By Tony Calvin - 3 January 2025
Unfortunately, both Sandown and Wincanton have failed their early morning inspections.
Cork are inspecting at 8am and the other afternoon meeting, Southwell, isn’t scheduled to start until 2.47pm.
ITV could be looking at a blank day.
A mid-term Cheltenham Festival preview, anyone?
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It sounds as if Sandown and Wincanton are reasonably confident of beating the Friday night freeze (-3 and -2 expected), but the forecast only needs to be a couple of spots out to be very troublesome.
Sandown today reported “a crust of frost first thing, but expected to be raceable today. Conditions monitored through Friday morning.” (there is now an inspection at 7.30am on Saturday morning)
Likewise, Wincanton reported: “Keen frost, with tops of divot mix frozen. Expected to become raceable with Friday forecast. Conditions to be monitored and any inspection details to follow.” (there is now an 8am inspection on Saturday morning).
We have seven races on the box on Saturday.
It is soft at Sandown after 12mm of rain on Wednesday (good to soft in places on the chase course) and, living nearby, I can tell you that they got off very lightly with that amount.
It was torrential at times – especially when I was walking to the pub (my socks and strides were so drenched a trip to the charity shop nearby was a live runner at one point) – so the heavy-ground lovers on the card probably got unlucky.
One horse stands out at the weights in this race on his best form, but unfortunately he is just [7/2 now], and as short as [3/1], having opened up 6s in a place on Thursday morning.
I’d have no particular beef with the price, were it not for the fact that he has been beaten an aggregate of 133 lengths on his last four starts.
I know thinking out of the box is to be applauded when betting but…..
To be fair, he was only beaten 18 of those 133 lengths at Cheltenham last time, a run that prompted another 2lb drop in the weights (7lb in total for those four underwhelming outings).
Oh, I should mention the horse’s name is Etalon, trained by Dan Skelton.
Now, that Cheltenham run last time was notable for the fact that he was held up in last, when he is normally a forward-goer, and he seemed to finish his race off to a degree (he was out of the shot before the final clips of the replay, so it was hard to tell and I personally wouldn’t go overboard about the promise shown).
Either way, that was clearly a confidence-booster/tee-up job, and if today is D-day, then he is handicapped to win or go very close, just 4lb higher than when winning over a sub-2m on soft here last year.
His best form has come over 2m, so perhaps they may want to get another bit of weight off before pulling the trigger, but he did finish fourth in an EBF Final over 2m4f here in 2023 and this is a not-to-be-sniffed-at 20k to the winner.
I can easily see him winning but I want more bang for my buck than the current prices on offer.
A lot more.
Sometimes we can read more into these Skelton handicappers than is actually there, for all he is a Dick Dastardly-good trainer.
The progressive Roccovango, and recent Leicester winner Hunter Legend vie for the favouritism, despite being 1lb wrong, and they are others with obvious claims in this tricky eight-runner 0-145 2m4f handicap chase.
Harry Derham is our Saturday “Trainer In Focus” and his Hubrisko is a 16s chance for him here (available in 11 places).
The horse went off a 66s poke on his first run for the yard over hurdles at Newbury in late November, predictably not figuring, but he was dropped 2lb for it in both codes, and he now looks a fairly handicapped animal on his Killiarney win on soft ground (Timeform agreed with that assessment) for Willie Mullins last August.
He mixed it with some fair animals in Ireland, and I have seen worse 16s pokes, although there is plenty of guesswork going on here, too. Maybe this is a means to an end to a target in the spring, too.
He never got into it at Newbury but all his best form in Ireland all came with forcing tactics, so maybe you will see him up the front this time – along with a few others though, as you can see from the pace map below, possibly Etalon among them.
And the chase course will ride a lot better than the hurdles’ track, which will probably suit him.
By the way, the horse didn’t appear in Derham’s Racing Post stable tour on October 30, which is always a good sign in my book….
Eight runners, so watch out for nons, obviously.
It is also soft ground at Wincanton, with good to soft in places.
The original 2.05pm only attracted four runners (it is now the 1.33pm), so Wincanton and ITV have presumably drafted in an 11-runner Class 5 0-105 handicap hurdle – worth just 7k in total, with £3,597 to the winner – in its’ place (the races had the same sponsor, so the decision was easy, if indeed that was the decision).
Undoubtedly the right move, but I fully take on board the observation that this race is absolute gash – I am assuming it is on the ITV schedule now anyway, as they haven’t updated their live schedule website – and little wonder that only two firms had priced it up by the time I started looking at it for the first time at 2.30pm on Thursday afternoon.
To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d be looking at it on a second occasion.
St Lukes Chelsea was the early 5s favourite, and that has been clipped into [9/2] in two places.
