By Tony Calvin - 13 December 2024
Friday’s Cheltenham meeting is/was much better than Saturday’s offering – certainly that was true of the first three non-ITV races on each card – and I can’t help but feel this is a pretty underwhelming renewal of the December Gold Cup.
Putting aside the fact that 11 runners for a 125k pot is poor – the two Irish entries didn’t confirm at the overnight stage – this has all the vibes of a sprint handicap on the Flat to me.
Yes, that is exactly the analogy I was looking for.
Namely, they all take turns in beating each other.
This race largely features the Cheltenham handicappers that are regulars in these 2m4f/2m5f chases either side of Christmas, so you can make the same case for all the familiar faces as they go up and down the handicap ladder.
There are some exceptions to the usual formlines and that maybe includes Grandeur D’Ame, even if he was fourth in this race last year and unseated in the race won here by Ga Law in January,
So he is hardly a newbie (actually the sexy Madara, who won the 2m handicap on this card last season, is probably a better example)
However, Grandeur D’Ame at least brings a fresher angle to the table here after beating Ga Law at Chepstow in October (Il Ridoto in fifth – so yes, I know, not that fresh at all) and Alan King has probably played a cute move by keeping him inactive since, and therefore just 4lb higher here.
One outfit is 9s, four places, and that is clearly very fair – if you can access it.
Those tipping shouldn’t be blasé about punters getting on (and getting on to any size), and that is one reason why staking plans fall down at the first hurdle.
The problem is I can say the same about the chances of pretty much all of these, and the most attractive price going is arguably Gemirande at 10s.
Now, he too has his fair share of course and distance form, but I thought he was wildly impressive when bolting up at Ascot last time.
Of course, he could have left this race behind by winning there – he went up 8lb to a career-high mark of 136 and this is a much deeper race, and one in which he won’t get such an easy lead – but I am not so sure.
I’m not even certain I’ll have a bet in the race after this but, if I do, it’ll probably be Gemirande win-only at double-figures, as I don’t think this is an attractive each-way race, in truth.
There are just too many plausible contenders for a place. As you may have gathered.
Sprint handicaps are like that.
Oh, and it is drying ground at Cheltenham (see below).
I won’t keep you long here. I thought this was a nasty little race.
Well, a nasty big race with 15 runners in this 3m handicap chase.
Pin me up against a wall and ask me for a token selection, and I would maybe say Erne River at 18s (and a general 16s), while having my fingers crossed behind my back.
As you can see he is hardly in gold medal form, but he is now 2lb lower than when winning here last December and 5lb lower than when a fair subsequent fifth in the Great Yorkshire Chase here.
He wore first-time cheekpieces when winning that December race and maybe the initial blinkers will work the oracle here, too.
Raceform Interactive say trainer Nick Kent has only ever used blinkers once (this year), which I found hard to believe, but he only has a small string, I suppose (and Proform agree – the only one was Caitlin, who unseated at the first when its leather stirrup broke at Huntingdon in April).
The horse has Doncaster form figures of 11215, all on decent ground, which he will get here.
Sail Away has also slipped to a winnable mark again for a yard back blasting in the winners. Going into Friday’s racing, they had already hit a remarkable 111 successes for the season.
Bad luck for cricketers (the number is called Nelson, I believe), but not for Daniel.
And, after the horse fell at Newbury last time, he said: “His chances will come when the handicapper gives him a break, over two and a half to three miles on decent ground.”
Well, Sail Away is down to a mark of 136 (from a high of 145), and runs over 3m on decent ground, so the general 10s (the 12s was taken on Thursday) looks okay.
Slight preference of the two would be for Erne River at 18s.
That just shows you just how nasty this race is.
I’ve narrowed it down to two and neither has a number in their last three form figures.
Not even a zero….
The December Gold Cup actually held up pretty well numbers-wise from the five-day stage (14 to 11) but this race has been reduced to six from 12.
Again, you can easily make a case for any of the sextet at their various prices, but I couldn’t see any compelling reason to get involved.
Actually, there was one minor angle – Etalon is the [12/1] outsider and he could get an uncontested lead here.
That didn’t do him much good at Newbury last time, when he ran pretty deplorably, but something must have been amiss there.
And, even if it wasn’t, the handicapper dropped this lightly-raced 7yo 3lb in one fell swoop for it and he is one well-treated horse on the form he showed in gaining a hat-trick from December to February last season.
But he has run like a drain in two starts this season (he also underperformed at Aintree last April too, albeit in Grade 1 company) and he has no Cheltenham experience, and he would arguably want softer ground, so he is hardly one to go to war with.
Skelton had three of the first five in the betting in this on Monday and he relies on just West Balboa, who was the second favourite behind stablemate Kateira earlier in the week.
West Balboa reverts to hurdles here after two poor chase starts, and she has this race at her mercy if that experience of fences hasn’t soured her.
And therein lies the rub for potential odds-on backers. She could be vulnerable.
