TONY CALVIN: 10/1 shot in the opener can hopefully bounce out and not see another horse

From a betting point of view, there has been something entirely underwhelming about the ITV races at Goodwood so far, and it also looked like punters would have to be on weather watch on Day Two, as we were originally due a fair amount of rain to end the dry spell at some point on Wednesday.

It wouldn’t have been anywhere near as bad as last year, when The Goat won by 12 lengths in a monsoon, but it looks like the fast-ground horses have had a stay of execution as it is not set to arrive until Thursday now.

Punters love uniformity of ground, with no watering (the clerk said on Monday that he wouldn’t water until Wednesday evening, but watch that space, as he can’t be a big price to change his mind once trainers get in his ear), so there should be no excuse on that front, anyway.

So let’s kick on.

1.50pm – 10/1 shot overpriced to atone for recent Ascot defeat

When I tipped Killybegs Warrior in the opener on Tuesday, someone got in touch to say that he also fancied the horse but he was deliberating as to whether to back it because of the deteriorating form of the Charlie Johnston stable at big meetings.

“They’ve gone all of the Guineas, Dante, Derby, Royal Ascot, Eclipse and Newmarket July meetings this year without a winner.”

I must admit I hadn’t clocked that worrying statistic but, as I said in response, I did acknowledge in my copy that tipping horses from this yard comes with an acceptance that they often put in stinkers for seemingly no reason.

And perhaps Kingsley House simply doesn’t have the talent to shine on the big stage as regularly now, even in handicap company.

I am writing this before Killybegs Warrior has run, so hopefully he has already jumped out and made all – we can but dream – but surely Johnston’s Attila The Honey is overpriced regardless at the general [10/1], including with AK Bets.

She is [12/1] in a place, with a firm who are also offering four places, but I can’t be cherry-picking out-of-line price and place combos that few people can access.

So 10s win-only it is.

I want to play on the nose myself as there are doubts, not least the horse being drawn 12 of 12, but there are plenty of four-place options out there if you are so minded.

The draw clearly isn’t great for a horse that likes to go forward, but it could be that the lead is William Buick’s for the taking as, while three others in here have gone on in the past, none are habitual front-runners. See the pace maps below.

Attila The Honey was impressive when making all over an extended 1m5f at Newbury a fortnight ago and then followed up with a cracking second over 2m at Ascot last week.

Many thought she should have won, as Franny Norton looked to be playing silly buggers there, looking over his left shoulder when seemingly set to win – she traded at 1.1 in running – before Tactician stormed up his inside to get up in the closing stages.

I actually thought Tactician would have been an unlucky loser, given the trouble he met before getting up, but I take the view it is very strong form – there was another in-form horse close up in third and the fourth was 6 lengths away – and a 2lb rise for it doesn’t deter me.

Granted, the first three home did dominate the market beforehand.

She obviously steps back half a mile in trip here, so you have to think William Buick is going to bounce out from his wide draw and look to wind it up from the front.

Just tell the other jockeys to let you do that, William. They’ll be cool with it, as none of the others probably want to lead anyway.

This will be the filly’s third start within 14 days (another concern) but she has a progressive profile, and I think 10s adequately compensates for the doubts.

Both sire and dam loved firm ground, and Timeform called it good to firm when she dotted up at Newbury.

2.25pm – Ground a worry for early shortener Vetiver

We lost the German filly Armira early on Tuesday, though we still have a French representative in Sea Of Thieves.

I thought this 7f Group fillies and mares’ race was very difficult to call, though I did think Vetiver was a very fair price early doors, though her odds have shortened everywhere through Tuesday morning (the 25s was taken and the 20s and 18s were promptly taken, too).

The 16s is now available in just one place, and AK now go [12/1] from 20s.

However, Vetiver was pulled out on good to firm ground at Royal Ascot, so you imagine there must be a fair chance they will do the same here – it is currently good at Goodwood but it will be good to firm, and maybe a touch quicker, by race-time on Wednesday – which is a shame as she did it nicely enough at Chelmsford.

At this stage though, I have no plans to have a bet in the race, especially with the flash early prices now gone.

3.00pm – A Jaeger bomb of a race

Sixteen 2yos, spread across the track, over 5f at Goodwood, none of whom have run more than four times.

What is not to like?

Well, actually, quite a lot if you are a punter.

I appreciate everything in betting is about risk and reward, and in the final analysis every horse has its price that you should be backing it at, but I at least like to have some feel and affinity with a race.

And I am definitely not feeling it here.

If you wondered about the sub-header the race is sponsored by Jaeger-Lecoultre.

No, me neither, but a quick google search suggests if you have 50 bags of sand spare, you can buy yourself a rather nice Swiss watch.

So, at the least the sponsorship works on an association level – they will clock a rapid time over 5f here – if not on a betting one.

For me, at least.

3.35pm – A sexy Sussex but no betting interest here

What a race this is.  Or was. As Rosallion has just been pulled out with a respiratory infection at 11am on Tuesday morning.

We still have Royal Ascot runner-up Henry Longfellow, now [11/8] favourite with AKBets; the Guineas winner Notable Speech; the Dubai Turf scorer Facteur Cheval; the blinkered Queen Anne third Maljoom at a best-priced [9/1] with AK, though William Haggas is moderate when applying headgear (he is just 21-170  since 2009 with first-time blinkers); and top-flight handicapper Sonny Liston in here for the boilover at [22/1] with AKbets.

Who said I wasn’t Mr Positive?