He hails from the in-form Robert Walford yard and the level of his Fontwell second to Vorderman last time – the winner is apparently nicknamed Trigger’s Broom in the stable (I made that up obviously for a cheap laugh) – gives him a fair chance off a mark of just 98.
He was a 60s horse at his peak with Ralph Beckett on the Flat, and he comes here after just three hurdle runs.
The only 4yo in here, he gets a handsome 13lb from the older horses in this ugly little race, and that could prove crucial.
If you wanted a solid each-way alternative (it’s all relative), I thought John Betjeman was a fair 9s poke.
He has come down 8lb for four starts this season, and he probably ran his best race of the campaign yet here last time.
In fact, that brought his course form figures to 22225385, which is half-decent in this grade, and there is a possibility that the lead is his here if Fergus Gillard wants it.
Whether he stays there, who knows?
A pretty low-level Listed mares’ hurdle – take out the form horse Della Casa Lunga and the highest-rated in this would be just 129, so there is easy black type on offer – and just six runners to boot (until relatively late on there were only four confirmed for this).
With Della Casa Lunga having upwards of 9lb in hand of these, this race could simply revolve around how she has come out of her win at Kempton on December 27.
She is a straightforward ride from the front (two pace rivals here – see below) and I thought the early opening quotes of [9/4], available in eight places on Thursday but now only three, about her were very fair, and not a price I would be willing to lay.
She has the best form and time credentials, as well as being at home in the ground.
Granted, it could be a hard watch for her backers after the last as this will be attritional stuff on soft ground up that hill on the hurdles track.
And therein lies the other potential negative outside of the quick turnaround.
She has never raced on this track, and it can be an acquired taste.
Good Look Charm does have that course form, having won here last time – and finished a good fourth in a valuable handicap here last February – and she was arguably the overpriced one at 14s and 12s on Thursday, for all she has 18lb to find with the jolly and is the lowest-rated in here.
It’s a conditions’ play, more than a form one, but I can see it.
So could someone else and she is now tops at 11s.
The stable could be in better form, mind you, and I suppose Aston Martini, from a Henderson yard in great nick, is the safer option at 4s for those looking to oppose the fav.
Aston Martini is 5s in a place and that is probably too big, given she will appreciate the trip and she is a very credible threat to the favourite on her Lingfield defeat of Ooh Betty last season.
One could argue this seven-runner veterans’ 2m4f handicap chase makes the proceeding 0-105 handicap hurdle look an attractive betting medium.
That said, four firms are betting to three places here and also offering Longshanks – he was the nasty bastard of an English king in Braveheart – at 16s, and that may not be bad business at all if you have a relevant account.
Assuming people do is rather fanciful in this day and age, but we are where we are.
The horse has the services of regular pilot, 7lb claimer Callum Pritchard, whose stats suggests he is more than okay, and he has been switched back to Kayley Woollacott again (apparently Josh Newman and Woollacott are partners, and the Newman point yard is in good form at the moment) after running in a point in November.
He is a course winner over hurdles and a mark of 110 looks fair enough, even though he comes with obvious question marks attached (for example, he was beaten at [4/7] in that point in November, and I have no idea of the merit of the run – but apparently it wouldn’t put you off, especially after I have just seen the in-running comments…..).
He is 18s in a place, and Woollacott’s small string are going okay (see below). And this is a very winnable race.
Thankfully, the numbers held up pretty well for this 100k veterans’ final, as there were only 13 entries at the five-day stage, and we are down to nine.
We are even running out of oldies in the UK now…
The 13yo Sam Brown won this race last season when it was staged at Warwick and he is certainly handicapped to feature again here but it is the rejuvenated Copperhead (up 19lb this season) who heads the betting at [10/3].
I thought this wouldn’t be an overly-attractive betting race, if truth be told, but I hope I was wrong now I have decided to get involved.
Fellow teenager and 20s poke Chambard didn’t run well at Cheltenham on his comeback but it is not hard to see him putting that run behind in shallower bathing waters here, but if there is a bet to be had it is surely Fortescue at 9s (available in two places).
The [17/2] with AKBets is obviously fine, too.
He was a general 10s on Thursday but that was chipped away.
He ran okay behind Copperhead at Aintree in October (he actually hit 1.62 in running, and is 16lb better off for that 14-length beating here) before running poorly in the Berkshire National – that’s a new Nash on me – over an extended 3m5f at Ascot last time, after which he was given a break after that grueller.
He has also come down 5lb for those runs and he is no stranger to hitting form after below-par efforts.
Indeed, when he won here in 2021 connections cited the stable form as one factor in the improvement.