On the plus side, she could win this and her handicap mark will not be affected, which another concern with potential Skelton projects.
She is the clear form pick, and this hold-up performer should get a lovely tow into the race from the likes of Wyenot and Ottizini.
I flagged up this race would cut up in my ante-post piece. Eight of the 10 were double entered, and the two that weren’t are both in here.
So maybe you are sitting pretty if you backed either of Gale Maher and the outsider Fireball Frenzy each way, three places – the latter has stones to find but is at least bred to Steve Mellish this 3m trip, being related to the likes of 3m6f Cyclop – but place money is probably the height of expectation.
Wyenot will probably win the battle for the lead, so a bet on her at 9s will probably give you a good spin, at the very least.
I suspect she is still improving but she has her stamina to prove and Alice Stevens cannot claim her usual 3lb.
IMPORTANT NON-RUNNER
Outsider Fireball Frenzy is a non-runner, having not eaten up, so this race is down to four runners, and no each-way betting.
Connections seemed to be in two minds whether to run Skyjack Hijack earlier in the week, but this 55k Grade 2 pot was too good to pass up, especially with no pesky Irish challenge to deal with.
His biggest stumbling block to notching up a seventh straight success could well come from France in the shape of Jet Blue but he still rates a fair price at 2s, even if he has other unexposed improvers against him.
Whether his forcing tactics will be so effective here in a better grade, we shall see – he looks like the likely pace angle again unless Jet Blue wants an early scrap – and that is why he is just about resistible at the price.
If there is one that could come out of left field (left field may be pushing it, as he is hardly a dark one – dark ones tends to be about as dark as “forgotten horses”) then it is Aboutdamntime.
He was actually a 3 ½ length second to Clondaw General (obviously runs here too, having won a four-runner race at Worcester in October) in a point last January and he did it well when backed from 12s to 7s on the show when winning at Carlisle.
We will get a better handle on that form as the runner-up Kevin’s Pride runs in the 2.05pm at Bangor on Friday – I can’t wait unfortunately as I am off to a funeral at midday – but the well-beaten third ran out a 7 ½ length winner of a fair Kelso contest last time.
He could be dangerous stepping up to 3m here, as he is related to three winners over the trip. He opened up at 8s in a place without Skyjack Hijack, and is still a fair 7s there.
However, that is rather a niche market that bookies trade for buttons (another consideration when tipping are the depth of these secondary markets, that is to say as shallow as a politician), and I am happy to take a chance with him with the 10s in two places (the 11s was taken on Friday morning).
I think the price differential between him and Clondaw General (generally 3s) is too big, and I like his stamina-laden pedigree as he steps up to 3m.
And I also rate the trainer combo, who are 4 from 21 at Cheltenham.
This race has cut up to just eight from 17 at the five-day stage, and thankfully the final field includes Lemoncello.
As I said in an update earlier in the week, if there was a bet to be had it was him at 20s. He is now a general 14s and as short as 9s.
To be honest, he is the sort of horse who could go off at around 40.0 on the machine – these late markets are the Wild West these days, as they are so illiquid – but let’s see. My money is already on.
I’ll re-iterate what I said about him earlier in the week.
Granted, there is a lot of guesswork involved here, as a French recruit who blew out on his stable debut at Bangor last month, being pulled up in the race won by Might I.
But he was a bit of boyo there (Paul Kealy in the Weekender on Wednesday reported he tanked down to the start, too) and he pulled far too hard to do himself justice in the race itself.
I thought they may try some headgear here, but they haven’t.
He didn’t run in a tongue-tie there, which the Racing Post and Timeform both report he ran in in all his races in France (where we had form figures of 2122321), and I thought that may have had some bearing.
However, as it is left off again, what do I know?
He got dropped 2lb for the Bangor run, and it sounds like the stable rate him a bit better than a 120-rated horse.
Indeed, Venetia Williams named him as her dark horse in a Racing Post stable tour.
Admittedly before the Bangor blow-out.
Timeform actually had him winning on good to firm in France, as well as heavy, so any further drying of the ground doesn’t bother me (it is currently good to soft, soft in places on the hurdles course), but I am not the person to be worried about if you have backed him ante-post, as I did.
Venetia may get cold feet but I can’t see it drying out too much there at this time of year.
He’ll be grand, V.
I won’t press up, as you have to fear a few in here, not least the new favourite Altobelli (the first three in the ante-post betting all didn’t show up).
The opening [9/2] was swiftly taken, as was all the [7/2], and he is now best at [11/4].
Considering he went off at 5s for a Betfair Hurdle on his last start, that move was hardly surprising.
He disappointed at Newbury but he is actually already 2lb lower than an excellent third at Ascot the time before.
He is definitely the one to beat.
The numbers for this race held up better than I thought they would, but Joyeuse has still been clipped into [5/2], and as short as 2s.
Someone clearly thinks she is a very well-treated horse, and she may well improve for the step up in trip too, but I cannot get excited by her price. The vibes sound pretty positive for her, though.
