RONAN GROOME: Three tips for a quality opening to Navan Racing Festival

As I begin writing this preview, I feel the building in which I reside under some threat from a howling wind outside. Happy to take my chances, but the consistent rain that falls in this general area of Ireland is more of a concern, and sure enough, before I get to finish this very first paragraph, the inspection klaxon for tomorrow’s Navan meeting has just gone off. 

It’s the usual 7.30am time, so shortly after that I will find out if writing this piece was a complete waste of time. It may well be anyway, says you.

Let’s hope it does, not for the sake of my time, but for the opportunity to see some really top class jumpers. Lots of meetings at this time of the season can lay claim to mark the beginning of the jumps season but for me, this is where it begins in earnest. 

Down Royal you say? Down Royal is for Gordon Elliott. It’s unchallenged territory for Willie Mullins. And how could you claim  the start of the jumps season without the perennial champion who looks set to unleash some household names in the heart of the Royal County this weekend, such as Kopek Des Bordes, Final Demand and Dinoblue.

Of course, the Royal County is very much Elliott’s backyard. Even more so for owner Noel Moran, who like yours truly, is a St Patrick’s Classical School alumnus, and who loves nothing better than a win in front of his own. 

In the main two races on Saturday, he’ll see two of his best horses in The Yellow Clay (Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle – 2.10) and Found A Fifty (Grade 2 Fortria Chase – 2.45).

That latter mentioned contest is an excellent renewal, easily the best race of the weekend. The previous two Champion Chase winners make their return here alongside quality mare Dinoblue, and multiple Grade 1 winners Solness and the aforementioned Found A Fifty, who finished second and first here 12 months ago.

The quality is there for all to see, but as good a race as it is, it does look muddy given that of the above quintet, four are making their seasonal debut. 

Marine Nationale is in at 7/4, but that looks quite short to me. He was a wide margin winner of the Queen Mother, but he was aided by the jumping fallacies of his main rivals, and even 40/1 outsider Quilixios looked set to push him all the way before he exited proceedings at the final fence.

I’m not sure he’s as good as a rating of 170 says he is, and couple that with the fact that this is his seasonal debut – he was well below his best on his first run last season – and he looks quite short here.

Dinoblue will love the ground and at the ratings, she comes out favourably here, officially 10lbs inferior to Marine Nationale, but set to receive 11lbs. That said, I’m not quite sure she is as good as her assessment either, given her sole Grade 1 win was weak fare and she only really got going last term when she went back to face her own sex.

Captain Guinness at 5/1 or so looks too short given he is at the back end of his career and with the soft going very likely to tap too far into his stamina reserves – he’s always shaped as if 2m is his maximum trip.

And that brings me to hometown hero Found A Fifty, who can take on his rivals here with the aid of race fitness, but is a classy operator in his own right.

It was interesting that Elliott went to 3m with him for the Grade 1 in Down Royal. This is a trainer who goes up in trip as soon as he can with his chasers but elected to keep him to 2m-2m4f last term, which looked justified given his form – winning this race and also claiming the notable scalp of 2m4f specialist Saint Sam in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse, conceding weight to that Mullins rival in the process.

For sure he was certainly worth a go at 3m, and he was notably backed strongly on the day, but he just looked a blatant non-stayer when fading to fourth behind Envoi Allen. He should be much more at home now at 2m, with the heavy ground potentially accentuating his fitness advantage – and ability to stay 2m4f. A 6/1 this evening, I think he is a little overpriced.

Fitness angle also key for Jetara

Elliott and Moran will hope to already have a Grade 2 in the bag via The Yellow Clay in the Lismullen, but I’m not sure this gelding has the gilt-edged chance his price of 8/11 suggests. He was a top class novice at this trip last season and only just failed to land one of the strongest betting moves of the whole week at Cheltenham, when sent off 5/2 for the Baring Bingham, but finding The New Lion just too pacey late on.

The Stayers’ Hurdle is the ultimate target now, which backs up that above summary, and this looks a nice starting point for him, with soft ground no issue. However he does face a solid if not spectacular operator in stablemate Maxxum and the mare Jetara, and significantly must concede weight to both.

Jetara is rated 10lbs inferior, but will receive 8lbs, so she is right in this. She also has race fitness on side, having had three runs on the flat, while her last start at this discipline was a career best, a close-up third to Teahupoo in the Grade 1 Champion Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown.

The booking of Paul Townend, while being an obvious positive, is quite interesting as well. Townend has rarely taken outside rides over the last few years, whether that is of his own accord or a demand from Willie Mullins I’m not sure, but he has plenty of ground to make up on championship leader Darragh O’Keeffe, so looks to be adding quantity to his quality.

The other graded event on the day is the Grade 3 For Auction Novice Hurdle – 1.35. I’ll Sort That is favourite here for Declan Queally and he opposes Ma Jacks Hill again, having beaten that rival at Galway. I’m not sure about that form as both of those horses could well have been beaten by Welonlyhavedone had he not fell at the last, and that Gavin Cromwell-trained gelding didn’t exactly do wonders for the form when he was pulled up at Cheltenham today, albeit that run looked too bad to be true.

Theflyingking, another last flight faller on his previous run, was going to win comfortably at Down Royal and he would be interesting here, but the fact Kennedy rides stablemate Ma Jacks Hill isn’t exactly a positive, and perhaps a tell that this five-year-old will run on Sunday instead (declared for Monksfield Novice Hurdle, 2m4f).

There are better looking opportunities in the earlier handicap hurdles, most notably Lambay Island in the 2m contest at 1.00. This Henry de Bromhead-owned five-year-old was really strongly supported in the market for his handicap hurdle debut at Thurles last month, where he could only manage a close up third.

Still, he retains an attractive profile, with just five runs to his name, and now moving back in trip to 2m which could aid him. The strong market support certainly is a key sign, as it would be if it came again here, as a mark of 109 looks very workable.