And they could be doing that here too maybe, as Henry Daly was 17 from 70 in November and December, and Strackan got him off to a winning start for 2025 on New Year’s Day.
You would have thought this 100k pot would have long been the target for his 11yo (as with most of the others admittedly), who is now a colossal 15lb lower than when fourth in the 2022 Becher.
Yes, I know that is a while ago, but it is not as if he has run like a drain since.
Indeed, he has finished runner-up four times in the past year or so – and that Aintree run in October is better than it looked, too, as the in-running betting suggests – and this is his lowest mark since January 2021.
Furthermore all his six career wins have come in fields of nine or less.
Win-only or each way is fine.
He is available each way, four places, at 9s – but that is with just one firm (see Oddschecker but you can probably guess who).
Take that if you can, clearly, but the standard each way terms are acceptable too if you are playing that way.
Trainer in Focus Derham runs two in here, and one of those is stable-switcher Ninth Loch, having his first start for him after winning for the George/Zetterholm stable at Auteuil in November.
Given the yard’s excellent record with recruits from other yards (at a low level like this), I was surprised one firm make him a stand-out 9s (they actually opened up at 11s, then went 10s to the current 9s), on Thursday afternoon, while other firms ranged from 5s to 7s.
Clearly, too big.
The horse has been bought by the Jersey Racing Friends, which I imagine is why Victoria Malzard (Jersey-based , I believe) rides.
And she has a great record in the UK (9 from 44 in the last five seasons, and one from two in this). She is also 3 from 11 for Derham.
Stablemate Nordic Tiger is much preferred in the betting, as low as 4s, but I don’t think this is a first and second-string affair on jockey bookings, given that Jersey angle.
Anyway, am I having a bet in this?
Na.
I can see the case for Derham’s pair, particularly Ninth Loch, and Latin Verse at 16s, but you have to fear the market leaders, in particular the hat-trick seeking Kado De Joie.
That is why he is [5/2], though. And even that may not last long.
It is such a shame for such as a top-class and well-run track as Sandown to have a hurdles’ course that is such a hard watch late on, even when the ground is not particularly deep.
I don’t know why it is, as it is hardly the only course with a stiff uphill finish – though, horses can and do regularly stop here after cruising before the hill even comes into the equation – but Sandown is definitely the most extreme one for me, especially after Towcester closed its doors.
If you have an active exchange account, never be afraid to stick in a short-priced lay on your pre-race fancy here.
Proven course form on the hurdles track is a big positive then in this 2m handicap hurdle, and a few of these have that in the tank, notably Hardy Du Seuil, who won a very good renewal of this in 2023 (beating Iceo and Djelo, a race in which the third was running off 129) and he is fairly priced at 7s here in several places (15/2 in one spot).
I’d say Honky Tonk Highway and Spirits Bay have also put up notably good efforts here too, but the three that haven’t raced at the track before are the progressive Navajo Indy, the very dangerous Oh My Johnny and Joyeux Machin (the first two are in-form and have big chances if ignoring that angle, so make of it what you will).
To be honest, I haven’t had a bet in this yet since the final field was known – I’m off the booze for the foreseeable, perhaps well into and beyond February, so no loose, interest bets…. – but I can definitely see the case for Spirits Bay at 12s.
He finished a fair second here in a maiden hurdle last season before winning a couple of deep-ground contests at Exeter, and he also shaped well when fifth to the brilliantly-ridden Mirabad on his return at Cheltenham, his move on the straight to chase the winner faltering after the last on his first run for a while.
The handicapper thought so too, as he refused to drop him even 1lb after getting beaten 7 ½ lengths.
Harsh maybe, but I can see why. And he may have actually got away with staying on the same mark.
The assessor actually raised the 5 1/2–length runner-up 3lb, as they did the third, who was ½ length further back (the fourth was 3lb well-in, to be fair).
This is only his seventh start over hurdles, and his Exeter win off an 8lb lower mark than this last March was worked out well enough, with the runner-up winning twice since. There is surely more improvement in him and his staying pedigree could come in handy here, for all he disappointed when tried over 2m3f.
He’d be my choice at the 12s available in three places, and I have decided I am going to throw a few quid at him, win-only.
I wouldn’t put you off backing him each way, either.
Up to you.
Fortescue at [9/1] in 3.00pm at Sandown (9s each way, four places with one firm is the bet if accessible).
Spirits Bay at [12/1] in 3.35pm at Sandown (each way option with standard terms is an angle too)
Betting suggestions available on all races in copy, so please read, thank you.