I would have been interested in Endless Escape at 16s for this race ante-post had she not had another option, but now she is here then the 12s about her in three spots, with all of those firms paying four places, has to be a consideration (the mob going five places have her at just 9s).
She drew a blank in six starts last season but she saved her best til last when a 3 ½ length third of 16 to Pretending (re-opposes that mare on 11lb better terms) here on good ground over course in distance in April, and I saw enough in her comeback run over a sub-2m at Ascot to suggest she could at least hit the first four here.
The handicapper eased her 1lb for that run and, with the tongue-tie and cheekpieces refitted (they were left off at Ascot, having been on for her final four starts last season) and stepped back up in trip, I can definitely see her rewarding each way support.
Her only other start here saw her finish seventh at odds of [125/1] in the 2023 mares’ novice hurdle at the Festival, and the 12s, four places, is my idea of the best bet on a very quiet punting day.
Go well.
Aboutdamntime at [10/1] in 3.00pm at Cheltenham. Available in two places(9s is fine)
Endless Escape at [12/1] each way, four places, in 3.35pm at Cheltenham. Available in two places (10s is acceptable)
NB: Other betting angles and suggestions mentioned in copy, as usual
Going – Good to soft, good in places
Going stick reading – 6.2 (6.30am Saturday)
Weather: Dry Saturday
Going – Chase: Good to soft, good in places: Hurdles: Good to soft, soft in places
Going stick reading – Hurdle: 5.6; Chase: 5.7 (Sat 7.30am)
Weather: Spits and spots next 24 hours
James Owen cheekpieces 3-17 since 2024
James Owen hood 3-16 since 2022
Jonjo and AJ O’Neill cheekpieces 0-4 since 2024
Jonjo O’Neill cheekpieces 14 from 86 since 2016
Gary and Josh Moore cheekpieces 0-11 since 2024
Gary Moore 7-87 since 2016
Matt Crawley hood 0-6 since 2022
Olly Murphy cheekpieces 13-86 since 2017
Nick Kent blinkers 0-1 this year – Caitlin unseated at first when leather stirrup broke at Huntingdon in April
2.05pm Doncaster: Charlie Uberalles (3lb)
1.50pm Cheltenham: Stage Star, Le Patron?, Il Ridoto (prom), Gemirande, Guard Your Dreams (prom)
2.05pm Doncaster: Does He Know, Sail Away?, Ballycoose?, Docpickedme (prom), Charlie Uberalles (prom)
2.25pm Cheltenham: Etalon
2.40pm Doncaster: Ottizzini, Wyenot
3.00pm Cheltenham: Skyjack Hijack, Jet Blue (prom)
3.15pm Doncaster: Altobelli?, Jungle Jack?, Brucio (prom), Lily Du Berlais (prom), Lemoncello?
3.35pm Cheltenham: Sweet Fantasy, Wodhoo (prom), Pretending, Molto Bene (prom)
*************************************************
This is a small sample – and he has had a quiet season on the whole – but I thought I would flag that Longsdon had won with three of his last six runners, going into Friday’s racing.
And they copped at 20s, 14s and 5s, too.
It may not be a massive pointer to his Friday and weekend runners, but it ain’t no bad thing (his Friday runner was leading when falling at the fourth).
Realisation looks a menacing 7-1 chance for him in the 1.13pm at Cheltenham – I have had a little bit on him each way, with the stable form a factor in doing so – as well as Molto Bene in the 3.35pm (had a smaller each way bet on him, too)
Candlish has five runners today, notably Skyjack Hijack in the 3.00pm at Cheltenham.
She is having her best season yet – she had no winners from 17 runners in December last term – with 24 winners already in this campaign at a strike rate of 21 per cent.
She had two winners on Friday, and she is on the crest of a wave at the moment.
Good: Kim Bailey, Venetia Williams, Dan Skelton (back flying again, with three winners on Thursday), Nicky Henderson, Harry Fry, Olly Murphy, Henry Daly, Dianne Sayer, Paul Nicholls, Jamie Snowden, Jennie Candlish (double on Friday), Stuart Edmunds, Charlie Longsdon, Alan King, Greenall and Guerriero (three winners on Friday)
Fair: Nigel Twiston-Davies, Joe Tizzard, Gordon Elliott, Hobbs and White, Donald McCain (could do with more winners), Fergal O’Brien, Sam England, Anthony Honeyball, Christian Williams, Stuart Crawford (not many runners), Gary and Josh Moore (50-1 winner on Thursday), James Owen (winner on Friday), Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Ben Clarke (form tailing off a bit), Tom Symonds, Lucy Wadham (three seconds from last five runners)
Moderate: Evan Williams, Nick Alexander, Laura Morgan, Adrian Keatley (not many runners), Killahena and McPherson
Don’t know: Mel Rowley (20-1 winner on Friday – so i probably have a better idea now….), D Cottin (looks moderate from a small sample comprising big prices), Sheila Lewis, Nick Kent, Richard Hobson
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