And we could have a game of dawdle then sprint to add to the intrigue, as we saw in the SkyBet York Stakes last weekend, as again we have no obvious pace in here.

I think Notable Speech is the most talented horse in the line-up judged on 1 ½-length defeat of Rosallion, but this is your archetypal watch-no-bet race

4.10pm – Two to consider but the ground is a big worry for both

In the 4.10pm, There’s The Door is on the same mark as when winning this race last season and has been running well enough of late, so I thought the 25s in the marketplace about her was fair, as was the [22/1] with AKBets.

Of course, the reason she is that price is that last year’s success came on heavy ground and she seems to have a marked preference for plenty of dig, even if she did win on official good to firm at Haydock as a 2yo.

Unfortunately, similar comments apply to Mysterious Love, as I was even more tempted to side with her. She is 18s in a place, with 16s elsewhere.

Now, she comes here on the back of a very poor run at Newbury last time but that was over an extended 1m5f, so that is surely a run to ignore given the trip, and I am surprised the handicapper dropped her 2lb for it.

She made all when winning her maiden (on heavy) and I wouldn’t be in the least surprised if they reverted to forcing tactics here from trap two.

She is certainly well handicapped off 87 on her Group 3 exploits last summer, and she ran well off a 5lb higher mark than this at Epsom two starts ago.

However, all things considered, the ground does look a big no-no for both on all available evidence.

5.20pm – A Hieronymus Bosh?

No betting opinion in the 4.45pm (the 4s second favourite Xanthe has just been named a non-runner) so straight to the concluding 7f handicap at 5.20pm, a race in which history, and common sense, tells us that a low draw is important. Darkness has also just come out because of the ground, by the way.

I appreciate the market fully factors that in though, so there is a trade-off to be had. Not quite Chester-like, granted.

This is an incredibly tricky handicap but George Baker, who had a double on Monday, has two interesting outsiders in here in Hieronymus and Sir Winston, even if they are drawn 16 and 14 respectively. Both are [33/1] with AKbets.

The draw is a particular ballache for Hieronymus as he likes to lead and Nicola Currie (who has won twice on him) will have to perform miracles (and probably use up far too much petrol) to do that.

But maybe a forced change of tactics may be no bad thing for a horse who comes after looking jaded on his last three starts.

However, the handicapper has dropped him a whopping 9lb for those runs – he is an 8yo now, and the oldies get special treatment – and he is now 4lb lower than when a head second in this very race in 2021 (granted he was drawn three there).

I appreciate there are big negatives about him but I am personally going to bosh (sorry) a few quid on win-only on the exchanges close to the off – he will surely be trading in three figures – and the same applies to his stablemate Sir Winston.

He, too, is now handicapped to win and 7f on a downhill track on quick ground is his bag. I imagine he will also be a wild price near the off, but that’s the way I am playing it, if so.

Hopefully George’s rosy-red cheeks will be in the winners’ (or is it winner’s?) enclosure at the end of the day.

Good luck.

BETS

Attila The Honey at [10/1] in 1.50pm at Goodwood. Available in 15 places, including with AK Bets (12s in one place)

BALLOTED OUT HORSES

5.20pm: Telemark, Queen’s Reign, Tahitian Prince, Burdett, Dream of Mischief, Rockstar Icon, Diligent Resdev, Dark Dreamer

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR (for all Goodwood races)

David Menuisier blinkers 0-6 (since 2015)

Roger Varian hood 34-177 (2011)

Charlie Johnston visor 2-28 (2023); Charlie and Mark 0-7 (2022); Mark 0-92 (2009)

Richard Fahey cheekpieces 19-184 (2016)

William Haggas blinkers 21-170 (2009)

Marcus Tregoning cheekpieces 5-41 (2016)

Kevin Ryan blinkers 19-248 (2009)

George Baker cheekpieces 4-39 (2016)

M Al Attiya cheekpieces 0-0

GOING/WEATHER

GOODWOOD

GOING: Good

GOING STICK READINGS: 7.3 at 6.40am on Tuesday

WEATHER: Dry and fine Tuesday and Wednesday (at the moment)

PACE MAPS for ITV races

1.50pm Goodwood:  Attila The Honey, Gallantly?, French Duke?, Open Secret?

2.25pm Goodwood : Fair Angelica, Kathmandu

3.00pm Goodwood (limited evidence to go on):  Binadham, Fuji Mountain, King’s Call, Mr Lightside, Rock N Roll Rocket, Soldier’s Heart, Celandine, Usdi Atohi

3.35pm Goodwood: Someone is going to have to take the initiative here as no confirmed front-runner

TRAINERFORM for the four ITV races (does not include Tuesday’s racing)

EXCELLENT: Charlie Appleby. Adrian Keatley

GOOD: John and Thady Gosden, Aidan O’Brien, Roger Varian, Ed Walker, William Haggas, David Menuisier, Brian Meehan, Simon and Ed Crisford, Richard Spencer

FAIR: Richard Hughes (though needs a winner), Richard Hannon, Charlie Johnston (borderline moderate), Archie Watson, Ralph Beckett, Andrew Balding, David Simcock (could do with more winners), Richard Fahey, Owen Burrows, Alice Haynes (22-1 winner on Monday), Paul and Oliver Cole (not many runners), Mick Appleby, David Loughnane, Ollie Sangster, Donnacha O’Brien

MODERATE: Michael Bell, Kevin Ryan, John and Sean Quinn. Kevin Philippart De Foy, Declan Carroll

DON’T KNOW:  Mario Baratti (winner on Sunday), J Reynier