Going – Chase: Soft, good to soft in places; Hurdle: Soft
Going stick reading – Chase: 5.1; Hurdle: 4.7 (7.15am Thursday)
Weather: Dry, freezing overnight
Friday afternoon course update: “12mm rain Wednesday. Temperature dropped to -2.3 overnight into Friday. Daytime high of +6 at 2pm today. Friday night -1 possible from late evening. 3/4 degrees maximum on Saturday. Fog/freezing fog remains a possibility for early Saturday.”
Any rail movements to follow.
Going: Soft, good to soft in places
Going stick reading: 5.0 (8am Thursday)
Weather: Dry, freezing overnight
Friday afternoon course update: “14mm of rainfall on Wednesday. Thursday overnight low of -6C. Friday daytime high of +4C. Forecast dry & sunny Friday, daytime high of 4C. Overnight low of -3C. Overcast Saturday, showers now looking likely after racing. Max temps 3C.”
Rails: Fences moved out into central positions. All bends out between 6-8 yads.
1.50pm Sandown: Hunter Legend (1lb)
3pm Sandown: Smarty Wild (2lb)
Nicky Henderson hood 21-74 since 2013 – Khrisma, 12.05pm Sandown
Emma Lavelle visor 7-41 since 2009 – Red Rookie, 2.40pm Wincanton
Gary and Josh Moore cheekpieces 0-15 since 2024 – Authentic Legacy, 3.15pm Wincanton
Gary Moore 7-87 since 2016
Tom Gretton cheekpieces 0-11 since 2017 – Jukebox D’Eddy, 3.50pm Wincanton
1.33pm Wincanton (not on box now but I had already done it….): In D’Or, Take Your Time
1.50pm Sandown: Etalon?, Jupiter Du Gite, Unexpected Party, Hubrisko
2.05pm Wincanton (I assume this on ITV now anyway): John Betjeman, Odin’s Quest?, Penna Rossa, St Lukes Chelsea?
2.25pm Sandown: Della Casa Lunga, Good Look Charm (prom), The Lord Maid
2.40pm Wincanton: Stormy Flight, Quel Destin, Le Ligerien (prom), The Widdow Maker, Longshanks (prom)
3.00pm Sandown: Eldorado Allen, Empire Steel?, Chambard (prom), Remastered (prom)
3.15pm Wincanton: Authentic Legacy?, Nordic Tiger, Love Of Neymore, Latin Verse?, Ninth Loch (prom)
3.35pm Sandown: Honky Tonk Highway. Jour D’Evasion, Navajo Indy?, Oh My Johnny, Disco Davis (prom)
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I noted in this section a couple of weeks ago that the excellent Harry Derham had been exceptionally quiet, and soon afterwards we found out why – Storm Bert had washed away his gallop.
He effectively had to shut up shop, and install a new one, which he did thanks to a loan from his parents.
He appears firmly back on track now though, and he should be paying Geoff and Julie back soon enough.
He ended December with a monthly record of five from 15, and he is one from three in the New Year, with the other two placed.
Expect him to kick on from here, and he has three runners in the ITV races on Saturday.
They are Hubrisko in the 1.50pm at Sandown, and Ninth Loch and Nordic Tiger in the 3.15pm at Wincanton (he also has three others on the day – each way four and five-timers, anyone?)
Ninth Loch has his first start for him, having won on his most recent start in France in November, and Derham’s record with stable-switchers in this grade is well known and hugely impressive. That horse has to be of interest off 122 on his French, and Irish, form.
Good: Harry Derham, Olly Murphy, Nicky Henderson, Hobbs and White, Henry Daly, Robert Walford, Anthony Charlton, Jamie Snowden
Fair: Dan Skelton, Tom Lacey, Joe Tizzard, Gary and Josh Moore, Evan Williams, Venetia Williams, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Clive Boultbee-Brooks, David Pipe (worrying spate of pulled ups though – five of the last six), Sandy Thomson, Harry Fry, Paul Nicholls, Christian Williams (emerging from poor spell), Emma Lavelle (having a good season , with another winner on Thursday), Kayley Woollacott (very small sample but two seconds, and a 33-1 fourth, from four recent runners), Warren Greatrex (no winners though), Tom Symonds, Chris Gordon, Daisy Hitchins (no winners, so arguably more moderate). Tom Ellis, Keiran Burke
Moderate: Anthony Honeyball (especially in last week or so), Robbie Llewellyn (small sample and 11-4 second on Thursday), Bernard Llewellyn (few runners and some very big prices to be fair), Jeremy Scott (if arguably more fair given placed horses, though very quiet season as a whole, still)
Don’t know: Mark Gillard, Sue Gardner
This weeks Racing Room podcast features: Intro Chat & Weekend Racing Review (0-8mins) Rory Campbell’s Betting Syndicate: Take 3…
WITH ITV Racing showing 21 races from Friday to Sunday inclusive, it promises to be…
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