JULY CUP: Can Inisherin conquer his elders at Newmarket?

AK Bets betting for the July Cup

Art Power: Seven-year-old scored elusive first Group 1 at the 15th attempt when taking Champions Sprint at Ascot last October but has regressed slightly on three runs this season, the latest when second last in Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee. He needs more rain than is forecast and even at that he may still struggle.

Khaadem: Remarkably defended his title in Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee when snubbed by his winning partner last season Jamie Spencer in favour of same connections’ Mitbaahy. Came on to finish slightly unlucky fifth to Shaquille in this race 12 months ago, so no reason why he can’t run well again at a big price.

Kinross: Dual Group 1 winner should strip fitter for comeback effort at Newcastle (second to Montaasib – Group 3 6f) and now bidding to go two better than run here last season. Well documented preference for softer ground and trainer set to walk track beforehand, but class act on his day and deserves respect.

Mill Stream: Nose second off a mark of 99 in a handicap over this course and distance at this meeting last season but progressed into Group 1 sprinter since, coming into this off the back off career best when third to Khaadem at Ascot. Showing all the hallmarks of a progressive older sprinter now and no surprise if he shows up again at the business end.

Mitbaahy: Disappointing effort behind stablemate Khaadem (closing seventh after usual slow start) but both trainer and jockey offered excuses, the former suggesting the good to firm surface was against him. All things considered, he did well to finish as close as he did, and likely easier ground should help him now. 

Swingalong: Likeable filly showed her prowess for this trip when 66/1 third to Shaquille in Commonwealth Cup just over a year ago, before twice running well in defeat when fourth to Regional in Sprint Cup and filling the same position behind Art Power in Champions Sprint. Looks better this year, with evidence to support that statement provided by excellent close second to Khaadem in Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes – a clear career best.

Vadream: Rock solid mare outran odds of 100/1 when fifth to Khaadem at Ascot last time but likely has a similarly tough ask here, not least with the added threat of the three-year-olds. Struggled with that test here 12 months ago and she returns a lower rated horse.

Inisherin: Come from nowhere to get to the top of the tree for three-year-old sprinters, having only broke his maiden at Newcastle in March. May have failed to stay in the Guineas but ran a fine race in sixth whatever the case before an impressive win in the Sandy Lane bolstered connections to supplement for the Commonwealth Cup. He duly delivered there with an emphatic win – had Jasour well held back in third – and looks capable of better again.

Jasour: Announced himself on this date exactly a year ago when running out an impressive winner of Group 2 July Stakes. Disappointed thereafter, looking outclassed at Group 1 level in Prix Morny and Middle Park but much better on first run at three, winning Commonwealth Cup Trial before finishing third in that ultimate target. Has 2.5l to find with Inisherin but return to this course and distance looks a positive.

River Tiber: Last year’s Coventry winner made a belated but promising return when third to Rosallion in the Irish 2000 Guineas, especially when beforehand his trainer had been touting him as a Commonwealth Cup horse. With that in mind it was a slight surprise he went for the Jersey (7f) and possibly more surprising to see him disappoint behind Haatem there (8th, beaten 5l), who had finished just ahead of him in the Curragh. Back to 6f now but has a little to prove class-wise, not to mention he was well held twice by Vandeek at Group 1 level over this trip last season.

Vandeek: Prix Morny and Middle Park wins highlighted superb unbeaten juvenile campaign last term but first half of this season has been forgetful – well held behind Inisherin on comeback in Sandy Lane (soft ground possibly not suiting) and then missing Commonwealth Cup (abnormal blood count). Gets a chance on good ground now but the setback is hardly ideal and even if at his best, he may not be able to reverse form with the coming force of Inisherin.

Conclusion

Since the arrival of the Commonwealth Cup in 2015, campaigns for three-year-old sprinters have been made easier and the complexion of this race has changed, with the classic generation successful five times since in the last 10 renewals. Pre Commonwealth Cup, there had only been four three-year-old winners since the turn of the millennium. Muhaarar and Shaquille are the only two horses to do the double, but the market has consistently favoured an impressive Commonwealth Cup winner here, with the likes of Perfect Power, Dragon Symbol, Golden Horde all 7/2 or shorter. Bar Muhaarar, all the three-year-olds mentioned above were rated between 116 and 118, so we have a pretty typical proposition in Inisherin, a 117-rated Commonwealth Cup winner. A price of 7/4 looks a little short for what will be a step into the unknown against his elders, for all that he looks progressive. Vandeek is actually the top rated horse in the race but he has lots to prove after a disastrous first half of the season. If you’re taking a view that the top of the market is a little overrated, there has to be opportunities further down the market. Mill Stream and Swingalong make appeal, but any price over 18/1 looks interesting about Mitbaahy. Connections were very quick to excuse a somewhat disappointing effort at Ascot and this track could suit him well with plenty of pace on early.

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