Friendly fire spells danger for Team Ballydoyle in Irish Derby

There are two types of Irish Derby. The Irish Derby with the double-seeking champion from Epsom and the ones without. Five of the seven Derby doublers this century were trained by Aidan O’Brien and if told at the beginning of the season O’Brien would be successful again in Epsom, you’d have bet odds-on that his winner would be back to the Curragh this weekend.

That comes from a desire the Coolmore ‘lads’ to support their local, but by not running City Of Troy this week, they’ve arguably enhanced the race as a spectacle, and in so doing reverted the Derby to it’s other guise – classic compensation-seeking Epsom horses.

This century the 11 Irish Derby winners were gaining compensation after failing at Epsom and three of the last four that fit that profile were British-trained. With that in mind, it’s no surprise connections of Ambiente Friendly have opted to supplement their Derby runner-up at a cost of €100,000. 

Such a fee can often seem staunch to some, but in essence, it’s a fabulous bet when you consider the prize money for the race is just over €700,000. Owners, the Gredleys, are getting 6/1 about a general 5/4 shot here, with generous each-way terms thrown in as well, and plenty will have him shorter than that given how he travelled around the rollercoaster that is Epsom.

Having travelled sweetly into the race in the straight, his rider Rab Havlin received plenty of criticism from punters, most alleging he failed to see or indeed react fast enough to City Of Troy and Ryan Moore’s challenge on his inside, but even if that was the case, it was surely immaterial to the final result, with two and three quarter lengths between the pair on the line. 

More significantly with regards to this weekend, there was a bigger gap between Ambiente Friendly and Los Angeles, who was three and a quarter lengths back in third having outpaced earlier in the race. 

The flatter and more conventional plains of the Curragh seem likely to be more of a positive for Ambiente Friendly, who clearly has a few gears having previously quickened right away from his rivals in the Lingfield Derby Trial, while Los Angeles is bigger, burlier type who you wouldn’t be surprised to see in a St Leger later this season.

Of course there is a home-away factor here and undoubtedly Aidan O’Brien’s riders will have a plan best suited to their primary hope, but you’d like to think the Ambiente Friendly camp will be alive to this, especially from a pace perspective. 

The potential springer is Roger Varian’s Matsuri, a son of Sea The Stars who was in line to run in the Classic Trial at Sandown with a view to running at Epsom before he met a setback. He certainly caught the eye with an eight-length win at Leicester recently but needless to say, this is a big step up in class for him on only his fourth ever start.

Pretty Polly

The other featured Group 1 contest this weekend, the Pretty Polly Stakes on Saturday, looks set to be dominated by the raiding party as well, with Irish Oaks runner-up Bluestocking heading a strong party that includes Emily Upjohn, Stay Alert and Tasmania, a recruit from France for Sir Mark Prescott. 

Bluestocking is your likely favourite off the back of an excellent comeback win in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes and returning to the scene of her agonising miss in the Irish Oaks – Ryan Moore heroics on Savethelastdance robbing her of victory on the line. 

She is likely the one to beat but if she has unfinished business at the Curragh so has Hughie Morrison’s Stay Alert, who was the meat in a sandwich late on in this race last season, when the winner Via Sistina swerved to her left and caused a concertina affect on the three mares on her inside. A stewards enquiry was called but given the winning distance, the result was never going to be overturned, so connections will rightly have felt a little aggrieved.

Like Bluestocking, Stay Alert comes here off the back of a brilliant comeback run, having stayed on powerfully to surge past Running Lion in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket, form which looks a lot stronger now given the runner-up’s subsequent exploits at Royal Ascot. The juicy prices may have gone, but 11/2 looks a fair offering, especially with second favourite Emily Upjohn having plenty to prove after her disappointing effort in the Coronation Stakes last time.