GEORGE ELEK: Win-To-Nil winter can continue in the Championship on Sunday

Swansea City host Leeds United at 3pm on Sunday, live on the box.

Will there be fireworks? Not if it goes to form. Swansea’s seven home games have seen just 10 goals, while Leeds’ seven away games total 1.5 goals per game on average? Ugh.

Between the previous two international breaks, Leeds won all four home games cozily but could only draw one and lose one away from home, without scoring. Despite winning only twice in seven away from home in the Championship, their underlying performance data on their travels is still the strongest in the division. I’ve been adamant that Leeds are the strongest team in the division since before a ball was kicked, and I’m yet to find a strong reason to waver from that belief.

Swansea are hard to nail down – they’re in the top half of the table despite losing more games than they’ve won and scoring only 11 goals in 15 games. The reason for their decent league position is their defensive record: just 10 goals conceded in 15 games, Swans haven’t conceded more than one goal in a league game this season. Their saving grace (literally) has been Lawrence Vigouroux. The keeper is having an incredible season and leads the Championship in all shot-stopping metrics.

In attack, it’s a tough watch. They lack individual brilliance in the final third, and find it tough to break down resolute defences. They don’t get much more sturdy than Leeds, who have kept nine clean sheets in their last 14 games and only face seven shots a match away from home, the fewest in the league.

Swansea are a team that like to try and dominate possession and territory, which I feel could play into Leeds’ hands. With a group of attacking midfielders and wingers containing the speed and precision of players like Willy Gnonto, Dan James, Largie Ramazani and Brenden Aaronson, plus one or both of Mateo Joseph and Joel Piroe to finish chances, Leeds can be absolutely deadly when given the chance to counter attack at speed.

Given Swansea’s issues generating and finishing chances, plus Leeds’ defensive strength and ability to hurt possession-hungry teams on the break, there’s still some juice to squeeze out of our old friend ‘Leeds Win To Nil’. Two away wins in seven games this season doesn’t reflect their perfectly strong level of performance on the road. If they maintain their recent levels, a win and a clean sheet feels achievable and good value at 19/10.

Selection

Leeds win to nil @ 19/10