obvious front-runner, but Folgaria has made it and Popmaster can race prominently

2.05pm Newmarket: First Folio (prom), Mister Bluebird, Strike (prom), Archduke Ferdinand (prom), Mart (prom), Fine Interview, Grenham Bay (prom)

2.45pm Ripon: Thornaby Pearl?, Supreme King?, Catherine Chroi (prom), Danzan (prom)

3.20pm Ripon:  Manila Scouse, Ramazan (prom), My Wagyu (prom), Radio Goo Goo, Emperor Spirit, Almarada Prince (prom), The Turpinator (prom), Aramram (prom), Kitai?

TRAINERFORM (does not include Friday’s results)

Excellent: Julie Camacho, William Haggas, Jack Channon

Good: Rod Millman, John Butler, Miss Katy Brown (one runner and very quiet 2024 season), Marcus Tregoning, Hamad Al Jehani, Ben Haslam, Paul Midgley, Sir Michael Stoute, Sam England (very few runners), Paul and Oliver Cole, Ed Walker

Fair: Robert Cowell, Amy Murphy, Simon Dow, George Boughey, Kevin Frost, Stuart Williams, Seb Spencer, Dylan Cunha (could do with a winner and borderline moderate), Richard Hannon, David Evans, Mark Walford, Grant Tuer, Adrian Keatley, Richard Fahey, Eve Johnson Houghton, David O’Meara, James Owen, Jonathan Portman (no winners, though), Andrew Balding, Adrian Nicholls, Karl Burke (borderline good strike rate-wise), Nigel Tinkler, Ron Harris (very few runners), Kevin Ryan, Ben Brookhouse (very few runners), Iain Jardine, Tim Easterby, John and Sean Quinn. Mick Appleby, Craig Lidster (borderline moderate), Bryan Smart, James Tate, Ian Williams (three winners on Thursday)

Moderate: Harry Charlton, Patrick Morris, Fionn McSharry (few runners and all outsiders), William Muir and Chris Grassick, Marco Botti (though has had a recent winner), Heather Main (few runners but 33-1 chance ran okay), Rachel Cook and John Bridger (though some have run well enough), Charles Hills